Both plays are for 2 units.
Toronto +123 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators have one of the best lines in the NHL in Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris and Mark Stone. They also have the best offensive defenseman in the game as well. The Sens also made what has to be considered a decent swap when they picked up the hard working and talented Derick Brassard for the talented but not so much hard-working Mika Zibanejad. Other than that, this is the same Ottawa squad as last year. A year older perhaps but it’s the same team that was a puck possession mess, that gave the puck away far too often and that was unable to protect leads. They are a top-heavy team with a weak defense so anytime they’re favored, at least in the early going, we are happy to fade them.
Mike Babcock and the rest of the Maple Leafs brass is calling this year two of the rebuild. We’re not entirely convinced of that. We’re convinced the rebuild is over especially after drafting first overall this past summer.
Toronto ranked dead last in several luck-driven stats last year. They lost a lot of one-goal games, had a 7.6 shooting percentage as a team, and also had the worst PDO in the league (a metric that combines save and shooting percentages to serve as a proxy for puck luck). Some of their bad luck metrics was due to injuries, but for the most part, the Leafs were on the wrong end of fortune last year. We took a look at every team since 2010 that finished between 48.5-51.5 in score-adjusted Corsi for percentage -- a range where Toronto fell last season -- and finished in the bottom five in the standings, and looked at where they ended up in the following season. For these teams that were middle of the road in terms of puck control and scoring chances, they ended up finishing middle of the road in the standings the following season, jumping on average nine spots in the standings. Toronto is notably unique as being a team that finished dead last while still having a score-adjusted Corsi of more than 50 percent. A big improvement this year is inevitable. ‘
From the point that the Leafs traded Phil Kessel two summers ago, this has been an organization going all-in on young talent; accordingly, their roster is bursting at the seams with youth and talent. The Leafs' farm team last season, the Toronto Marlies, was among the most exciting and well-run AHL teams ever seen. The amount of resources the Leafs put into their AHL team by choice (and because they're one of the few organizations who can afford to do so) was greater than most of the league by a wide margin. William Nylander would have been a top candidate for the AHL MVP if he had played a full season, and they had other quality prospects who impressed, such as Kasperi Kapanen, Brendan Leipsic and Connor Brown, among others. Mitch Marner was the Ontario Hockey League MVP of the regular season and he earned the same recognition for the OHL postseason. Other players like Jeremy Bracco, Dmytro Timashov, Andrew Nielsen and Martins Dzierkals were among the Canadian Hockey League's top scorers, while Travis Demott was one of the best defensemen in the OHL. The point is, many of those aforementioned players will be playing for the big club this season and in order to make it, they all had to beat out several other very talented players.
The people running the organization are top of the line at every part of the front office. Their talent outside the NHL ranks is an embarrassment of riches. Give guys like Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner, Leo Komarov and Morgan Rielly all that young talent to play with and they are set up to thrive. We also love the addition of Matt Martin, a former fan favorite for the Islanders because of his work ethic and grit.
Despite having the worst record in the NHL a year ago, Toronto was a tough out nearly every single night. They have upgraded in goal, they are still likely to be a strong possession team and no team is going to work harder or have a greater desire to win. There will be some growing pains for sure but Toronto has built a foundation to not only end the rebuild, but possibly end the use of that term among Leafs' fans for a lengthy period of time. The rebuild is over and we are all going to get the first taste of that tonight. The window to buy low on the Maple Leafs will not be open for long. Get in while you can.
Calgary +104 over EDMONTON
OT included. It seems every year that it is going to be “the year” the Oilers turn it around. Edmonton made some major moves this summer but GM Peter Chiarelli has come under fire for trading the very popular Taylor Hall to New Jersey for defenseman Adam Larsson. While Larsson is a nice piece, he's only one man and one man alone cannot solve the Oilers defensive struggles. The Oilers were fifth in shots allowed last season, giving up over 31 per game. Edmonton does have some world class players but they do not have the depth needed to be successful night in and night out. The Oilers are trying desperately to overcome their culture of losing and while they are on the right track, they will not make major progress without stabilizing their defense. Being value bettors, the Oilers will offer up some when they are taking back a tag but until they show us something else, we are early sellers on this outfit when they’re favored. That's the case tonight, as the Oil get ready to open their brand new arena against their provincial rivals.
The Calgary Flames had the worst goaltenders in the league last season and it was not close. When you roll out the likes of Kari Ramo, Jonas Hiller, Joni Ortio and Nik Backstrom, it totally messes with the mindset of everyone on that bench. Flames General Manager Brad Treliving made sure he put his stamp on this team over the summer by firing Coach Bob Hartley and replacing him with Glen Gulutzan. Next, Treliving made a splash at the draft when he traded for workhorse Brian Elliott to man the net and then signed the very solid Chad Johnson to fill their backup roll. After shoring up their goaltending, the Flames were tasked with signing the very popular and talented Johnny Gaudreau, who missed most of training camp but is now signed, sealed and ready to deliver the goods. The Flames have one of the best defensive units in the league. Mark Giordano is an elite defenseman that other teams only dream about. T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton and Dennis Wideman round out a very solid top-four that probably every GM in the NHL would trade their top-four defensemen for straight up in a heartbeat.
Last season, the Flames were a promising team utterly undone by wildly erratic goaltending. Soft goals are mentally deflating and when they happen all season long, it takes a toll. Goal-scoring is not a weakness of these Flames and the addition of Troy Brouwer gives them one of those priceless role players that every team needs. At the very least, Calgary’s greatly improved goaltending and defensive zone play is going to make them a difficult out almost every game. We’re early buyers on the Flames and we’ll put that to the test right off the bat.
Toronto +123 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators have one of the best lines in the NHL in Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris and Mark Stone. They also have the best offensive defenseman in the game as well. The Sens also made what has to be considered a decent swap when they picked up the hard working and talented Derick Brassard for the talented but not so much hard-working Mika Zibanejad. Other than that, this is the same Ottawa squad as last year. A year older perhaps but it’s the same team that was a puck possession mess, that gave the puck away far too often and that was unable to protect leads. They are a top-heavy team with a weak defense so anytime they’re favored, at least in the early going, we are happy to fade them.
Mike Babcock and the rest of the Maple Leafs brass is calling this year two of the rebuild. We’re not entirely convinced of that. We’re convinced the rebuild is over especially after drafting first overall this past summer.
Toronto ranked dead last in several luck-driven stats last year. They lost a lot of one-goal games, had a 7.6 shooting percentage as a team, and also had the worst PDO in the league (a metric that combines save and shooting percentages to serve as a proxy for puck luck). Some of their bad luck metrics was due to injuries, but for the most part, the Leafs were on the wrong end of fortune last year. We took a look at every team since 2010 that finished between 48.5-51.5 in score-adjusted Corsi for percentage -- a range where Toronto fell last season -- and finished in the bottom five in the standings, and looked at where they ended up in the following season. For these teams that were middle of the road in terms of puck control and scoring chances, they ended up finishing middle of the road in the standings the following season, jumping on average nine spots in the standings. Toronto is notably unique as being a team that finished dead last while still having a score-adjusted Corsi of more than 50 percent. A big improvement this year is inevitable. ‘
From the point that the Leafs traded Phil Kessel two summers ago, this has been an organization going all-in on young talent; accordingly, their roster is bursting at the seams with youth and talent. The Leafs' farm team last season, the Toronto Marlies, was among the most exciting and well-run AHL teams ever seen. The amount of resources the Leafs put into their AHL team by choice (and because they're one of the few organizations who can afford to do so) was greater than most of the league by a wide margin. William Nylander would have been a top candidate for the AHL MVP if he had played a full season, and they had other quality prospects who impressed, such as Kasperi Kapanen, Brendan Leipsic and Connor Brown, among others. Mitch Marner was the Ontario Hockey League MVP of the regular season and he earned the same recognition for the OHL postseason. Other players like Jeremy Bracco, Dmytro Timashov, Andrew Nielsen and Martins Dzierkals were among the Canadian Hockey League's top scorers, while Travis Demott was one of the best defensemen in the OHL. The point is, many of those aforementioned players will be playing for the big club this season and in order to make it, they all had to beat out several other very talented players.
The people running the organization are top of the line at every part of the front office. Their talent outside the NHL ranks is an embarrassment of riches. Give guys like Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner, Leo Komarov and Morgan Rielly all that young talent to play with and they are set up to thrive. We also love the addition of Matt Martin, a former fan favorite for the Islanders because of his work ethic and grit.
Despite having the worst record in the NHL a year ago, Toronto was a tough out nearly every single night. They have upgraded in goal, they are still likely to be a strong possession team and no team is going to work harder or have a greater desire to win. There will be some growing pains for sure but Toronto has built a foundation to not only end the rebuild, but possibly end the use of that term among Leafs' fans for a lengthy period of time. The rebuild is over and we are all going to get the first taste of that tonight. The window to buy low on the Maple Leafs will not be open for long. Get in while you can.
Calgary +104 over EDMONTON
OT included. It seems every year that it is going to be “the year” the Oilers turn it around. Edmonton made some major moves this summer but GM Peter Chiarelli has come under fire for trading the very popular Taylor Hall to New Jersey for defenseman Adam Larsson. While Larsson is a nice piece, he's only one man and one man alone cannot solve the Oilers defensive struggles. The Oilers were fifth in shots allowed last season, giving up over 31 per game. Edmonton does have some world class players but they do not have the depth needed to be successful night in and night out. The Oilers are trying desperately to overcome their culture of losing and while they are on the right track, they will not make major progress without stabilizing their defense. Being value bettors, the Oilers will offer up some when they are taking back a tag but until they show us something else, we are early sellers on this outfit when they’re favored. That's the case tonight, as the Oil get ready to open their brand new arena against their provincial rivals.
The Calgary Flames had the worst goaltenders in the league last season and it was not close. When you roll out the likes of Kari Ramo, Jonas Hiller, Joni Ortio and Nik Backstrom, it totally messes with the mindset of everyone on that bench. Flames General Manager Brad Treliving made sure he put his stamp on this team over the summer by firing Coach Bob Hartley and replacing him with Glen Gulutzan. Next, Treliving made a splash at the draft when he traded for workhorse Brian Elliott to man the net and then signed the very solid Chad Johnson to fill their backup roll. After shoring up their goaltending, the Flames were tasked with signing the very popular and talented Johnny Gaudreau, who missed most of training camp but is now signed, sealed and ready to deliver the goods. The Flames have one of the best defensive units in the league. Mark Giordano is an elite defenseman that other teams only dream about. T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton and Dennis Wideman round out a very solid top-four that probably every GM in the NHL would trade their top-four defensemen for straight up in a heartbeat.
Last season, the Flames were a promising team utterly undone by wildly erratic goaltending. Soft goals are mentally deflating and when they happen all season long, it takes a toll. Goal-scoring is not a weakness of these Flames and the addition of Troy Brouwer gives them one of those priceless role players that every team needs. At the very least, Calgary’s greatly improved goaltending and defensive zone play is going to make them a difficult out almost every game. We’re early buyers on the Flames and we’ll put that to the test right off the bat.
