[h=1]How to bet Denver-San Diego[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 6 games, starting with Thursday night's Denver-San Diego matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers[/h]Spread: Opened Denver -2.5; now Denver -3 (-120)
Total: Opened 44.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Denver
Public perception: The defending champions are clearly the more public team. Last week's loss to Atlanta hasn't slowed that, even with head coach Gary Kubiak taking the week off -- especially with Trevor Siemian back at QB after the loss with Paxton Lynch. In addition, the public isn't likely to back the Chargers, who keep blowing leads.
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Wiseguys' view: The sharps jumped on Denver -2.5 when the line first opened, but it has been more split at 3. Some books have gone to 3.5 (with -120 to take the Chargers +3.5), but if the public continues to back the Broncos, we should expect more sharps to take the Chargers at +3.5 (-110).
Dave Tuley's take: The Chargers are 1-4, but they are 3-2 ATS and could easily be 4-1 or even 5-0. Granted, it's their own fault (shared by players and coaches) for squandering late leads. While it's scary to trust a team that keeps failing in the clutch, they've been competitive in every game and I expect them to do the same at home in prime time on Thursday night.
San Diego's offense is No. 7 in yards per game (and averaging 30.4 points). Although they take a step up in class against Denver's No. 9 defensive unit, the Chargers should be able to keep up with a Denver team that's only No. 20 in offense and dealing with the return of Siemian on a short week, plus being without Kubiak's playcalling. For our purposes here, I'll take the Chargers +3 (EVEN), but I'll personally be waiting to see if we can get +3.5. I certainly don't expect the Chargers to shut down the Broncos, so I also lean to the over as it seems the total has been set a little low with the Chargers 4-1 to the over and the Broncos 3-2.
The pick: Chargers +3 (EVEN)* (lean to over 45)
Rufus Peabody: The Chargers continued their good play -- and not getting rewarded for it -- in Oakland on Sunday, losing 34-31 despite outplaying the Raiders.
According to my metrics, the Chargers were fundamentally six points better than Oakland -- looking at the stats that are predictive -- but they blew a lead and lost their fourth nail-biter in five games, due in large part to a -3 turnover differential.Philip Rivers put up huge numbers, throwing for 359 yards on only 30 pass attempts. The Massey-Peabody model ranks San Diego 14th in the NFL, but the market is not nearly as high on the Chargers due to their 1-4 record. I think the market has the wrong team favored here, as Massey-Peabody makes the Chargers a 1.5-point favorite.
Pick: San Diego +3/+3.5
Massey-Peabody line: San Diego -1.5
Erin Rynning:
No question that the Broncos' outstanding defense will be the best unit on the field Thursday night. More so, this Denver stop-unit especially excels against the passing game, which presents a sturdy challenge to Philip Rivers. Of course, the Chargers will be without offensive difference-makersKeenan Allen and Danny Woodhead for the remainder of the season. Note that the Chargers have faced the Saints, Raiders and Colts in their previous three games. This Broncos defense is on an entirely different level. Meanwhile, the Denver offense is still very much a work in progress. Still, Denver is desperately inexperienced at quarterback. The offense is below average -- especially so, given that they've actually faced poor defenses (combined to rank in the bottom 10).
Recommendation: UNDER
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 6 games, starting with Thursday night's Denver-San Diego matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Total: Opened 44.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Denver
Public perception: The defending champions are clearly the more public team. Last week's loss to Atlanta hasn't slowed that, even with head coach Gary Kubiak taking the week off -- especially with Trevor Siemian back at QB after the loss with Paxton Lynch. In addition, the public isn't likely to back the Chargers, who keep blowing leads.
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Wiseguys' view: The sharps jumped on Denver -2.5 when the line first opened, but it has been more split at 3. Some books have gone to 3.5 (with -120 to take the Chargers +3.5), but if the public continues to back the Broncos, we should expect more sharps to take the Chargers at +3.5 (-110).
Dave Tuley's take: The Chargers are 1-4, but they are 3-2 ATS and could easily be 4-1 or even 5-0. Granted, it's their own fault (shared by players and coaches) for squandering late leads. While it's scary to trust a team that keeps failing in the clutch, they've been competitive in every game and I expect them to do the same at home in prime time on Thursday night.
San Diego's offense is No. 7 in yards per game (and averaging 30.4 points). Although they take a step up in class against Denver's No. 9 defensive unit, the Chargers should be able to keep up with a Denver team that's only No. 20 in offense and dealing with the return of Siemian on a short week, plus being without Kubiak's playcalling. For our purposes here, I'll take the Chargers +3 (EVEN), but I'll personally be waiting to see if we can get +3.5. I certainly don't expect the Chargers to shut down the Broncos, so I also lean to the over as it seems the total has been set a little low with the Chargers 4-1 to the over and the Broncos 3-2.
The pick: Chargers +3 (EVEN)* (lean to over 45)
Rufus Peabody: The Chargers continued their good play -- and not getting rewarded for it -- in Oakland on Sunday, losing 34-31 despite outplaying the Raiders.
According to my metrics, the Chargers were fundamentally six points better than Oakland -- looking at the stats that are predictive -- but they blew a lead and lost their fourth nail-biter in five games, due in large part to a -3 turnover differential.Philip Rivers put up huge numbers, throwing for 359 yards on only 30 pass attempts. The Massey-Peabody model ranks San Diego 14th in the NFL, but the market is not nearly as high on the Chargers due to their 1-4 record. I think the market has the wrong team favored here, as Massey-Peabody makes the Chargers a 1.5-point favorite.
Pick: San Diego +3/+3.5
Massey-Peabody line: San Diego -1.5
Erin Rynning:
No question that the Broncos' outstanding defense will be the best unit on the field Thursday night. More so, this Denver stop-unit especially excels against the passing game, which presents a sturdy challenge to Philip Rivers. Of course, the Chargers will be without offensive difference-makersKeenan Allen and Danny Woodhead for the remainder of the season. Note that the Chargers have faced the Saints, Raiders and Colts in their previous three games. This Broncos defense is on an entirely different level. Meanwhile, the Denver offense is still very much a work in progress. Still, Denver is desperately inexperienced at quarterback. The offense is below average -- especially so, given that they've actually faced poor defenses (combined to rank in the bottom 10).
Recommendation: UNDER
