[h=1]How to bet New York-Arizona[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 6 games, including Monday night's New York-Arizona matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Spread: Opened Arizona -7.5; now Arizona -7.5
Total: Opened 47; now 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Arizona
Public perception: The public is on the Cardinals (with Carson Palmer back in the lineup), but the pick percentage was much higher when the line was Arizona -7 earlier in the weekend. The Jets have lost a lot of public confidence with their three-game losing streak.
Wiseguys' view: This is mostly a sharps vs. squares game with the wiseguys on the Jets (especially at +7.5), however, some sharps sided with the Cardinals at -7. In fact, this is a very popular teaser play for sharps and squares alike and the books could have a lot of liability on this game if other popular teasers keep tickets alive on Sunday (primarily Patriots and Steelers, but also Seahawks, Bills and Titans).
Dave Tuley's take: The Jets' losses have come to the Chiefs, Seahawks and Steelers, so a lot of teams would struggle with that schedule. The Cardinals lost to the Patriots in their season opener, but they've also lost to the Bills (a team that the Jets beat in Week 2) and the Rams, so they haven't been playing much better and I don't believe they should be favored by more than a touchdown. In fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings that I'm part of here at ESPN Chalk has the Jets as a value play for the same reason.
The pick: Jets +7.5*.
Rufus Peabody: Despite their 1-4 record, the Massey-Peabody model still rates the Jets one-tenth of a point better than an average team. That's due in part to our expectation going into the season (they rated as 2.3 points better than average to start the year), but they've also played better than their record would indicate. Three of their five games have been on the road, and four of the five games have been against teams that made the playoffs last year. Despite losing by 18 in Pittsburgh last week, New York was only 4.5 points worse than the Steelers, when grading out the game based on what is predictive. Palmer is expected to start for Arizona, but I still only make the Cardinals a 5.5-point favorite. The Jets are a pick at +7.5, and a lean at +7.
Pick: New York Jets +7.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Arizona -5.5; total: 48.2
Erin Rynning: The defense is actually leading the way for the Cardinals in the early season as the offense is yet to hit its stride. It might be awhile, as they'll be without to key offensive lineman on Monday night in Evan Mathis andMike Iupati. Of course, in a Bruce Arians offense the protection is crucial for his quarterback to take deep drops. With the Jets rugged defensive line and Carson Palmer behind center, New York's stop-unit should have success. Again, the Cardinals defense has done the job, while especially solid against the pass. That's not a positive sign for Ryan Fitzpatrick and a struggling passing game. Look for a lower-scoring game than expected.
Pick: Under at 45.5 or greater
Mike Clay
Prediction: Arizona 27, New York Jets 19
The pick: Under --- 46.5
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 6 games, including Monday night's New York-Arizona matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Total: Opened 47; now 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Arizona
Public perception: The public is on the Cardinals (with Carson Palmer back in the lineup), but the pick percentage was much higher when the line was Arizona -7 earlier in the weekend. The Jets have lost a lot of public confidence with their three-game losing streak.
Wiseguys' view: This is mostly a sharps vs. squares game with the wiseguys on the Jets (especially at +7.5), however, some sharps sided with the Cardinals at -7. In fact, this is a very popular teaser play for sharps and squares alike and the books could have a lot of liability on this game if other popular teasers keep tickets alive on Sunday (primarily Patriots and Steelers, but also Seahawks, Bills and Titans).
Dave Tuley's take: The Jets' losses have come to the Chiefs, Seahawks and Steelers, so a lot of teams would struggle with that schedule. The Cardinals lost to the Patriots in their season opener, but they've also lost to the Bills (a team that the Jets beat in Week 2) and the Rams, so they haven't been playing much better and I don't believe they should be favored by more than a touchdown. In fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings that I'm part of here at ESPN Chalk has the Jets as a value play for the same reason.
The pick: Jets +7.5*.
Rufus Peabody: Despite their 1-4 record, the Massey-Peabody model still rates the Jets one-tenth of a point better than an average team. That's due in part to our expectation going into the season (they rated as 2.3 points better than average to start the year), but they've also played better than their record would indicate. Three of their five games have been on the road, and four of the five games have been against teams that made the playoffs last year. Despite losing by 18 in Pittsburgh last week, New York was only 4.5 points worse than the Steelers, when grading out the game based on what is predictive. Palmer is expected to start for Arizona, but I still only make the Cardinals a 5.5-point favorite. The Jets are a pick at +7.5, and a lean at +7.
Pick: New York Jets +7.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Arizona -5.5; total: 48.2
Erin Rynning: The defense is actually leading the way for the Cardinals in the early season as the offense is yet to hit its stride. It might be awhile, as they'll be without to key offensive lineman on Monday night in Evan Mathis andMike Iupati. Of course, in a Bruce Arians offense the protection is crucial for his quarterback to take deep drops. With the Jets rugged defensive line and Carson Palmer behind center, New York's stop-unit should have success. Again, the Cardinals defense has done the job, while especially solid against the pass. That's not a positive sign for Ryan Fitzpatrick and a struggling passing game. Look for a lower-scoring game than expected.
Pick: Under at 45.5 or greater
Mike Clay
Prediction: Arizona 27, New York Jets 19
The pick: Under --- 46.5
