Week 6 NFL betting recap
Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS - These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Sunday game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory but the other one rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost that game and crying "bad beat!" And, of course, there are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games. We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 6 action (plus Thursday's game).
There wasn't a clear-cut, obvious "bad beat" in the NFL all day Sunday (though the Chicago Bears' loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars is listed below) until the night game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans -- though it's technically a "bad push" for Colts +3 backers, while the under was also a bad beat.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
Bad Beats (clearly wrong sides)
Indianapolis (+3) in 26-23 overtime road loss at Houston
The Colts jumped out to a 13-0 lead and then went up 23-9 with 7:12 left in regulation, so they were clearly the right side most of the night. However, the Texans scored two TDs in the final 2:37 without needing an onside kick to force overtime. Nick Novak kicked the winning 33-yard field goal with 8:13 left in overtime to make Indy bettors settle for a push. Under 48 was an even more obvious bad beat as the Colts led 13-9 after three quarters but then 27 points were scored the rest of the way. If it had been a scoreless overtime resulting in a 23-23 tie, the under still could have cashed, but it went over on Novak's winning kick. My biggest takeaway was going to be that the Houston looked really inept on offense (and against a porous Colts' defense, too) and Brock Osweiler looked lost at times, but then Osweiler and the Texans certainly came through in the clutch so I'll reserve judgment to see if they build on this victory.
Chicago (-2.5) in 17-16 loss to Jacksonville
The Bears were in complete control of this game and still led 13-0 heading into the fourth quarter until the Jacksonville offense finally woke up. The Jaguars finally got on the board on a Chris Ivory 1-yard TD run with 14:50 play and the Bears still led 16-10 after the two teams traded field goals, but Jacksonville completed the comeback with Blake Bortles' 51-yard TD pass toArrelious Benn with 2:49 to play (after the cornerback slipped). The under was never in doubt, but I'm not ready to upgrade either defense (and while the Bears were pitching a shutout for three quarters, that was only because the Jaguars squandered a goal-to-go chance in the first half that ended in an interception on a deflected pass).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Based on the fundamentals, Jacksonville was expected to beat Chicago by 9.
Easy Covers (clearly right sides)
Thursday: San Diego (+3) in 21-13 home upset of Denver
The Chargers scored on a 7-minute drive to open the game and never looked back. In fact, the Broncos didn't score until 5:40 left in the first half and only after a muffed punt set up a short field (and they were still only able to manage a FG). San Diego led 21-3 in the fourth quarter and the Broncos scored 10 points to make it interesting as they also recovered an onside kick and threw a Hail Mary at the end, but the Chargers avoided another bad beat. My biggest takeaway is a mixture of thinking the Chargers' defense really stepped up (though giving up 10 fourth-quarter points isn't encouraging) and that the league might be figuring outTrevor Siemian.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Diego over Denver by 4.
Dolphins (+7.5) in 30-15 home win over Pittsburgh
The Steelers never led by more than the spread. They did take an 8-3 lead on Darrius Heyward-Bey's 60-yard run with 5:39 left in the first quarter and added the two-point conversion, so it looked like they might be off and running, but Miami scored 20 unanswered points to take control. My biggest takeaway was that for whatever reason, the Steelers aren't traveling well: This was their second disappointing performance on both sides of the ball as a road favorite (they lost 34-3 at Philadelphia in Week 3).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Miami over Pittsburgh by 12.
Buffalo (-7.5) in 45-16 home win over San Francisco
Even though Colin Kaepernick had the 49ers up 10-7 and within 14-13 until late in the first half, the Bills were mostly in control and then pulled away in the second half. The Bills finally featured LeSean McCoy (140 yards, 3 rushing TDs) like I've been saying since the preseason, and it's apparent the 49ers really miss NaVorro Bowman in the middle of their defense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Buffalo over San Francisco by 10.
Washington (+3) in 27-20 home win over Philadelphia
The Redskins jumped out to a 14-0 lead, and even though the Eagles fought back to make it 14-14 onMalcolm Jenkins' 64-yard INT return with 3:55 left before halftime, the Redskins responded with a 13-play, 75-yard TD drive to lead 21-14 at halftime and held on in the second half. The Eagles' defense, which earned such high praise early in the season, got shredded for 493 yards and looks like it was overrated.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington over Philadelphia by 1.
New Orleans (+3) in 41-38 home win over Carolina
The Saints jumped out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter. The Panthers rallied and actually tied it at 38-38 with 2:58 left, but the Saints drove for the winning field goal. The Panthers' defense continues to be a shadow of its former self. Of course, we haven't trusted the Saints' defense for a couple of years.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New Orleans over Carolina by 1.
Kansas City (-2) in 26-10 win at Oakland
The Raiders scored a TD on their opening drive, but the Chiefs went ahead 13-7 by midway through the second quarter and were covering the rest of the way. The big takeaway is to not bet against Andy Reid off of a bye week (he's 16-2 SU in his career), but more than that the Chiefs played a complete game, shutting down the Raiders' potent offense and having a balanced offense withSpencer Ware running for 131 yards and a TD and Alex Smith adding 224 yards and a TD pass.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Kansas City over Oakland by 15.
Dallas (+5) in 30-16 road win at Green Bay
The Packers never led in this one. They were within 7-6 early in the second quarter but the Cowboys pulled ahead by 17-6 at halftime and coasted from there. Everyone is talking about the Cowboys forcing four turnovers and that does bode well for the Dallas D (and is an indictment of the Green Bay offense as Aaron Rodgers never looked comfortable), but I felt that Dak Prescott played his worst game despite three TD passes. He finally threw an interception but also fumbled twice (losing one). The Cowboys are heading into their bye week, but I might look to start fading them if they get some inflated lines.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas over Green Bay by 20.
50/50 ATS Results
New England (-7.5) in 35-17 home win over Cincinnati
A lot of people might say the Patriots easily won and covered this game, but the Bengals led 14-10 early in the third quarter and the game turned on a Dont'a Hightower safety with 7:05 left in the third. Still, the Patriots were never winning by more than the spread until taking a 25-14 lead with 2:58 left in the third quarter and the Bengals stayed within one score of covering until LeGarrette Blount's 1-yard TD run with a mere 57 seconds to play (that score also put the game over the total of 48.5). While the Bengals keep losing to elite teams (including the playoffs), I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 6-1 or 5-2 as they step down in class for most of their next seven games.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New England over Cincinnati by 5.
Cleveland (+7.5) in 28-26 loss at Tennessee
Bettors on the Titans might say this was a bad beat as they led 28-13 with just 6:43 to play, but the Browns were in this game most of the way, trailing 7-6 after the first quarter and 14-13 at halftime. In addition, they had a chance to get within the number after trailing 28-13 as Terrelle Pryor caught his second TD pass from Cody Kesslerwith 2:07 left and the Browns went for 2 (which would have gotten inside the number). They then got in the back door on Duke Johnson Jr.'s 1-yard TD run with :27 remaining. The Titans are definitely improving but aren't ready to dominate and cover big spreads like this.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee over Cleveland by 4.
New York Giants (-3.5) in 27-23 home win over Baltimore
This was a true coin-flip game. The Ravens jumped out to a 10-0 lead but the Giants battled back and were covering 17-13 heading to the fourth quarter. The Ravens rallied and actually led 23-20 before Odell Beckham Jr's 66-yard catch-and-run TD from Eli Manning with 1:24 to play. The Ravens' run defense excelled again, allowing just 38 yards on 17 carries -- however, that doesn't help in today's NFL if you're going to give up 400 yards passing.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York Giants over Baltimore by 2.
Detroit (-3) push in 31-28 home win over Los Angeles
Neither team led by more than 7 in this contest. In fact, they kept trading leads as the Lions led 7-0 and 21-14, but the Rams led 14-7 and 28-21 with ties at multiples of 7 (7-7, 14-14, 21-21, 28-28). Matt Prater's 34-yard FG with 1:29 left provided the winning margin, which pushed against the closing line. Early bettors who grabbed Rams +3.5 and a lot of contest players (including the Westgate SuperContest) were winners on the Rams. The Lions still lack a running game (Zach Zenner was their leading rusher with 58 yards) but did enough to get the win with Matthew Stafford's four TD passes.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Los Angeles over Detroit by 9.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Atlanta (+7) in 26-24 spread-covering road loss at Seattle
The Seahawks looked like the right side early, grabbing a 7-0 lead and then leading 17-3 at halftime, but the Falcons rallied and looked like the right side when they took a 24-17 lead late in the third quarter. However, the Seahawks rallied (though a missed extra point by Steven Hauschka left them down 24-23 with 4:43 to play before Hauschka hit the game-winning FG with 1:57 to play). The battle of the Falcons' No. 1 offense vs. Seattle's No. 1 defense was a split decision. Both teams should be fine moving forward.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Seattle over Atlanta by 1.
Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS - These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Sunday game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory but the other one rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost that game and crying "bad beat!" And, of course, there are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games. We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 6 action (plus Thursday's game).
There wasn't a clear-cut, obvious "bad beat" in the NFL all day Sunday (though the Chicago Bears' loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars is listed below) until the night game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans -- though it's technically a "bad push" for Colts +3 backers, while the under was also a bad beat.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
Bad Beats (clearly wrong sides)
Indianapolis (+3) in 26-23 overtime road loss at Houston
The Colts jumped out to a 13-0 lead and then went up 23-9 with 7:12 left in regulation, so they were clearly the right side most of the night. However, the Texans scored two TDs in the final 2:37 without needing an onside kick to force overtime. Nick Novak kicked the winning 33-yard field goal with 8:13 left in overtime to make Indy bettors settle for a push. Under 48 was an even more obvious bad beat as the Colts led 13-9 after three quarters but then 27 points were scored the rest of the way. If it had been a scoreless overtime resulting in a 23-23 tie, the under still could have cashed, but it went over on Novak's winning kick. My biggest takeaway was going to be that the Houston looked really inept on offense (and against a porous Colts' defense, too) and Brock Osweiler looked lost at times, but then Osweiler and the Texans certainly came through in the clutch so I'll reserve judgment to see if they build on this victory.
Chicago (-2.5) in 17-16 loss to Jacksonville
The Bears were in complete control of this game and still led 13-0 heading into the fourth quarter until the Jacksonville offense finally woke up. The Jaguars finally got on the board on a Chris Ivory 1-yard TD run with 14:50 play and the Bears still led 16-10 after the two teams traded field goals, but Jacksonville completed the comeback with Blake Bortles' 51-yard TD pass toArrelious Benn with 2:49 to play (after the cornerback slipped). The under was never in doubt, but I'm not ready to upgrade either defense (and while the Bears were pitching a shutout for three quarters, that was only because the Jaguars squandered a goal-to-go chance in the first half that ended in an interception on a deflected pass).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Based on the fundamentals, Jacksonville was expected to beat Chicago by 9.
Easy Covers (clearly right sides)
Thursday: San Diego (+3) in 21-13 home upset of Denver
The Chargers scored on a 7-minute drive to open the game and never looked back. In fact, the Broncos didn't score until 5:40 left in the first half and only after a muffed punt set up a short field (and they were still only able to manage a FG). San Diego led 21-3 in the fourth quarter and the Broncos scored 10 points to make it interesting as they also recovered an onside kick and threw a Hail Mary at the end, but the Chargers avoided another bad beat. My biggest takeaway is a mixture of thinking the Chargers' defense really stepped up (though giving up 10 fourth-quarter points isn't encouraging) and that the league might be figuring outTrevor Siemian.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Diego over Denver by 4.
Dolphins (+7.5) in 30-15 home win over Pittsburgh
The Steelers never led by more than the spread. They did take an 8-3 lead on Darrius Heyward-Bey's 60-yard run with 5:39 left in the first quarter and added the two-point conversion, so it looked like they might be off and running, but Miami scored 20 unanswered points to take control. My biggest takeaway was that for whatever reason, the Steelers aren't traveling well: This was their second disappointing performance on both sides of the ball as a road favorite (they lost 34-3 at Philadelphia in Week 3).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Miami over Pittsburgh by 12.
Buffalo (-7.5) in 45-16 home win over San Francisco
Even though Colin Kaepernick had the 49ers up 10-7 and within 14-13 until late in the first half, the Bills were mostly in control and then pulled away in the second half. The Bills finally featured LeSean McCoy (140 yards, 3 rushing TDs) like I've been saying since the preseason, and it's apparent the 49ers really miss NaVorro Bowman in the middle of their defense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Buffalo over San Francisco by 10.
Washington (+3) in 27-20 home win over Philadelphia
The Redskins jumped out to a 14-0 lead, and even though the Eagles fought back to make it 14-14 onMalcolm Jenkins' 64-yard INT return with 3:55 left before halftime, the Redskins responded with a 13-play, 75-yard TD drive to lead 21-14 at halftime and held on in the second half. The Eagles' defense, which earned such high praise early in the season, got shredded for 493 yards and looks like it was overrated.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington over Philadelphia by 1.
New Orleans (+3) in 41-38 home win over Carolina
The Saints jumped out to a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter. The Panthers rallied and actually tied it at 38-38 with 2:58 left, but the Saints drove for the winning field goal. The Panthers' defense continues to be a shadow of its former self. Of course, we haven't trusted the Saints' defense for a couple of years.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New Orleans over Carolina by 1.
Kansas City (-2) in 26-10 win at Oakland
The Raiders scored a TD on their opening drive, but the Chiefs went ahead 13-7 by midway through the second quarter and were covering the rest of the way. The big takeaway is to not bet against Andy Reid off of a bye week (he's 16-2 SU in his career), but more than that the Chiefs played a complete game, shutting down the Raiders' potent offense and having a balanced offense withSpencer Ware running for 131 yards and a TD and Alex Smith adding 224 yards and a TD pass.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Kansas City over Oakland by 15.
Dallas (+5) in 30-16 road win at Green Bay
The Packers never led in this one. They were within 7-6 early in the second quarter but the Cowboys pulled ahead by 17-6 at halftime and coasted from there. Everyone is talking about the Cowboys forcing four turnovers and that does bode well for the Dallas D (and is an indictment of the Green Bay offense as Aaron Rodgers never looked comfortable), but I felt that Dak Prescott played his worst game despite three TD passes. He finally threw an interception but also fumbled twice (losing one). The Cowboys are heading into their bye week, but I might look to start fading them if they get some inflated lines.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas over Green Bay by 20.
50/50 ATS Results
New England (-7.5) in 35-17 home win over Cincinnati
A lot of people might say the Patriots easily won and covered this game, but the Bengals led 14-10 early in the third quarter and the game turned on a Dont'a Hightower safety with 7:05 left in the third. Still, the Patriots were never winning by more than the spread until taking a 25-14 lead with 2:58 left in the third quarter and the Bengals stayed within one score of covering until LeGarrette Blount's 1-yard TD run with a mere 57 seconds to play (that score also put the game over the total of 48.5). While the Bengals keep losing to elite teams (including the playoffs), I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 6-1 or 5-2 as they step down in class for most of their next seven games.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New England over Cincinnati by 5.
Cleveland (+7.5) in 28-26 loss at Tennessee
Bettors on the Titans might say this was a bad beat as they led 28-13 with just 6:43 to play, but the Browns were in this game most of the way, trailing 7-6 after the first quarter and 14-13 at halftime. In addition, they had a chance to get within the number after trailing 28-13 as Terrelle Pryor caught his second TD pass from Cody Kesslerwith 2:07 left and the Browns went for 2 (which would have gotten inside the number). They then got in the back door on Duke Johnson Jr.'s 1-yard TD run with :27 remaining. The Titans are definitely improving but aren't ready to dominate and cover big spreads like this.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee over Cleveland by 4.
New York Giants (-3.5) in 27-23 home win over Baltimore
This was a true coin-flip game. The Ravens jumped out to a 10-0 lead but the Giants battled back and were covering 17-13 heading to the fourth quarter. The Ravens rallied and actually led 23-20 before Odell Beckham Jr's 66-yard catch-and-run TD from Eli Manning with 1:24 to play. The Ravens' run defense excelled again, allowing just 38 yards on 17 carries -- however, that doesn't help in today's NFL if you're going to give up 400 yards passing.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York Giants over Baltimore by 2.
Detroit (-3) push in 31-28 home win over Los Angeles
Neither team led by more than 7 in this contest. In fact, they kept trading leads as the Lions led 7-0 and 21-14, but the Rams led 14-7 and 28-21 with ties at multiples of 7 (7-7, 14-14, 21-21, 28-28). Matt Prater's 34-yard FG with 1:29 left provided the winning margin, which pushed against the closing line. Early bettors who grabbed Rams +3.5 and a lot of contest players (including the Westgate SuperContest) were winners on the Rams. The Lions still lack a running game (Zach Zenner was their leading rusher with 58 yards) but did enough to get the win with Matthew Stafford's four TD passes.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Los Angeles over Detroit by 9.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Atlanta (+7) in 26-24 spread-covering road loss at Seattle
The Seahawks looked like the right side early, grabbing a 7-0 lead and then leading 17-3 at halftime, but the Falcons rallied and looked like the right side when they took a 24-17 lead late in the third quarter. However, the Seahawks rallied (though a missed extra point by Steven Hauschka left them down 24-23 with 4:43 to play before Hauschka hit the game-winning FG with 1:57 to play). The battle of the Falcons' No. 1 offense vs. Seattle's No. 1 defense was a split decision. Both teams should be fine moving forward.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Seattle over Atlanta by 1.
