Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 7 of the NFL
David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
A successful contrarian bettor questions conventional wisdom and challenges widely held beliefs. Sportsbooks are excellent at predicting where they're going to get action each week, and they shade their lines accordingly. These shaded lines create additional value for bettors who dare to go against the grain and take an unpopular viewpoint.
Over the first six weeks of the season, most of my betting strategies have involved capitalizing on spreads that have been artificially inflated based on public betting and perception, but opportunistic bettors can also find contrarian value on the total.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
It's important to realize that the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed, and there's about three times as much money wagered on the spread than on the total. It's rare for public money to move the total, which explains why there hasn't been the same type of value betting on contrarian totals.
Casual bettors love rooting for high-scoring games, and they allow their emotions to control their behavior. Using Bet Labs' data analysis software, I discovered that a majority of public bettors have taken the over in 86.6 percent of all regular season games since 2003. Sportsbooks can easily anticipate public money on the over, and they account for the inevitable influx of public money when setting the opening line.
Since the majority of casual bettors avoid betting totals like Larry David avoids stop-and-chats, there are few situations where one-sided money creates value. As a result, I have found that it's more profitable to focus on disproving betting market myths than to rely on fading the public.
One popular belief is that the under is more profitable when the game is played at freezing temperatures -- below 32 degrees Fahrenheit. In fact, there is a direct correlation between colder temperatures and lower scores, but that hasn't led to more profitable returns.
My research found that the average total in games played at freezing temperatures actually decreased by a larger margin than scoring decreased, which has created value on the over in these cold weather games.
Since the start of the 2003 season, the under has gone just 76-104 (42.2 percent) when the game was played at freezing temperatures. This trend demonstrates two things -- utilizing a contrarian strategy can still be effective when betting totals, and weather can have a significant impact on betting lines.
Just weeks after Hurricane Matthew battered the Florida coast, high winds and rain have been rampaging the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest. With high wind speeds from coast to coast, I wanted to see whether shrewd bettors could capitalize on the weather pattern.
When the wind speed was at least 10 miles per hour, my analysis found the under has gone 402-322 (55.5 percent) with +56.55 units won. That trend has been remarkably profitable in recent years, posting a 93-56 record (62.4 percent) since 2013.
After eliminating the cold weather games where it's detrimental to bet the under, I was able to create a new betting system with a 10.6 percent return on investment (ROI) and five current game matches.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
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</aside>Why does this work?
There are eight NFL teams who play in dome stadiums and are thus immune to any ill effects from weather conditions, but for the other 24 teams, excessive wind speeds are a considerable hindrance to both the passing and kicking game.
Oddsmakers typically set lower totals in games with high expected wind speeds, but they haven't set it low enough. Conversely, oddsmakers typically overcompensate by setting low totals in cold-weather games.
Weather is not typically given proper consideration when setting the line, especially early in the week when weather patterns may be unreliable or unpredictable. It's also important to understand that the majority of public bettors have still taken the over in more than 80 percent of games where the wind is blowing at least 10 mph. Since the public isn't changing its behavior, oddsmakers aren't overly worried about their liability.
Bettors place far more value on temperature and precipitation, but wind speeds have the greatest impact on the total. It causes teams to run more often which leads to more running clock, fewer possessions and lower scoring games.
Strong wind greatly impacts a team's ability to pass, which gives strong running teams an additional edge. Coaches often employ more cautious game plans when the wind is whipping around, and that has created excellent value on the under.
My system picks went 1-1 against the spread last week. We'll try to bounce back this week with five current game matches.
Week 7 system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (O/U 43.5)
The Rams and Giants will travel to London as the NFL continues its UK International series this weekend at Twickenham Stadium. Both teams went over the closing total last week, which makes this an ideal sell-high opportunity.
The Westgate Superbook opened the total at 44, and 75 percent of early tickets have taken the over. Although the majority of bettors have taken the over, 56 percent of total dollars wagered have actually taken the under. These contradicting betting trends are an excellent indicator that sharp money likes the under.
It's difficult to accurately predict weather patterns five days out, but forecasts anticipate 11 mph winds and 53-degree temperatures. I would recommend that bettors wait until closer to game time before placing their wager, but this under looks to be offering tremendous value.
The pick: Under 43.5
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 40)
The total opened at 40 for Sam Bradford's return to Philadelphia, and bettors have been overwhelmingly pounding the over. At the time of publication, 87 percent of tickets and 60 percent of total dollars wagered were taking the over.
Early forecasts call for 13 mph wind speeds and a 59-degree temperature, which makes this another system match. The Vikings have the league's top-ranked scoring defense (12.6 PPG) while the Eagles have the third-best scoring defense (15.6 PPG). This should be a low-scoring game, and both teams could struggle to pass the ball.
Historically there's been slight value on the over in games with low totals, but I still like the under in this matchup.
The pick: Under 40
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 50.5)
At Sports Insights, we always encourage bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news. Considering the Saints and Panthers combined for 79 points last week, this should be the opportune time to sell high on the Saints.
The total opened at 50 for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, which marks the second-highest Week 7 total. Despite the lofty total, 60 percent of tickets and 84 percent of total dollars wagered have taken the over. This one-sided public betting has caused the total to increase from 50 to 50.5.
The Saints play their home games in a domed stadium, and that leads many bettors to inaccurately evaluate their offense -- particularly their passing game. Case in point: New Orleans tallied 2,714 passing yards with 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions last season in home games compared to just 2,256 passing yards with 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in road games.
This is one of the rare opportunities where public money appears to be moving the total. I have also found that the under typically provides more value in games with high totals. With meteorologists projecting 12 mph winds, the under looks like a solid bet.
The pick: Under 50.5
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (O/U 44)
Since 2003, the under has gone 658-593 (52.6 percent) in divisional games and 1011-1096 in all other games. That's yet another reason to like the under in Sunday's AFC East showdown.
The Westgate set the opening total at 44.5 and the public has been hammering the over. At the time of publication, 83 percent of tickets and 78 percent of total dollars wagered were on the over. Despite this one-sided public betting, the total dropped from 44.5 to 44. That reverse line movement is an excellent indicator of sharp money on the under.
The forecast is calling for 21 mph winds Sunday, which means both teams will likely struggle to throw the ball. This is probably my favorite play this week, and I'm very confident that it will continue to fit the system criteria throughout the week.
The pick: Under 44
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (O/U 41.5)
This game was off the board until late Tuesday afternoon, but early public bettors have been pounding the over. At the time of publication, 71 percent of money was taking the over yet the total had dropped from 42.5 to 41.5. Once again, this reverse line movement indicates sharp money is taking the under.
The Jets could rely more heavily on their running game with Geno Smith starting for the first time since 2014, especially given the windy conditions. On the other side, Joe Flacco could struggle to throw the deep ball, which eliminates a major tool from the Ravens' arsenal.
Both teams have been sneaky-good on defense, and this should be a closely contested game. Follow the sharp money, and take the under in this conference matchup.
The pick: Under 41.5
Note: These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
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David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
A successful contrarian bettor questions conventional wisdom and challenges widely held beliefs. Sportsbooks are excellent at predicting where they're going to get action each week, and they shade their lines accordingly. These shaded lines create additional value for bettors who dare to go against the grain and take an unpopular viewpoint.
Over the first six weeks of the season, most of my betting strategies have involved capitalizing on spreads that have been artificially inflated based on public betting and perception, but opportunistic bettors can also find contrarian value on the total.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
It's important to realize that the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed, and there's about three times as much money wagered on the spread than on the total. It's rare for public money to move the total, which explains why there hasn't been the same type of value betting on contrarian totals.
Casual bettors love rooting for high-scoring games, and they allow their emotions to control their behavior. Using Bet Labs' data analysis software, I discovered that a majority of public bettors have taken the over in 86.6 percent of all regular season games since 2003. Sportsbooks can easily anticipate public money on the over, and they account for the inevitable influx of public money when setting the opening line.
Since the majority of casual bettors avoid betting totals like Larry David avoids stop-and-chats, there are few situations where one-sided money creates value. As a result, I have found that it's more profitable to focus on disproving betting market myths than to rely on fading the public.
One popular belief is that the under is more profitable when the game is played at freezing temperatures -- below 32 degrees Fahrenheit. In fact, there is a direct correlation between colder temperatures and lower scores, but that hasn't led to more profitable returns.
My research found that the average total in games played at freezing temperatures actually decreased by a larger margin than scoring decreased, which has created value on the over in these cold weather games.
Since the start of the 2003 season, the under has gone just 76-104 (42.2 percent) when the game was played at freezing temperatures. This trend demonstrates two things -- utilizing a contrarian strategy can still be effective when betting totals, and weather can have a significant impact on betting lines.
Just weeks after Hurricane Matthew battered the Florida coast, high winds and rain have been rampaging the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest. With high wind speeds from coast to coast, I wanted to see whether shrewd bettors could capitalize on the weather pattern.
When the wind speed was at least 10 miles per hour, my analysis found the under has gone 402-322 (55.5 percent) with +56.55 units won. That trend has been remarkably profitable in recent years, posting a 93-56 record (62.4 percent) since 2013.
After eliminating the cold weather games where it's detrimental to bet the under, I was able to create a new betting system with a 10.6 percent return on investment (ROI) and five current game matches.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Unders | 1669-1689 (49.7%) | -112.58 | -3.4% |
| Under, Wind >10 MPH | 402-322 (55.5%) | +56.55 | +7.8% |
| Under, Wind >10 MPH, Temp >32 degrees | 372-281 (57.0%) | +69.28 | +10.6% |
| Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
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</aside>Why does this work?
There are eight NFL teams who play in dome stadiums and are thus immune to any ill effects from weather conditions, but for the other 24 teams, excessive wind speeds are a considerable hindrance to both the passing and kicking game.
Oddsmakers typically set lower totals in games with high expected wind speeds, but they haven't set it low enough. Conversely, oddsmakers typically overcompensate by setting low totals in cold-weather games.
Weather is not typically given proper consideration when setting the line, especially early in the week when weather patterns may be unreliable or unpredictable. It's also important to understand that the majority of public bettors have still taken the over in more than 80 percent of games where the wind is blowing at least 10 mph. Since the public isn't changing its behavior, oddsmakers aren't overly worried about their liability.
Bettors place far more value on temperature and precipitation, but wind speeds have the greatest impact on the total. It causes teams to run more often which leads to more running clock, fewer possessions and lower scoring games.
Strong wind greatly impacts a team's ability to pass, which gives strong running teams an additional edge. Coaches often employ more cautious game plans when the wind is whipping around, and that has created excellent value on the under.
My system picks went 1-1 against the spread last week. We'll try to bounce back this week with five current game matches.
Week 7 system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (O/U 43.5)
The Rams and Giants will travel to London as the NFL continues its UK International series this weekend at Twickenham Stadium. Both teams went over the closing total last week, which makes this an ideal sell-high opportunity.
The Westgate Superbook opened the total at 44, and 75 percent of early tickets have taken the over. Although the majority of bettors have taken the over, 56 percent of total dollars wagered have actually taken the under. These contradicting betting trends are an excellent indicator that sharp money likes the under.
It's difficult to accurately predict weather patterns five days out, but forecasts anticipate 11 mph winds and 53-degree temperatures. I would recommend that bettors wait until closer to game time before placing their wager, but this under looks to be offering tremendous value.
The pick: Under 43.5
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 40)
The total opened at 40 for Sam Bradford's return to Philadelphia, and bettors have been overwhelmingly pounding the over. At the time of publication, 87 percent of tickets and 60 percent of total dollars wagered were taking the over.
Early forecasts call for 13 mph wind speeds and a 59-degree temperature, which makes this another system match. The Vikings have the league's top-ranked scoring defense (12.6 PPG) while the Eagles have the third-best scoring defense (15.6 PPG). This should be a low-scoring game, and both teams could struggle to pass the ball.
Historically there's been slight value on the over in games with low totals, but I still like the under in this matchup.
The pick: Under 40
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 50.5)
At Sports Insights, we always encourage bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news. Considering the Saints and Panthers combined for 79 points last week, this should be the opportune time to sell high on the Saints.
The total opened at 50 for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, which marks the second-highest Week 7 total. Despite the lofty total, 60 percent of tickets and 84 percent of total dollars wagered have taken the over. This one-sided public betting has caused the total to increase from 50 to 50.5.
The Saints play their home games in a domed stadium, and that leads many bettors to inaccurately evaluate their offense -- particularly their passing game. Case in point: New Orleans tallied 2,714 passing yards with 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions last season in home games compared to just 2,256 passing yards with 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in road games.
This is one of the rare opportunities where public money appears to be moving the total. I have also found that the under typically provides more value in games with high totals. With meteorologists projecting 12 mph winds, the under looks like a solid bet.
The pick: Under 50.5
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (O/U 44)
Since 2003, the under has gone 658-593 (52.6 percent) in divisional games and 1011-1096 in all other games. That's yet another reason to like the under in Sunday's AFC East showdown.
The Westgate set the opening total at 44.5 and the public has been hammering the over. At the time of publication, 83 percent of tickets and 78 percent of total dollars wagered were on the over. Despite this one-sided public betting, the total dropped from 44.5 to 44. That reverse line movement is an excellent indicator of sharp money on the under.
The forecast is calling for 21 mph winds Sunday, which means both teams will likely struggle to throw the ball. This is probably my favorite play this week, and I'm very confident that it will continue to fit the system criteria throughout the week.
The pick: Under 44
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (O/U 41.5)
This game was off the board until late Tuesday afternoon, but early public bettors have been pounding the over. At the time of publication, 71 percent of money was taking the over yet the total had dropped from 42.5 to 41.5. Once again, this reverse line movement indicates sharp money is taking the under.
The Jets could rely more heavily on their running game with Geno Smith starting for the first time since 2014, especially given the windy conditions. On the other side, Joe Flacco could struggle to throw the deep ball, which eliminates a major tool from the Ravens' arsenal.
Both teams have been sneaky-good on defense, and this should be a closely contested game. Follow the sharp money, and take the under in this conference matchup.
The pick: Under 41.5
Note: These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
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