[h=1]Cubs-Indians World Series betting guide[/h]MLB Vegas Experts
ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
As most know, the 1989 movie, set in 1985, traveled 30 years into the future where the Chicago Cubs were 2015 World Series Champions. Of course, owing to their decades of futility, the Cleveland Indians have also been the subject of their own World Series-winning, silver screen fantasy, also released in 1989, "Major League." It took 27 years, but one of those plot devices is going to be obsolete in two weeks.
It all starts Tuesday night in Cleveland because in the second inning of a July exhibition in San Diego -- without a single Cleveland Indians player on the field --Salvador Perez of the Royals hit a two-run homer off of the Giants' Johnny Cueto. That means if the 103-win Cubs want a repeat of Saturday night's joyous celebration in Wrigley Field, they are going to need to win one of the first two games of the World Series in Cleveland.
By virtue of their League Championship performances, both teams come in to the World Series rested with the rosters they desire. Cleveland's entire bullpen has had nearly a week of rest, as has Trevor Bauer's pinky and Danny Salazar(added to the roster after being out the past six weeks). The Cubs made a notable roster addition of their own, adding left-handed slugger Kyle Schwarber, presumably to DH during games in Cleveland. Jon Lester starts Game 1 on full rest and it appears Jake Arrieta will start Game 2, meaning National League Championship Series Game 6 hero Kyle Hendricks would start Game 3 at Wrigley Field where he has been spectacular all season. It all adds up to one of the more anticipated Fall Classics in many years, probably since 2004.
While the eyes of the sports world are on the Cubs to see if they can break their 108-year curse, here at Chalk they're on our baseball handicapper, Joe Peta, who, back in March, called for the Cubs and the Indians to meet in the 2016 World Series in his 30-team MLB preview. On top of that, as regular readers know, he has correctly predicted every single 2016 playoff matchup to date.
He discusses his attempt to complete the elusive "perfect postseason bracket" below, along with his best bets for the series. He's joined by Andrew Lange, and lifelong Cubs fan Dave Tuley.
Cleveland Indians (+180) vs. Chicago Cubs(-210)
Game 1 PickCenter: 51 percent picking Cubs
Joe Peta: In every sports column across the country you'll see references to either "first time in 108 years" or "first time in 68 years" representing, of course, the World Series-winning droughts for the Cubs and Indians, respectively. But on these pages, it's the chase for a "once-in-a-512 year" occurrence that we're focused on; that's the odds of randomly picking the winner of all nine MLB postseason series. And like a pitcher taking the mound with one inning left to complete a perfect game, I'm eight-ninths of the way there.
Of course, the results of all of the 2016 series weren't coin flips -- not with the Cubs laying in excess of -200 in both the National League Division Series and NLCS. However, all three of the American League series following the wild-card round featured underdog winners, and if you take the midpoint of each series line played this year, the odds of getting this far without a miss are nearly 1-in-170. So it's not quite the 1-in-256 chance of randomly getting the first eight series correct in 2016, but it's still a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence for a handicapper.
Turning to the task at hand, when betting baseball money lines a play on the underdog falls into one of two camps: 1) you expect the underdog to win or 2) you expect the underdog to lose, but, similar to being offered 10-1 odds on rolling a six with one toss of a die, you don't expect to win but you'll take the bet every time. As detailed in the write-ups, my pick of the Cleveland Indians in both the American League Division Series and the American League Championship Series fell into the first category. The combination of shaky rotations in Boston and Toronto, a very underrated Indians offense especially in relation to Toronto and my hope that Terry Francona would deploy his bullpen assets in exactly the manner he did, made the Indians a straightforward "wrong team favored" pick. However, that logic doesn't apply when facing the Cubs. Chicago's superior rotation and potent lineup make it far less likely that Cleveland can get to the fifth inning of a game winning or tied -- as the Indians did in seven out of eight games against Boston and Toronto. The Indians, properly, will not be favored in a single game against the Cubs, although pick 'em odds apply to Game 1 and possibly Game 2.
So that leaves the value proposition. Has the public bid up the Cubs so highly that the implied win percentage of 66.7 in the series line is 5, 6 or 7 percentage points too high?
That's a case that can probably be made, especially if you look at regular-season lines. I mentioned on Twitter before Game 5 of the NLCS that Jon Lester was a smaller favorite in a late-August game in Los Angeles, backed by exactly the same lineup, with Brock Stewart on the mound for the Dodgers (and some other substitutes in the lineup) than he was facing Kenta Maeda last week.
One of those two prices was wrong and the natural instinct is to assume the Cubs are being marked up unreasonably in the postseason. Reasonable people, including model builders can disagree, but I would argue that the wrong price was the August line. The Cubs really are this good and if it weren't for the hard-to-model effect of the team with the most stolen bases in the American League facing Jon Lester, I'd be looking to place a Cubs sweep bet. Let's give the Indians, with a combination of aggressive baserunning and their stellar bullpen a win in one of the two games they face Lester, but otherwise look for a continuation of the full-season dominance we've seen from the Cubs' pitchers, defense and batters.
As I said in the video accompanying the Cubs season preview way back in March, "there's going to be a lot of Ws raised at Wrigley Field this year ... all the way into November."
Cubs in 5.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -210
Dave Tuley: I've waited my whole life for the Cubs to be in the World Series and never imagined they'd also be -200 favorites, but the price certainly makes sense. They have the better -- and deeper -- pitching staff, defense and lineup, plus they've added Schwarber to DH during the games in Cleveland (though that might be a drop-off the way the Cubs' pitchers have been hitting in the postseason -- an additional edge they'll possess for the games at Wrigley Field).
Although I'm predicting the Cubs to win in five games, I am a little concerned with the way the Indians have prevailed as series underdogs in both the ALDS and ALCS while having home-field advantage. While I'm confident the Cubs are going to win their first World Series since 1908, I'm still not willing to lay the -200 odds. Instead, I'll just be playing game-by-game and I've already bet it -107 with the Cubs in Game 1 behind Lester.
I'll mostly be looking to play the Cubs when they're not overpriced (+120 vs. the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw in Game 5 of the NLCS was a steal). Keep checking back at Chalk to see how the three of us break down each individual game as I might take the Indians as road underdogs at Wrigley if the matchup fits. In addition, I'm also going to play the unders in this series, starting with under 6.5 (even) in Game 1.
I recommended the under in the Dodgers-Cubs series and it went 3-3 while the under is 7-1 in Indians' games this postseason (Cubs are 5-5). I expect more pitchers' duels in this series.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -107 (Game 1); under 6.5 (EVEN)
Andrew Lange: I supported Cleveland at the plus price in its ALCS triumph over Toronto and in that analysis, I mentioned that I made the series price close to a pick 'em. Even accounting for the significant power rating difference between the Blue Jays and Cubs, I still feel the Indians -- who have home-field advantage -- are being undervalued. I power rate the Cubs as the best team in MLB but price them at -140 in this matchup.
Cleveland's pitching staff is loaded with right-handed arms, which is an ideal fit against the Cubs -- a lineup stronger against lefties. The Cubs have faced only one elite right-handed starter this postseason in San Francisco's Johnny Cueto and managed only three hits and one run. They'll see one in Game 1 with Corey Kluber projected to start.
I do have a few concerns regarding the Indians, most notably how flawlessly their unique pitching strategy has played out thus far. They were on the winning end of three close games and even got away with tossing a rookie in what ended up being the series clincher against Toronto. The way the schedule sets up, particularly with Games 3-5 all back-to-back, the bullpen-heavy attack could backfire. I'm all for unconventional approaches, but Cleveland's success stems from the fact that the heavily used bullpen was near perfect and thus helped shorten the series. It would have been very interesting to see it play out had the series with Toronto gone six or seven games.
However, it did only last five games, and Cleveland heads into Game 1 of the World Series rested and ready with a starter that consistently goes deep into games.
In the end, Cubs grade out as the better team but by not nearly as much as the betting markets suggest. I have a wager on Cleveland +180 for the series.
ESPN Chalk pick: Cleveland +180
ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
As most know, the 1989 movie, set in 1985, traveled 30 years into the future where the Chicago Cubs were 2015 World Series Champions. Of course, owing to their decades of futility, the Cleveland Indians have also been the subject of their own World Series-winning, silver screen fantasy, also released in 1989, "Major League." It took 27 years, but one of those plot devices is going to be obsolete in two weeks.
It all starts Tuesday night in Cleveland because in the second inning of a July exhibition in San Diego -- without a single Cleveland Indians player on the field --Salvador Perez of the Royals hit a two-run homer off of the Giants' Johnny Cueto. That means if the 103-win Cubs want a repeat of Saturday night's joyous celebration in Wrigley Field, they are going to need to win one of the first two games of the World Series in Cleveland.
By virtue of their League Championship performances, both teams come in to the World Series rested with the rosters they desire. Cleveland's entire bullpen has had nearly a week of rest, as has Trevor Bauer's pinky and Danny Salazar(added to the roster after being out the past six weeks). The Cubs made a notable roster addition of their own, adding left-handed slugger Kyle Schwarber, presumably to DH during games in Cleveland. Jon Lester starts Game 1 on full rest and it appears Jake Arrieta will start Game 2, meaning National League Championship Series Game 6 hero Kyle Hendricks would start Game 3 at Wrigley Field where he has been spectacular all season. It all adds up to one of the more anticipated Fall Classics in many years, probably since 2004.
While the eyes of the sports world are on the Cubs to see if they can break their 108-year curse, here at Chalk they're on our baseball handicapper, Joe Peta, who, back in March, called for the Cubs and the Indians to meet in the 2016 World Series in his 30-team MLB preview. On top of that, as regular readers know, he has correctly predicted every single 2016 playoff matchup to date.
He discusses his attempt to complete the elusive "perfect postseason bracket" below, along with his best bets for the series. He's joined by Andrew Lange, and lifelong Cubs fan Dave Tuley.
Cleveland Indians (+180) vs. Chicago Cubs(-210)
Game 1 PickCenter: 51 percent picking Cubs
Joe Peta: In every sports column across the country you'll see references to either "first time in 108 years" or "first time in 68 years" representing, of course, the World Series-winning droughts for the Cubs and Indians, respectively. But on these pages, it's the chase for a "once-in-a-512 year" occurrence that we're focused on; that's the odds of randomly picking the winner of all nine MLB postseason series. And like a pitcher taking the mound with one inning left to complete a perfect game, I'm eight-ninths of the way there.
Of course, the results of all of the 2016 series weren't coin flips -- not with the Cubs laying in excess of -200 in both the National League Division Series and NLCS. However, all three of the American League series following the wild-card round featured underdog winners, and if you take the midpoint of each series line played this year, the odds of getting this far without a miss are nearly 1-in-170. So it's not quite the 1-in-256 chance of randomly getting the first eight series correct in 2016, but it's still a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence for a handicapper.
Turning to the task at hand, when betting baseball money lines a play on the underdog falls into one of two camps: 1) you expect the underdog to win or 2) you expect the underdog to lose, but, similar to being offered 10-1 odds on rolling a six with one toss of a die, you don't expect to win but you'll take the bet every time. As detailed in the write-ups, my pick of the Cleveland Indians in both the American League Division Series and the American League Championship Series fell into the first category. The combination of shaky rotations in Boston and Toronto, a very underrated Indians offense especially in relation to Toronto and my hope that Terry Francona would deploy his bullpen assets in exactly the manner he did, made the Indians a straightforward "wrong team favored" pick. However, that logic doesn't apply when facing the Cubs. Chicago's superior rotation and potent lineup make it far less likely that Cleveland can get to the fifth inning of a game winning or tied -- as the Indians did in seven out of eight games against Boston and Toronto. The Indians, properly, will not be favored in a single game against the Cubs, although pick 'em odds apply to Game 1 and possibly Game 2.
So that leaves the value proposition. Has the public bid up the Cubs so highly that the implied win percentage of 66.7 in the series line is 5, 6 or 7 percentage points too high?
That's a case that can probably be made, especially if you look at regular-season lines. I mentioned on Twitter before Game 5 of the NLCS that Jon Lester was a smaller favorite in a late-August game in Los Angeles, backed by exactly the same lineup, with Brock Stewart on the mound for the Dodgers (and some other substitutes in the lineup) than he was facing Kenta Maeda last week.
One of those two prices was wrong and the natural instinct is to assume the Cubs are being marked up unreasonably in the postseason. Reasonable people, including model builders can disagree, but I would argue that the wrong price was the August line. The Cubs really are this good and if it weren't for the hard-to-model effect of the team with the most stolen bases in the American League facing Jon Lester, I'd be looking to place a Cubs sweep bet. Let's give the Indians, with a combination of aggressive baserunning and their stellar bullpen a win in one of the two games they face Lester, but otherwise look for a continuation of the full-season dominance we've seen from the Cubs' pitchers, defense and batters.
As I said in the video accompanying the Cubs season preview way back in March, "there's going to be a lot of Ws raised at Wrigley Field this year ... all the way into November."
Cubs in 5.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -210
Dave Tuley: I've waited my whole life for the Cubs to be in the World Series and never imagined they'd also be -200 favorites, but the price certainly makes sense. They have the better -- and deeper -- pitching staff, defense and lineup, plus they've added Schwarber to DH during the games in Cleveland (though that might be a drop-off the way the Cubs' pitchers have been hitting in the postseason -- an additional edge they'll possess for the games at Wrigley Field).
Although I'm predicting the Cubs to win in five games, I am a little concerned with the way the Indians have prevailed as series underdogs in both the ALDS and ALCS while having home-field advantage. While I'm confident the Cubs are going to win their first World Series since 1908, I'm still not willing to lay the -200 odds. Instead, I'll just be playing game-by-game and I've already bet it -107 with the Cubs in Game 1 behind Lester.
I'll mostly be looking to play the Cubs when they're not overpriced (+120 vs. the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw in Game 5 of the NLCS was a steal). Keep checking back at Chalk to see how the three of us break down each individual game as I might take the Indians as road underdogs at Wrigley if the matchup fits. In addition, I'm also going to play the unders in this series, starting with under 6.5 (even) in Game 1.
I recommended the under in the Dodgers-Cubs series and it went 3-3 while the under is 7-1 in Indians' games this postseason (Cubs are 5-5). I expect more pitchers' duels in this series.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -107 (Game 1); under 6.5 (EVEN)
Andrew Lange: I supported Cleveland at the plus price in its ALCS triumph over Toronto and in that analysis, I mentioned that I made the series price close to a pick 'em. Even accounting for the significant power rating difference between the Blue Jays and Cubs, I still feel the Indians -- who have home-field advantage -- are being undervalued. I power rate the Cubs as the best team in MLB but price them at -140 in this matchup.
Cleveland's pitching staff is loaded with right-handed arms, which is an ideal fit against the Cubs -- a lineup stronger against lefties. The Cubs have faced only one elite right-handed starter this postseason in San Francisco's Johnny Cueto and managed only three hits and one run. They'll see one in Game 1 with Corey Kluber projected to start.
I do have a few concerns regarding the Indians, most notably how flawlessly their unique pitching strategy has played out thus far. They were on the winning end of three close games and even got away with tossing a rookie in what ended up being the series clincher against Toronto. The way the schedule sets up, particularly with Games 3-5 all back-to-back, the bullpen-heavy attack could backfire. I'm all for unconventional approaches, but Cleveland's success stems from the fact that the heavily used bullpen was near perfect and thus helped shorten the series. It would have been very interesting to see it play out had the series with Toronto gone six or seven games.
However, it did only last five games, and Cleveland heads into Game 1 of the World Series rested and ready with a starter that consistently goes deep into games.
In the end, Cubs grade out as the better team but by not nearly as much as the betting markets suggest. I have a wager on Cleveland +180 for the series.
ESPN Chalk pick: Cleveland +180
