[h=1]Vegas handicappers rank every NFL team: Patriots No. 1[/h]Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots have extended their margin atop the NFL Vegas Rankings while the Minnesota Vikings stay in the No. 2 spot despite being dealt their first loss.
The Patriots went on the road to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-16 (albeit withBen Roethlisberger sidelined) as 7.5-point road favorites. The Vikings lost 21-10 as 3-point road favorites at Philadelphia, snapping a 10-game ATS streak dating back to last season.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, along with some Week 8 value plays (12-8 ATS so far this season) using this week's ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
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Movin' on up
The biggest increase in Week 7 came from the Miami Dolphins, whom we increased 1.5 points after their 28-25 upset of the Buffalo Bills as 2.5-point home underdogs. Part of that increase is probably due to not upgrading the Dolphins enough for their Week 6 win over the Steelers. Other teams earning a full-point increase were the Broncos for their 27-9 win as 9-point home favorites over theHouston Texans on Monday night, the Oakland Raiders for their 33-16 win as 2-point road underdogs at Jacksonville, the Indianapolis Colts for their 34-26 win as 4-point road underdogs at Tennessee, the Detroit Lions for their 20-17 win as 1-point home underdogs over Washington and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their 34-17 win as 1.5-point road underdogs at San Francisco.
Dropping down
The biggest decrease was 1.5 points for the San Francisco 49ers, who fell into a tie for the bottom team in our poll with the Cleveland Browns. They looked terrible on both sides of the ball in losing 34-17 to the Buccaneers as 1.5-point home favorites. The 1-point decreases were the Steelers (partly for not being downgraded enough previously for the loss of Big Ben), Texans and Jaguars. TheChicago Bears probably would have been on this list after their 26-10 loss at Green Bay last Thursday night and losing QB Brian Hoyer, but they're actually upgraded by half a point with the return of Jay Cutler.
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[h=2]Week 8 value plays[/h]Ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 12-8 ATS (60 percent) so far this season after going 0-2 ATS in Week 7 with the Steelers +7 against the Patriots and the Texans +7.5 against the Broncos.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 8 games during the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Vegas consensus line: Atlanta -3 (EVEN)
Vegas Ranks: Green Bay -1.5 (25-23.5)
Our panel has the Packers rated 1.5 points better than the Falcons on a neutral field, so even with Atlanta's home-field advantage (which didn't help it last Sunday against San Diego), the numbers say this game should be closer to pick 'em or maybe the Falcons as short home favorites. At +3 (and there's plenty of books without the -120 attached as of Tuesday morning), the Packers are a clear value play.
The play: Packers +3
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
Vegas consensus line: Seattle -3 (EVEN)
Vegas Ranks: Seattle -7.5 (25-17.5)
The raw numbers have the Seahawks as 7.5 points better than the Saints. Even with New Orleans' home-field advantage (which ain't what it used to be), we don't see how this line should be much below the key number of 7. The line looks like it should be around 4.5 or 5, so the price is cheap on Seattle.
The play: Seahawks -3 (EVEN)
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Vegas consensus line: Carolina -2.5 (-120)
Vegas Ranks: Arizona -3 (25-22)
Our panel has the Cardinals as 3 points better than the Panthers on a neutral field, so even with Carolina's home-field advantage, we have this game right around pick 'em. Take Arizona plus any points.
The play: Cardinals +2.5 (EVEN).
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Vegas consensus line: Minnesota -5
Vegas Ranks: Minnesota -9.5 (26.5-17)
Even with the questionable decision by our panel to upgrade the Bears by half a point with Cutler returning, the Vikings are still rated 9.5 points better than the Bears on a neutral field. Chicago doesn't have much of a home-field advantage, so we don't see how this game isn't lined at 7, if not higher.
The play: Vikings -5.5
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots have extended their margin atop the NFL Vegas Rankings while the Minnesota Vikings stay in the No. 2 spot despite being dealt their first loss.
The Patriots went on the road to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-16 (albeit withBen Roethlisberger sidelined) as 7.5-point road favorites. The Vikings lost 21-10 as 3-point road favorites at Philadelphia, snapping a 10-game ATS streak dating back to last season.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, along with some Week 8 value plays (12-8 ATS so far this season) using this week's ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
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Movin' on up
The biggest increase in Week 7 came from the Miami Dolphins, whom we increased 1.5 points after their 28-25 upset of the Buffalo Bills as 2.5-point home underdogs. Part of that increase is probably due to not upgrading the Dolphins enough for their Week 6 win over the Steelers. Other teams earning a full-point increase were the Broncos for their 27-9 win as 9-point home favorites over theHouston Texans on Monday night, the Oakland Raiders for their 33-16 win as 2-point road underdogs at Jacksonville, the Indianapolis Colts for their 34-26 win as 4-point road underdogs at Tennessee, the Detroit Lions for their 20-17 win as 1-point home underdogs over Washington and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their 34-17 win as 1.5-point road underdogs at San Francisco.
Dropping down
The biggest decrease was 1.5 points for the San Francisco 49ers, who fell into a tie for the bottom team in our poll with the Cleveland Browns. They looked terrible on both sides of the ball in losing 34-17 to the Buccaneers as 1.5-point home favorites. The 1-point decreases were the Steelers (partly for not being downgraded enough previously for the loss of Big Ben), Texans and Jaguars. TheChicago Bears probably would have been on this list after their 26-10 loss at Green Bay last Thursday night and losing QB Brian Hoyer, but they're actually upgraded by half a point with the return of Jay Cutler.
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| RANK | TEAM | OCT. 18 | OCT. 25 | SB ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 28 | 28.5 | 2-1 |
| 2 | Minnesota | 27 | 26.5 | 8-1 |
| T-3 | Seattle | 25 | 25 | 6-1 |
| T-3 | Green Bay | 25 | 25 | 10-1 |
| T-3 | Denver | 24 | 25 | 12-1 |
| T-3 | Arizona | 25 | 25 | 16-1 |
| 7 | Atlanta | 24 | 23.5 | 30-1 |
| 8 | Dallas | 23 | 23 | 8-1 |
| T-9 | Kansas City | 22.5 | 22.5 | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Buffalo | 23 | 22.5 | 80-1 |
| T-11 | Philadelphia | 21.5 | 22 | 40-1 |
| T-11 | Cincinnati | 21.5 | 22 | 40-1 |
| T-11 | Carolina | 22 | 22 | 80-1 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh | 22.5 | 21.5 | 16-1 |
| T-15 | Oakland | 20 | 21 | 25-1 |
| T-15 | San Diego | 20.5 | 21 | 60-1 |
| T-17 | New York (N) | 20 | 20.5 | 40-1 |
| T-17 | Houston | 21.5 | 20.5 | 50-1 |
| 19 | Indianapolis | 19 | 20 | 30-1 |
| T-20 | Washington | 19.5 | 19.5 | 60-1 |
| T-20 | Baltimore | 20 | 19.5 | 80-1 |
| 22 | Miami | 17.5 | 19 | 80-1 |
| T-23 | Detroit | 17.5 | 18.5 | 80-1 |
| T-23 | Tennessee | 19 | 18.5 | 100-1 |
| T-23 | Tampa Bay | 17.5 | 18.5 | 200-1 |
| T-23 | New York (A) | 18.5 | 18.5 | 500-1 |
| 27 | New Orleans | 17.5 | 17.5 | 200-1 |
| T-28 | Jacksonville | 18 | 17 | 300-1 |
| T-28 | Los Angeles | 17.5 | 17 | 300-1 |
| T-28 | Chicago | 16.5 | 17 | 2000-1 |
| T-31 | San Francisco | 14.5 | 13 | 9999-1 |
| T-31 | Cleveland | 13.5 | 13 | 9999-1 |
| Odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday, Oct. 25 |
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[h=2]Week 8 value plays[/h]Ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 12-8 ATS (60 percent) so far this season after going 0-2 ATS in Week 7 with the Steelers +7 against the Patriots and the Texans +7.5 against the Broncos.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 8 games during the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Vegas consensus line: Atlanta -3 (EVEN)
Vegas Ranks: Green Bay -1.5 (25-23.5)
Our panel has the Packers rated 1.5 points better than the Falcons on a neutral field, so even with Atlanta's home-field advantage (which didn't help it last Sunday against San Diego), the numbers say this game should be closer to pick 'em or maybe the Falcons as short home favorites. At +3 (and there's plenty of books without the -120 attached as of Tuesday morning), the Packers are a clear value play.
The play: Packers +3
Vegas consensus line: Seattle -3 (EVEN)
Vegas Ranks: Seattle -7.5 (25-17.5)
The raw numbers have the Seahawks as 7.5 points better than the Saints. Even with New Orleans' home-field advantage (which ain't what it used to be), we don't see how this line should be much below the key number of 7. The line looks like it should be around 4.5 or 5, so the price is cheap on Seattle.
The play: Seahawks -3 (EVEN)
Vegas consensus line: Carolina -2.5 (-120)
Vegas Ranks: Arizona -3 (25-22)
Our panel has the Cardinals as 3 points better than the Panthers on a neutral field, so even with Carolina's home-field advantage, we have this game right around pick 'em. Take Arizona plus any points.
The play: Cardinals +2.5 (EVEN).
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Vegas consensus line: Minnesota -5
Vegas Ranks: Minnesota -9.5 (26.5-17)
Even with the questionable decision by our panel to upgrade the Bears by half a point with Cutler returning, the Vikings are still rated 9.5 points better than the Bears on a neutral field. Chicago doesn't have much of a home-field advantage, so we don't see how this game isn't lined at 7, if not higher.
The play: Vikings -5.5
