Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 8 of the NFL
David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Home-field advantage in the NFL is typically assumed to be worth about three points to the spread, although there are exceptions. For example, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks have exceptional home crowds, while the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins are renowned for their poor turnouts. All home-field advantages are not created equal and, more importantly, they are almost always overvalued by casual bettors.
Since the start of the 2003 season, home teams have covered the spread at a 48.8 percent clip. That's hardly surprising for weekly readers who have heard this point reiterated ad nauseum, but bettors may not realize than the edge in picking the road team only exists because of divisional rivalries.
After a slow start to the season, my system picks rebounded with a 4-1 performance in Week 7. Using Bet Labs data analysis software, I'll look to continue that success with a new system that has gone <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>72-46 ATS (61.0 percent) and features two current game matches.
My research found that visitors have gone 659-575 ATS (53.4 percent) in divisional rivalries, but only 1,037-1,039 ATS (50 percent) against all other opponents. With tens of thousands of screaming fans creating excitement, casual bettors presume the value of home-field advantage is amplified in these highly anticipated divisional rivalries. In fact, the exact opposite is true.
Not only is home-field advantage largely mitigated by the familiarity between teams, but this public perception causes oddsmakers to shade their lines to account for public money. This assessment was verified by Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu. "I do think home-field advantage is lessened for division games," according to Cooley. "If they've been on the same team for a few years, players are familiar with the pregame and game logistics such as travel, hotel, locker room, crowd noise and the field itself."
Clearly there's been an edge taking NFL visitors in divisional games, but I speculated this advantage would be magnified when their opponent was on short rest. Bettors often overlook the importance of rest, as demonstrated by the performance of teams coming off a bye. Past research found that teams have covered the spread at a 53.1 percent clip following their bye week.
There are many factors to consider with teams playing on short rest. Injured players have less time to recover. Coaches have limited time to study game film and strategize. The weekly routine is shattered. "We do consider short weeks when creating the odds," Cooley said. "Altering practice schedules affects players, and short weeks are particularly cumbersome for teams dealing with multiple injuries."
Despite the inherent pitfalls of limited rest, casual bettors still pound home teams on short rest. That's particularly true in regards to home favorites.
According to my research, the home favorite has received a majority of public support in over 70 percent of their games. Sportsbooks are forced to shade their lines to account for the inevitable flood of public money coming in on the home favorite, which creates additional value for contrarian bettors willing to back the unpopular road 'dog.
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David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Home-field advantage in the NFL is typically assumed to be worth about three points to the spread, although there are exceptions. For example, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks have exceptional home crowds, while the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins are renowned for their poor turnouts. All home-field advantages are not created equal and, more importantly, they are almost always overvalued by casual bettors.
Since the start of the 2003 season, home teams have covered the spread at a 48.8 percent clip. That's hardly surprising for weekly readers who have heard this point reiterated ad nauseum, but bettors may not realize than the edge in picking the road team only exists because of divisional rivalries.
After a slow start to the season, my system picks rebounded with a 4-1 performance in Week 7. Using Bet Labs data analysis software, I'll look to continue that success with a new system that has gone <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>72-46 ATS (61.0 percent) and features two current game matches.
My research found that visitors have gone 659-575 ATS (53.4 percent) in divisional rivalries, but only 1,037-1,039 ATS (50 percent) against all other opponents. With tens of thousands of screaming fans creating excitement, casual bettors presume the value of home-field advantage is amplified in these highly anticipated divisional rivalries. In fact, the exact opposite is true.
Not only is home-field advantage largely mitigated by the familiarity between teams, but this public perception causes oddsmakers to shade their lines to account for public money. This assessment was verified by Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu. "I do think home-field advantage is lessened for division games," according to Cooley. "If they've been on the same team for a few years, players are familiar with the pregame and game logistics such as travel, hotel, locker room, crowd noise and the field itself."
Clearly there's been an edge taking NFL visitors in divisional games, but I speculated this advantage would be magnified when their opponent was on short rest. Bettors often overlook the importance of rest, as demonstrated by the performance of teams coming off a bye. Past research found that teams have covered the spread at a 53.1 percent clip following their bye week.
There are many factors to consider with teams playing on short rest. Injured players have less time to recover. Coaches have limited time to study game film and strategize. The weekly routine is shattered. "We do consider short weeks when creating the odds," Cooley said. "Altering practice schedules affects players, and short weeks are particularly cumbersome for teams dealing with multiple injuries."
Despite the inherent pitfalls of limited rest, casual bettors still pound home teams on short rest. That's particularly true in regards to home favorites.
According to my research, the home favorite has received a majority of public support in over 70 percent of their games. Sportsbooks are forced to shade their lines to account for the inevitable flood of public money coming in on the home favorite, which creates additional value for contrarian bettors willing to back the unpopular road 'dog.
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CRITERIA | RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
---|---|---|---|
Road team | 1696-1615 (51.2%) | +8.35 | +0.3% |
Road team, divisional game | 659-575 (53.4%) | +53.39 | +4.3% |
Road team, divisional game, opponent on short rest | 106-74 (58.9%) | +26.56 | +14.8% |
Road underdog, divisional game, opponent on short rest | 72-46 (61%) | +22.22 | +18.8% |
Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |