Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 8 of the NFL
David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Home-field advantage in the NFL is typically assumed to be worth about three points to the spread, although there are exceptions. For example, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks have exceptional home crowds, while the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins are renowned for their poor turnouts. All home-field advantages are not created equal and, more importantly, they are almost always overvalued by casual bettors.
Since the start of the 2003 season, home teams have covered the spread at a 48.8 percent clip. That's hardly surprising for weekly readers who have heard this point reiterated ad nauseum, but bettors may not realize than the edge in picking the road team only exists because of divisional rivalries.
After a slow start to the season, my system picks rebounded with a 4-1 performance in Week 7. Using Bet Labs data analysis software, I'll look to continue that success with a new system that has gone <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>72-46 ATS (61.0 percent) and features two current game matches.
My research found that visitors have gone 659-575 ATS (53.4 percent) in divisional rivalries, but only 1,037-1,039 ATS (50 percent) against all other opponents. With tens of thousands of screaming fans creating excitement, casual bettors presume the value of home-field advantage is amplified in these highly anticipated divisional rivalries. In fact, the exact opposite is true.
Not only is home-field advantage largely mitigated by the familiarity between teams, but this public perception causes oddsmakers to shade their lines to account for public money. This assessment was verified by Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu. "I do think home-field advantage is lessened for division games," according to Cooley. "If they've been on the same team for a few years, players are familiar with the pregame and game logistics such as travel, hotel, locker room, crowd noise and the field itself."
Clearly there's been an edge taking NFL visitors in divisional games, but I speculated this advantage would be magnified when their opponent was on short rest. Bettors often overlook the importance of rest, as demonstrated by the performance of teams coming off a bye. Past research found that teams have covered the spread at a 53.1 percent clip following their bye week.
There are many factors to consider with teams playing on short rest. Injured players have less time to recover. Coaches have limited time to study game film and strategize. The weekly routine is shattered. "We do consider short weeks when creating the odds," Cooley said. "Altering practice schedules affects players, and short weeks are particularly cumbersome for teams dealing with multiple injuries."
Despite the inherent pitfalls of limited rest, casual bettors still pound home teams on short rest. That's particularly true in regards to home favorites.
According to my research, the home favorite has received a majority of public support in over 70 percent of their games. Sportsbooks are forced to shade their lines to account for the inevitable flood of public money coming in on the home favorite, which creates additional value for contrarian bettors willing to back the unpopular road 'dog.
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</aside>Why does this work?
My analysis found that familiarity between teams levels the playing field, which disproportionately benefits the team getting points. Divisional rivalries also tend to feature less scoring, and past research discovered that underdogs perform well in games with low totals.
Oddsmakers understand what behaviors drive public betting, and they will typically shade their lines knowing that squares will pound the home favorite -- even when they're playing on short rest. Even though playing on short rest negatively impacts the team, sportsbooks don't need to adjust their number because the public will still back the favorite.
Getting an extra point or half-point based on public perception can increase your expected winning percentage up to one or two percent, which is crucial for long-term sports betting success.
It's also worth noting that scoring drops slightly in Thursday night games, which reinforces our findings that underdogs provide additional value in games with low totals. Furthermore, research has found that visitors perform significantly better than home teams on short rest. Casual bettors seem to believe travel is the most daunting aspect of playing on the short week, but it's practically an afterthought for oddsmakers.
This week there are two visitors playing against divisional opponents on short rest. Past results indicate these teams offer value, so we'll be backing them this week.
Week 8 system matches
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans
With both teams playing on short rest, the Titans opened as 3.5-point favorites at the Westgate SuperBook. That line was particularly interesting, since this game was listed as a pick 'em on the preseason lookahead lines. This indicates oddsmakers believe Tennessee has exceeded preseason expectations by 3.5 points, but its three wins have come against teams with a combined 6-15 record.
Public money has been all over the home favorite, with the Titans receiving 60 percent of tickets and 75 percent of total dollars wagered. This one-sided public support makes Jacksonville an ideal contrarian play.
The Jaguars fit the criteria for this season's Week 2 betting system and last season's Week 5 system, which focuses on bad teams in low scoring games. Jacksonville is also coming off a 17-point loss, which makes them an excellent buy-low candidate.
Marcus Mariota has gone just 1-8 ATS at home, and he's never covered the spread as a favorite. Bettors are overreacting to the Titans' three (unimpressive) wins, and that makes them a great sell-high candidate. This should be a low-scoring game, and I'm happy to snatch up Jacksonville plus the points.
The pick: Jaguars +3.5
San Diego Chargers (+5) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos are coming off of a decisive victory over the Texans on Monday Night Football, which means they'll likely be overvalued by casual bettors despite the short rest. It's also interesting to note that teams playing in their second consecutive road game have gone 508-405 ATS (55.6 percent), which further points toward value on the Chargers.
In his career, Philip Rivers has gone 37-23 ATS as an underdog, including a 17-7 ATS record as an underdog of at least 4.5-points. Denver's defense is among the best in the league, but Rivers has traditionally thrived against elite defenses. Against defenses allowing fewer than 16.5 points per game, Rivers has gone 11-5 ATS.
This should be another low-scoring game, and I'm more than happy to take the points in this divisional rivalry. My numbers indicate the Chargers have vastly underachieved this year, and they're a much better team than their 3-4 record indicates. From a contrarian standpoint it's not ideal they won last week, but they're still a solid value against the Broncos.
The pick: Chargers +5
David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Home-field advantage in the NFL is typically assumed to be worth about three points to the spread, although there are exceptions. For example, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks have exceptional home crowds, while the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins are renowned for their poor turnouts. All home-field advantages are not created equal and, more importantly, they are almost always overvalued by casual bettors.
Since the start of the 2003 season, home teams have covered the spread at a 48.8 percent clip. That's hardly surprising for weekly readers who have heard this point reiterated ad nauseum, but bettors may not realize than the edge in picking the road team only exists because of divisional rivalries.
After a slow start to the season, my system picks rebounded with a 4-1 performance in Week 7. Using Bet Labs data analysis software, I'll look to continue that success with a new system that has gone <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>72-46 ATS (61.0 percent) and features two current game matches.
My research found that visitors have gone 659-575 ATS (53.4 percent) in divisional rivalries, but only 1,037-1,039 ATS (50 percent) against all other opponents. With tens of thousands of screaming fans creating excitement, casual bettors presume the value of home-field advantage is amplified in these highly anticipated divisional rivalries. In fact, the exact opposite is true.
Not only is home-field advantage largely mitigated by the familiarity between teams, but this public perception causes oddsmakers to shade their lines to account for public money. This assessment was verified by Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu. "I do think home-field advantage is lessened for division games," according to Cooley. "If they've been on the same team for a few years, players are familiar with the pregame and game logistics such as travel, hotel, locker room, crowd noise and the field itself."
Clearly there's been an edge taking NFL visitors in divisional games, but I speculated this advantage would be magnified when their opponent was on short rest. Bettors often overlook the importance of rest, as demonstrated by the performance of teams coming off a bye. Past research found that teams have covered the spread at a 53.1 percent clip following their bye week.
There are many factors to consider with teams playing on short rest. Injured players have less time to recover. Coaches have limited time to study game film and strategize. The weekly routine is shattered. "We do consider short weeks when creating the odds," Cooley said. "Altering practice schedules affects players, and short weeks are particularly cumbersome for teams dealing with multiple injuries."
Despite the inherent pitfalls of limited rest, casual bettors still pound home teams on short rest. That's particularly true in regards to home favorites.
According to my research, the home favorite has received a majority of public support in over 70 percent of their games. Sportsbooks are forced to shade their lines to account for the inevitable flood of public money coming in on the home favorite, which creates additional value for contrarian bettors willing to back the unpopular road 'dog.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Road team | 1696-1615 (51.2%) | +8.35 | +0.3% |
| Road team, divisional game | 659-575 (53.4%) | +53.39 | +4.3% |
| Road team, divisional game, opponent on short rest | 106-74 (58.9%) | +26.56 | +14.8% |
| Road underdog, divisional game, opponent on short rest | 72-46 (61%) | +22.22 | +18.8% |
| Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<tbody>
</tbody>
</aside>Why does this work?
My analysis found that familiarity between teams levels the playing field, which disproportionately benefits the team getting points. Divisional rivalries also tend to feature less scoring, and past research discovered that underdogs perform well in games with low totals.
Oddsmakers understand what behaviors drive public betting, and they will typically shade their lines knowing that squares will pound the home favorite -- even when they're playing on short rest. Even though playing on short rest negatively impacts the team, sportsbooks don't need to adjust their number because the public will still back the favorite.
Getting an extra point or half-point based on public perception can increase your expected winning percentage up to one or two percent, which is crucial for long-term sports betting success.
It's also worth noting that scoring drops slightly in Thursday night games, which reinforces our findings that underdogs provide additional value in games with low totals. Furthermore, research has found that visitors perform significantly better than home teams on short rest. Casual bettors seem to believe travel is the most daunting aspect of playing on the short week, but it's practically an afterthought for oddsmakers.
This week there are two visitors playing against divisional opponents on short rest. Past results indicate these teams offer value, so we'll be backing them this week.
Week 8 system matches
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans
With both teams playing on short rest, the Titans opened as 3.5-point favorites at the Westgate SuperBook. That line was particularly interesting, since this game was listed as a pick 'em on the preseason lookahead lines. This indicates oddsmakers believe Tennessee has exceeded preseason expectations by 3.5 points, but its three wins have come against teams with a combined 6-15 record.
Public money has been all over the home favorite, with the Titans receiving 60 percent of tickets and 75 percent of total dollars wagered. This one-sided public support makes Jacksonville an ideal contrarian play.
The Jaguars fit the criteria for this season's Week 2 betting system and last season's Week 5 system, which focuses on bad teams in low scoring games. Jacksonville is also coming off a 17-point loss, which makes them an excellent buy-low candidate.
Marcus Mariota has gone just 1-8 ATS at home, and he's never covered the spread as a favorite. Bettors are overreacting to the Titans' three (unimpressive) wins, and that makes them a great sell-high candidate. This should be a low-scoring game, and I'm happy to snatch up Jacksonville plus the points.
The pick: Jaguars +3.5
San Diego Chargers (+5) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos are coming off of a decisive victory over the Texans on Monday Night Football, which means they'll likely be overvalued by casual bettors despite the short rest. It's also interesting to note that teams playing in their second consecutive road game have gone 508-405 ATS (55.6 percent), which further points toward value on the Chargers.
In his career, Philip Rivers has gone 37-23 ATS as an underdog, including a 17-7 ATS record as an underdog of at least 4.5-points. Denver's defense is among the best in the league, but Rivers has traditionally thrived against elite defenses. Against defenses allowing fewer than 16.5 points per game, Rivers has gone 11-5 ATS.
This should be another low-scoring game, and I'm more than happy to take the points in this divisional rivalry. My numbers indicate the Chargers have vastly underachieved this year, and they're a much better team than their 3-4 record indicates. From a contrarian standpoint it's not ideal they won last week, but they're still a solid value against the Broncos.
The pick: Chargers +5
