[h=1]2016-17 NBA season betting guide[/h]Dave Tuley Erin Rynning
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- When I told people this week that I was working on an NBA season betting guide, the most common response was "Why?"
The conventional wisdom is that we should just skip the regular season because the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are on a collision course to meet again in the NBA Finals. Any future-book bets on any other teams are seen as throwing money away. My ESPN Chalk colleague Erin Rynning even says that the only way to bet futures on any other team is if you can predict injuries to LeBron James or to one of the Warriors' stars (and in the case of the Warriors, who added Kevin Durant to an already loaded roster, you might need to take away more than two stars to keep them from contending).
But we're going ahead with this NBA betting guide anyway because, as I like to tell the naysayers: Even if we concede that the Warriors (prohibitive 2-7 favorites to win the Western Conference) and Cavaliers (1-4 to win the Eastern Conference) are destined to meet in the Finals, there are still plenty of betting opportunities this season, as there are 1,230 regular-season games and between 60 and 105 playoff games (the former if all series are sweeps; the latter if all go the maximum 7 games). Besides, nowadays more people bet their "futures" on over/under season win totals. With traditional futures, if you like a team, they have to win the title (or their conference if you're betting that way), but with over/under season win totals they just have to exceed expectations to cash the bet. You also have the option to face a team by betting them to fall short of the season win total.
So I'll start with a quick note on future bets for this season, then Rynning and I will give our best over/under season win totals and some teams we're looking to bet and fade in games early this season.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Futures redux
Back on June 19, right after the Cavaliers beat the Warriors in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, I made my "Way-to-Early NBA Title Bets for 2017" here at ESPN Chalk. After suggesting a bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder, if you thought Durant would re-sign with them, I gave out my best value bet as the Toronto Raptors at 25-1. They had won their first conference semifinal in franchise history and gave the eventual champions a scare as the Eastern Conference finals was tied 2-2 before the Cavaliers prevailed. I still feel they have the best chance to knock off Cleveland, though in hindsight, that wasn't the best time to bet them. Now, if you want to take a flyer on them, the Westgate has them at 40-1, but if I were going to reload on them, I would go with them at 13-1 to win the East (the only other future bet I'm considering is to take the Raptors at 6-5 to win the Atlantic Division over the Boston Celtics).
Over/under season win totals
Minnesota Timberwolves
Erin Rynning: Minnesota was fortunate to add key pieces Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins among others for supreme building blocks. Of course, Towns especially flashed his potential in his rookie season, averaging more than 18 points per game and 10 rebounds as the counting statistics were just the appetizer for the 7-footer's potential. No question, the Timberwolves can move forward with their plethora of young talent, but it gets much better with the addition of Tom Thibodeau as their new head coach. He proved himself as a top-shelf coach before the Bulls essentially quit on him in his final year in Chicago. The Bulls' drop-off in play is also evidence of excellence. Thibodeau owns a 255-139 regular season record as lead man on the bench, but his defensive prowess will be the vital link with this developing team. Minnesota finished the 2015-16 campaign ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, but with their new system and capable defensive athleticism, the top 10 is certainly possible. The Timberwolves will feature rapid ascension with huge difference-makers Towns and Wiggins in recent drafts, while now paired with sound basketball evolution with Thibodeau will prove a dangerous combination.
Play: Timberwolves OVER 42 wins
Toronto Raptors
Dave Tuley: This is where I expect most people who are with me on the Raptors to place their bets. The over/under is set pretty low at 50.5 compared to other top contenders, and also consider that the Raptors won 56 games last season. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the stars (and both won gold medals at the Olympics), but I also like the supporting cast. Jonas Valanciunas continues to improve at center and they added Jared Sullinger at power forward, though he will miss the first two or three months following foot surgery. Playing in the Eastern Conference also helps them in picking up some easier wins along the way than if they were playing in the deeper Western Conference.
Play: Raptors OVER 50.5 wins
Denver Nuggets
Rynning: The Nuggets' brass has done a brilliant job putting the franchise in position as a benchmark to start making waves in the Western Conference. Their roster is full of potential, as good health and continuing development would lead to a promising campaign. Nikola Jokic is the cornerstone building piece as the versatile 21-year-old big man is the catalyst for the Nuggets' success. However, the starting backcourt of Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay and expected starting center Jusuf Nurkic will need at least marginal improvement for the Nuggets to project as a playoff contender in the West. Of course, a healthy season from go-to scorer Danilo Gallinari would go a long way for the Nuggets' playoff chances as well. Importantly, head coach Michael Malone is a solid fit for moving this young club forward in their development on both ends of the court. The Nuggets might be under the radar to start in the 2016-17 season, but they'll have a great chance to shine brightly late.
Play: Nuggets OVER 37.5 wins
New York Knicks
Rynning: Take your pick: age, depth, chemistry and/or a battle of wills. It's difficult to see the vision of Phil Jackson working out again this year in New York. The Knicks won 32 games a season ago, and the additions of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah hardly seem like the answer at this stage of their careers. Both are limited by past injuries at his point, while a healthy Carmelo Anthony is a question mark as well. Regrettably, this roster is limited in the depth department as well, while the expected injury bug will wreak havoc on the court. Of course, when dealing with this Knicks' organization, chemistry is a dilemma, whether on the court, off the court or all mixed together. The likes of Rose, Anthony and Brandon Jennings as the expected catalysts for team success, and the improvement of others on the hardwood, feels like a supreme long shot. Again, there are more issues with the expected success with this team, like perimeter shooting and defense, but for it to all come together for the Knicks certainly seems like wishful thinking.
Play: Knicks UNDER 40.5
Miami Heat
Tuley: This team has obviously been on a downward trend since James took his talents back to Cleveland. Now, Dwyane Wade has left for Chicago, Chris Bosh is gone due to his blood clots, and other key contributors like Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Amar'e Stoudemire are also gone. This is clearly a team that is rebuilding and willing to take a horrendous season or two to accumulate some lottery picks. Donald Whiteside is a star, but he can't do it alone. The win total is relatively low, but I don't think it was set low enough for the team they're putting on the court.
Play: Heat UNDER 34.5
Teams we're looking to bet/fade
Tuley: I find it hard to specify teams that I'm looking to bet or fade on a consistent basis, as it can change from night to night, depending on the lines. I might love a team as an underdog one night, but their next game I might feel that they're overvalued as a favorite and be willing to fade them. So, here's my list of teams I'm looking to get involved with, and it mostly means that I'll take the teams I like if they're installed as underdogs or perhaps as short favorites, while I'm mostly looking to fade those teams as faves.
Tuley's teams to take: Raptors, Celtics, Timberwolves, Houston Rockets (live 'dogs and look to overs).
Tuley's teams to fade: Warriors (lines will be ultra-inflated), Thunder, Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls.
Rynning has two teams he's specifically looking to fade to start the season.
Bet against - Chicago Bulls
Rynning: The Bulls continued their downward trend last season with a 42-40 record, while missing the playoffs for the first time since 2007. With the continued erosion passed down by the front office, I expect this downfall to play on. Whether it's the draft, roster decisions or coach hiring, the Bulls' brass continues to shoot blanks. Yes, Fred Hoiberg entered a tricky situation a season ago, but he's cut out as more of a college coach than an NBA man. It seemed one of the reasons Hoiberg was brought into Chicago was to adjust the style of offense to a more free-flowing, pace and 3-point shooting team. Again, the direction is highly questionable, considering the personnel moves made in the offseason with bringing in Rajon Rondo, Michael Carter-Williams and Wade. Essentially, about the three most opposite players to the system one could unearth. The Bulls should be rather easy to defend by packing the paint and going under screens. Too many square pegs for round holes, as the Bulls look like a team to fade out of the box.
Bet against - Sacramento Kings
Rynning: The dysfunctional Kings stumbled to 33 wins last season, and it's difficult to foresee a turnaround with this year's club. The building blocks of Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins will attempt to lead the way, however from the start, this was a match for success only in fantasy basketball. New head coach Dave Joerger could prove a positive hire for the Kings, but it will take time, while he works out the many kinks provided by their roster. Style of play is a key question mark, as the Kings led the NBA in pace of play last season, but it doesn't seem the right fit for competitiveness. The dagger for an expected slow start is a problematic schedule and the loss of point guard Darren Collisonfor the first eight games. Naturally, his replacement at the point guard position is Ty Lawson, which is seemingly the right fit for team dysfunction.
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- When I told people this week that I was working on an NBA season betting guide, the most common response was "Why?"
The conventional wisdom is that we should just skip the regular season because the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are on a collision course to meet again in the NBA Finals. Any future-book bets on any other teams are seen as throwing money away. My ESPN Chalk colleague Erin Rynning even says that the only way to bet futures on any other team is if you can predict injuries to LeBron James or to one of the Warriors' stars (and in the case of the Warriors, who added Kevin Durant to an already loaded roster, you might need to take away more than two stars to keep them from contending).
But we're going ahead with this NBA betting guide anyway because, as I like to tell the naysayers: Even if we concede that the Warriors (prohibitive 2-7 favorites to win the Western Conference) and Cavaliers (1-4 to win the Eastern Conference) are destined to meet in the Finals, there are still plenty of betting opportunities this season, as there are 1,230 regular-season games and between 60 and 105 playoff games (the former if all series are sweeps; the latter if all go the maximum 7 games). Besides, nowadays more people bet their "futures" on over/under season win totals. With traditional futures, if you like a team, they have to win the title (or their conference if you're betting that way), but with over/under season win totals they just have to exceed expectations to cash the bet. You also have the option to face a team by betting them to fall short of the season win total.
So I'll start with a quick note on future bets for this season, then Rynning and I will give our best over/under season win totals and some teams we're looking to bet and fade in games early this season.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Futures redux
Back on June 19, right after the Cavaliers beat the Warriors in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, I made my "Way-to-Early NBA Title Bets for 2017" here at ESPN Chalk. After suggesting a bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder, if you thought Durant would re-sign with them, I gave out my best value bet as the Toronto Raptors at 25-1. They had won their first conference semifinal in franchise history and gave the eventual champions a scare as the Eastern Conference finals was tied 2-2 before the Cavaliers prevailed. I still feel they have the best chance to knock off Cleveland, though in hindsight, that wasn't the best time to bet them. Now, if you want to take a flyer on them, the Westgate has them at 40-1, but if I were going to reload on them, I would go with them at 13-1 to win the East (the only other future bet I'm considering is to take the Raptors at 6-5 to win the Atlantic Division over the Boston Celtics).
Over/under season win totals
Minnesota Timberwolves
Erin Rynning: Minnesota was fortunate to add key pieces Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins among others for supreme building blocks. Of course, Towns especially flashed his potential in his rookie season, averaging more than 18 points per game and 10 rebounds as the counting statistics were just the appetizer for the 7-footer's potential. No question, the Timberwolves can move forward with their plethora of young talent, but it gets much better with the addition of Tom Thibodeau as their new head coach. He proved himself as a top-shelf coach before the Bulls essentially quit on him in his final year in Chicago. The Bulls' drop-off in play is also evidence of excellence. Thibodeau owns a 255-139 regular season record as lead man on the bench, but his defensive prowess will be the vital link with this developing team. Minnesota finished the 2015-16 campaign ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, but with their new system and capable defensive athleticism, the top 10 is certainly possible. The Timberwolves will feature rapid ascension with huge difference-makers Towns and Wiggins in recent drafts, while now paired with sound basketball evolution with Thibodeau will prove a dangerous combination.
Play: Timberwolves OVER 42 wins
Toronto Raptors
Dave Tuley: This is where I expect most people who are with me on the Raptors to place their bets. The over/under is set pretty low at 50.5 compared to other top contenders, and also consider that the Raptors won 56 games last season. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the stars (and both won gold medals at the Olympics), but I also like the supporting cast. Jonas Valanciunas continues to improve at center and they added Jared Sullinger at power forward, though he will miss the first two or three months following foot surgery. Playing in the Eastern Conference also helps them in picking up some easier wins along the way than if they were playing in the deeper Western Conference.
Play: Raptors OVER 50.5 wins
Denver Nuggets
Rynning: The Nuggets' brass has done a brilliant job putting the franchise in position as a benchmark to start making waves in the Western Conference. Their roster is full of potential, as good health and continuing development would lead to a promising campaign. Nikola Jokic is the cornerstone building piece as the versatile 21-year-old big man is the catalyst for the Nuggets' success. However, the starting backcourt of Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay and expected starting center Jusuf Nurkic will need at least marginal improvement for the Nuggets to project as a playoff contender in the West. Of course, a healthy season from go-to scorer Danilo Gallinari would go a long way for the Nuggets' playoff chances as well. Importantly, head coach Michael Malone is a solid fit for moving this young club forward in their development on both ends of the court. The Nuggets might be under the radar to start in the 2016-17 season, but they'll have a great chance to shine brightly late.
Play: Nuggets OVER 37.5 wins
New York Knicks
Rynning: Take your pick: age, depth, chemistry and/or a battle of wills. It's difficult to see the vision of Phil Jackson working out again this year in New York. The Knicks won 32 games a season ago, and the additions of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah hardly seem like the answer at this stage of their careers. Both are limited by past injuries at his point, while a healthy Carmelo Anthony is a question mark as well. Regrettably, this roster is limited in the depth department as well, while the expected injury bug will wreak havoc on the court. Of course, when dealing with this Knicks' organization, chemistry is a dilemma, whether on the court, off the court or all mixed together. The likes of Rose, Anthony and Brandon Jennings as the expected catalysts for team success, and the improvement of others on the hardwood, feels like a supreme long shot. Again, there are more issues with the expected success with this team, like perimeter shooting and defense, but for it to all come together for the Knicks certainly seems like wishful thinking.
Play: Knicks UNDER 40.5
Miami Heat
Tuley: This team has obviously been on a downward trend since James took his talents back to Cleveland. Now, Dwyane Wade has left for Chicago, Chris Bosh is gone due to his blood clots, and other key contributors like Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Amar'e Stoudemire are also gone. This is clearly a team that is rebuilding and willing to take a horrendous season or two to accumulate some lottery picks. Donald Whiteside is a star, but he can't do it alone. The win total is relatively low, but I don't think it was set low enough for the team they're putting on the court.
Play: Heat UNDER 34.5
Teams we're looking to bet/fade
Tuley: I find it hard to specify teams that I'm looking to bet or fade on a consistent basis, as it can change from night to night, depending on the lines. I might love a team as an underdog one night, but their next game I might feel that they're overvalued as a favorite and be willing to fade them. So, here's my list of teams I'm looking to get involved with, and it mostly means that I'll take the teams I like if they're installed as underdogs or perhaps as short favorites, while I'm mostly looking to fade those teams as faves.
Tuley's teams to take: Raptors, Celtics, Timberwolves, Houston Rockets (live 'dogs and look to overs).
Tuley's teams to fade: Warriors (lines will be ultra-inflated), Thunder, Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls.
Rynning has two teams he's specifically looking to fade to start the season.
Bet against - Chicago Bulls
Rynning: The Bulls continued their downward trend last season with a 42-40 record, while missing the playoffs for the first time since 2007. With the continued erosion passed down by the front office, I expect this downfall to play on. Whether it's the draft, roster decisions or coach hiring, the Bulls' brass continues to shoot blanks. Yes, Fred Hoiberg entered a tricky situation a season ago, but he's cut out as more of a college coach than an NBA man. It seemed one of the reasons Hoiberg was brought into Chicago was to adjust the style of offense to a more free-flowing, pace and 3-point shooting team. Again, the direction is highly questionable, considering the personnel moves made in the offseason with bringing in Rajon Rondo, Michael Carter-Williams and Wade. Essentially, about the three most opposite players to the system one could unearth. The Bulls should be rather easy to defend by packing the paint and going under screens. Too many square pegs for round holes, as the Bulls look like a team to fade out of the box.
Bet against - Sacramento Kings
Rynning: The dysfunctional Kings stumbled to 33 wins last season, and it's difficult to foresee a turnaround with this year's club. The building blocks of Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins will attempt to lead the way, however from the start, this was a match for success only in fantasy basketball. New head coach Dave Joerger could prove a positive hire for the Kings, but it will take time, while he works out the many kinks provided by their roster. Style of play is a key question mark, as the Kings led the NBA in pace of play last season, but it doesn't seem the right fit for competitiveness. The dagger for an expected slow start is a problematic schedule and the loss of point guard Darren Collisonfor the first eight games. Naturally, his replacement at the point guard position is Ty Lawson, which is seemingly the right fit for team dysfunction.
