[h=1]How to bet Minnesota-Chicago[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 8 games, including Monday night's Minnesota-Chicago matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears[/h]Spread: Opened Minnesota -4; now Minnesota -4.5
Total: Opened 41; now 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 86 percent Minnesota
Public perception: The Vikings let down backers for the first time in a long time in last week's loss to Philadelphia (10-game cover streak stretching back to last season), but the public is still in full support of them, especially against a Bears team that not many people are looking to back. Wiseguys' view: Early sharp bettors took the opening line of Minnesota -4 and bet it up to as high as 6 before the buyback came on the Bears. It's mostly split now. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Dave Tuley's take: The Bears' only win this season was as home underdogs against the Lions in Week 4, and they get quarterback Jay Cutler back (he's not much of an upgrade, if any, over Brian Hoyer, but certainly still better than Matt Barkley). I would normally look to the home 'dog on Monday Night Football, but it's hard to pull the trigger on the Bears, especially with Cutler having to face the Vikings' top-ranked defense (279.5 yards per game and only 14 points allowed per game). Besides, the NFL Vegas Rankings we're a part of here at ESPN Chalk has this line as closer to a full touchdown.
Instead, I'm going to take the under and count on the Vikings' defense to set the pace and for quarterback Sam Bradford to just play ball-control, not take full advantage of the Bears' weak secondary and just grind out a victory.
The pick: Under 40.5* (lean to Chicago +4.5).
Erin Rynning: Welcome back, Cutler, and just in time for the NFL's top-ranked defense. It wasn't a shock with the Bears' offense perking up with Brian Hoyer replacing Cutler. Of course, Hoyer is knocked out as Cutler garners the task to tame the physical Vikings. Making matters trickier for the Bears will be a banged-up offensive line, including Josh Sitton expected to miss the game. I expect the Bears' defense to improve as the season progresses, as the unit was hit hard by the injury bug to start the campaign; it is steadily getting healthier (including the return of Pernell McPhee last week).
Minnesota's offense is 31st in the NFL in total offense, which shouldn't come as a surprise, considering the key injures on the unit. The Monday night affair sets up as a low-scoring affair with a lean to the under and official play at 41 or greater.
Play: Under at 41 or more
Rufus Peabody: Last week is a great example of why you can't overreact to a few games in the NFL. Bradford looked good early this season, with no interceptions heading into last week, but he threw a pick and was sacked six times in a dismal outing in Philadelphia. Four or five games shouldn't completely change our opinion of someone with a track record as long as Bradford's. Minnesota's offense has been pretty bad, fundamentally, with 2.77 yards per rush from running backs ranking last in the NFL and a play success rate of 42.3 percent, which ranks third from last. Yes, Minnesota's defense is elite (third in Massey-Peabody), but I do expect Chicago's offense to be better with Cutler. I make the Vikings a 2.2-point favorite, so I like Chicago in this spot.
Pick: Chicago +5.5, Over 40.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Minnesota -2.2; total: 44.1
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=3]229.5 pass yards by Sam Bradford (O/U -110)[/h]John Parolin: Bradford's average throw has traveled 6.6 yards downfield this season, the shortest of any qualified quarterback in the league; in fact, half of Bradford's pass attempts have been 5 yards downfield or shorter. This is a conservative passing attack designed to prevent turnovers. The Bears have been pretty good on those throws -- Chicago's defense has allowed the second-best yards per attempt average in the league.
But that's only half of Bradford's attempts, and part of his success this year compared to years past has been on his intermediate passes. Though he doesn't do it often, he has completed 60 percent of his throws deeper than 10 yards downfield (24-40), good for fifth in the league. Here is where we find that vulnerability in the Chicago defense. The Bears have allowed a 55.3 completion percentage on those throws this season, seventh-worst in the league.
Bradford is averaging 33 pass attempts a game, so approximately 16.5 of those being short throws at 4.7 yards per attempt (averaging Bradford's average with the Bears defense) will net him around 78 yards. He would need to make up 152 more yards with his other 16.5 throws -- not an unreasonable expectation given Chicago's inconsistent play on downfield throws.
The play: Over
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 8 games, including Monday night's Minnesota-Chicago matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Total: Opened 41; now 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 86 percent Minnesota
Public perception: The Vikings let down backers for the first time in a long time in last week's loss to Philadelphia (10-game cover streak stretching back to last season), but the public is still in full support of them, especially against a Bears team that not many people are looking to back. Wiseguys' view: Early sharp bettors took the opening line of Minnesota -4 and bet it up to as high as 6 before the buyback came on the Bears. It's mostly split now. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Dave Tuley's take: The Bears' only win this season was as home underdogs against the Lions in Week 4, and they get quarterback Jay Cutler back (he's not much of an upgrade, if any, over Brian Hoyer, but certainly still better than Matt Barkley). I would normally look to the home 'dog on Monday Night Football, but it's hard to pull the trigger on the Bears, especially with Cutler having to face the Vikings' top-ranked defense (279.5 yards per game and only 14 points allowed per game). Besides, the NFL Vegas Rankings we're a part of here at ESPN Chalk has this line as closer to a full touchdown.
Instead, I'm going to take the under and count on the Vikings' defense to set the pace and for quarterback Sam Bradford to just play ball-control, not take full advantage of the Bears' weak secondary and just grind out a victory.
The pick: Under 40.5* (lean to Chicago +4.5).
Erin Rynning: Welcome back, Cutler, and just in time for the NFL's top-ranked defense. It wasn't a shock with the Bears' offense perking up with Brian Hoyer replacing Cutler. Of course, Hoyer is knocked out as Cutler garners the task to tame the physical Vikings. Making matters trickier for the Bears will be a banged-up offensive line, including Josh Sitton expected to miss the game. I expect the Bears' defense to improve as the season progresses, as the unit was hit hard by the injury bug to start the campaign; it is steadily getting healthier (including the return of Pernell McPhee last week).
Minnesota's offense is 31st in the NFL in total offense, which shouldn't come as a surprise, considering the key injures on the unit. The Monday night affair sets up as a low-scoring affair with a lean to the under and official play at 41 or greater.
Play: Under at 41 or more
Rufus Peabody: Last week is a great example of why you can't overreact to a few games in the NFL. Bradford looked good early this season, with no interceptions heading into last week, but he threw a pick and was sacked six times in a dismal outing in Philadelphia. Four or five games shouldn't completely change our opinion of someone with a track record as long as Bradford's. Minnesota's offense has been pretty bad, fundamentally, with 2.77 yards per rush from running backs ranking last in the NFL and a play success rate of 42.3 percent, which ranks third from last. Yes, Minnesota's defense is elite (third in Massey-Peabody), but I do expect Chicago's offense to be better with Cutler. I make the Vikings a 2.2-point favorite, so I like Chicago in this spot.
Pick: Chicago +5.5, Over 40.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Minnesota -2.2; total: 44.1
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=3]229.5 pass yards by Sam Bradford (O/U -110)[/h]John Parolin: Bradford's average throw has traveled 6.6 yards downfield this season, the shortest of any qualified quarterback in the league; in fact, half of Bradford's pass attempts have been 5 yards downfield or shorter. This is a conservative passing attack designed to prevent turnovers. The Bears have been pretty good on those throws -- Chicago's defense has allowed the second-best yards per attempt average in the league.
But that's only half of Bradford's attempts, and part of his success this year compared to years past has been on his intermediate passes. Though he doesn't do it often, he has completed 60 percent of his throws deeper than 10 yards downfield (24-40), good for fifth in the league. Here is where we find that vulnerability in the Chicago defense. The Bears have allowed a 55.3 completion percentage on those throws this season, seventh-worst in the league.
Bradford is averaging 33 pass attempts a game, so approximately 16.5 of those being short throws at 4.7 yards per attempt (averaging Bradford's average with the Bears defense) will net him around 78 yards. He would need to make up 152 more yards with his other 16.5 throws -- not an unreasonable expectation given Chicago's inconsistent play on downfield throws.
The play: Over
