[h=1]How to bet World Series Game 6[/h]MLB Vegas Experts
ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
On Sunday night, the Chicago Cubs avoided the ignominy of being swept at home and watching the Cleveland Indians celebrate a world championship in front of the Wrigley Field faithful. Instead, the rabid hometown fans -- and a television audience whose size trounced those watching Sunday Night Football -- were treated to a taut affair that briefly saw the Indians 18 outs away from a title before Kris Bryant changed the course of the game, and perhaps the series with a home run to lead off the fourth inning.
So the baseball caravan returns to Progressive Field and despite the path the Series has taken to get here, there is no doubt the Indians and their fans would have gladly taken this scenario -- up three games to two with two games left to play at home -- before the series began. In this setting, the Indians are a little more than 2-1 favorites to win the World Series, which has roughly flipped the script compared to when they last walked off the very same field at the end of Game 2.
Despite those current series odds, the Cubs are solid favorites tonight<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">, which implies Game 7, if necessary, will be viewed by oddsmakers as something between tonight's odds and a toss-up affair. Given the size of the national audience apparently riveted to this Series, I think baseball fans everywhere who aren't rooting for the Indians might take a look at these teams returning to Cleveland tonight and think, to borrow the words of the greatest Cubs player of all time, Ernie Banks, "Let's play two."</offer>
To see if our Chalk handicappers think a seventh game will be necessary for the third time this decade we turn to Joe Peta (2-2 for the series, -1.3 units) and Dave Tuley (4-3, +1.40) both of whom have selected the Cubs to win the series, albeit at much different prices. Peta holds a -210 ticket while Tuley bargain shopped after Game 1 and picked up the Cubs at -115.
Westgate line: Chicago Cubs (Arrieta)-140 at Cleveland Indians (Tomlin) +130
Over/under: 7 (-120 over)
Game 6 PickCenter: 55 percent picking Cleveland
Joe Peta: One of the fun things about writing daily for a series that goes six of seven games is the ability to conduct a comparative pricing analysis. When Josh Tomlin started Game 3 versus Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs were listed as -220/+200 favorites at first pitch. That game, of course, was at Wrigley Field, and applying the standard 8 percent adjustment for home field versus a neutral location (applied twice as we're switching to Cleveland) yields an equivalent line of -155/+145 for tonight's game.
However, Jake Arrieta, not Hendricks is on the mound tonight for the Cubs, and the line is actually -140/+130 so we can conclude that, with all else held equal, oddsmakers are assigning a roughly 2.5 percent drop in the Cubs' win probability due to Arrieta replacing Hendricks. Assuming six innings of work from a starter, at most, and looking at skill-based comparison of both hurlers, I think the drop is a bit much. Your mileage may vary, but it's helpful to at least attempt to figure out if there is any momentum, or extra home-field premium being applied to tonight's odds.
As you know if you've been reading these game-by-game previews, the way the Cubs lost Game 3 flummoxed me. While their starter was twirling a shutout, they struck out just one time in 17 plate appearances versus a flyball pitcher, with the wind blowing out at Wrigley, and an ex-catcher playing left field and ... if Cleveland pops champagne tonight or tomorrow, that is going to loom as the game that got away from the Cubs.
I liked them on Friday against Tomlin and I like them again tonight but, admittedly, thanks to the conditions and environment on Friday, it's not with the same conviction as in Game 3.
I'm still clinging to this fact that I mentioned before Game 5: Theo Epstein served as the architect of one curse-breaking franchise and, even when they were in a 3-2 hole in 2004, it was deeper than this. The Red Sox were +130 underdogs in their Game 6 ALCS matchup with the Yankees. Cubs fans may not think so, but it still looks easier for them to break their curse than it did for the Red Sox back in 2004.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -140
Dave Tuley: The unders improved to 4-1 as the series continues to proceed as I projected with pitchers' duels, though I got a little too cute with betting the Cubs -1.5 on the run line. But that's OK as I didn't have a full unit on that and we got the series heading back to Cleveland. I'll continue to sit on my Cubs -115 series wager but while I rarely lay more than -120, the Cubs priced at -140 with Arrieta against Tomlin looks fair. Arrieta shut down the Indians in Game 2 at Cleveland and I expect him to do the same here. I'm tempted to lay the 1.5 runs again, but the +120 price isn't too appealing, plus Tomlin kept the Cubs from hitting the ball out of Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out, so we might not get the blowout needed. (Plus, I don't expect Tomlin to go too deep into the game as Terry Francona will probably rely on his stellar bullpen again).
For those reasons, I'll fire again with the under in Game 6. It's set at 7 with -120 on the over, so we get even money on the under. Joe West is behind the plate, which isn't really a big plus or minus for our purposes. The under was a modest 17-15 in games with him behind the plate this year, though he was 43-22-3 (66.2 percent) with the over in 2014-15 but much closer to 50/50 since 2005 at 205-189-21 (52 percent) with the over. Again, as I've written before, the umps have been a secondary consideration with these unders as the handicapping has said we would get low-scoring games, and that's what has happened so far (and hopefully continues).
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -140, Under (EVEN)
ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
On Sunday night, the Chicago Cubs avoided the ignominy of being swept at home and watching the Cleveland Indians celebrate a world championship in front of the Wrigley Field faithful. Instead, the rabid hometown fans -- and a television audience whose size trounced those watching Sunday Night Football -- were treated to a taut affair that briefly saw the Indians 18 outs away from a title before Kris Bryant changed the course of the game, and perhaps the series with a home run to lead off the fourth inning.
So the baseball caravan returns to Progressive Field and despite the path the Series has taken to get here, there is no doubt the Indians and their fans would have gladly taken this scenario -- up three games to two with two games left to play at home -- before the series began. In this setting, the Indians are a little more than 2-1 favorites to win the World Series, which has roughly flipped the script compared to when they last walked off the very same field at the end of Game 2.
Despite those current series odds, the Cubs are solid favorites tonight<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">, which implies Game 7, if necessary, will be viewed by oddsmakers as something between tonight's odds and a toss-up affair. Given the size of the national audience apparently riveted to this Series, I think baseball fans everywhere who aren't rooting for the Indians might take a look at these teams returning to Cleveland tonight and think, to borrow the words of the greatest Cubs player of all time, Ernie Banks, "Let's play two."</offer>
To see if our Chalk handicappers think a seventh game will be necessary for the third time this decade we turn to Joe Peta (2-2 for the series, -1.3 units) and Dave Tuley (4-3, +1.40) both of whom have selected the Cubs to win the series, albeit at much different prices. Peta holds a -210 ticket while Tuley bargain shopped after Game 1 and picked up the Cubs at -115.
Westgate line: Chicago Cubs (Arrieta)-140 at Cleveland Indians (Tomlin) +130
Over/under: 7 (-120 over)
Game 6 PickCenter: 55 percent picking Cleveland
Joe Peta: One of the fun things about writing daily for a series that goes six of seven games is the ability to conduct a comparative pricing analysis. When Josh Tomlin started Game 3 versus Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs were listed as -220/+200 favorites at first pitch. That game, of course, was at Wrigley Field, and applying the standard 8 percent adjustment for home field versus a neutral location (applied twice as we're switching to Cleveland) yields an equivalent line of -155/+145 for tonight's game.
However, Jake Arrieta, not Hendricks is on the mound tonight for the Cubs, and the line is actually -140/+130 so we can conclude that, with all else held equal, oddsmakers are assigning a roughly 2.5 percent drop in the Cubs' win probability due to Arrieta replacing Hendricks. Assuming six innings of work from a starter, at most, and looking at skill-based comparison of both hurlers, I think the drop is a bit much. Your mileage may vary, but it's helpful to at least attempt to figure out if there is any momentum, or extra home-field premium being applied to tonight's odds.
As you know if you've been reading these game-by-game previews, the way the Cubs lost Game 3 flummoxed me. While their starter was twirling a shutout, they struck out just one time in 17 plate appearances versus a flyball pitcher, with the wind blowing out at Wrigley, and an ex-catcher playing left field and ... if Cleveland pops champagne tonight or tomorrow, that is going to loom as the game that got away from the Cubs.
I liked them on Friday against Tomlin and I like them again tonight but, admittedly, thanks to the conditions and environment on Friday, it's not with the same conviction as in Game 3.
I'm still clinging to this fact that I mentioned before Game 5: Theo Epstein served as the architect of one curse-breaking franchise and, even when they were in a 3-2 hole in 2004, it was deeper than this. The Red Sox were +130 underdogs in their Game 6 ALCS matchup with the Yankees. Cubs fans may not think so, but it still looks easier for them to break their curse than it did for the Red Sox back in 2004.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -140
Dave Tuley: The unders improved to 4-1 as the series continues to proceed as I projected with pitchers' duels, though I got a little too cute with betting the Cubs -1.5 on the run line. But that's OK as I didn't have a full unit on that and we got the series heading back to Cleveland. I'll continue to sit on my Cubs -115 series wager but while I rarely lay more than -120, the Cubs priced at -140 with Arrieta against Tomlin looks fair. Arrieta shut down the Indians in Game 2 at Cleveland and I expect him to do the same here. I'm tempted to lay the 1.5 runs again, but the +120 price isn't too appealing, plus Tomlin kept the Cubs from hitting the ball out of Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out, so we might not get the blowout needed. (Plus, I don't expect Tomlin to go too deep into the game as Terry Francona will probably rely on his stellar bullpen again).
For those reasons, I'll fire again with the under in Game 6. It's set at 7 with -120 on the over, so we get even money on the under. Joe West is behind the plate, which isn't really a big plus or minus for our purposes. The under was a modest 17-15 in games with him behind the plate this year, though he was 43-22-3 (66.2 percent) with the over in 2014-15 but much closer to 50/50 since 2005 at 205-189-21 (52 percent) with the over. Again, as I've written before, the umps have been a secondary consideration with these unders as the handicapping has said we would get low-scoring games, and that's what has happened so far (and hopefully continues).
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -140, Under (EVEN)
