[h=1]How to bet World Series Game 7[/h]MLB Vegas Experts
ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
Major League Baseball went eight seasons (2003 to 2010) without a Game 7 in its showcase event, but tonight, for the third time in five years, baseball, nay sportsfans are treated to the ultimate winner-take-all contest.
By virtue of the rotation Terry Francona set at the beginning of the World Series, Cleveland's plan to capture the Fall Classic involved winning the three starts made by Corey Kluber while stealing a fourth game somewhere else along the way. As evidenced by the shellacking Josh Tomlin took Tuesday night, the Indians' win in his Game 3 start at Wrigley Field versus Kyle Hendricks, the majors' ERA champ, firmly meets the standards of a stolen win. The Indians are exactly where they planned to be before a pitch was thrown in the Series.
The Cubs, on the other hand, entered Sunday with a one-pitch-at-a-time, one-bat-at-a-time mentality -- for better or worse, Joe Maddon rigidly adhered to that outlook Tuesday even with a five- and then seven-run lead. Not only have they gotten to Game 7, but for the first time since before Game 3, they're actually favorites, albeit mild ones, to win the 2016 World Championship.
It's up to our baseball handicappers at Chalk to reveal if they see it that way as well. Joe Peta's bid for postseason series perfection is still alive and on an individual game basis this series, he moved to 3-2 (-0.3 units) last night while Dave Tuley (5-4, +1.40) came out unscathed after a win on the favorite Cubs and a no-juice loss on the under. Here are our best bets for Game 7 of the World Series:
Westgate line: Chicago Cubs (Hendricks) -115 at Cleveland Indians (Kluber) +105
Over/under: 6.5 (-120 over)
Game 7 PickCenter: 55 percent picking Chicago
Joe Peta: Before Tuesday's game, the separately listed odds on both Game 6 and the Cubs winning the World Series implied the Indians would be small favorites in Game 7. Sure enough, when the initial lines were posted in Las Vegas last night, the Indians were -110 favorites. Quickly the odds changed to what you see now, as Cubs money poured in. By virtue of the dime-line math, all 10-cent, or in this case 15-cent, moves are not created equal -- not even close -- and in fact, a move from -110 to +105 is nearly the biggest change in implied win expectancy possible. All of which is to say, with the better and more rested bullpen, you can definitely make the case that tonight's value lies with Cleveland.
I won't be making that case, though, and if I'm wrong about this game and ultimately this series, it's because my model overrated the Cubs offense. My eyes can see (just like yours) that the Cubs' supposed top-to-bottom lineup strength appears to have vanished due to the struggles of Jason Heyward, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. But our eyes often lie, and in my quest to complete the perfect postseason bracket, I'm sticking with the edge my numbers see for the Cubs.
Honestly, though, Wednesday night isn't about a perfect bracket, or "capping" that final game correctly. It's about enjoying one of the most anticipated World Series games in at least 15 and possibly 30 years. One thing I've noticed since I entered this subculture five years ago is that serious baseball bettors tend to be huge baseball fans. Perhaps it's a prerequisite for slogging through a 2,430-game season, but spend time with them and for all the talk about wOBAs, SIERAs and mispriced lines, you'll find a love of baseball driving their endeavors.
So tonight, whether you're holding a Cubs or an Indians ticket, cashing that ticket isn't the main focus. We get to watch two franchises starved for a world championship banner in their ballpark battle to create a generation's worth of memories for their rabid fan bases, and if we're all lucky someone's name is going to take its place next to Madison Bumgarner, Luis Gonzalez, Jack Morris, Bob Gibson and Bill Mazeroski in the annals of Game 7 heroes.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -115
Dave Tuley: Playing each game's under dropped me to 4-2 on totals in this series with Chicago's 9-3 victory Tuesday night, but it was offset by a relatively easy one-unit win on the Cubs to set up Game 7.
As written after Game 1, I picked up a series price of -115 on the Cubs, and with Game 7's odds nearly identical, I could let that ride or basically double down on tonight's game. I'm tempted to do the latter.
Let's go back to something I wrote after Game 1: "The Cubs expected to see ALCS MVP Andrew Miller several times in this series, and it was obvious to me that they were ready for him last night. They didn't score on him, but they threatened to in both the seventh and eighth innings and will benefit the more they see him ... They didn't fare as well against Kluber, though I expect them to watch the tape and be ready next time for his backdoor two-seamer, which was deceptive Tuesday night but is relatively flat."
Now, the Cubs faced the Kluber-Miller combo again in Game 4 and lost 7-2; however, they did get five hits off Kluber in six innings and scored on both pitchers, including a Dexter Fowler home run off of Miller. I expect the Cubs to continue to improve against each (with Kluber again pitching on short rest) and this time they have Kyle Hendricks on the mound instead of John Lackey. Hendricks started the Cubs' 1-0 loss in Game 3 but didn't allow a run in 4⅓ innings.
So, I'm firing on the under one last time as well. While I believe the Cubs will have more success against Kluber and Miller (who is almost certain to be called upon in middle relief by Francona), I don't expect them to light up the scoreboard; something along the lines of the Cubs' 5-1 win in Game 2 or 3-2 win in Game 5 will suffice. I wouldn't blame anyone following my under plays to be content with the 4-2 record and pass on Game 7, especially with former "over" umpire Sam Holbrook behind the plate. He was 131-93-16 (58.5 percent) with the over from 2007-2012, however, he's been more of an under umpire at 28-24-4 (53.8 percent) the past two years since returning from bereavement leave 2014 after the death of his wife, Susie.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago (-115) and the under (EVEN)
ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
Major League Baseball went eight seasons (2003 to 2010) without a Game 7 in its showcase event, but tonight, for the third time in five years, baseball, nay sportsfans are treated to the ultimate winner-take-all contest.
By virtue of the rotation Terry Francona set at the beginning of the World Series, Cleveland's plan to capture the Fall Classic involved winning the three starts made by Corey Kluber while stealing a fourth game somewhere else along the way. As evidenced by the shellacking Josh Tomlin took Tuesday night, the Indians' win in his Game 3 start at Wrigley Field versus Kyle Hendricks, the majors' ERA champ, firmly meets the standards of a stolen win. The Indians are exactly where they planned to be before a pitch was thrown in the Series.
The Cubs, on the other hand, entered Sunday with a one-pitch-at-a-time, one-bat-at-a-time mentality -- for better or worse, Joe Maddon rigidly adhered to that outlook Tuesday even with a five- and then seven-run lead. Not only have they gotten to Game 7, but for the first time since before Game 3, they're actually favorites, albeit mild ones, to win the 2016 World Championship.
It's up to our baseball handicappers at Chalk to reveal if they see it that way as well. Joe Peta's bid for postseason series perfection is still alive and on an individual game basis this series, he moved to 3-2 (-0.3 units) last night while Dave Tuley (5-4, +1.40) came out unscathed after a win on the favorite Cubs and a no-juice loss on the under. Here are our best bets for Game 7 of the World Series:
Over/under: 6.5 (-120 over)
Game 7 PickCenter: 55 percent picking Chicago
Joe Peta: Before Tuesday's game, the separately listed odds on both Game 6 and the Cubs winning the World Series implied the Indians would be small favorites in Game 7. Sure enough, when the initial lines were posted in Las Vegas last night, the Indians were -110 favorites. Quickly the odds changed to what you see now, as Cubs money poured in. By virtue of the dime-line math, all 10-cent, or in this case 15-cent, moves are not created equal -- not even close -- and in fact, a move from -110 to +105 is nearly the biggest change in implied win expectancy possible. All of which is to say, with the better and more rested bullpen, you can definitely make the case that tonight's value lies with Cleveland.
I won't be making that case, though, and if I'm wrong about this game and ultimately this series, it's because my model overrated the Cubs offense. My eyes can see (just like yours) that the Cubs' supposed top-to-bottom lineup strength appears to have vanished due to the struggles of Jason Heyward, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. But our eyes often lie, and in my quest to complete the perfect postseason bracket, I'm sticking with the edge my numbers see for the Cubs.
Honestly, though, Wednesday night isn't about a perfect bracket, or "capping" that final game correctly. It's about enjoying one of the most anticipated World Series games in at least 15 and possibly 30 years. One thing I've noticed since I entered this subculture five years ago is that serious baseball bettors tend to be huge baseball fans. Perhaps it's a prerequisite for slogging through a 2,430-game season, but spend time with them and for all the talk about wOBAs, SIERAs and mispriced lines, you'll find a love of baseball driving their endeavors.
So tonight, whether you're holding a Cubs or an Indians ticket, cashing that ticket isn't the main focus. We get to watch two franchises starved for a world championship banner in their ballpark battle to create a generation's worth of memories for their rabid fan bases, and if we're all lucky someone's name is going to take its place next to Madison Bumgarner, Luis Gonzalez, Jack Morris, Bob Gibson and Bill Mazeroski in the annals of Game 7 heroes.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago, -115
Dave Tuley: Playing each game's under dropped me to 4-2 on totals in this series with Chicago's 9-3 victory Tuesday night, but it was offset by a relatively easy one-unit win on the Cubs to set up Game 7.
As written after Game 1, I picked up a series price of -115 on the Cubs, and with Game 7's odds nearly identical, I could let that ride or basically double down on tonight's game. I'm tempted to do the latter.
Let's go back to something I wrote after Game 1: "The Cubs expected to see ALCS MVP Andrew Miller several times in this series, and it was obvious to me that they were ready for him last night. They didn't score on him, but they threatened to in both the seventh and eighth innings and will benefit the more they see him ... They didn't fare as well against Kluber, though I expect them to watch the tape and be ready next time for his backdoor two-seamer, which was deceptive Tuesday night but is relatively flat."
Now, the Cubs faced the Kluber-Miller combo again in Game 4 and lost 7-2; however, they did get five hits off Kluber in six innings and scored on both pitchers, including a Dexter Fowler home run off of Miller. I expect the Cubs to continue to improve against each (with Kluber again pitching on short rest) and this time they have Kyle Hendricks on the mound instead of John Lackey. Hendricks started the Cubs' 1-0 loss in Game 3 but didn't allow a run in 4⅓ innings.
So, I'm firing on the under one last time as well. While I believe the Cubs will have more success against Kluber and Miller (who is almost certain to be called upon in middle relief by Francona), I don't expect them to light up the scoreboard; something along the lines of the Cubs' 5-1 win in Game 2 or 3-2 win in Game 5 will suffice. I wouldn't blame anyone following my under plays to be content with the 4-2 record and pass on Game 7, especially with former "over" umpire Sam Holbrook behind the plate. He was 131-93-16 (58.5 percent) with the over from 2007-2012, however, he's been more of an under umpire at 28-24-4 (53.8 percent) the past two years since returning from bereavement leave 2014 after the death of his wife, Susie.
ESPN Chalk pick: Chicago (-115) and the under (EVEN)
