Phil Steele's best Week 10 college football bets
Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, I got back on track with a solid 6-1 record, both straight-up and against the spread, which brings the straight-up record to 50-27 (65 percent) but the against-the-spread record to just 32-42-2 (43 percent). On the Chalk podcast on Fridays, the record was 2-2 this past week and now stands at 16-15-1.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 SU (76 percent) during the regular season and 74-61-2 ATS (55 percent).
Here are my seven best bets from the Week 10 college football slate of games:
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=3]No. 19 Florida State Seminoles (-5.5) at NC State Wolfpack[/h]Saturday, 7 PM ET, ESPNU
The Seminoles gave a great effort last week, but they allowed a late touchdown and lost at home to Clemson for their third loss of the season. They had upset losses at this site in both 2010 and 2012, and now take on a team that upset Notre Dame at home and almost beat that same Clemson team on the road. If Florida State was off an upset win, they would be in a play-against spot, but off a loss they'll be focused and the spread is under a touchdown.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Since that 2012 upset, Florida State has rolled to wins of 32, 15 and 17 points against NC State. The Wolfpack have lost their last two and are minus-69 yards per game in ACC play. NC State has won 11 games the past two years, but only one of those has come versus a team that made a bowl game (Notre Dame, which is currently 3-5 this season). Florida State has taken on my second-toughest schedule this year and will get this must-win on the road.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 31, NC State 20
[h=3]Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 11 Auburn Tigers(-26)[/h]Saturday, Noon, ESPN
A few weeks back on my weekly radio show in Alabama they asked me about Auburn and I said, "The buy sign is on and I'll ride them until they lose a game ATS." The past four weeks, they've delivered big-time, leading Mississippi State 35-0 at the half on the road. They whipped Arkansas, 56-3, finishing with a 543-25 rushing-yard edge. And last week they delivered an 11-point road win in Oxford.
They're holding opponents to 85 yards per game below their season average and have one of the best defensive lines in the country, while their offense is averaging 577 yards per game in that span. Vanderbilt faced Tennessee State last week and catches Auburn off those three big games, with Georgia on deck. Auburn has taken on the tougher schedule (my No. 15-ranked vs. 55) and has outgained teams by 149 yards per game, while Vanderbilt has been outgained by 89 yards per game. Auburn has a top-10 offense and defense, and will keep rolling.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 38, Vanderbilt 6
[h=3]No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 15 LSU Tigers(+7.5)[/h]Saturday, 8 PM ET, CBS
If you talk to NFL scouts, the three most talented teams in the country are Alabama, Ohio State and LSU. The Tigers weren't playing up to their talent level under Les Miles recently, but is under interim head coach Ed Orgeron.
Last year, I had Alabama in this column and they rolled to a 30-16 win at home, holding Leonard Fournette to just 31 yards on 19 carries. There's a lot of talk of how Alabama has won four in a row in the series and how they own LSU. I'll point out that in their past six trips to Death Valley, they're 3-3, with their wins by six, four and seven in overtime.
Alabama is No. 1 in the country, holding foes to 177 yards below their season average, but LSU is not too far behind, holding their opponents to 174 below. Against their lone mutual opponent (Ole Miss), Alabama won by just five, getting outgained by 35 yards, while LSU won by 17 with a 190-yard edge. Alabama has a slight edge on offense, special teams and schedule strength. LSU, however, averaged 340 yards per game on offense under Miles and 536 under Orgeron. I'll call for this one to be decided by a field goal.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: Alabama 23, LSU 20
[h=3]Arizona Wildcats at No. 25 Washington State Cougars (-17)[/h]Saturday, 4 PM ET, Pac 12 Network
Washington State has won six in a row, vaulting into the top 25, but has been far from impressive its last three. The Cougars have won by just six, five and four, outgaining their opponents by only 58 yards per game. While they beat UCLA (without quarterback Rosen) by only six in their last home game, the Wildcats lost to the Bruins by 21 on the road. Arizona is 0-5 in the Pac 12, losing its games by an average of 20 points per game. The Cougars defense is holding teams to 64 yards below their season average, and Arizona is allowing its opponents 51 yards above their season average. Washington State also has the edge on offense, and Luke Falk is getting noticed by NFL scouts as a potential draft pick, hitting 73 percent of his passes with a 24-5 TD:INT ratio. These teams are headed in different directions. Washington State has won eight games at home the last three years, and six of those have been by 17 or more.
ATS pick: Washington State
Score: Washington State 45, Arizona 21
[h=3]Maryland Terrapins (+31) at No. 2 Michigan Wolverines[/h]Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Michigan blew out Rutgers 78-0 on the road, and the nation noticed. Since then, Michigan has been paying a higher price in Vegas and gone 0-2 ATS. They're now No. 2 in the country, which also makes them overpriced. Last November, teams in the top five of the College Football Playoff rankings were just 5-14 ATS. While those two factors point out some value against Michigan, I have a factor giving Maryland some value as well: The Terrapins are 5-1 when quarterback Perry Hills starts and finishes a game, and average 472 yards of offense. He was injured early against Penn State and missed the Minnesota game, and their offense averaged just 281 yards. Maryland lost those games by 24 and 21 points, and most fans look at those results and think Michigan is way better than Penn State and Minnesota, so this will be a blowout. Hills, however, is now healthy.
Maryland head coach DJ Durkin knows the Michigan personnel extremely well after being the defensive coordinator there last year. Remember, Michigan doesn't need style points, just victories to make the playoff.
ATS pick: Maryland
Score: Michigan 44, Maryland 20
[h=3]Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San Diego State Aztecs (-21.5)[/h]Saturday, 7 PM ET, CBS Sports
I pointed out in my magazine that Hawai'i averaged 35.6 points per game while Nick Rolovich was the offensive coordinator in 2010 and 2011; in the other six years after June Jones left, they averaged just 22.4 points per game. Hawai'i averaged just 17.4 points per game last year, but 29.7 this year, and has been effective since Dru Brown took over at quarterback. Ikaika Woolsey completed just 49 percent of his passes with a 5-6 TD:INT ratio, but Brown has completed 61 percent, with a 9-4 ratio the last six games.
Upon closer inspection, however, those six defenses rank No. 93, 114, 110, 112, 66 and 85 in my computer's defensive rankings. This week, they take on my No. 14-rated defense.
San Diego State's play is much different against conference opponents the last two years. Last year they allowed 373 yards per game in nonconference play, but just 240 yards per game in Mountain West action; this year, they've allowed 363 yards per game in nonconference play, and just 200 in Mountain West action. They've allowed a total of two offensive touchdowns in their four conference games, with one of those a garbage-time touchdown late by Utah State. While the Aztecs offense is not explosive, they do have the nation's leading rusher in Donnel Pumphrey who's going up against a rush defense that's allowing 255 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. San Diego State rolls here.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 41, Hawaii 13
[h=3]TCU Horned Frogs (+7.5) at No. 13 Baylor Bears[/h]Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, Fox
Last week my computer numbers had Baylor big, but I still called for the Texas outright upset in this column and the Longhorns delivered. Baylor has been a much better team at home than on the road, but I'm going against them again. Jim Grobe is a solid head coach, but is just guiding Baylor through a season of turmoil. The Bears have padded their numbers with a soft nonconference schedule. Their defense is No. 26 in the country, but it's yielding 431 yards per game in Big 12 play and allowing foes 11 yards above their season average, despite facing Iowa State and Kansas among their four Big 12 opponents.
They just had their playoff bubble burst in the loss, and many times teams have a letdown after their first loss this late in the year. TCU is desperate, Gary Patterson is one of the stronger head coaches, and his team will play like its backs are against the wall. While TCU has four losses, they outplayed Arkansas, blowing a lead and losing in double overtime, only lost to Oklahoma by six, fumbled the opening kickoff against West Virginia on the road and were minus in turnovers and blew the game against Texas Tech. TCU's defense may be allowing 410 yards per game (No. 67 in the nation), but is holding foes to 69 yards per game below their season average, which is 21st.
This game means more to TCU, and last time here they got robbed, blowing a 21-point fourth quarter lead thanks in part to a pair of questionable late pass interference calls that cost them a berth in the first ever playoff. While Kenny Hill got benched at quarterback last week, he's still available and could play if he doesn't start. TCU will take this to the wire in a possible upset.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Baylor 35, TCU 34
Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, I got back on track with a solid 6-1 record, both straight-up and against the spread, which brings the straight-up record to 50-27 (65 percent) but the against-the-spread record to just 32-42-2 (43 percent). On the Chalk podcast on Fridays, the record was 2-2 this past week and now stands at 16-15-1.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 SU (76 percent) during the regular season and 74-61-2 ATS (55 percent).
Here are my seven best bets from the Week 10 college football slate of games:
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=3]No. 19 Florida State Seminoles (-5.5) at NC State Wolfpack[/h]Saturday, 7 PM ET, ESPNU
The Seminoles gave a great effort last week, but they allowed a late touchdown and lost at home to Clemson for their third loss of the season. They had upset losses at this site in both 2010 and 2012, and now take on a team that upset Notre Dame at home and almost beat that same Clemson team on the road. If Florida State was off an upset win, they would be in a play-against spot, but off a loss they'll be focused and the spread is under a touchdown.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Since that 2012 upset, Florida State has rolled to wins of 32, 15 and 17 points against NC State. The Wolfpack have lost their last two and are minus-69 yards per game in ACC play. NC State has won 11 games the past two years, but only one of those has come versus a team that made a bowl game (Notre Dame, which is currently 3-5 this season). Florida State has taken on my second-toughest schedule this year and will get this must-win on the road.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 31, NC State 20
[h=3]Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 11 Auburn Tigers(-26)[/h]Saturday, Noon, ESPN
A few weeks back on my weekly radio show in Alabama they asked me about Auburn and I said, "The buy sign is on and I'll ride them until they lose a game ATS." The past four weeks, they've delivered big-time, leading Mississippi State 35-0 at the half on the road. They whipped Arkansas, 56-3, finishing with a 543-25 rushing-yard edge. And last week they delivered an 11-point road win in Oxford.
They're holding opponents to 85 yards per game below their season average and have one of the best defensive lines in the country, while their offense is averaging 577 yards per game in that span. Vanderbilt faced Tennessee State last week and catches Auburn off those three big games, with Georgia on deck. Auburn has taken on the tougher schedule (my No. 15-ranked vs. 55) and has outgained teams by 149 yards per game, while Vanderbilt has been outgained by 89 yards per game. Auburn has a top-10 offense and defense, and will keep rolling.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 38, Vanderbilt 6
[h=3]No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 15 LSU Tigers(+7.5)[/h]Saturday, 8 PM ET, CBS
If you talk to NFL scouts, the three most talented teams in the country are Alabama, Ohio State and LSU. The Tigers weren't playing up to their talent level under Les Miles recently, but is under interim head coach Ed Orgeron.
Last year, I had Alabama in this column and they rolled to a 30-16 win at home, holding Leonard Fournette to just 31 yards on 19 carries. There's a lot of talk of how Alabama has won four in a row in the series and how they own LSU. I'll point out that in their past six trips to Death Valley, they're 3-3, with their wins by six, four and seven in overtime.
Alabama is No. 1 in the country, holding foes to 177 yards below their season average, but LSU is not too far behind, holding their opponents to 174 below. Against their lone mutual opponent (Ole Miss), Alabama won by just five, getting outgained by 35 yards, while LSU won by 17 with a 190-yard edge. Alabama has a slight edge on offense, special teams and schedule strength. LSU, however, averaged 340 yards per game on offense under Miles and 536 under Orgeron. I'll call for this one to be decided by a field goal.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: Alabama 23, LSU 20
[h=3]Arizona Wildcats at No. 25 Washington State Cougars (-17)[/h]Saturday, 4 PM ET, Pac 12 Network
Washington State has won six in a row, vaulting into the top 25, but has been far from impressive its last three. The Cougars have won by just six, five and four, outgaining their opponents by only 58 yards per game. While they beat UCLA (without quarterback Rosen) by only six in their last home game, the Wildcats lost to the Bruins by 21 on the road. Arizona is 0-5 in the Pac 12, losing its games by an average of 20 points per game. The Cougars defense is holding teams to 64 yards below their season average, and Arizona is allowing its opponents 51 yards above their season average. Washington State also has the edge on offense, and Luke Falk is getting noticed by NFL scouts as a potential draft pick, hitting 73 percent of his passes with a 24-5 TD:INT ratio. These teams are headed in different directions. Washington State has won eight games at home the last three years, and six of those have been by 17 or more.
ATS pick: Washington State
Score: Washington State 45, Arizona 21
[h=3]Maryland Terrapins (+31) at No. 2 Michigan Wolverines[/h]Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Michigan blew out Rutgers 78-0 on the road, and the nation noticed. Since then, Michigan has been paying a higher price in Vegas and gone 0-2 ATS. They're now No. 2 in the country, which also makes them overpriced. Last November, teams in the top five of the College Football Playoff rankings were just 5-14 ATS. While those two factors point out some value against Michigan, I have a factor giving Maryland some value as well: The Terrapins are 5-1 when quarterback Perry Hills starts and finishes a game, and average 472 yards of offense. He was injured early against Penn State and missed the Minnesota game, and their offense averaged just 281 yards. Maryland lost those games by 24 and 21 points, and most fans look at those results and think Michigan is way better than Penn State and Minnesota, so this will be a blowout. Hills, however, is now healthy.
Maryland head coach DJ Durkin knows the Michigan personnel extremely well after being the defensive coordinator there last year. Remember, Michigan doesn't need style points, just victories to make the playoff.
ATS pick: Maryland
Score: Michigan 44, Maryland 20
[h=3]Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San Diego State Aztecs (-21.5)[/h]Saturday, 7 PM ET, CBS Sports
I pointed out in my magazine that Hawai'i averaged 35.6 points per game while Nick Rolovich was the offensive coordinator in 2010 and 2011; in the other six years after June Jones left, they averaged just 22.4 points per game. Hawai'i averaged just 17.4 points per game last year, but 29.7 this year, and has been effective since Dru Brown took over at quarterback. Ikaika Woolsey completed just 49 percent of his passes with a 5-6 TD:INT ratio, but Brown has completed 61 percent, with a 9-4 ratio the last six games.
Upon closer inspection, however, those six defenses rank No. 93, 114, 110, 112, 66 and 85 in my computer's defensive rankings. This week, they take on my No. 14-rated defense.
San Diego State's play is much different against conference opponents the last two years. Last year they allowed 373 yards per game in nonconference play, but just 240 yards per game in Mountain West action; this year, they've allowed 363 yards per game in nonconference play, and just 200 in Mountain West action. They've allowed a total of two offensive touchdowns in their four conference games, with one of those a garbage-time touchdown late by Utah State. While the Aztecs offense is not explosive, they do have the nation's leading rusher in Donnel Pumphrey who's going up against a rush defense that's allowing 255 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. San Diego State rolls here.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 41, Hawaii 13
[h=3]TCU Horned Frogs (+7.5) at No. 13 Baylor Bears[/h]Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, Fox
Last week my computer numbers had Baylor big, but I still called for the Texas outright upset in this column and the Longhorns delivered. Baylor has been a much better team at home than on the road, but I'm going against them again. Jim Grobe is a solid head coach, but is just guiding Baylor through a season of turmoil. The Bears have padded their numbers with a soft nonconference schedule. Their defense is No. 26 in the country, but it's yielding 431 yards per game in Big 12 play and allowing foes 11 yards above their season average, despite facing Iowa State and Kansas among their four Big 12 opponents.
They just had their playoff bubble burst in the loss, and many times teams have a letdown after their first loss this late in the year. TCU is desperate, Gary Patterson is one of the stronger head coaches, and his team will play like its backs are against the wall. While TCU has four losses, they outplayed Arkansas, blowing a lead and losing in double overtime, only lost to Oklahoma by six, fumbled the opening kickoff against West Virginia on the road and were minus in turnovers and blew the game against Texas Tech. TCU's defense may be allowing 410 yards per game (No. 67 in the nation), but is holding foes to 69 yards per game below their season average, which is 21st.
This game means more to TCU, and last time here they got robbed, blowing a 21-point fourth quarter lead thanks in part to a pair of questionable late pass interference calls that cost them a berth in the first ever playoff. While Kenny Hill got benched at quarterback last week, he's still available and could play if he doesn't start. TCU will take this to the wire in a possible upset.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Baylor 35, TCU 34
