UFC 205: McGregor vs Alvarez (11/12/2016) live discussion thread

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Gonna be huge night in NYC. Will be posting throughout event. Post anything UFC 205 related and feel free to chime in during event.
 

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I got Thompson at -175 like a month ago. Only bet I have on the card so far.

Why you like Woodley? Think he just caught Lawler with a shot after Lawler had been through tons of wars. He had something like that coming.

Just think Thompson outclasses him standing up similar to how he did Rory. He stayed on his feet vs Hendricks so not sure why Woodley would take him down. I feel like if Woodley didn't have the title this line would be like -250 (still 5 rds obviously)

I'm not sure what to make of CM and Eddie. Love CM but I don't know if he can stay on his feet with a big grinding wrestler like Eddie.
 

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I just think Woodley is outclassed. Wonderboy is going to have a huge height/reach advantage. As well as an advantage at striking.

Think he picks him apart.
 

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I just think if the line keeps moving and you get 2 to 1 for Woodley to win, its great value
 

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Been studying this card heavy. Hopefully i can beat my bookie on these picks.

Woodley +170, getting a champion fighter with underdog profit. While Wonderboy does have alot of movement/allusiveness, Woodley is the best at closing distance quick. And Woodley has option B, His wrestling.

Rafael Natal -150. Natal is a grinder. I can see Natal GnP'ing Tim Boetsch and smothering him in clinch.

Michael Johnson +245 while Johnson is vastly outclassed on ground/clinch against Khabib. He has standup and movement advantage. Khabib is a great fighter but he is injury prone. Khabib last opponent was a nobody. Michael Johnson has been steadily fighting top 20 guys. I think Johnson will catch Khabib with a KO punch.

All 3 plays are 1-unit. My unit size is $100 per unit

Risking $350 to win $515. Good luck this event fellas. I already got the beers ready for this event.
 

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Kelvin gastelum misses weight. Cerrone vs gastelum has been scrapped from UFC 205
 

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Another situation unfolded Friday morning when Thiago Alves stepped on the scale at 162.6 pounds for his lightweight debut.

Because Alves weighed in first, his opponent Jim Miller was allowed to rehydrate before coming in at 157.6, which was within the five pound allowance. Alves was fined 20% of his purse for missing weight.


Alves will not be allowed to weigh more than 173 pounds when he checks in for his fight on Saturday per an agreement made between the UFC and Miller's team.
 

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Something to note ...



First 15 UFC events of 2016 ... One fighter missed weight.

Past 18 UFC events of 2016 (since new weigh-in policy): 13 fighters missed weight.
 

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Joe Rogan talks about the issue of weight cutting on his podcast all the time. He wants much striker rules in place to basically not allow fighters to much cut weight. Instead force them to fight near their natural weight, not sure how you make that happen...
 

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Romero weighed in at 185.6lbs .. McGregor 154.4lbs



CxAk328WgAErCF0.jpg
 

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from Matthew Holt ... COO at CG Analytics / Vice President of Business Development for CG Technology ...


"Huge amounts of wagers coming in today on Eddie Alvarez causing massive line move and this one may end up close to pickem by fight time"


"Also seeing lots of support at betting windows for Jeremy Stephens vs Frankie Edgar and Tyron Woodley"
 

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from Matthew Holt ... COO at CG Analytics / Vice President of Business Development for CG Technology ...


"Huge amounts of wagers coming in today on Eddie Alvarez causing massive line move and this one may end up close to pickem by fight time"


"Also seeing lots of support at betting windows for Jeremy Stephens vs Frankie Edgar and Tyron Woodley"

Knight how many bets you got for this card? I only got 3 bets for UFC 205
 

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"The Notorious" Conor McGregor -140 .......... Big

Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson -160

Yoel 'Soldier of God' Romero +145

McGregor Wins Inside the Distance +120

McGregor Wins by TKO/KO +129


Had Cerrone



Chalk Parlay ...


Joanna Violence -410 / Conor McGregor -165
 

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"The Notorious" Conor McGregor -140 .......... Big

Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson -160

Yoel 'Soldier of God' Romero +145

McGregor Wins Inside the Distance +120

McGregor Wins by TKO/KO +129


Had Cerrone



Chalk Parlay ...


Joanna Violence -410 / Conor McGregor -165

Cool thanks for posting your picks. Good luck on your bets this weekend. What offshore book you use for those UFC parlays/props? My book only allows the basic pickem bet or O/U bets
 

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