[h=1]How to bet Denver-Oakland[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 9 games, including the Denver-Oakland Sunday night matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders[/h]Spread: Opened Denver -1; now Oakland -1
Total: Opened 44; now 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Denver
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Public perception: The Raiders have become a very public team this year (and not just in their potential future home of Las Vegas) with their No. 5-ranked offense and averaging 26.9 points per game, but the public still sides with the Broncos here.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps can be found on both sides of this game, though we should note that it opened with several oddsmakers/bookmakers making Denver the favorite (though that was also split with many books opting for Oakland and several others at pick 'em).
Dave Tuley's take: I like the Raiders too, but this is obviously a crucial game for them with first place in the AFC West on the line (or at least giving the winner the edge down the stretch). They've passed most of their tests, but it's important to note that they've lost to the two best teams they've faced so far -- the Atlanta Falcons and Kansas City Chiefs. Both losses were at home, so they're only 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS protecting their own turf. The Broncos obviously have a lot more experience in close games and the Raiders' No. 31 defense (though improving) also tips the scales in favor of Denver.
The pick: Broncos +1*
Rufus Peabody:
I still don't buy the Oakland hype, despite the team's 6-2 record. The Raiders have been aided by a plus-7 turnover margin and a lot of really close wins. Three of their wins have come by a field goal or less, and that doesn't even include last week's overtime win against Tampa Bay. Oakland's defense ranks dead last in the NFL -- worse than Cleveland -- allowing 6.5 yards per play.
Denver's defense, on the other hand, has been the best in the NFL, giving up only 4.6 yards per play. But Denver is a team I also consider overrated. They have been lucky turnover-wise (plus-5), and have an offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL, with 5.3 yards per play.
Massey-Peabody Line: Denver -0.3, Total 43.4
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning:
The Broncos continue to play tremendous football on the defensive side of the ball. Importantly for this matchup, they rank first against the pass, allowing just 5.2 yards per attempt. Of course, the Raiders are led by QB Derek Carr with a shiny 17-3 TD-INT ratio, however this will be easily the stiffest test the Raiders' offense has faced this season.
Yes, the Broncos will be without key defensive cog Aqib Talib, but they did regain the services of DeMarcus Ware last week. Meanwhile, the Broncos' offense continues to play a conservative brand of football with Trevor Siemian under center. No question, the Raiders' defensive numbers are dismal but it's a young unit that will show growth as the season moves forward.
Play: Under 44 or more
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Oakland 23, Denver 22
The pick: Over 43.5
John Parolin's prop bet pick:
258.5 passing yards by Derek Carr (O/U -110)
There has been plenty of press surrounding Derek Carr's start to the season, and he has deserved it. Throwing for 500-plus yards in a game will do that, and Carr has shown plenty of improvement in his third year as the Raiders' starter. For example, Carr's deep ball has been a major strength -- he has connected on 56 percent of his throws at least 20 yards downfield, with an off-target percentage of 22 percent. The improvement is there, but his opposition has been ripe for the picking. Consider Carr's opponents -- the Saints, Falcons, Titans, Ravens, Chargers, Chiefs, Jaguars and Buccaneers. He has been over 258 yards in only half of his games against those teams.
And now consider his opponent Sunday. Denver hasn't allowed more than 250 yards in a game since Week 15 of last year. The Broncos' cornerbacks are still an elite group, with a 27 percent completion percentage allowed on deep throws that ranks fourth in the league. With Siemian starting to struggle (56.6 completion percentage, 221 yards per game and 2 TDs total in the past three games), it's unlikely that Denver would take the kind of big lead that would require Carr to pass from behind.
The play: Under
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 9 games, including the Denver-Oakland Sunday night matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
Total: Opened 44; now 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Denver
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Public perception: The Raiders have become a very public team this year (and not just in their potential future home of Las Vegas) with their No. 5-ranked offense and averaging 26.9 points per game, but the public still sides with the Broncos here.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps can be found on both sides of this game, though we should note that it opened with several oddsmakers/bookmakers making Denver the favorite (though that was also split with many books opting for Oakland and several others at pick 'em).
Dave Tuley's take: I like the Raiders too, but this is obviously a crucial game for them with first place in the AFC West on the line (or at least giving the winner the edge down the stretch). They've passed most of their tests, but it's important to note that they've lost to the two best teams they've faced so far -- the Atlanta Falcons and Kansas City Chiefs. Both losses were at home, so they're only 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS protecting their own turf. The Broncos obviously have a lot more experience in close games and the Raiders' No. 31 defense (though improving) also tips the scales in favor of Denver.
The pick: Broncos +1*
Rufus Peabody:
I still don't buy the Oakland hype, despite the team's 6-2 record. The Raiders have been aided by a plus-7 turnover margin and a lot of really close wins. Three of their wins have come by a field goal or less, and that doesn't even include last week's overtime win against Tampa Bay. Oakland's defense ranks dead last in the NFL -- worse than Cleveland -- allowing 6.5 yards per play.
Denver's defense, on the other hand, has been the best in the NFL, giving up only 4.6 yards per play. But Denver is a team I also consider overrated. They have been lucky turnover-wise (plus-5), and have an offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL, with 5.3 yards per play.
Massey-Peabody Line: Denver -0.3, Total 43.4
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning:
The Broncos continue to play tremendous football on the defensive side of the ball. Importantly for this matchup, they rank first against the pass, allowing just 5.2 yards per attempt. Of course, the Raiders are led by QB Derek Carr with a shiny 17-3 TD-INT ratio, however this will be easily the stiffest test the Raiders' offense has faced this season.
Yes, the Broncos will be without key defensive cog Aqib Talib, but they did regain the services of DeMarcus Ware last week. Meanwhile, the Broncos' offense continues to play a conservative brand of football with Trevor Siemian under center. No question, the Raiders' defensive numbers are dismal but it's a young unit that will show growth as the season moves forward.
Play: Under 44 or more
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Oakland 23, Denver 22
The pick: Over 43.5
John Parolin's prop bet pick:
258.5 passing yards by Derek Carr (O/U -110)
There has been plenty of press surrounding Derek Carr's start to the season, and he has deserved it. Throwing for 500-plus yards in a game will do that, and Carr has shown plenty of improvement in his third year as the Raiders' starter. For example, Carr's deep ball has been a major strength -- he has connected on 56 percent of his throws at least 20 yards downfield, with an off-target percentage of 22 percent. The improvement is there, but his opposition has been ripe for the picking. Consider Carr's opponents -- the Saints, Falcons, Titans, Ravens, Chargers, Chiefs, Jaguars and Buccaneers. He has been over 258 yards in only half of his games against those teams.
And now consider his opponent Sunday. Denver hasn't allowed more than 250 yards in a game since Week 15 of last year. The Broncos' cornerbacks are still an elite group, with a 27 percent completion percentage allowed on deep throws that ranks fourth in the league. With Siemian starting to struggle (56.6 completion percentage, 221 yards per game and 2 TDs total in the past three games), it's unlikely that Denver would take the kind of big lead that would require Carr to pass from behind.
The play: Under
