[h=1]Early betting look for Week 11: Buy Arkansas, sell Texas A&M[/h]Will HarrisSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Week 10 provided plenty of drama, as three of the top 13 teams lost, Colorado backers finally had to throw away a ticket, and Navy beat Notre Dame despite the Irish scoring on all but one possession. The oddsmakers had been telling us that Ohio State was the second-favorite to win the national title the whole time the Buckeyes were scuffling their way through October.
Now that Urban Meyer's team has turned in a dominating 62-3 beatdown against Nebraska, we'll check back in on how the suits in Vegas think the Bucks stack up with rival Michigan and No. 1 Alabama, plus the usual assortment of betting notes from around the sport.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Portfolio Checkup[/h][h=2]Buy[/h]
Arkansas Razorbacks
Regular readers know we're always inclined to buy this perpetually underrated outfit, but that's especially true in November. Bret Bielema went 49-41 against the number at Wisconsin and is 23-12 since his first year in Fayetteville. That record is built on closing strong, as the Razorbacks are 8-2 at the window the past two years once the calendar hits November.
This week might be a good time to hop on if you've not already been buying, as LSU hasn't beaten Arkansas by this margin since 2004, and the loser of the LSU-Bama clash has typically turned in some awful turns as chalk down the stretch. Also, the Razorbacks have held Leonard Fournette and the Tigers to just 95 combined rushing yards the past two years, and are coming off a dominating performance by the rush defense, holding Florida to just 12 yards.
[h=2]Sell[/h]
Texas A&M Aggies
Last week there was considerable hand-wringing and mockery over Texas A&M's inclusion in the top four of the first playoff standings, and we wondered if the hubbub would be a distraction or spur an excellent performance from the Aggies in Starkville. Now we know it turned out to be the former, but this time last week we were most interested in testing the hypothesis that the Aggies might play with a chip on their shoulder after being told they didn't belong, that they didn't deserve what the committee had given them. Channeling that outside noise into a lackluster performance rather than a something-to-prove attitude was a failure of this team's leadership, and it doesn't inspire confidence that this bunch can find its mojo again this season after experiencing the sweet taste of national relevance only to squander that status immediately.
[h=2]Games of Interest, Week 11[/h]
USC Trojans at Washington Huskies (-8)
Southern Cal has won five straight and looked good doing it, outgaining each of those five opponents by at least 150 yards and only getting challenged by Colorado. We've been advocating buying the Trojans, but this week it might be time to exercise some caution. Four of those five wins were at home, and Husky Stadium hasn't seen a visitor come within 24 points all year. More critically, ball security has been a major issue for Clay Helton's team. It's the only thing you can possibly blame for an otherwise dominating ATS loss versus Colorado, and it could get the Trojans in trouble against a ball-hawking Washington defense.
The Huskies lead the nation in turnover margin, with 22 takeaways and just seven giveaways. The Trojans, meanwhile, have fumbled more than all but six other teams, but have been fortunate to recover more than their share. A schedule filled with home games against teams that are not good at taking the ball away has kept freshman quarterback Sam Darnold's interception total down, but Husky Stadium is a difficult place for youth to perform its best right now, especially with opportunistic defensive backs like Budda Baker and Sidney Jones roaming the secondary. We've been backing the Trojans some this year, but we prefer them in the role of home favorites, and the alarming propensity for turnovers keeps us from trusting them against other good teams.
Colorado Buffaloes (-14) at Arizona Wildcats
The Buffs finally failed to cover last week, but 8-1 against the spread and in sole command of the Pac-12 South is still not a bad place to be. Arizona is 1-8 against the spread and has lost six straight by ever-increasing margins, the latest a 69-7 humiliation in Pullman. The Cats are young in many spots, have suffered a slew of injuries and are stuck in neutral with a scuffling offense that's cracked 31 points just once all year.
Still, this is a spot where we'll have the home dog or nothing. The Buffs are coming off an emotionally charged win over UCLA, and are staring at league contenders Washington State and Utah in the season's final two weeks. It will be hard for Colorado to watch film of Arizona's past two outings and feel that threatened, yet Rich Rodriguez' teams have averaged 44 points, 590 total yards and 355 rushing yards against Colorado the past four meetings, all Arizona wins.
The number has finally caught up with Ralphie, and we'll credit Richrod's team with enough pride to bounce back and make a better showing this week in front of the home crowd in what -- despite the Buffaloes' gaudy record -- has to feel to the Cats' players and coaches like their most winnable game in more than a month.
[h=2]Movers and Shakers[/h]Ohio State cures its offensive ills and demolishes Nebraska 62-3, yet its price to win the national title lengthens? That's the story, and it's probably not due to any major re-evaluation of the Buckeyes, whom the oddsmakers have appreciated all along, but rather Alabama passing one of its toughest remaining tests. The Tide are now even money to win it all, the first time this year that any team has gained that status. This week's moves also saw Washington pull ahead of Clemson in the pecking order for the first time all season.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody>
</aside>LSU, Nebraska and Texas A&M are off the radar after week 10 losses, so if you're looking for a dark horse beyond the above group that has comprised the top six for several weeks now, it will have to be Wisconsin at 20-1, Auburn at 30-1 or Oklahoma at 40-1. Twice-beaten Big 12 contenders West Virginia and Oklahoma State clock in at 80-1, and they are the only other teams with odds in double digits.
[h=2]Chalk Bits[/h]
Navy has been a home underdog just once the past three years, a 24-21 win over Pitt in 2013 as a five-point dog. This week versus Tulsa, though, the Mids are getting points in Annapolis for the third time already in 2016, having vanquished road favorites Houston and Memphis already.
From the end of October, 2012 through a month ago, Miami (Ohio) was 5-40. Now the Redhawks are on a four-game winning streak and are still alive for bowl eligibility. Road chalk, though, is an unfamiliar role for this crew. Miami hasn't laid points away from home since 2011 and hasn't been asked to overcome double digits on the road since 2005.
Miami isn't the only team trying to get on top of historically large weight this week. Georgia State began its program in 2010, Charlotte in 2013. Each squad is laying the most points in school history this week, the Panthers minus-12 versus UL-Monroe and the 49ers minus-11 against Rice.
ESPN INSIDER
Week 10 provided plenty of drama, as three of the top 13 teams lost, Colorado backers finally had to throw away a ticket, and Navy beat Notre Dame despite the Irish scoring on all but one possession. The oddsmakers had been telling us that Ohio State was the second-favorite to win the national title the whole time the Buckeyes were scuffling their way through October.
Now that Urban Meyer's team has turned in a dominating 62-3 beatdown against Nebraska, we'll check back in on how the suits in Vegas think the Bucks stack up with rival Michigan and No. 1 Alabama, plus the usual assortment of betting notes from around the sport.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Portfolio Checkup[/h][h=2]Buy[/h]
Regular readers know we're always inclined to buy this perpetually underrated outfit, but that's especially true in November. Bret Bielema went 49-41 against the number at Wisconsin and is 23-12 since his first year in Fayetteville. That record is built on closing strong, as the Razorbacks are 8-2 at the window the past two years once the calendar hits November.
This week might be a good time to hop on if you've not already been buying, as LSU hasn't beaten Arkansas by this margin since 2004, and the loser of the LSU-Bama clash has typically turned in some awful turns as chalk down the stretch. Also, the Razorbacks have held Leonard Fournette and the Tigers to just 95 combined rushing yards the past two years, and are coming off a dominating performance by the rush defense, holding Florida to just 12 yards.
[h=2]Sell[/h]
Last week there was considerable hand-wringing and mockery over Texas A&M's inclusion in the top four of the first playoff standings, and we wondered if the hubbub would be a distraction or spur an excellent performance from the Aggies in Starkville. Now we know it turned out to be the former, but this time last week we were most interested in testing the hypothesis that the Aggies might play with a chip on their shoulder after being told they didn't belong, that they didn't deserve what the committee had given them. Channeling that outside noise into a lackluster performance rather than a something-to-prove attitude was a failure of this team's leadership, and it doesn't inspire confidence that this bunch can find its mojo again this season after experiencing the sweet taste of national relevance only to squander that status immediately.
[h=2]Games of Interest, Week 11[/h]
Southern Cal has won five straight and looked good doing it, outgaining each of those five opponents by at least 150 yards and only getting challenged by Colorado. We've been advocating buying the Trojans, but this week it might be time to exercise some caution. Four of those five wins were at home, and Husky Stadium hasn't seen a visitor come within 24 points all year. More critically, ball security has been a major issue for Clay Helton's team. It's the only thing you can possibly blame for an otherwise dominating ATS loss versus Colorado, and it could get the Trojans in trouble against a ball-hawking Washington defense.
The Huskies lead the nation in turnover margin, with 22 takeaways and just seven giveaways. The Trojans, meanwhile, have fumbled more than all but six other teams, but have been fortunate to recover more than their share. A schedule filled with home games against teams that are not good at taking the ball away has kept freshman quarterback Sam Darnold's interception total down, but Husky Stadium is a difficult place for youth to perform its best right now, especially with opportunistic defensive backs like Budda Baker and Sidney Jones roaming the secondary. We've been backing the Trojans some this year, but we prefer them in the role of home favorites, and the alarming propensity for turnovers keeps us from trusting them against other good teams.
The Buffs finally failed to cover last week, but 8-1 against the spread and in sole command of the Pac-12 South is still not a bad place to be. Arizona is 1-8 against the spread and has lost six straight by ever-increasing margins, the latest a 69-7 humiliation in Pullman. The Cats are young in many spots, have suffered a slew of injuries and are stuck in neutral with a scuffling offense that's cracked 31 points just once all year.
Still, this is a spot where we'll have the home dog or nothing. The Buffs are coming off an emotionally charged win over UCLA, and are staring at league contenders Washington State and Utah in the season's final two weeks. It will be hard for Colorado to watch film of Arizona's past two outings and feel that threatened, yet Rich Rodriguez' teams have averaged 44 points, 590 total yards and 355 rushing yards against Colorado the past four meetings, all Arizona wins.
The number has finally caught up with Ralphie, and we'll credit Richrod's team with enough pride to bounce back and make a better showing this week in front of the home crowd in what -- despite the Buffaloes' gaudy record -- has to feel to the Cats' players and coaches like their most winnable game in more than a month.
[h=2]Movers and Shakers[/h]Ohio State cures its offensive ills and demolishes Nebraska 62-3, yet its price to win the national title lengthens? That's the story, and it's probably not due to any major re-evaluation of the Buckeyes, whom the oddsmakers have appreciated all along, but rather Alabama passing one of its toughest remaining tests. The Tide are now even money to win it all, the first time this year that any team has gained that status. This week's moves also saw Washington pull ahead of Clemson in the pecking order for the first time all season.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| TEAM | LAST WEEK | CURRENT |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 7-5 | Even |
| Ohio State | 3-1 | 7-2 |
| Michigan | 6-1 | 5-1 |
| Washington | 7-1 | 6-1 |
| Clemson | 6-1 | 7-1 |
| Louisville | 8-1 | 15-1 |
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody>
</aside>LSU, Nebraska and Texas A&M are off the radar after week 10 losses, so if you're looking for a dark horse beyond the above group that has comprised the top six for several weeks now, it will have to be Wisconsin at 20-1, Auburn at 30-1 or Oklahoma at 40-1. Twice-beaten Big 12 contenders West Virginia and Oklahoma State clock in at 80-1, and they are the only other teams with odds in double digits.
[h=2]Chalk Bits[/h]
Navy has been a home underdog just once the past three years, a 24-21 win over Pitt in 2013 as a five-point dog. This week versus Tulsa, though, the Mids are getting points in Annapolis for the third time already in 2016, having vanquished road favorites Houston and Memphis already.
From the end of October, 2012 through a month ago, Miami (Ohio) was 5-40. Now the Redhawks are on a four-game winning streak and are still alive for bowl eligibility. Road chalk, though, is an unfamiliar role for this crew. Miami hasn't laid points away from home since 2011 and hasn't been asked to overcome double digits on the road since 2005.
Miami isn't the only team trying to get on top of historically large weight this week. Georgia State began its program in 2010, Charlotte in 2013. Each squad is laying the most points in school history this week, the Panthers minus-12 versus UL-Monroe and the 49ers minus-11 against Rice.
