[h=1]Vegas handicappers' midseason rank for every NFL team[/h]Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
The New England Patriots stayed atop the NFL Vegas Rankings after their bye week, but even with several other teams on byes, there was a lot of shuffling in the top 10.
The next three teams in last week's rankings -- Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers -- lost their games on Sunday. The No. 5 Seattle Seahawks beat the Buffalo Bills 31-25 on Monday night but only pushed after closing as 6-point home favorites. The Arizona Cardinals, tied with the Atlanta Falcons at No. 6, were on their bye week, but the Falcons routed Tampa Bay on Thursday night, and our teams tied at No. 8 -- the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs -- both won Sunday (though the Chiefs didn't cover as 7-point home favorites in their 19-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars).
When all the dust had settled, the No. 2-8 teams were all separated by a single point.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 10 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes.
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Movin' on up
The Pittsburgh Steelers were increased by 2 points overall from last week. It was expected that our panel would upgrade them more when quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returned to the starting lineup, but their 21-14 loss at Baltimore and Big Ben's mediocre performance kept us from giving them more of an increase (in addition, some of our panelists didn't downgrade them as much while Roethlisberger was out). The Oakland Raiders and New Orleans Saintswere both increased by 1.5 points for their performances on the field; the Raiders beat the Broncos 30-20 on Sunday night as 1-point home favorites and the Saints beat the 49ers 41-23 as 5.5-point road favorites. The other teams to earn 1-point increases were the Falcons, Cowboys and Chargers.
Dropping down
We didn't have any teams that were downgraded by more than 1 point, but the teams that were docked by a single point were the Vikings, Packers, Buccaneers and 49ers.
[h=3]Week 10 value plays[/h]Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 14-13 ATS (51.9 percent) so far this season after going 1-2 ATS in Week 9 with Pittsburgh +2.5 losing at Baltimore, Denver +1 losing at Oakland and Buffalo +6.5 winning at Seattle.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 9 games over the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
[h=3]Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins[/h]Vegas consensus line: Washington -3 (EVEN)
Vegas Ranks: Minnesota -5.5 (24.5-19)
The Vikings have dropped three straight games, but our panel still has them as 5.5 points better than the Redskins on a neutral field. Washington gets a few points for home-field advantage, but we're not sure it should even go through the key number of 3, yet we're +3 on the other side (there's a mix of Washington -2.5/-3 but plenty of +3's available). Now, maybe our panel hasn't downgraded the Vikings enough during their losing streak, but we'll see. Minnesota is definitely a value play at the current number.
The play: Vikings +3
[h=3]Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants[/h]Vegas consensus line: New York -2.5
Vegas Ranks: Cincinnati -2.5 (23-20.5)
Our panel has the Bengals rated 2.5 better than the Giants on a neutral field, so even with New York/New Jersey home-field advantage, this line should around pick 'em. This line opened New York -2 and is now up to -2.5. We'll wait to see if it goes to 3, but even the Bengals +2.5 looks like a value play.
The play: Bengals +2.5
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
The New England Patriots stayed atop the NFL Vegas Rankings after their bye week, but even with several other teams on byes, there was a lot of shuffling in the top 10.
The next three teams in last week's rankings -- Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers -- lost their games on Sunday. The No. 5 Seattle Seahawks beat the Buffalo Bills 31-25 on Monday night but only pushed after closing as 6-point home favorites. The Arizona Cardinals, tied with the Atlanta Falcons at No. 6, were on their bye week, but the Falcons routed Tampa Bay on Thursday night, and our teams tied at No. 8 -- the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs -- both won Sunday (though the Chiefs didn't cover as 7-point home favorites in their 19-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars).
When all the dust had settled, the No. 2-8 teams were all separated by a single point.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 10 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes.
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| RANK | TEAM | NOV. 1 | NOV. 8 | FPI RANK | M-P RANK | SB ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 29 | 28.5 | 1 | 1 | 7-5 |
| T-2 | Atlanta | 24 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 14-1 |
| T-2 | Denver | 25.5 | 25 | 2 | T-15 | 25-1 |
| T-4 | Dallas | 23 | 24.5 | 4 | 4 | 8-1 |
| T-4 | Seattle | 24.5 | 24.5 | 9 | 2 | 8-1 |
| T-4 | Minnesota | 25.5 | 24.5 | 5 | 12 | 18-1 |
| T-7 | Green Bay | 25 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 20-1 |
| T-7 | Arizona | 24 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 30-1 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | 21.5 | 23.5 | 10 | 9 | 16-1 |
| T-10 | Oakland | 21.5 | 23 | 15 | 18 | 18-1 |
| T-10 | Kansas City | 23 | 23 | 12 | 17 | 20-1 |
| T-10 | Cincinnati | 22.5 | 23 | 17 | 13 | 50-1 |
| 13 | Carolina | 22.5 | 22.5 | 11 | 3 | 40-1 |
| 14 | San Diego | 21 | 22 | 14 | T-15 | 100-1 |
| T-15 | Philadelphia | 22 | 21.5 | 13 | 8 | 100-1 |
| T-15 | Buffalo | 21.5 | 21.5 | 8 | 10 | 200-1 |
| 17 | Houston | 21 | 21 | 22 | 28 | 50-1 |
| 18 | New York (N) | 20.5 | 20.5 | 18 | 14 | 30-1 |
| T-19 | Indianapolis | 19.5 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 30-1 |
| T-19 | New Orleans | 18.5 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 50-1 |
| T-19 | Washington | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 50-1 |
| T-19 | Baltimore | 19.5 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 50-1 |
| T-19 | Miami | 19.5 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 100-1 |
| 24 | Tennessee | 19 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 200-1 |
| T-25 | Detroit | 18 | 18.5 | 24 | 23 | 50-1 |
| T-25 | New York (A) | 18.5 | 18.5 | 27 | 21 | 1000-1 |
| 27 | Tampa Bay | 19 | 18 | 29 | 29 | 300-1 |
| 28 | Chicago | 17 | 17.5 | 26 | 25 | 500-1 |
| 29 | Los Angeles | 17 | 17 | 30 | 27 | 300-1 |
| 30 | Jacksonville | 16.5 | 16.5 | 28 | 31 | 1000-1 |
| 31 | Cleveland | 13.5 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 9999-1 |
| 32 | San Francisco | 13 | 12 | 31 | 30 | XXXXX |
| Odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday, Nov. 8 |
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Movin' on up
The Pittsburgh Steelers were increased by 2 points overall from last week. It was expected that our panel would upgrade them more when quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returned to the starting lineup, but their 21-14 loss at Baltimore and Big Ben's mediocre performance kept us from giving them more of an increase (in addition, some of our panelists didn't downgrade them as much while Roethlisberger was out). The Oakland Raiders and New Orleans Saintswere both increased by 1.5 points for their performances on the field; the Raiders beat the Broncos 30-20 on Sunday night as 1-point home favorites and the Saints beat the 49ers 41-23 as 5.5-point road favorites. The other teams to earn 1-point increases were the Falcons, Cowboys and Chargers.
Dropping down
We didn't have any teams that were downgraded by more than 1 point, but the teams that were docked by a single point were the Vikings, Packers, Buccaneers and 49ers.
[h=3]Week 10 value plays[/h]Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 14-13 ATS (51.9 percent) so far this season after going 1-2 ATS in Week 9 with Pittsburgh +2.5 losing at Baltimore, Denver +1 losing at Oakland and Buffalo +6.5 winning at Seattle.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 9 games over the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Vegas Ranks: Minnesota -5.5 (24.5-19)
The Vikings have dropped three straight games, but our panel still has them as 5.5 points better than the Redskins on a neutral field. Washington gets a few points for home-field advantage, but we're not sure it should even go through the key number of 3, yet we're +3 on the other side (there's a mix of Washington -2.5/-3 but plenty of +3's available). Now, maybe our panel hasn't downgraded the Vikings enough during their losing streak, but we'll see. Minnesota is definitely a value play at the current number.
The play: Vikings +3
[h=3]Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants[/h]Vegas consensus line: New York -2.5
Vegas Ranks: Cincinnati -2.5 (23-20.5)
Our panel has the Bengals rated 2.5 better than the Giants on a neutral field, so even with New York/New Jersey home-field advantage, this line should around pick 'em. This line opened New York -2 and is now up to -2.5. We'll wait to see if it goes to 3, but even the Bengals +2.5 looks like a value play.
The play: Bengals +2.5
