Two more that I will write up. Record in tracking forum as always.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS +7 Over Toledo
This game sets up a little bit like yesterday's WM/Kent game. A high powered, more gifted athletic team with a suspect defense going on the road to face a MAC opponent with a losing record. Vegas clearly notices the difference between Northern and Kent here, as NIU only getting 1 TD. When looking at recent statistics - both teams have a balanced offense (Toledo 52%, NIU 59% rushing). Toledo averaging 531 YDS last 4, Northern averaging 453 last 4. Toledo giving up 449, Northern 426. The difference is who the 4 opponents have been. Northern has played WM in the last 4 games, where Toledo has not, giving NIU an advantage in SOS both offensively and defensively. So, when adjusting for that, I actually have NIU defense much stronger, and offenses fairly similar ranking wise. So, you get points, at home, against a team with bad defense and some lookahead possibility. Also, not that I factor this that much, but NIU 6-0 over last 7 years as home dogs. Don't be surprised to see the upset here.
BOWLING GREEN/AKRON UNDER 71.5
Sometimes playing the under is painful. But I really don't understand why this is so high. Both teams are passing teams (BG 44% run last 4, Akron 45%), so there will be some throws in this one. However, over last 4, I have Akron in Top 20 in the nation in schedule adjusted pass D (YPA). Couple that with the fact that these two offenses are ranked very low in schedule adjusted YPG (Akron 118th, BG 76th), and looking at scores - BG games have only reached 70 once in last 5 games, and Akron games haven't hit 70 since the end of September (6 games), the under looks like the play here.
I would go 3 units under, and 2 units NIU.
Good luck to all,
HW
NORTHERN ILLINOIS +7 Over Toledo
This game sets up a little bit like yesterday's WM/Kent game. A high powered, more gifted athletic team with a suspect defense going on the road to face a MAC opponent with a losing record. Vegas clearly notices the difference between Northern and Kent here, as NIU only getting 1 TD. When looking at recent statistics - both teams have a balanced offense (Toledo 52%, NIU 59% rushing). Toledo averaging 531 YDS last 4, Northern averaging 453 last 4. Toledo giving up 449, Northern 426. The difference is who the 4 opponents have been. Northern has played WM in the last 4 games, where Toledo has not, giving NIU an advantage in SOS both offensively and defensively. So, when adjusting for that, I actually have NIU defense much stronger, and offenses fairly similar ranking wise. So, you get points, at home, against a team with bad defense and some lookahead possibility. Also, not that I factor this that much, but NIU 6-0 over last 7 years as home dogs. Don't be surprised to see the upset here.
BOWLING GREEN/AKRON UNDER 71.5
Sometimes playing the under is painful. But I really don't understand why this is so high. Both teams are passing teams (BG 44% run last 4, Akron 45%), so there will be some throws in this one. However, over last 4, I have Akron in Top 20 in the nation in schedule adjusted pass D (YPA). Couple that with the fact that these two offenses are ranked very low in schedule adjusted YPG (Akron 118th, BG 76th), and looking at scores - BG games have only reached 70 once in last 5 games, and Akron games haven't hit 70 since the end of September (6 games), the under looks like the play here.
I would go 3 units under, and 2 units NIU.
Good luck to all,
HW
