[h=1]Phil Steele's best Week 11 college football bets[/h]Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last year my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS). This year the straight-up record is 56-28 (67 percent), but the ATS record is lagging behind at 35-46-2 (43 percent).
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]Baylor Bears at No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners(-15.5)[/h]Saturday, Noon ET, ABC/ESPN2
At one point this season Oklahoma's record stood at just 2-2, but after the Sooners knocked off TCU on the road, I said they would finish 10-2 and be Big 12 champs -- and I've stuck with that statement each week. They're now 7-2, and headed toward achieving that goal. Last week, they were without both top running backs in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, but they should have both back this week.
Oklahoma is plus-166 yards per game in Big 12 play, and Baylor is just plus-50. While the Sooners allow 26 yards per game more on defense, they've faced my 22nd-toughest schedule and are holding foes to 37 yards per game below their season averages. Baylor is allowing opponents 10 yards per game more than their season averages and has faced my No. 83-toughest slate. The last time Oklahoma hosted Baylor, the Sooners jumped out to a 14-0 lead only to get steamrolled 48-3 over the rest of the game. It looked like they quit in the second half, and you can be sure coach Bob Stoops has reminded them of that embarrassment.
While Baylor is coming off losses to Texas and TCU, the Sooners should be fresh after facing Kansas and Iowa State, with a few extra days to prepare.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 49, Baylor 27
[h=2]No. 12 Colorado Buffaloes (-16) at Arizona Wildcats[/h]Saturday 10:00 ET, Fox Sports 1
In the last two weeks, I've won by picking against the Wildcats and have been rewarded for my confidence with covers by a combined 65 points. I will continue on that streak. Arizona is 0-6 in the Pac 12, losing its games by an average of 27 points per game. The Buffaloes defense is holding teams to 110 yards below their season averages, and Arizona is allowing their opponents 59 yards above their season averages.
Colorado has a balanced offense, averaging 214 rushing yards per game in Pac-12 play, while throwing for 247 yards per game on 65 percent completions. Will Colorado be motivated? Under Mike MacIntyre, they're 0-3 against the 'Cats, and will be looking to end that streak. Per my Phil Steele Plus ratings, Colorado is playing to an average game grade of 102.6, which is sixth best in the country. The Buffaloes roll here.
ATS pick: Colorado
Score: Colorado 41, Arizona 17
[h=2]No. 9 Auburn Tigers (-10) at Georgia Bulldogs[/h]Saturday 3:30 PM ET, CBS
Georgia has benefited from playing in the SEC East, managing a 3-4 conference record. The Bulldogs have faced just one team from the West, a game in which they were steamrolled by Ole Miss 45-14 and trailed 45-0 late in the third quarter; Auburn beat that same Ole Miss team 40-29. Auburn has taken on my 18th-toughest schedule, facing teams like Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU. All are better than any team Georgia has faced.
Auburn was peeking ahead to this game last week, and only has Alabama A&M on deck before wrapping up its season against Alabama. My computer has Auburn playing at an average game grade of 100.5, which is seventh-best in the country, while Georgia is at an 84.5 level, which is 57th. Georgia was lucky to get past Kentucky last week, and Auburn has won its SEC road games by 17.5 points per game.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 31, Georgia 14
[h=2]San Diego State Aztecs (-23.5) at Nevada Wolf Pack[/h]Saturday, 10:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network
San Diego State's play is much different against conference opponents over the last two years. Last year, they allowed 373 yards per game in nonconference play, but just 240 yards per game in Mountain West action; this year, 363 yards per game in nonconference play and just 203 against Mountain West foes. They've allowed a total of two offensive touchdowns in their five conference games, with one of those a garbage score late by Utah State. In those five games, they've also allowed just two field goals.
While the Aztecs' offense is not explosive, they do have the nation's leading rusher in Donnel Pumphrey, who is going up against a rush defense that's allowing 302 yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry in Mountain West play. The Aztecs delivered for me last week, beating Hawaii 55-0, and they're now 11-2 ATS in Mountain West action in the last two years.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 38, Nevada 6
[h=2]Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen (+1)[/h]Saturday, 12:00 ET, CBS Sports Network
Tulsa is 7-2, with its only losses coming against Ohio State and Houston. They're listed in the others receiving votes section of the national rankings, which means a win here could have them in the top 25 for the first time since 2010. They're up against Navy, though -- a team that usually has its option fine-tuned in the second half of the year.
Over the last four years, Navy has averaged 27.4 points per game in the first six games of the season, and in the next five games (leading up to the Army-Navy game) they've averaged 39.6 points per game. This season they averaged 21 points per game in their first three versus FBS foes, and now 40.3 over their last four. Navy has won all seven of its American Athletic Conference home games, but is a 'dog here. Navy has only been a home 'dog three times in the last four years, and pulled outright upsets each time.
ATS pick: Navy
Score: Navy 41, Tulsa 37
[h=2]California Golden Bears (+15) at No. 23 Washington State Cougars[/h]Saturday, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN
Last week's results give us some solid line value here. Both teams went into Oregon State recently, and each was favored by two touchdowns, which means their power ratings were almost even. Cal just faced perhaps the top two teams in the Pac-12 in Washington and USC, and lost by 21 and 39, respectively. Washington State only got past Oregon State by four, but last week I used them in this column and they rolled to a 69-7 rout over Arizona.
What would've been about a seven-point spread is now up to over two touchdowns. Cal has a slight edge on offense, but Washington State has the stronger defense. Washington State has a showdown with Colorado on deck, and prior to last week's blowout, the Cougars had only won their previous three Pac 12 games by six, five and four points.
ATS pick: California
Score: Washington State 49, California 41
[h=2]Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 14 Virginia Tech Hokies (-14)[/h]Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPNU
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Virginia Tech has barely gotten past Pitt and Duke on the road in the last two weeks, winning each by just three points and needing a blocked field goal for a touchdown last week. Two weeks ago, Georgia Tech beat that same Duke team by three. The last four meetings have been decided by two, three, seven and three points; in this one, Georgia Tech is a double-digit 'dog. While those facts favor Georgia Tech, I'm laying the lumber here. Virginia Tech is out-gaining their ACC foes by 112 yards per game, while Georgia Tech is being outgained by 89 yards per game in league play.
Virginia Tech has quarterback Jerod Evans, who has a 21-2 TD:INT ratio, but the team's at its best when that attack is balanced with a strong run game. Georgia Tech's defense is allowing opponents 47 yards above their season average, giving up 5.6 yards per carry and 66 percent completions in league play.
The clincher here is that Bud Foster has held Georgia Tech to just 182 yards per game rushing in their last four meetings, with Georgia Tech averaging 302 yards per game in that span.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 37, Georgia Tech 17
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last year my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS). This year the straight-up record is 56-28 (67 percent), but the ATS record is lagging behind at 35-46-2 (43 percent).
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]Baylor Bears at No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners(-15.5)[/h]Saturday, Noon ET, ABC/ESPN2
At one point this season Oklahoma's record stood at just 2-2, but after the Sooners knocked off TCU on the road, I said they would finish 10-2 and be Big 12 champs -- and I've stuck with that statement each week. They're now 7-2, and headed toward achieving that goal. Last week, they were without both top running backs in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, but they should have both back this week.
Oklahoma is plus-166 yards per game in Big 12 play, and Baylor is just plus-50. While the Sooners allow 26 yards per game more on defense, they've faced my 22nd-toughest schedule and are holding foes to 37 yards per game below their season averages. Baylor is allowing opponents 10 yards per game more than their season averages and has faced my No. 83-toughest slate. The last time Oklahoma hosted Baylor, the Sooners jumped out to a 14-0 lead only to get steamrolled 48-3 over the rest of the game. It looked like they quit in the second half, and you can be sure coach Bob Stoops has reminded them of that embarrassment.
While Baylor is coming off losses to Texas and TCU, the Sooners should be fresh after facing Kansas and Iowa State, with a few extra days to prepare.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 49, Baylor 27
[h=2]No. 12 Colorado Buffaloes (-16) at Arizona Wildcats[/h]Saturday 10:00 ET, Fox Sports 1
In the last two weeks, I've won by picking against the Wildcats and have been rewarded for my confidence with covers by a combined 65 points. I will continue on that streak. Arizona is 0-6 in the Pac 12, losing its games by an average of 27 points per game. The Buffaloes defense is holding teams to 110 yards below their season averages, and Arizona is allowing their opponents 59 yards above their season averages.
Colorado has a balanced offense, averaging 214 rushing yards per game in Pac-12 play, while throwing for 247 yards per game on 65 percent completions. Will Colorado be motivated? Under Mike MacIntyre, they're 0-3 against the 'Cats, and will be looking to end that streak. Per my Phil Steele Plus ratings, Colorado is playing to an average game grade of 102.6, which is sixth best in the country. The Buffaloes roll here.
ATS pick: Colorado
Score: Colorado 41, Arizona 17
[h=2]No. 9 Auburn Tigers (-10) at Georgia Bulldogs[/h]Saturday 3:30 PM ET, CBS
Georgia has benefited from playing in the SEC East, managing a 3-4 conference record. The Bulldogs have faced just one team from the West, a game in which they were steamrolled by Ole Miss 45-14 and trailed 45-0 late in the third quarter; Auburn beat that same Ole Miss team 40-29. Auburn has taken on my 18th-toughest schedule, facing teams like Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU. All are better than any team Georgia has faced.
Auburn was peeking ahead to this game last week, and only has Alabama A&M on deck before wrapping up its season against Alabama. My computer has Auburn playing at an average game grade of 100.5, which is seventh-best in the country, while Georgia is at an 84.5 level, which is 57th. Georgia was lucky to get past Kentucky last week, and Auburn has won its SEC road games by 17.5 points per game.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 31, Georgia 14
[h=2]San Diego State Aztecs (-23.5) at Nevada Wolf Pack[/h]Saturday, 10:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network
San Diego State's play is much different against conference opponents over the last two years. Last year, they allowed 373 yards per game in nonconference play, but just 240 yards per game in Mountain West action; this year, 363 yards per game in nonconference play and just 203 against Mountain West foes. They've allowed a total of two offensive touchdowns in their five conference games, with one of those a garbage score late by Utah State. In those five games, they've also allowed just two field goals.
While the Aztecs' offense is not explosive, they do have the nation's leading rusher in Donnel Pumphrey, who is going up against a rush defense that's allowing 302 yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry in Mountain West play. The Aztecs delivered for me last week, beating Hawaii 55-0, and they're now 11-2 ATS in Mountain West action in the last two years.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 38, Nevada 6
[h=2]Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen (+1)[/h]Saturday, 12:00 ET, CBS Sports Network
Tulsa is 7-2, with its only losses coming against Ohio State and Houston. They're listed in the others receiving votes section of the national rankings, which means a win here could have them in the top 25 for the first time since 2010. They're up against Navy, though -- a team that usually has its option fine-tuned in the second half of the year.
Over the last four years, Navy has averaged 27.4 points per game in the first six games of the season, and in the next five games (leading up to the Army-Navy game) they've averaged 39.6 points per game. This season they averaged 21 points per game in their first three versus FBS foes, and now 40.3 over their last four. Navy has won all seven of its American Athletic Conference home games, but is a 'dog here. Navy has only been a home 'dog three times in the last four years, and pulled outright upsets each time.
ATS pick: Navy
Score: Navy 41, Tulsa 37
[h=2]California Golden Bears (+15) at No. 23 Washington State Cougars[/h]Saturday, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN
Last week's results give us some solid line value here. Both teams went into Oregon State recently, and each was favored by two touchdowns, which means their power ratings were almost even. Cal just faced perhaps the top two teams in the Pac-12 in Washington and USC, and lost by 21 and 39, respectively. Washington State only got past Oregon State by four, but last week I used them in this column and they rolled to a 69-7 rout over Arizona.
What would've been about a seven-point spread is now up to over two touchdowns. Cal has a slight edge on offense, but Washington State has the stronger defense. Washington State has a showdown with Colorado on deck, and prior to last week's blowout, the Cougars had only won their previous three Pac 12 games by six, five and four points.
ATS pick: California
Score: Washington State 49, California 41
[h=2]Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 14 Virginia Tech Hokies (-14)[/h]Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPNU
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Virginia Tech has barely gotten past Pitt and Duke on the road in the last two weeks, winning each by just three points and needing a blocked field goal for a touchdown last week. Two weeks ago, Georgia Tech beat that same Duke team by three. The last four meetings have been decided by two, three, seven and three points; in this one, Georgia Tech is a double-digit 'dog. While those facts favor Georgia Tech, I'm laying the lumber here. Virginia Tech is out-gaining their ACC foes by 112 yards per game, while Georgia Tech is being outgained by 89 yards per game in league play.
Virginia Tech has quarterback Jerod Evans, who has a 21-2 TD:INT ratio, but the team's at its best when that attack is balanced with a strong run game. Georgia Tech's defense is allowing opponents 47 yards above their season average, giving up 5.6 yards per carry and 66 percent completions in league play.
The clincher here is that Bud Foster has held Georgia Tech to just 182 yards per game rushing in their last four meetings, with Georgia Tech averaging 302 yards per game in that span.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 37, Georgia Tech 17
