[h=1]How to bet Baltimore-Cleveland[/h]NFL Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 10 games, starting with Thursday night's Baltimore-Cleveland matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens[/h]Spread: Opened Baltimore -10; now Baltimore -10
Total: Opened 45; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent pick Cleveland
Public perception: The public is mostly split on this game, though let's be honest: This might have the lowest betting handle among a string of unappealing Thursday matchups.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps have slightly landed on the side of Cleveland, but that is mostly out of habit of seeing value in NFL double-digit underdogs.
Dave Tuley's take: I had the Browns +10 against the Dolphins in Week 3, and that turned out well in a spread-covering 30-24 loss. However, they've been double-digit 'dogs twice since then -- against New England and Cincinnati -- and failed to cover both times. I wrote in our midseason review that the bad teams are really bad this season, and it's hard to back them no matter how many points they're getting. Cleveland qualifies in that group. I would consider grabbing the points if Josh McCown were back in the lineup, but I can't trust the offense with Cody Kessler.
Baltimore's No. 2-ranked defense should shut the Browns down again, but I'm not sure the Ravens offense will be able to take advantage of the Browns' No. 31 defense enough, so the under looks like the best play tonight.
Pick: Under 45 (lean to Browns +10)
Rufus Peabody: This game features two offenses that are pretty evenly matched and two defenses that are at opposite extremes. Dallas ran the ball 39 times (compared to only 28 pass plays), and because rushing is less efficient (on a yards-per-play basis), the total 6.4 yards per play is quite misleading; Cleveland's defense gave up a season-high 61.1 percent play success rate and 9.1 yards per pass play.
Baltimore's defense has gone mostly unnoticed but has been one of the league's best. The Ravens rank third in football in yards per play allowed, first in rushing defense and first in play success allowed. They shut down the Pittsburgh offense last week with their defensive performance grading as the best in the NFL since Week 6. Still, it seems crazy that a team with an offense as bad as Baltimore's could be laying 10 points against anyone. The Ravens haven't cracked the 30 percent play success mark in three weeks! My numbers make the Ravens nine-point favorites, but that isn't enough to make the Browns a play.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody line: Baltimore -9
Erin Rynning: The major question in this Thursday contest is: What's going to give? Will it be the Ravens' offense -- ranked 30th in the NFL, at 4.8 yards per play -- or the Browns defense, ranked 30th in the NFL, allowing 6.3 yards per play? The Ravens changed offensive coordinators from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg three games ago, with little positive change. One of the reasons for the change was hope for a strong run game, but under Mornhinweg, they're averaging 2.2 yards per carry. If not for a 95-yard Mike Wallace catch-and-run, the Ravens would have averaged 2.9 yards per play last week against a questionable Steelers defense. The Ravens are also expected to be without their best offensive lineman, Marshal Yanda, for this game. Yes, the Browns' defense is troubling, but it will have an opportunity to make amends against the Ravens.
The Browns are expected to go with Kessler under center once again. Although this is the better long-term move, McCown still gives them a better opportunity to put points on the scoreboard against a Ravens defense allowing just 5 yards per play. I'll lean under the total, with an official play at under 45.5 or more.
Pick: Under 45.5 (or more)
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]John Parolin
1.5 passing touchdowns by Joe Flacco (Over: -130, Under: +110)
Flacco has thrown six passing touchdowns this season, fewer than any quarterback in the league with more than 200 attempts. Flacco's lack of production is uncharacteristic, even by his standards; he threw for 14 scores in 10 games last season and 27 in 2014, his last 16-game season. Flacco has thrown fewer than two touchdowns in seven of eight games this season.
But don't get too concerned. Flacco's one game with two touchdown passes was Week 2, a 25-20 win over these Browns on the road. Cleveland's pass defense has been a big problem; the Browns have allowed 22 touchdowns in nine games this season, second-most in the league. Cleveland has allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season, and the quarterback in that one game was Ryan Fitzpatrick. Don't expect the short week to help the Browns' defense, especially considering Flacco has already picked them apart once this season.
The play: Over (-130)
Will Terrance West score a touchdown? (Yes: EVEN, No: -120)
As a team, Cleveland has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for second in the league and four times as many as the league's stingiest run defenses (Chiefs and Cowboys, with three each). That includes seven on rushes at or inside the 5-yard line, with short-yardage touchdowns being scored by Cleveland opponent's in six of eight games. West gets the majority of the touches out of the Ravens' backfield, including seven of the team's nine rushing attempts at or inside the 5-yard line this season. Teams have had plenty of opportunity against Cleveland's defense, and with the added reward for "yes," take a shot here.
The play: Yes (EVEN)
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 10 games, starting with Thursday night's Baltimore-Cleveland matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Total: Opened 45; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent pick Cleveland
Public perception: The public is mostly split on this game, though let's be honest: This might have the lowest betting handle among a string of unappealing Thursday matchups.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps have slightly landed on the side of Cleveland, but that is mostly out of habit of seeing value in NFL double-digit underdogs.
Dave Tuley's take: I had the Browns +10 against the Dolphins in Week 3, and that turned out well in a spread-covering 30-24 loss. However, they've been double-digit 'dogs twice since then -- against New England and Cincinnati -- and failed to cover both times. I wrote in our midseason review that the bad teams are really bad this season, and it's hard to back them no matter how many points they're getting. Cleveland qualifies in that group. I would consider grabbing the points if Josh McCown were back in the lineup, but I can't trust the offense with Cody Kessler.
Baltimore's No. 2-ranked defense should shut the Browns down again, but I'm not sure the Ravens offense will be able to take advantage of the Browns' No. 31 defense enough, so the under looks like the best play tonight.
Pick: Under 45 (lean to Browns +10)
Rufus Peabody: This game features two offenses that are pretty evenly matched and two defenses that are at opposite extremes. Dallas ran the ball 39 times (compared to only 28 pass plays), and because rushing is less efficient (on a yards-per-play basis), the total 6.4 yards per play is quite misleading; Cleveland's defense gave up a season-high 61.1 percent play success rate and 9.1 yards per pass play.
Baltimore's defense has gone mostly unnoticed but has been one of the league's best. The Ravens rank third in football in yards per play allowed, first in rushing defense and first in play success allowed. They shut down the Pittsburgh offense last week with their defensive performance grading as the best in the NFL since Week 6. Still, it seems crazy that a team with an offense as bad as Baltimore's could be laying 10 points against anyone. The Ravens haven't cracked the 30 percent play success mark in three weeks! My numbers make the Ravens nine-point favorites, but that isn't enough to make the Browns a play.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody line: Baltimore -9
Erin Rynning: The major question in this Thursday contest is: What's going to give? Will it be the Ravens' offense -- ranked 30th in the NFL, at 4.8 yards per play -- or the Browns defense, ranked 30th in the NFL, allowing 6.3 yards per play? The Ravens changed offensive coordinators from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg three games ago, with little positive change. One of the reasons for the change was hope for a strong run game, but under Mornhinweg, they're averaging 2.2 yards per carry. If not for a 95-yard Mike Wallace catch-and-run, the Ravens would have averaged 2.9 yards per play last week against a questionable Steelers defense. The Ravens are also expected to be without their best offensive lineman, Marshal Yanda, for this game. Yes, the Browns' defense is troubling, but it will have an opportunity to make amends against the Ravens.
The Browns are expected to go with Kessler under center once again. Although this is the better long-term move, McCown still gives them a better opportunity to put points on the scoreboard against a Ravens defense allowing just 5 yards per play. I'll lean under the total, with an official play at under 45.5 or more.
Pick: Under 45.5 (or more)
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]John Parolin
1.5 passing touchdowns by Joe Flacco (Over: -130, Under: +110)
Flacco has thrown six passing touchdowns this season, fewer than any quarterback in the league with more than 200 attempts. Flacco's lack of production is uncharacteristic, even by his standards; he threw for 14 scores in 10 games last season and 27 in 2014, his last 16-game season. Flacco has thrown fewer than two touchdowns in seven of eight games this season.
But don't get too concerned. Flacco's one game with two touchdown passes was Week 2, a 25-20 win over these Browns on the road. Cleveland's pass defense has been a big problem; the Browns have allowed 22 touchdowns in nine games this season, second-most in the league. Cleveland has allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season, and the quarterback in that one game was Ryan Fitzpatrick. Don't expect the short week to help the Browns' defense, especially considering Flacco has already picked them apart once this season.
The play: Over (-130)
Will Terrance West score a touchdown? (Yes: EVEN, No: -120)
As a team, Cleveland has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for second in the league and four times as many as the league's stingiest run defenses (Chiefs and Cowboys, with three each). That includes seven on rushes at or inside the 5-yard line, with short-yardage touchdowns being scored by Cleveland opponent's in six of eight games. West gets the majority of the touches out of the Ravens' backfield, including seven of the team's nine rushing attempts at or inside the 5-yard line this season. Teams have had plenty of opportunity against Cleveland's defense, and with the added reward for "yes," take a shot here.
The play: Yes (EVEN)
