[h=1]How to bet Seattle-New England[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 10 games, including the Seattle-New England Sunday night matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots[/h]Spread: Opened New England -7; now New England -7.5 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 48.5; now 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent New England
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Public perception: The public is all over the Patriots, and with good reason, as they're 4-0 straight up and against the spread since Tom Brady returned from suspension -- and even avenged their only pre-Brady loss to the Bills.
Wiseguys' view: Some books opened this at New England -7 and as low as -6.5, and early sharps backed the Patriots at those reduced prices. At 7.5, it's more split. Regardless, the sports books are going to need to knock out earlier teasers or they'll be probably facing a big liability to the Patriots -7.5, as it'll be popular with sharps and squares alike.
Dave Tuley's take: Apologies to Chris Berman, but no one circles the wagons like the Seahawks. Seattle is actually not having that great of a season, yet Pete Carroll has them at 5-2-1 and currently the second seed in the NFC. No running game? No problem: QB Russell Wilson takes the offense on his shoulders. No pass protection? Wilson moves the pocket to give himself time. The defense, No. 9 in yards allowed, looks vulnerable? They rally the troops and bend but don't break (No. 3 in points allowed). And if a team is trying to kick a field goal or extra point, they send Bobby Wagner over the line or Richard Sherman around the edge to put pressure (or worse) on your kicker.
Oh, and the Seahawks and Wilson step up as underdogs. According to Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Info, they're 3-0 ATS when underdogs of four points or more since 2012. The Patriots might prevail (as Bill Belichick brings a lot of the same intangibles in terms or game planning and game management), but I love the Seahawks' chances to keep this within one score of this inflated line.
The pick: Seahawks +7.5*
Rufus Peabody:
This game could be a preview of the Super Bowl. It's the most likely Super Bowl matchup, with a 17 percent chance of occurring, based on the 30,000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs I run each week. It's also a matchup of the top two teams in the Massey-Peabody ratings. New England has been fabulous this season, while Seattle has not really passed the "eye test."
However, Seattle is better than its record. The Seahawks have the top-ranked defense in football, according to Massey-Peabody, and the sixth-ranked pass offense. They have, however, struggled on third and fourth downs relative to their overall offensive baseline. I expect that to improve.
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -6.5, Total: 47.4
Pick: Lean Seattle +7.5
Erin Rynning:
The Patriots' offense has been brilliant since the return of Tom Brady this season, as the veteran QB has 12 touchdown passes without an interception. However, this will be easily the best defense Brady has faced and arguably the toughest the Patriots have faced as a team all season; the Seahawks are ranked No. 3 in points allowed. But the Seahawks' offense remains a bit of a mystery, notably the status of Wilson. He is definitely hampered in the running game, while the offensive line remains a work in progress. It's a tough game to call given the plethora of question marks.
Play: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 27, Seattle 19
The pick: New England -7.5, Under 48.5
John Parolin's prop bet pick:
278.5 pass yards by Tom Brady (O/U -110)
The schedule makers did the Seahawks no favors. Off a Monday night win against the Bills, Seattle is rewarded with a cross-country trip and a short week to play the Patriots off a bye. Ouch. In Brady's first four games, he has thrown 12 touchdown passes with zero interceptions and has averaged 330 yards per game. He was under 315 yards once -- throwing for 222 in a 27-16 win in Week 7 against the Steelers. What happened there? Brady didn't have to throw all that often as New England had a 14-point lead with 10:58 left in the 1st half and LeGarrette Blount rushed for 127 yards on 5.3 yards per rush.
The Seahawks have struggled to run the ball effectively due to shaky offensive line play, and their yards per rush and yards per game averages are both third-worst in the league. A Seattle win means Wilson is throwing (which would in turn encourage Brady to be throwing at home), while a Patriots win isn't likely due to a heavy dose of rushing. Seattle is allowing 3.5 yards per rush this season, fifth-best in the league. Brady threw for 328 yards in Super Bowl XLIX, and 395 in a Week 6 loss to Seattle back in 2012.
The play: Over
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 10 games, including the Seattle-New England Sunday night matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
Total: Opened 48.5; now 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent New England
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Public perception: The public is all over the Patriots, and with good reason, as they're 4-0 straight up and against the spread since Tom Brady returned from suspension -- and even avenged their only pre-Brady loss to the Bills.
Wiseguys' view: Some books opened this at New England -7 and as low as -6.5, and early sharps backed the Patriots at those reduced prices. At 7.5, it's more split. Regardless, the sports books are going to need to knock out earlier teasers or they'll be probably facing a big liability to the Patriots -7.5, as it'll be popular with sharps and squares alike.
Dave Tuley's take: Apologies to Chris Berman, but no one circles the wagons like the Seahawks. Seattle is actually not having that great of a season, yet Pete Carroll has them at 5-2-1 and currently the second seed in the NFC. No running game? No problem: QB Russell Wilson takes the offense on his shoulders. No pass protection? Wilson moves the pocket to give himself time. The defense, No. 9 in yards allowed, looks vulnerable? They rally the troops and bend but don't break (No. 3 in points allowed). And if a team is trying to kick a field goal or extra point, they send Bobby Wagner over the line or Richard Sherman around the edge to put pressure (or worse) on your kicker.
Oh, and the Seahawks and Wilson step up as underdogs. According to Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Info, they're 3-0 ATS when underdogs of four points or more since 2012. The Patriots might prevail (as Bill Belichick brings a lot of the same intangibles in terms or game planning and game management), but I love the Seahawks' chances to keep this within one score of this inflated line.
The pick: Seahawks +7.5*
Rufus Peabody:
This game could be a preview of the Super Bowl. It's the most likely Super Bowl matchup, with a 17 percent chance of occurring, based on the 30,000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs I run each week. It's also a matchup of the top two teams in the Massey-Peabody ratings. New England has been fabulous this season, while Seattle has not really passed the "eye test."
However, Seattle is better than its record. The Seahawks have the top-ranked defense in football, according to Massey-Peabody, and the sixth-ranked pass offense. They have, however, struggled on third and fourth downs relative to their overall offensive baseline. I expect that to improve.
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -6.5, Total: 47.4
Pick: Lean Seattle +7.5
Erin Rynning:
The Patriots' offense has been brilliant since the return of Tom Brady this season, as the veteran QB has 12 touchdown passes without an interception. However, this will be easily the best defense Brady has faced and arguably the toughest the Patriots have faced as a team all season; the Seahawks are ranked No. 3 in points allowed. But the Seahawks' offense remains a bit of a mystery, notably the status of Wilson. He is definitely hampered in the running game, while the offensive line remains a work in progress. It's a tough game to call given the plethora of question marks.
Play: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 27, Seattle 19
The pick: New England -7.5, Under 48.5
John Parolin's prop bet pick:
278.5 pass yards by Tom Brady (O/U -110)
The schedule makers did the Seahawks no favors. Off a Monday night win against the Bills, Seattle is rewarded with a cross-country trip and a short week to play the Patriots off a bye. Ouch. In Brady's first four games, he has thrown 12 touchdown passes with zero interceptions and has averaged 330 yards per game. He was under 315 yards once -- throwing for 222 in a 27-16 win in Week 7 against the Steelers. What happened there? Brady didn't have to throw all that often as New England had a 14-point lead with 10:58 left in the 1st half and LeGarrette Blount rushed for 127 yards on 5.3 yards per rush.
The Seahawks have struggled to run the ball effectively due to shaky offensive line play, and their yards per rush and yards per game averages are both third-worst in the league. A Seattle win means Wilson is throwing (which would in turn encourage Brady to be throwing at home), while a Patriots win isn't likely due to a heavy dose of rushing. Seattle is allowing 3.5 yards per rush this season, fifth-best in the league. Brady threw for 328 yards in Super Bowl XLIX, and 395 in a Week 6 loss to Seattle back in 2012.
The play: Over
