[h=1]Week 10 NFL betting takeaways[/h]Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 10 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leads to them crying "bad beat!" Of course, there also are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 10 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
[h=2]Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)[/h]
Carolina (-3) in 20-17 home loss to Kansas City
The Panthers jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked to be in total control for the second straight week (last week, they gave up a garbage-time TD to the Rams to only push 13-10 as 3-point favorites). Well, this Sunday, the Panthers allowed the Chiefs to get back in the game without a single offensive touchdown as Eric Berry's 42-yard interception return turned the game around with 10:32 to play. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Alex Smith hit Travis Kelce for the 2-point conversion to make the score 17-14 and it looked like the Panthers would have another bad push, but instead the offense punted twice and the Chiefs tied it 17-17 and then Kelvin Benjamin was stripped by Marcus Peters to set up the game-winning field goal. The Chiefs were outplayed most of the game, but they know how to pull out these close games. The Panthers have lost that ability.</offer>
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Kansas City over Carolina by six points.
New Orleans (-170 money line) in 25-23 home loss to Denver
This would normally be categorized as a right-side winner for the Broncos as they were leading most of the game and only trailed by more than the spread once at 17-10; and especially considering that they still would have covered as 3-point road underdogs if Will Lutz had made the go-ahead PAT for a 24-23 Saints win. However, despite the extra point being moved back and no longer automatic, we're still used to a team that rallies to tie the score being able to kick the extra point to go ahead with a minute left. So, when Justin Simmons leaped over the line and blocked the kick and Will Parks ran it back 84 yards for the winning 2-point defensive conversion (and there was also controversy over whether or not Parks stepped out of bounds) -- well, that's still a bad beat, at least for New Orleans money-line bettors. The Broncos defense stepped up time and time again.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New Orleans over Denver by seven points.
[h=2]Easy covers (clearly right sides)[/h]
Thursday: Baltimore (-7.5) in 28-7 win over Cleveland
The Browns actually took a 7-3 lead after a 75-yard drive in the second quarter and still led 7-6 at halftime, but the Ravens pulled away in the second half and coasted to victory. Cleveland coach Hue Jackson made the odd decision of benching Cody Kessler, even though he put the Browns in the lead, and the offense fell apart behind Josh McCown. I know it was against the Cleveland offense, but the Baltimore defense continues to look strong. It will get a big test next week on the road against the Cowboys.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Baltimore over Cleveland by 12 points.
Tampa Bay (+3) in 36-10 home win over Chicago
The Buccaneers never trailed after closing as 3-point home underdogs (I'm still trying to figure out how the Bears were favored), and Chicago's only touchdown came on a Hail Mary at the end of the first half that Cameron Meredith caught on a deflection. The Bears' scripted offense wasn't anywhere near as effective and gave away a TD on Jay Cutler's pick-six to Chris Conte to start the scoring. The Bucs still lack a running game but Jameis Winston showed he can still light up the scoreboard against porous defenses.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tampa Bay over Chicago by 12 points.
Tennessee (+3) in 47-25 home win over Green Bay
The Titans jumped all over the Packers 21-0 in the first quarter and answered nearly every Green Bay score with another of their own. Marcus Mariota has never looked better in his pro career and DeMarco Murray continued to support him in the running game (and adding a TD pass of his own for good measure). Aaron Rodgers had some good moments but threw two interceptions, and the Packers' defense just didn't have any answers.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee over Green Bay by 12 points.
Houston (+3) in 24-21 win at Jacksonville
The Texans never trailed after closing as 3-point road underdogs (like the Chicago-Tampa Bay game, I still don't understand why the Jaguars were favored). Kareem Jackson intercepted Blake Bortles and returned it 42 yards for the opening TD. Even though the Jaguars responded with a TD drive, the Texans came right back with a TD drive of their own and the outcome never seemed in doubt. Lamar Miller had a decent game with 83 rushing yards and Brock Osweiler had two TD passes, but the Houston offense doesn't scare anyone as Osweiler only threw for 99 yards on 27 passes (less than 4 yards per attempt). The good news is the Texans finally won on the road (though take that with a grain of salt as it was at Jacksonville).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Houston over Jacksonville by 10 points.
Miami (+4) in 31-24 road win at San Diego
This was close to a 50/50 result (certainly closer than the Massey-Peabody score indicates) as the Chargers jumped out to a 10-0 lead and were driving for the winning score with the game tied 24-24 (though it was just as likely to be a non-covering FG instead of a spread-covering TD) before Kiko Alonso picked off Philip Rivers and returned it 60 yards for the Dolphins' 31-24 upset. Jay Ajayi continues to set the tone for Miami's offense, though they also got two TDs from his backup, Damien Williams.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Miami over San Diego by 21 points.
San Francisco (+14) in 23-20 loss at Arizona
The Cardinals jumped out to a 14-0 lead (exactly the closing spread) with two David Johnson TDs, but never got over the spread. In fact, the 49ers rallied all the way back to tie the game 20-20 on Colin Kaepernick's 4-yard TD run with 1:55 to play, but Arizona survived with a Chandler Catanzaro FG as time expired. The Cardinals gained over 400 yards but turned the ball over four times to keep the 49ers in the game; that's a concern as they're trying to get back in the playoff hunt.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Francisco over Arizona by seven points.
Seattle (+7.5) in 31-24 win at New England
A lot of people would put this in the 50-50 category since there were seven lead changes, but the Seahawks never trailed by more than the 7.5-point spread and still would have covered if the Patriots had scored late to force overtime. Both teams showed why they're at the top of their respective leagues (Cowboys notwithstanding), and the Patriots will recover from this loss. Seattle got a boost from running back C.J. Prosise, giving them a running game and also giving Russell Wilson another option in the passing game.
[h=2]50-50 ATS results[/h]
Washington (-3) in 26-20 home win over Minnesota
This was a strange game. The Redskins jumped out to a 14-0 lead but the Vikings rallied back and took a 20-14 halftime lead on a 3-yard TD pass from Sam Bradford to Adam Thielen as time expired at the end of the second quarter. However, a key play was Blair Walsh missing another extra point. That allowed the Redskins to tie the game with two FGs in the third quarter and then take a 23-20 lead in the fourth (to sit right on the 3-point spread) before going up 6 on a late Dustin Hopkins FG after a Bradford INT when it looked like the Vikings might tie the game or regain the lead. The Minnesota D kept the Vikings in the game, but the offense couldn't take advantage.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington over Minnesota by three points.
Philadelphia (-1.5) in 24-15 home win over Atlanta
The Eagles were mostly the right side (and the Massey-Peabody numbers seems to agree), but it wasn't until the final score that the Eagles led by more than a TD above the spread. The Falcons stayed within 7-6 at halftime and 10-9 at the end of the third quarter, and even took a 15-13 lead on Taylor Gabriel's 76-yard TD pass from Matt Ryan. Julio Jones also dropped an easy pass that would have extended another drive. But give credit to the return of the Eagles defense in holding down the league's No. 1 offense and Ryan Mathews finally stepped up for the offense with two TDs and a two-point conversion.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Philadelphia over Atlanta by 13 points.
Los Angeles (-1) in 9-6 win over New York Jets
This was an ugly game, as the score indicates. The over/under of 38.5 was the lowest of the weekend and the under was never in doubt. The Jets took a 6-3 lead in the second quarter on Bryce Petty's first pro TD pass (on a hook-and-ladder play), but Nick Folkmissed the PAT. The Rams only got three FGs from Greg Zuerlien as the biggest lead of the whole game was three points. The defenses were the best units on the field at all times, though that's not saying much when it's Case Keenum vs. Bryce Petty.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Los Angeles over N.Y. Jets by three points.
Dallas (+3) in 35-30 road win at Pittsburgh
This was an exciting game with seven lead changes and definitely a 50-50 result. The Steelers led 12-3 in the first quarter (though with two notable failed two-point conversions that would haunt them the whole game). But perhaps the most overlooked play was Ben Roethlisberger's 15-yard TD pass to Antonio Brown after faking the spike -- it was applauded by most, but gave the Cowboys too much time to rally (and they did). However, while everyone is praising Dak Prescottand Ezekiel Elliott (for good reason), what I saw was a Dallas defense that kept giving up the lead and could be a concern against better competition come playoff time.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas over Pittsburgh by 14 points.
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 10 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leads to them crying "bad beat!" Of course, there also are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 10 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
[h=2]Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)[/h]
The Panthers jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked to be in total control for the second straight week (last week, they gave up a garbage-time TD to the Rams to only push 13-10 as 3-point favorites). Well, this Sunday, the Panthers allowed the Chiefs to get back in the game without a single offensive touchdown as Eric Berry's 42-yard interception return turned the game around with 10:32 to play. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Alex Smith hit Travis Kelce for the 2-point conversion to make the score 17-14 and it looked like the Panthers would have another bad push, but instead the offense punted twice and the Chiefs tied it 17-17 and then Kelvin Benjamin was stripped by Marcus Peters to set up the game-winning field goal. The Chiefs were outplayed most of the game, but they know how to pull out these close games. The Panthers have lost that ability.</offer>
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Kansas City over Carolina by six points.
This would normally be categorized as a right-side winner for the Broncos as they were leading most of the game and only trailed by more than the spread once at 17-10; and especially considering that they still would have covered as 3-point road underdogs if Will Lutz had made the go-ahead PAT for a 24-23 Saints win. However, despite the extra point being moved back and no longer automatic, we're still used to a team that rallies to tie the score being able to kick the extra point to go ahead with a minute left. So, when Justin Simmons leaped over the line and blocked the kick and Will Parks ran it back 84 yards for the winning 2-point defensive conversion (and there was also controversy over whether or not Parks stepped out of bounds) -- well, that's still a bad beat, at least for New Orleans money-line bettors. The Broncos defense stepped up time and time again.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New Orleans over Denver by seven points.
[h=2]Easy covers (clearly right sides)[/h]
The Browns actually took a 7-3 lead after a 75-yard drive in the second quarter and still led 7-6 at halftime, but the Ravens pulled away in the second half and coasted to victory. Cleveland coach Hue Jackson made the odd decision of benching Cody Kessler, even though he put the Browns in the lead, and the offense fell apart behind Josh McCown. I know it was against the Cleveland offense, but the Baltimore defense continues to look strong. It will get a big test next week on the road against the Cowboys.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Baltimore over Cleveland by 12 points.
The Buccaneers never trailed after closing as 3-point home underdogs (I'm still trying to figure out how the Bears were favored), and Chicago's only touchdown came on a Hail Mary at the end of the first half that Cameron Meredith caught on a deflection. The Bears' scripted offense wasn't anywhere near as effective and gave away a TD on Jay Cutler's pick-six to Chris Conte to start the scoring. The Bucs still lack a running game but Jameis Winston showed he can still light up the scoreboard against porous defenses.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tampa Bay over Chicago by 12 points.
The Titans jumped all over the Packers 21-0 in the first quarter and answered nearly every Green Bay score with another of their own. Marcus Mariota has never looked better in his pro career and DeMarco Murray continued to support him in the running game (and adding a TD pass of his own for good measure). Aaron Rodgers had some good moments but threw two interceptions, and the Packers' defense just didn't have any answers.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee over Green Bay by 12 points.
The Texans never trailed after closing as 3-point road underdogs (like the Chicago-Tampa Bay game, I still don't understand why the Jaguars were favored). Kareem Jackson intercepted Blake Bortles and returned it 42 yards for the opening TD. Even though the Jaguars responded with a TD drive, the Texans came right back with a TD drive of their own and the outcome never seemed in doubt. Lamar Miller had a decent game with 83 rushing yards and Brock Osweiler had two TD passes, but the Houston offense doesn't scare anyone as Osweiler only threw for 99 yards on 27 passes (less than 4 yards per attempt). The good news is the Texans finally won on the road (though take that with a grain of salt as it was at Jacksonville).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Houston over Jacksonville by 10 points.
This was close to a 50/50 result (certainly closer than the Massey-Peabody score indicates) as the Chargers jumped out to a 10-0 lead and were driving for the winning score with the game tied 24-24 (though it was just as likely to be a non-covering FG instead of a spread-covering TD) before Kiko Alonso picked off Philip Rivers and returned it 60 yards for the Dolphins' 31-24 upset. Jay Ajayi continues to set the tone for Miami's offense, though they also got two TDs from his backup, Damien Williams.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Miami over San Diego by 21 points.
The Cardinals jumped out to a 14-0 lead (exactly the closing spread) with two David Johnson TDs, but never got over the spread. In fact, the 49ers rallied all the way back to tie the game 20-20 on Colin Kaepernick's 4-yard TD run with 1:55 to play, but Arizona survived with a Chandler Catanzaro FG as time expired. The Cardinals gained over 400 yards but turned the ball over four times to keep the 49ers in the game; that's a concern as they're trying to get back in the playoff hunt.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Francisco over Arizona by seven points.
A lot of people would put this in the 50-50 category since there were seven lead changes, but the Seahawks never trailed by more than the 7.5-point spread and still would have covered if the Patriots had scored late to force overtime. Both teams showed why they're at the top of their respective leagues (Cowboys notwithstanding), and the Patriots will recover from this loss. Seattle got a boost from running back C.J. Prosise, giving them a running game and also giving Russell Wilson another option in the passing game.
[h=2]50-50 ATS results[/h]
This was a strange game. The Redskins jumped out to a 14-0 lead but the Vikings rallied back and took a 20-14 halftime lead on a 3-yard TD pass from Sam Bradford to Adam Thielen as time expired at the end of the second quarter. However, a key play was Blair Walsh missing another extra point. That allowed the Redskins to tie the game with two FGs in the third quarter and then take a 23-20 lead in the fourth (to sit right on the 3-point spread) before going up 6 on a late Dustin Hopkins FG after a Bradford INT when it looked like the Vikings might tie the game or regain the lead. The Minnesota D kept the Vikings in the game, but the offense couldn't take advantage.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington over Minnesota by three points.
The Eagles were mostly the right side (and the Massey-Peabody numbers seems to agree), but it wasn't until the final score that the Eagles led by more than a TD above the spread. The Falcons stayed within 7-6 at halftime and 10-9 at the end of the third quarter, and even took a 15-13 lead on Taylor Gabriel's 76-yard TD pass from Matt Ryan. Julio Jones also dropped an easy pass that would have extended another drive. But give credit to the return of the Eagles defense in holding down the league's No. 1 offense and Ryan Mathews finally stepped up for the offense with two TDs and a two-point conversion.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Philadelphia over Atlanta by 13 points.
This was an ugly game, as the score indicates. The over/under of 38.5 was the lowest of the weekend and the under was never in doubt. The Jets took a 6-3 lead in the second quarter on Bryce Petty's first pro TD pass (on a hook-and-ladder play), but Nick Folkmissed the PAT. The Rams only got three FGs from Greg Zuerlien as the biggest lead of the whole game was three points. The defenses were the best units on the field at all times, though that's not saying much when it's Case Keenum vs. Bryce Petty.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Los Angeles over N.Y. Jets by three points.
This was an exciting game with seven lead changes and definitely a 50-50 result. The Steelers led 12-3 in the first quarter (though with two notable failed two-point conversions that would haunt them the whole game). But perhaps the most overlooked play was Ben Roethlisberger's 15-yard TD pass to Antonio Brown after faking the spike -- it was applauded by most, but gave the Cowboys too much time to rally (and they did). However, while everyone is praising Dak Prescottand Ezekiel Elliott (for good reason), what I saw was a Dallas defense that kept giving up the lead and could be a concern against better competition come playoff time.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas over Pittsburgh by 14 points.
