[h=1]Early betting look for Week 12: Sell Penn State[/h]Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Nos. 2, 3 and 4 teams all lost for the first time since 1985. What does that mean for the national title chances of each of these formerly unbeaten heavyweights? We'll see where the oddsmakers have opened this week's market after the shakeup.
We'll also buy and sell a pair of Big Ten teams, look at the point spread lesson that West Virginia's success is reinforcing, explain how to find the right side in the LSU-Florida game and highlight the coach who wins all the toss-up games.
It's all here in our Week 12 early betting lookahead for college football:
[h=2]Portfolio checkup[/h][h=3]Buy[/h]
Michigan State Spartans
Remaining games: Ohio State, at Penn State
It was against Rutgers, but the emphatic 49-0 win ending to Sparty's seven-game losing streak came with some promising signs for the final two weeks of the season. Mark Dantonio is playing more freshmen than at any other time in his tenure. This is still a talented roster, and the youth movement helps ensure that this bunch hasn't checked out on the season.
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<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Michigan State was competitive throughout the losing streak and is still playing hard, albeit less skillfully than in years past. Both the Spartans' covers prior to this week have been taking points, and they'll be getting a bundle the next two weeks. Michigan State has delivered outright wins its last three underdog turns against Ohio State and dominated recent games with Penn State. We'll be getting long prices with a team that is improving, hasn't quit, finally has some good vibes, has a good track record with scheme and game plan against both upcoming opponents and isn't just outclassed, athlete-for-athlete, by either of them.
[h=3]Sell[/h]
Penn State Nittany Lions
Remaining games: at Rutgers, Michigan State
Two factors work heavily against Penn State the next two weeks. First is the unprecedented success the Nittany Lions have had and what it means for James Franklin's crew. If the favorites merely have the best record among the three division co-leaders in the six combined remaining games, then Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh will watch from home as Franklin leads Penn State onto the field in Indianapolis as improbable Big Ten East champs. That's a lot of pressure on the Lions and a lot of noise surrounding them, and they'll be tasked with laying heavy weight while concentrating mainly on mere survival.
The other issue is decaying team health. The Lions are not that deep just yet and a long season is gradually wearing this team down. The offensive line, already a weakness, is of particular concern. Rutgers' defensive line is the strength of the team, and Michigan State's is physically challenging as well.
[h=2]Game of interest, Week 12[/h]
Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-14)
There was plenty of vitriol on both sides when this game was postponed, but in the end the hard feelings may be mostly one-sided. After all, LSU got what it wanted: a Week 12 home game. Florida, meanwhile, is a win away from a return trip to Atlanta, but must now do it on the road.
LSU just experienced both the best week of preparation and the best game of the Ed Orgeron era. The Tigers were bent on proving that this year's team could bring a different mindset into the post-Alabama world than the past two editions, both of which followed losses to Bama with losses to Arkansas. Point proven in Fayetteville, 38-10, but now what? With mission accomplished, LSU finds itself in that familiar wasteland of success: having cleared bowl eligibility but fallen short of a conference championship.
On deck is a Florida team recently seen rushing for 12 yards against a Razorbacks squad that just surrendered 390 to the Tigers. LSU can't help but notice the seven-touchdown differential between the Tigers' and Gators' performances against Arkansas and think it's in for something less than the biggest test of the year. And if the Tigers can't summon any reason to make this more than just another game, they'll be in trouble, because it certainly isn't just another game to Florida.
Jim McElwain is at his finest playing possum, just as he did heading into Alabama last year and Tennessee this year. That's what we'll be looking for in his three public appearances this week. If we get the vibe we're expecting from the coach, plus radio silence on trash talking from the players, it could be time to send it in on the Gators, because when Mac is parading for the cameras is when his team is preparing most purposefully behind closed doors.
[h=2]Movers and Shakers[/h]Alabama is an odds-on favorite for the first time all year. Of the Week 11 losers, Clemson took the smallest plunge, maybe in part because the Tigers have the clearest path to their conference championship. But the striking takeaway from the numbers below is the rock-solid faith the oddsmakers have in the committee's willingness to hand out national title invitations to teams that failed to win their leagues. Neither Louisville nor Ohio State even controls its conference race, yet those teams are easily the shortest-priced on the board besides Alabama.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
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</aside>Once-beaten West Virginia is down to 50-1, alongside entrants Washington State and Penn State (both with 8-2 records). Oklahoma State is next at 60-1, followed by the trio of Utah, Florida and Colorado at 80-1. And the Westgate is offering 2,000-1 on Western Michigan, now the only unbeaten team besides Alabama.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]West Virginia is the latest example of why it's not always enough to know something almost nobody else knows. The Mountaineers are one of the season's surprise teams, now sitting at 8-1 and ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll. If you had this pegged, congratulations: You're one of probably very few to see this performance coming. West Virginia is just 4-5 against the spread.
One of the major surprise storylines of 2014 was the two Mississippi teams rising to prominence and occupying two of the top four spots in the first playoff rankings. But those teams were a mere 12-12 ATS. Under third-year coach Art Briles, Baylor broke out in 2010 behind quarterback Robert Griffin III, earning a bowl berth for the first time in 16 seasons. That Cinderella story was all pumpkin for Bears backers, who left the year with a 5-8 record. Likewise for 12-0 Cincinnati in 2009, which finished the season in the Sugar Bowl but with a 5-7 ATS mark.
West Virginia is this year's reminder that even with the right read, you usually still have to pick your spots successfully, not just bet blindly every week.
Want to fade a reeling Texas A&M team that has gone from playoff committee darling to three-loss also-ran in a blink, but not sure if a 5-5 UTSA squad is a worthy hammer? One edge that could tip the scales in the favor of Texas San Antonio is head coach Frank Wilson's familiarity with Aggies defensive coordinator John Chavis. The two served together for five years on Les Miles' LSU staff. Wilson's team has been lighting up the scoreboard the past month, and a good read on what to expect from the opposing defense could help the Roadrunners land enough punches to stay inside a big number (currently -27 at the Wynn).
It's said that good coaches win the close games, but they also win the ones that are supposed to be close. Brian Kelly's first three years at Notre Dame didn't produce any competitively priced (+3 to -3) home games, but in seven such games since then he has delivered the goods five times. And Kelly was 4-0-1 ATS in those spots during his time at Cincinnati and Central Michigan. Notre Dame's meeting with Virginia Tech this week gives Kelly a chance to run his impressive career record in toss-ups to 10-2-1 against the number.
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Nos. 2, 3 and 4 teams all lost for the first time since 1985. What does that mean for the national title chances of each of these formerly unbeaten heavyweights? We'll see where the oddsmakers have opened this week's market after the shakeup.
We'll also buy and sell a pair of Big Ten teams, look at the point spread lesson that West Virginia's success is reinforcing, explain how to find the right side in the LSU-Florida game and highlight the coach who wins all the toss-up games.
It's all here in our Week 12 early betting lookahead for college football:
[h=2]Portfolio checkup[/h][h=3]Buy[/h]
Remaining games: Ohio State, at Penn State
It was against Rutgers, but the emphatic 49-0 win ending to Sparty's seven-game losing streak came with some promising signs for the final two weeks of the season. Mark Dantonio is playing more freshmen than at any other time in his tenure. This is still a talented roster, and the youth movement helps ensure that this bunch hasn't checked out on the season.
<alsosee style="box-sizing: border-box;"></alsosee>
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Michigan State was competitive throughout the losing streak and is still playing hard, albeit less skillfully than in years past. Both the Spartans' covers prior to this week have been taking points, and they'll be getting a bundle the next two weeks. Michigan State has delivered outright wins its last three underdog turns against Ohio State and dominated recent games with Penn State. We'll be getting long prices with a team that is improving, hasn't quit, finally has some good vibes, has a good track record with scheme and game plan against both upcoming opponents and isn't just outclassed, athlete-for-athlete, by either of them.
[h=3]Sell[/h]
Remaining games: at Rutgers, Michigan State
Two factors work heavily against Penn State the next two weeks. First is the unprecedented success the Nittany Lions have had and what it means for James Franklin's crew. If the favorites merely have the best record among the three division co-leaders in the six combined remaining games, then Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh will watch from home as Franklin leads Penn State onto the field in Indianapolis as improbable Big Ten East champs. That's a lot of pressure on the Lions and a lot of noise surrounding them, and they'll be tasked with laying heavy weight while concentrating mainly on mere survival.
The other issue is decaying team health. The Lions are not that deep just yet and a long season is gradually wearing this team down. The offensive line, already a weakness, is of particular concern. Rutgers' defensive line is the strength of the team, and Michigan State's is physically challenging as well.
[h=2]Game of interest, Week 12[/h]
Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-14)
There was plenty of vitriol on both sides when this game was postponed, but in the end the hard feelings may be mostly one-sided. After all, LSU got what it wanted: a Week 12 home game. Florida, meanwhile, is a win away from a return trip to Atlanta, but must now do it on the road.
LSU just experienced both the best week of preparation and the best game of the Ed Orgeron era. The Tigers were bent on proving that this year's team could bring a different mindset into the post-Alabama world than the past two editions, both of which followed losses to Bama with losses to Arkansas. Point proven in Fayetteville, 38-10, but now what? With mission accomplished, LSU finds itself in that familiar wasteland of success: having cleared bowl eligibility but fallen short of a conference championship.
On deck is a Florida team recently seen rushing for 12 yards against a Razorbacks squad that just surrendered 390 to the Tigers. LSU can't help but notice the seven-touchdown differential between the Tigers' and Gators' performances against Arkansas and think it's in for something less than the biggest test of the year. And if the Tigers can't summon any reason to make this more than just another game, they'll be in trouble, because it certainly isn't just another game to Florida.
Jim McElwain is at his finest playing possum, just as he did heading into Alabama last year and Tennessee this year. That's what we'll be looking for in his three public appearances this week. If we get the vibe we're expecting from the coach, plus radio silence on trash talking from the players, it could be time to send it in on the Gators, because when Mac is parading for the cameras is when his team is preparing most purposefully behind closed doors.
[h=2]Movers and Shakers[/h]Alabama is an odds-on favorite for the first time all year. Of the Week 11 losers, Clemson took the smallest plunge, maybe in part because the Tigers have the clearest path to their conference championship. But the striking takeaway from the numbers below is the rock-solid faith the oddsmakers have in the committee's willingness to hand out national title invitations to teams that failed to win their leagues. Neither Louisville nor Ohio State even controls its conference race, yet those teams are easily the shortest-priced on the board besides Alabama.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| TEAM | LAST WEEK | CURRENT |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | EVEN | 4-5 |
| Ohio State | 7-2 | 2-1 |
| Louisville | 15-1 | 6-1 |
| Clemson | 7-1 | 12-1 |
| Michigan | 5-1 | 15-1 |
| Wisconsin | 20-1 | 15-1 |
| Washington | 6-1 | 20-1 |
| Oklahoma | 40-1 | 20-1 |
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</aside>Once-beaten West Virginia is down to 50-1, alongside entrants Washington State and Penn State (both with 8-2 records). Oklahoma State is next at 60-1, followed by the trio of Utah, Florida and Colorado at 80-1. And the Westgate is offering 2,000-1 on Western Michigan, now the only unbeaten team besides Alabama.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]West Virginia is the latest example of why it's not always enough to know something almost nobody else knows. The Mountaineers are one of the season's surprise teams, now sitting at 8-1 and ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll. If you had this pegged, congratulations: You're one of probably very few to see this performance coming. West Virginia is just 4-5 against the spread.
One of the major surprise storylines of 2014 was the two Mississippi teams rising to prominence and occupying two of the top four spots in the first playoff rankings. But those teams were a mere 12-12 ATS. Under third-year coach Art Briles, Baylor broke out in 2010 behind quarterback Robert Griffin III, earning a bowl berth for the first time in 16 seasons. That Cinderella story was all pumpkin for Bears backers, who left the year with a 5-8 record. Likewise for 12-0 Cincinnati in 2009, which finished the season in the Sugar Bowl but with a 5-7 ATS mark.
West Virginia is this year's reminder that even with the right read, you usually still have to pick your spots successfully, not just bet blindly every week.
Want to fade a reeling Texas A&M team that has gone from playoff committee darling to three-loss also-ran in a blink, but not sure if a 5-5 UTSA squad is a worthy hammer? One edge that could tip the scales in the favor of Texas San Antonio is head coach Frank Wilson's familiarity with Aggies defensive coordinator John Chavis. The two served together for five years on Les Miles' LSU staff. Wilson's team has been lighting up the scoreboard the past month, and a good read on what to expect from the opposing defense could help the Roadrunners land enough punches to stay inside a big number (currently -27 at the Wynn).
It's said that good coaches win the close games, but they also win the ones that are supposed to be close. Brian Kelly's first three years at Notre Dame didn't produce any competitively priced (+3 to -3) home games, but in seven such games since then he has delivered the goods five times. And Kelly was 4-0-1 ATS in those spots during his time at Cincinnati and Central Michigan. Notre Dame's meeting with Virginia Tech this week gives Kelly a chance to run his impressive career record in toss-ups to 10-2-1 against the number.
