[h=1]Phil Steele's best Week 12 college football bets[/h]Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
ach week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS). This year the straight-up record is 61-30 (67 percent), but the ATS record is just 39-49-2 (44 percent).
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]Oregon Ducks at No. 11 Utah Utes (-14)[/h]Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
Last year, Utah traveled to Oregon as a double-digit dog and not only upset the Ducks, they thrashed them, leading 62-13 before allowing a late, 96-yard garbage time touchdown drive. Utah is an under-the-radar team that doesn't get a lot of mention nationally. They win with a run game, defense and special teams. This is Utah's home finale and they have talent, attitude, and altitude edges. Utah is competing for the Pac-12 title and since Joe Williams came out of "retirement," he's rushed for 179, 332, 172, and 181 yards in four games. They will not take the Ducks lightly, as they had given up 51 and 44 points the previous two meetings when Marcus Mariota was the quarterback.
Utah has a legitimate top-25 defense, led by one of the nation's best defensive lines (34 sacks). Oregon has one of the nation's weakest defenses. In Pac-12 play, they're allowing teams to gain 154 yards more than their season average, allowing 274 (6.2 average) rushing yards per game and 318 (70 percent) passing yards per game. If you think revenge is an issue, remember Oregon just played their home finale to rival Stanford and trailed 52-13 after three quarters before getting a couple of touchdowns against backups.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 49, Oregon 27
[h=2]Duke Blue Devils (+7.5) at Pittsburgh Panthers[/h]Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, ACC Network
David Cutcliffe had a losing record in his first five years, but did benefit from bowl practices in the fifth season, and finally got his team to the next level. Duke is 31-19 over the last four seasons. As a dog, they're 13-5 against the spread, covering five straight, including outright upsets this year of Notre Dame and North Carolina. Shaun Wilson has emerged as the featured back, averaging 97 rushing yards per game the last three weeks, while Daniel Jones has 267 rushing and 693 passing yards in that span. Jones opened the year with a 6-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but it's 6-1 since and should improve against a Pitt unit that ranks No. 110 in my pass \-defense rankings, allowing a 21-7 ratio.
Duke opened the season averaging just 18.6 points per game vs. FBS foes, but has improved to 28 points per game during their last three contests. Duke's defense is allowing ACC opponents 40 yards above their season average, but Pitt's is yielding 71 yards more. Pitt is coming off their huge upset win over No. 2 Clemson. They'll be getting a lot of pats on the back this week and might find it hard to focus on a 4-6 team. Pitt has just one win by more than 3 points this year over a Power 5 school and the dog is 3-0 ATS in this series.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Pitt 37, Duke 34
[h=2]No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (-3) at No. 16 West Virginia Mountaineers[/h]Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
I have been impressed with West Virginia this year. That said, this is my third year writing for ESPN Insider, and this is the third time I'm picking Oklahoma in this matchup. This is the lowest spread to cover. The week after Oklahoma lost to Ohio State, I said on my radio shows that I fully expected them to finish 10-2 and win the Big 12.
They got Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon back last week and put up 566 yards against a Baylor defense that had been allowing less than 400 yards per game. West Virginia was outgained by Texas by 153 yards last week, but the Longhorns had some costly mistakes in the red zone. Oklahoma has faced the tougher schedule and grabs the road win here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 35, West Virginia 28
[h=2]Indiana Hoosiers (+23.5) at No. 3 Michigan Wolverines[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Michigan is coming off a loss and playing in its home finale, but I will side with the large dog. The Wolverines don't need style points. If they win their last three -- including next week's contest at Ohio State, the key game of their season -- they're in. However, Indiana has proven they can play with the big boys.
Last year, the Hoosiers had the ball deep in Ohio State territory, down seven at the end. Michigan needed a touchdown with two seconds left to force overtime and beat them. They only lost to top-10 Iowa by eight. This year the Hoosiers lost to No. 2 Ohio State by 21, No. 10 Nebraska by 5 and last week led No. 12 Penn State 31-28 in the fourth quarter. Penn State got a 9-yard fumble return touchdown with 29 seconds left for a misleading final score.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Michigan 35, Indiana 17
[h=2]No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs (-9.5) at Wyoming Cowboys[/h]Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network
San Diego State continues to dominate Mountain West play. Last year, the Aztecs were 7-1 ATS in the conference's regular season, with their lone non-cover by a half point. Their defense held foes to an average of 240 yards and 13 points per game. This year they're 5-1 ATS and have outgained conference foes by 222 yards per game, winning by an average score of 38-7.
They handled Wyoming last year, 38-3, and this year their defense is allowing just 230 yards per game in conference play. Wyoming is coming off a triple-overtime loss. The Cowboys' earlier upsets of Boise State and Air Force will ensure the Aztecs bring their "A" game. Wyoming's defense allows 475 yards per game in conference play and is a net minus-2 yards per game in league play. I will continue to back the Aztecs. Donnel Pumphrey will get closer to breaking the FBS all time rushing record.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 38, Wyoming 20
[h=2]No. 20 USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins (+13.5)[/h]Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
USC is playing as good as almost any team in the country right now and had a 21-13 first-down edge at Washington last week. USC played to an average game grade of 88.2 during their first three games, when they inserted Sam Darnold at quarterback. Since then, during their last five results, the Trojans have played to an average of 105.8. Alabama is No. 1 in that category at 111.2 for the season.
UCLA lost quarterback Josh Rosen and is just 4-6 this season. Still, the Bruins haven't lost a game by more than 10 points. Their defense has held foes to 72 yards below their season average, 20th-best in the country. The situation favors UCLA as they are in their home finale and catching USC off their "A-plus" effort on the road, and playing away from home again. Rivalry dogs have done great in recent years, and this is a legitimate top-10 rivalry game.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: USC 26, UCLA 20
[h=2]Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 4 Washington Huskies (-27)[/h]Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, Fox
The Huskies got knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten last week and have a huge Apple Cup game on deck. Arizona State comes in fresh off a bye. Two of Washington's best defensive players, Joe Mathis and Azeem Victor, were out by the first quarter last week. While those factors favor the Sun Devils, there are powerful things lined up with the Huskies.
Arizona State is poor on the Pac-12 road, being outgained by 289 yards per game and suffering three blowout losses. Excluding USC, Washington had beaten Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State at home by an average of 37 points per game, outgaining them by an average of 226 yards in the process. When Chris Petersen had a juggernaut at Boise State, they were 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss, winning by an average of 33 points per game. Arizona State's pass defense is allowing 391 yards per game (66 percent completions) in Pac-12 play so look for Jake Browning to have a nice bounce-back effort.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 51, Arizona State 20
[h=2]Kansas State Wildcats(-2.5) at Baylor Bears[/h]Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN2
Bill Snyder is one of the best head coaches in the business, and given extra time to prepare with a bye week, he is a perfect 8-0 ATS. Baylor has a depth-shy team and now has no Big 12 or playoff hopes to hang on and coaches sending out resumes, as their season has gone downhill. Last week they lost quarterback Seth Russell, so true freshman Zach Smith will be taking on the confusing Wildcats defense.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Kansas State 31, Baylor 21
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
ach week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS). This year the straight-up record is 61-30 (67 percent), but the ATS record is just 39-49-2 (44 percent).
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]Oregon Ducks at No. 11 Utah Utes (-14)[/h]Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
Last year, Utah traveled to Oregon as a double-digit dog and not only upset the Ducks, they thrashed them, leading 62-13 before allowing a late, 96-yard garbage time touchdown drive. Utah is an under-the-radar team that doesn't get a lot of mention nationally. They win with a run game, defense and special teams. This is Utah's home finale and they have talent, attitude, and altitude edges. Utah is competing for the Pac-12 title and since Joe Williams came out of "retirement," he's rushed for 179, 332, 172, and 181 yards in four games. They will not take the Ducks lightly, as they had given up 51 and 44 points the previous two meetings when Marcus Mariota was the quarterback.
Utah has a legitimate top-25 defense, led by one of the nation's best defensive lines (34 sacks). Oregon has one of the nation's weakest defenses. In Pac-12 play, they're allowing teams to gain 154 yards more than their season average, allowing 274 (6.2 average) rushing yards per game and 318 (70 percent) passing yards per game. If you think revenge is an issue, remember Oregon just played their home finale to rival Stanford and trailed 52-13 after three quarters before getting a couple of touchdowns against backups.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 49, Oregon 27
[h=2]Duke Blue Devils (+7.5) at Pittsburgh Panthers[/h]Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, ACC Network
David Cutcliffe had a losing record in his first five years, but did benefit from bowl practices in the fifth season, and finally got his team to the next level. Duke is 31-19 over the last four seasons. As a dog, they're 13-5 against the spread, covering five straight, including outright upsets this year of Notre Dame and North Carolina. Shaun Wilson has emerged as the featured back, averaging 97 rushing yards per game the last three weeks, while Daniel Jones has 267 rushing and 693 passing yards in that span. Jones opened the year with a 6-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but it's 6-1 since and should improve against a Pitt unit that ranks No. 110 in my pass \-defense rankings, allowing a 21-7 ratio.
Duke opened the season averaging just 18.6 points per game vs. FBS foes, but has improved to 28 points per game during their last three contests. Duke's defense is allowing ACC opponents 40 yards above their season average, but Pitt's is yielding 71 yards more. Pitt is coming off their huge upset win over No. 2 Clemson. They'll be getting a lot of pats on the back this week and might find it hard to focus on a 4-6 team. Pitt has just one win by more than 3 points this year over a Power 5 school and the dog is 3-0 ATS in this series.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Pitt 37, Duke 34
[h=2]No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (-3) at No. 16 West Virginia Mountaineers[/h]Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
I have been impressed with West Virginia this year. That said, this is my third year writing for ESPN Insider, and this is the third time I'm picking Oklahoma in this matchup. This is the lowest spread to cover. The week after Oklahoma lost to Ohio State, I said on my radio shows that I fully expected them to finish 10-2 and win the Big 12.
They got Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon back last week and put up 566 yards against a Baylor defense that had been allowing less than 400 yards per game. West Virginia was outgained by Texas by 153 yards last week, but the Longhorns had some costly mistakes in the red zone. Oklahoma has faced the tougher schedule and grabs the road win here.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 35, West Virginia 28
[h=2]Indiana Hoosiers (+23.5) at No. 3 Michigan Wolverines[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Michigan is coming off a loss and playing in its home finale, but I will side with the large dog. The Wolverines don't need style points. If they win their last three -- including next week's contest at Ohio State, the key game of their season -- they're in. However, Indiana has proven they can play with the big boys.
Last year, the Hoosiers had the ball deep in Ohio State territory, down seven at the end. Michigan needed a touchdown with two seconds left to force overtime and beat them. They only lost to top-10 Iowa by eight. This year the Hoosiers lost to No. 2 Ohio State by 21, No. 10 Nebraska by 5 and last week led No. 12 Penn State 31-28 in the fourth quarter. Penn State got a 9-yard fumble return touchdown with 29 seconds left for a misleading final score.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Michigan 35, Indiana 17
[h=2]No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs (-9.5) at Wyoming Cowboys[/h]Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network
San Diego State continues to dominate Mountain West play. Last year, the Aztecs were 7-1 ATS in the conference's regular season, with their lone non-cover by a half point. Their defense held foes to an average of 240 yards and 13 points per game. This year they're 5-1 ATS and have outgained conference foes by 222 yards per game, winning by an average score of 38-7.
They handled Wyoming last year, 38-3, and this year their defense is allowing just 230 yards per game in conference play. Wyoming is coming off a triple-overtime loss. The Cowboys' earlier upsets of Boise State and Air Force will ensure the Aztecs bring their "A" game. Wyoming's defense allows 475 yards per game in conference play and is a net minus-2 yards per game in league play. I will continue to back the Aztecs. Donnel Pumphrey will get closer to breaking the FBS all time rushing record.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 38, Wyoming 20
[h=2]No. 20 USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins (+13.5)[/h]Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
USC is playing as good as almost any team in the country right now and had a 21-13 first-down edge at Washington last week. USC played to an average game grade of 88.2 during their first three games, when they inserted Sam Darnold at quarterback. Since then, during their last five results, the Trojans have played to an average of 105.8. Alabama is No. 1 in that category at 111.2 for the season.
UCLA lost quarterback Josh Rosen and is just 4-6 this season. Still, the Bruins haven't lost a game by more than 10 points. Their defense has held foes to 72 yards below their season average, 20th-best in the country. The situation favors UCLA as they are in their home finale and catching USC off their "A-plus" effort on the road, and playing away from home again. Rivalry dogs have done great in recent years, and this is a legitimate top-10 rivalry game.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: USC 26, UCLA 20
[h=2]Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 4 Washington Huskies (-27)[/h]Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, Fox
The Huskies got knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten last week and have a huge Apple Cup game on deck. Arizona State comes in fresh off a bye. Two of Washington's best defensive players, Joe Mathis and Azeem Victor, were out by the first quarter last week. While those factors favor the Sun Devils, there are powerful things lined up with the Huskies.
Arizona State is poor on the Pac-12 road, being outgained by 289 yards per game and suffering three blowout losses. Excluding USC, Washington had beaten Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State at home by an average of 37 points per game, outgaining them by an average of 226 yards in the process. When Chris Petersen had a juggernaut at Boise State, they were 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss, winning by an average of 33 points per game. Arizona State's pass defense is allowing 391 yards per game (66 percent completions) in Pac-12 play so look for Jake Browning to have a nice bounce-back effort.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 51, Arizona State 20
[h=2]Kansas State Wildcats(-2.5) at Baylor Bears[/h]Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN2
Bill Snyder is one of the best head coaches in the business, and given extra time to prepare with a bye week, he is a perfect 8-0 ATS. Baylor has a depth-shy team and now has no Big 12 or playoff hopes to hang on and coaches sending out resumes, as their season has gone downhill. Last week they lost quarterback Seth Russell, so true freshman Zach Smith will be taking on the confusing Wildcats defense.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Kansas State 31, Baylor 21
