[h=1]How to bet Green Bay-Washington[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 11 games, including the Green Bay-Washington Sunday night matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins[/h]Spread: Opened Washington -3; now Washington -3 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 50; now 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent Green Bay
Public perception: The public is on the Packers, as they're one of the most public teams in the league, including at other bet-tracking sites. Joe Public finds it hard to resist getting Aaron Rodgers plus points.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are more split on this game as they've taken Green Bay (especially when +3 -110), but plenty of others are grabbing the -2.5 with Washington.
Dave Tuley's take: The Redskins are the hotter team with their spread-covering push against the Bengals in London and last week's win over the Vikings while the Packers have lost three straight with non-covers against the Colts and Titans. Therefore, I'm not as confident in the Packers coming through as road underdogs. I do believe Rodgers will keep them in the game by airing it out and Kirk Cousins should do the same. The Redskins are 7-2 with the over, including their last two covers, while the Packers are 5-4 with the over as their defense has let them down during their three-game losing streak. The over looks like the better bet.
The pick: Over 49* (lean to Packers +3, but Redskins at -2.5)
Rufus Peabody:
In a rematch of last season's wild-card game, the Redskins are favored as the Packers have struggled offensively and have been hurt by injuries on defense. Don't let the line fool you, though. The Redskins are still an inferior team to the Packers. As good as the Redskins' offense has been, their defense has been just as bad. They've allowed a 52.3 percent play-success rate to their opponents, third-worst in the NFL, and have only forced 25 punts all year, worst in football. I like the Packers at +3, and they are a lean at +2.5 (+100).
Massey-Peabody Line: Washington -0.8, Total: 51.5
Pick: Green Bay +3, Lean Over 49
Erin Rynning:
The Packers' injuries and inexperience in the secondary were largely hidden in the early season with a schedule of weaker passing teams. However, with games against Falcons and Colts the unit was exploited, and everything came crashing down last week against the Titans. The Packers now rank 30th in the NFL allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Redskins' pass game will be poised to pounce with a savvy coordinator in Sean McVay and capable weapons.
Meanwhile, the Packers' offense is quietly coming alive with their horrendous defense overshadowing progress. The Washington defense holds the 23rd position in yards per play allowed while facing a weaker slate of offenses of late. The weather forecast is highly questionable with blustery winds a possibility, keeping the selection a lean to the over.
Play: Lean to Over 49
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 27, Green Bay 23
The pick: Washington -3 and Over 49
John Parolin's prop bet picks:
65.5 receiving yards by Jordan Reed (O/U -110)
When healthy, Jordan Reed is the unquestioned focal point of the Redskins' offense. Even missing two games this season, Reed is still tied for the team lead with 44 receptions and has a team-high 62 targets. He's also facing a Packers defense that just allowed Delanie Walker 124 yards on nine receptions. In fact, the Packers have allowed 276 receiving yards to tight ends in the last three weeks without Clay Matthews -- only the Vikings have allowed more (300).
The Packers have allowed 9.1 yards per target to tight ends this season despite facing a slate of opponents that don't feature the tight end frequently. Aside from the Titans (and Walker's 124-yard performance), the Packers have faced two tight ends ranked in the top 10 in receiving yards this year. Green Bay faced Jason Witten (team-high eight targets against the Packers) and Zach Miller (with Matt Barkley and Brian Hoyer at quarterback). Neither of those players occupy the offensive role Reed does (or have his athleticism). At 9.1 yards per target, Reed needs eight targets to hit 66 yards. That should be feasible.
The play: Over
80.5 receiving yards by Jordy Nelson (O/U -110)
For a team that committed the most guaranteed money ever to a cornerback, there's been a surprising amount of opportunity for top wide receivers against the Redskins. Top-option wideouts Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Odell Beckham Jr., Dez Bryant, Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones have all topped 90 yards this season against Washington's defense, and Nelson's name generally belongs with those wide receivers.
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The state of the Packers' offense brings the real question mark, with 2016 representing one of the toughest seasons of Rodgers' career. Rodgers' deep ball has declined every year since he connected on 51 percent of attempts in 2013. That mark is down to 26 percent, with Rodgers posting less than half of his yards per attempt totals on throws at least 20 yards downfield. This is prime Nelson territory -- but the connection has already shown signs of getting back to normal. Nelson has at least 94 receiving yards in three straight games and 40 total targets in that span. Rodgers' struggles won't be drastic enough to preclude Nelson from putting up numbers.
The play: Over
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 11 games, including the Green Bay-Washington Sunday night matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
Total: Opened 50; now 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent Green Bay
Public perception: The public is on the Packers, as they're one of the most public teams in the league, including at other bet-tracking sites. Joe Public finds it hard to resist getting Aaron Rodgers plus points.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are more split on this game as they've taken Green Bay (especially when +3 -110), but plenty of others are grabbing the -2.5 with Washington.
Dave Tuley's take: The Redskins are the hotter team with their spread-covering push against the Bengals in London and last week's win over the Vikings while the Packers have lost three straight with non-covers against the Colts and Titans. Therefore, I'm not as confident in the Packers coming through as road underdogs. I do believe Rodgers will keep them in the game by airing it out and Kirk Cousins should do the same. The Redskins are 7-2 with the over, including their last two covers, while the Packers are 5-4 with the over as their defense has let them down during their three-game losing streak. The over looks like the better bet.
The pick: Over 49* (lean to Packers +3, but Redskins at -2.5)
Rufus Peabody:
In a rematch of last season's wild-card game, the Redskins are favored as the Packers have struggled offensively and have been hurt by injuries on defense. Don't let the line fool you, though. The Redskins are still an inferior team to the Packers. As good as the Redskins' offense has been, their defense has been just as bad. They've allowed a 52.3 percent play-success rate to their opponents, third-worst in the NFL, and have only forced 25 punts all year, worst in football. I like the Packers at +3, and they are a lean at +2.5 (+100).
Massey-Peabody Line: Washington -0.8, Total: 51.5
Pick: Green Bay +3, Lean Over 49
Erin Rynning:
The Packers' injuries and inexperience in the secondary were largely hidden in the early season with a schedule of weaker passing teams. However, with games against Falcons and Colts the unit was exploited, and everything came crashing down last week against the Titans. The Packers now rank 30th in the NFL allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Redskins' pass game will be poised to pounce with a savvy coordinator in Sean McVay and capable weapons.
Meanwhile, the Packers' offense is quietly coming alive with their horrendous defense overshadowing progress. The Washington defense holds the 23rd position in yards per play allowed while facing a weaker slate of offenses of late. The weather forecast is highly questionable with blustery winds a possibility, keeping the selection a lean to the over.
Play: Lean to Over 49
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 27, Green Bay 23
The pick: Washington -3 and Over 49
John Parolin's prop bet picks:
65.5 receiving yards by Jordan Reed (O/U -110)
When healthy, Jordan Reed is the unquestioned focal point of the Redskins' offense. Even missing two games this season, Reed is still tied for the team lead with 44 receptions and has a team-high 62 targets. He's also facing a Packers defense that just allowed Delanie Walker 124 yards on nine receptions. In fact, the Packers have allowed 276 receiving yards to tight ends in the last three weeks without Clay Matthews -- only the Vikings have allowed more (300).
The Packers have allowed 9.1 yards per target to tight ends this season despite facing a slate of opponents that don't feature the tight end frequently. Aside from the Titans (and Walker's 124-yard performance), the Packers have faced two tight ends ranked in the top 10 in receiving yards this year. Green Bay faced Jason Witten (team-high eight targets against the Packers) and Zach Miller (with Matt Barkley and Brian Hoyer at quarterback). Neither of those players occupy the offensive role Reed does (or have his athleticism). At 9.1 yards per target, Reed needs eight targets to hit 66 yards. That should be feasible.
The play: Over
80.5 receiving yards by Jordy Nelson (O/U -110)
For a team that committed the most guaranteed money ever to a cornerback, there's been a surprising amount of opportunity for top wide receivers against the Redskins. Top-option wideouts Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Odell Beckham Jr., Dez Bryant, Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones have all topped 90 yards this season against Washington's defense, and Nelson's name generally belongs with those wide receivers.
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The state of the Packers' offense brings the real question mark, with 2016 representing one of the toughest seasons of Rodgers' career. Rodgers' deep ball has declined every year since he connected on 51 percent of attempts in 2013. That mark is down to 26 percent, with Rodgers posting less than half of his yards per attempt totals on throws at least 20 yards downfield. This is prime Nelson territory -- but the connection has already shown signs of getting back to normal. Nelson has at least 94 receiving yards in three straight games and 40 total targets in that span. Rodgers' struggles won't be drastic enough to preclude Nelson from putting up numbers.
The play: Over
