[h=1]How to bet Houston-Oakland[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 11 games, including Monday night's Houston-Oakland matchup in Mexico City.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Matchup: Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders (at Mexico City)
Spread: Opened Oakland -3.5; now Oakland -6
Total: Opened 46.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Oakland
Public perception: The public has been falling in love with Oakland all season, and the Raiders have justified that love at 7-2 straight up & 6-3 against the spread with covers in their last three games. The Texans are in the playoff hunt, too, but are not getting as much love despite being 5-3-1 ATS.
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Wiseguys' view: Early sharps were on the Raiders at lower numbers, but the public has mostly pushed this line to Oakland -6. Sportsbooks are going to need to knock off several big teasers on Sunday or they'll have a lot of liability to the Raiders winning straight up on teasers.
Dave Tuley's take: I'm as impressed as anyone with the Raiders' season to date, but I believe this is where we see them getting overrated by the market. The NFL Vegas Rankings we're a part of here at ESPN Chalk have the Raiders as just 2 points better than the Texans on a neutral field (which we have here in Mexico City) yet the public is betting it as if the Raiders have home-field advantage and we're getting several points of value here on the underdogs.
The Texans' No. 4 defense (in terms of yards per game) can contain the Raiders' No. 5 offense while the Texans' No. 30 offense (granted, they've been inconsistent) can have success on the Raiders' No. 29 defense. I see this coming down to a field goal.
The pick: Texans +6*.
Rufus Peabody:
This line is considerably higher than I anticipated it would be. Houston has been extremely lucky -- all their wins have been by a touchdown or less, and their losses have been by an average of 21 points per game. However, so Oakland has had its fair share of luck, too. Despite some marquee wins and a 7-2 record, Oakland is by no means a powerhouse team. In fact, our model rates them as the worst team in the AFC West, below even the Chargers. I make the line Oakland -4.7, and lean Houston at +6. Houston is a play at +6.5.
Massey-Peabody Line: Oakland -4.7, Total: 44.3
Pick: Lean Houston +6
Erin Rynning:
The Texans' offense continues to be a work in progress at best under Brock Osweiler. It ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play at 4.7 with Osweiler sporting a 74.1 passer rating. The Raiders' defensive numbers are troubling and puzzling for a 7-2 club. However, I've pledged throughout the season the unit would show improvement as the year moved forward. Oakland is led by its flashy pass game, but the Texans rank third in the NFL allowing 197 yards per game through the air. It is worth noting that their pass defense has been banged up throughout the season and is expected to be healthy Monday night. If the total is 46.5 or higher, I'm buying; otherwise, this becomes a lean.
Play: Under at 46.5 or more
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Oakland 24, Houston 20
Play: Houston and the under
John Parolin's prop bet:
80.5 rushing yards by Lamar Miller (O/U -110)
In the last month, Lamar Miller has been hampered by a shoulder and ankle injury, the latter of which earned him a questionable designation for most of the week. Miller says he's good to go for Monday night, while backups Alfred Blueand Jonathan Grimes both didn't practice. His health situation is the primary case for taking the "under."
When healthy, Miller represents a substantial share of the Texans' rushing game -- he's one of 7 backs in the league that's received over two-thirds of his team's rushes. Considering Houston ranks sixth in the league with 1,093 yards, it's no surprise that Miller's a top-10 running back this season (720 rush yards, seventh). Plus, Oakland's defense has been susceptible to the running game -- they're 31st in the NFL with 4.7 yards per rush allowed. At that average, Miller would need only 18 rushes to hit 81 yards. But here's the problem: He's hit 18 rushes in only one of his last five games, averaging 15.0 in that span even with a 24-rush game in Week 6 (before both of his injuries). A heavy workload may put Miller's availability down the stretch in jeopardy for a 6-3 team in first place in the AFC South.
The play: Under
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Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 11 games, including Monday night's Houston-Oakland matchup in Mexico City.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Spread: Opened Oakland -3.5; now Oakland -6
Total: Opened 46.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Oakland
Public perception: The public has been falling in love with Oakland all season, and the Raiders have justified that love at 7-2 straight up & 6-3 against the spread with covers in their last three games. The Texans are in the playoff hunt, too, but are not getting as much love despite being 5-3-1 ATS.
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Wiseguys' view: Early sharps were on the Raiders at lower numbers, but the public has mostly pushed this line to Oakland -6. Sportsbooks are going to need to knock off several big teasers on Sunday or they'll have a lot of liability to the Raiders winning straight up on teasers.
Dave Tuley's take: I'm as impressed as anyone with the Raiders' season to date, but I believe this is where we see them getting overrated by the market. The NFL Vegas Rankings we're a part of here at ESPN Chalk have the Raiders as just 2 points better than the Texans on a neutral field (which we have here in Mexico City) yet the public is betting it as if the Raiders have home-field advantage and we're getting several points of value here on the underdogs.
The Texans' No. 4 defense (in terms of yards per game) can contain the Raiders' No. 5 offense while the Texans' No. 30 offense (granted, they've been inconsistent) can have success on the Raiders' No. 29 defense. I see this coming down to a field goal.
The pick: Texans +6*.
Rufus Peabody:
This line is considerably higher than I anticipated it would be. Houston has been extremely lucky -- all their wins have been by a touchdown or less, and their losses have been by an average of 21 points per game. However, so Oakland has had its fair share of luck, too. Despite some marquee wins and a 7-2 record, Oakland is by no means a powerhouse team. In fact, our model rates them as the worst team in the AFC West, below even the Chargers. I make the line Oakland -4.7, and lean Houston at +6. Houston is a play at +6.5.
Massey-Peabody Line: Oakland -4.7, Total: 44.3
Pick: Lean Houston +6
Erin Rynning:
The Texans' offense continues to be a work in progress at best under Brock Osweiler. It ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play at 4.7 with Osweiler sporting a 74.1 passer rating. The Raiders' defensive numbers are troubling and puzzling for a 7-2 club. However, I've pledged throughout the season the unit would show improvement as the year moved forward. Oakland is led by its flashy pass game, but the Texans rank third in the NFL allowing 197 yards per game through the air. It is worth noting that their pass defense has been banged up throughout the season and is expected to be healthy Monday night. If the total is 46.5 or higher, I'm buying; otherwise, this becomes a lean.
Play: Under at 46.5 or more
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Oakland 24, Houston 20
Play: Houston and the under
John Parolin's prop bet:
80.5 rushing yards by Lamar Miller (O/U -110)
In the last month, Lamar Miller has been hampered by a shoulder and ankle injury, the latter of which earned him a questionable designation for most of the week. Miller says he's good to go for Monday night, while backups Alfred Blueand Jonathan Grimes both didn't practice. His health situation is the primary case for taking the "under."
When healthy, Miller represents a substantial share of the Texans' rushing game -- he's one of 7 backs in the league that's received over two-thirds of his team's rushes. Considering Houston ranks sixth in the league with 1,093 yards, it's no surprise that Miller's a top-10 running back this season (720 rush yards, seventh). Plus, Oakland's defense has been susceptible to the running game -- they're 31st in the NFL with 4.7 yards per rush allowed. At that average, Miller would need only 18 rushes to hit 81 yards. But here's the problem: He's hit 18 rushes in only one of his last five games, averaging 15.0 in that span even with a 24-rush game in Week 6 (before both of his injuries). A heavy workload may put Miller's availability down the stretch in jeopardy for a 6-3 team in first place in the AFC South.
The play: Under
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