Week 11 NFL betting takeaways
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 11 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks as though one team is going to coast to victory but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leading to them crying "bad beat!" Of course, there also are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kinds of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 11 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should have covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against the spread results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
Thursday: Carolina (-3.5) in 23-20 home win over New Orleans
Bad beats are supposed to be surprising results in which a team unexpectedly rallies to cover the spread, but with this being the third straight week that the Panthers have let a commanding lead slip away, it's hardly surprising anymore. Still, this has to be considered a bad beat for Carolina's backers, as <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">the Panthers led 23-3 entering the fourth quarter and bettors certainly deserved better. The Saints scored 17 unanswered points capped by Drew Brees' 8-yard touchdown pass to Coby Fleener with 2:52 to play to get in the back door at 23-20. The Panthers' defense held Brees to 171 yards and no touchdowns through three quarters, and it looked as if they might be on the way to turning the season around. After the loss, and potential loss of LB Luke Kuechly, that progress seems to be negated.</offer>
Jacksonville (+5.5) in 26-19 loss at Detroit
The Jaguars were in this game the whole way, leading 3-0, 9-6 and 19-16. The Lions took a 23-19 lead with 10:03 left on a 1-yard touchdown run by TE Eric Ebron but weren't covering. And then with 2:34 left in the game, the Lions were facing fourth-and-2 at the Jacksonville 46 and it looked as though the Jaguars were going to get the ball back with a chance at the outright win. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford did the obligatory hard-count to attempt to draw the Jaguars offside, and nose tackle Sen'Derrick Marks obliged. Even then, the Lions still had to get another first down to get in field-goal range, and there was a chance they could still just run out the clock, but Matt Prater kicked the spread-covering, 43-yard field goal with 0:22 to play. The Lions have shown a lot of resiliency by winning five of their past six despite trailing in the fourth quarter in all those games. They still have no running game -- Theo Riddick was their leading rusher with 13 yards (another reason it was so frustrating that Jacksonville couldn't stop them on the late crucial drive) -- and they had to rely on a tight end to score the go-ahead TD. I have to believe the lack of a running game will come back to haunt the Lions at some point.
Los Angeles (+1) in 14-10 home loss to Miami
Jared Goff went three-and-out on his first series but then he led the Rams on a four-play, 68-yard drive on his second possession and they took a 7-0 lead on Todd Gurley's 24-yard TD run. It stayed that way until Greg Zuerlein's 46-yard field goal made it 10-0 with 1:39 left in the third quarter, and it looked as if that would be enough, as Miami's offense was overpowered by the Rams' defense (though the Dolphins had a Ryan Tannehill interception in Los Angeles territory). However, after not scoring for the first 55:58 of the game, the Dolphins scored two touchdowns to steal the contest 14-10, going ahead (and over the spread) on DeVante Parker's 9-yard TD pass from Tannehill with 36 seconds left. I'm going to downgrade both teams in my power ratings.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
Bears (+7) in 22-16 loss at New York Giants
This wasn't "easy," especially as the Bears managed to cover only by losing by 6 points (instead of a push on the closing line of New York -7) as Robbie Gould missed the point after Eli Manning's 15-yard go-ahead TD pass to Sterling Shepard with 6:49 left in the third quarter (the second straight week that duo hooked up for what turned out to be the winning score). But the Bears were the right side throughout as the Giants never led by more than the spread, and the Bears held leads of 6-0 and 16-6 before the Giants rallied. Manning & Co. have won five straight games and, unlike last year, have figured out how to pull out close ones (don't forget they're the only team to beat the Cowboys so far this season).
Indianapolis (-3) in 24-17 home win over Tennessee
The Colts jumped out to a 21-0 lead with touchdowns on their first three possessions and coasted from there. The Titans made it interesting by making the score 21-17 with 12:14 remaining (though the Colts were still covering the spread at that point) and Adam Vinatieri closed the scoring with a 49-yard FG for the 24-17 final margin. The Colts showed they still have Titans' number, and it was disappointing that Tennessee couldn't get its offense on track until facing such a big deficit. The Titans will probably continue to do well against weaker competition (next week at Chicago) but they're still a year away from getting over the hump against legitimate contenders.
Buffalo (+2.5) in 16-12 win at Cincinnati
The Bills never trailed by more than the spread. Even when the Bengals did go ahead 12-10 with 3:10 left in the second quarter on Andy Dalton's 1-yard TD pass to Tyler Boyd, Mike Nugent missed the point after to keep the Bengals from going up by 3. Buffalo added two Dan Carpenter field goals in the second half to get the outright upset as the defense shut down Cincinnati. It didn't help that the Bengals lost WR A.J. Green and RB Giovani Bernard to injuries. Cincinnati's underachieving season keeps getting worse. I wasn't overly impressed by the Bills either, and we'll have to see the extent of injuries to LeSean McCoy (thumb) and Robert Woods (knee).
Tampa Bay (+7) in 19-17 win at Kansas City
The Buccaneers trailed 3-0 and 10-6 but never by more than the spread. Tampa Bay took a 12-10 lead on Roberto Aguayo's 36-yard FG at the end of the Bucs' opening drive of the second half. They extended the lead to 19-10, and the Chiefs got only as close as 19-17 with 2:27 to play. The Bucs racked up 442 yards but found the end zone only once, though that's partly a credit to the Chiefs' defense, which kept them in the game. This game mostly confirmed that I wouldn't trust either of these teams as favorites, but both should be live as underdogs moving forward.
Minnesota (-2) in 30-24 home win over Arizona
This game was pick 'em earlier in the week, and it very nearly ended up in the 50-50 category here. I land on the Vikings being the right side mostly because they led 20-10 and then 30-17, but the truth is that it more of a toss-up game, as the Vikings led 13-10 and the Cardinals were driving for the go-ahead score when Xavier Rhodesintercepted Carson Palmer and ran it back 100 yards for a TD and a 20-10 lead. The Cardinals got within 3 at 20-17, but then Cordarrelle Patterson returned the second-half kickoff 104 yards to extend the lead again. The Vikings made the big plays when they needed them, but it wasn't a dominant victory (Arizona outgained Minnesota 290-217). The Vikings snapped their four-game losing streak, but there's still cause for concern.
Seattle (-6.5) in 26-15 home win over Philadelphia
The Seahawks trailed 7-6 early in the second quarter but got back over the spread at 16-7 by halftime and mostly coasted to victory as they led 26-7 early in the fourth quarter before the Eagles finally cut it to 26-15. Between Philadelphia's two TD drives, the Seattle defense dominated while the offense continued to improve with Russell Wilson spreading the ball around (and catching a TD pass himself from Doug Baldwin). C.J. Prosise's star continued to rise with a 72-yard TD run to start the scoring, but he got hurt and we saw the return of Thomas Rawls, so the Seahawks' offense shouldn't miss a beat.
Washington (-3) in 42-24 win over Green Bay
This was closer than the final score indicates, but the Redskins were mostly the right side, leading 13-10 at halftime and extending that to 22-10 heading into the wild fourth quarter that saw 34 points scored. Kirk Cousins was impressive with clutch play after clutch play, including deep completions to Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon. However, I still wouldn't trust either defense to hold a lead.
50/50 ATS results
Dallas (-7) in 27-17 home win over Baltimore
I almost wanted to call this a bad beat for Ravens backers, as I was on that side and felt they should have covered, but it was mostly a coin-flip result. Baltimore did lead 7-0 and 10-7 and was always within a score of the spread, but Dallas also stayed close throughout and pulled ahead 24-10 on Dak Prescott's 13-yard TD pass to Dez Bryant with 11:30 left in the fourth quarter before the Ravens responded to put it back on the spread with 8:16 left to play. There was a chance the Cowboys could have run out the clock and kept it at a push, but Dan Bailey added the spread-covering 21-yard field goal with 1:50 remaining. The Cowboys continue to show great balance on offense, as Ezekiel Elliott ran for 97 yards in addition to Prescott's 301 passing yards and three TDs. Prescott also completed several third-down passes to extend drives.
Pittsburgh (-9) in 24-9 win at Cleveland
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</article>The Steelers seemed to be in control, but the truth is that the Browns were within the spread at 17-9 after Josh McCown's 14-yard TD pass to Gary Barnidge with 9:45 left in the game and were always within a score of the spread. Ryan Harris' fumble recovery in the end zone with 3:36 left put the Steelers back over the spread or else the Browns might have held on for the cover. While the Steelers won rather easily to end their four-game losing streak, the fact they were never able to pull away against the Cleveland defense is cause for concern. The Browns' offense (which gained only 209 yards, with McCown the leading rusher with 11 yards) looked even more inept than usual.
New England (-11.5) in 30-17 win at San Francisco
There was never too much doubt about the Patriots winning this game, but they ended up covering the closing 11.5-point spread by just 2.5 points and didn't cover the opening line of -14 or contests that used a 13.5-point spread and pushed in the Westgate SuperContest with a line of -13. Besides, the 49ers actually pulled the score to 13-10 at halftime, and it was still only 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter before the Patriots regained control with 17 unanswered points. The Patriots did pretty much what was expected of them, outgaining the 49ers 444-299 with Tom Brady throwing four TD passes.
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 11 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks as though one team is going to coast to victory but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leading to them crying "bad beat!" Of course, there also are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kinds of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 11 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should have covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against the spread results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
Bad beats are supposed to be surprising results in which a team unexpectedly rallies to cover the spread, but with this being the third straight week that the Panthers have let a commanding lead slip away, it's hardly surprising anymore. Still, this has to be considered a bad beat for Carolina's backers, as <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">the Panthers led 23-3 entering the fourth quarter and bettors certainly deserved better. The Saints scored 17 unanswered points capped by Drew Brees' 8-yard touchdown pass to Coby Fleener with 2:52 to play to get in the back door at 23-20. The Panthers' defense held Brees to 171 yards and no touchdowns through three quarters, and it looked as if they might be on the way to turning the season around. After the loss, and potential loss of LB Luke Kuechly, that progress seems to be negated.</offer>
The Jaguars were in this game the whole way, leading 3-0, 9-6 and 19-16. The Lions took a 23-19 lead with 10:03 left on a 1-yard touchdown run by TE Eric Ebron but weren't covering. And then with 2:34 left in the game, the Lions were facing fourth-and-2 at the Jacksonville 46 and it looked as though the Jaguars were going to get the ball back with a chance at the outright win. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford did the obligatory hard-count to attempt to draw the Jaguars offside, and nose tackle Sen'Derrick Marks obliged. Even then, the Lions still had to get another first down to get in field-goal range, and there was a chance they could still just run out the clock, but Matt Prater kicked the spread-covering, 43-yard field goal with 0:22 to play. The Lions have shown a lot of resiliency by winning five of their past six despite trailing in the fourth quarter in all those games. They still have no running game -- Theo Riddick was their leading rusher with 13 yards (another reason it was so frustrating that Jacksonville couldn't stop them on the late crucial drive) -- and they had to rely on a tight end to score the go-ahead TD. I have to believe the lack of a running game will come back to haunt the Lions at some point.
Jared Goff went three-and-out on his first series but then he led the Rams on a four-play, 68-yard drive on his second possession and they took a 7-0 lead on Todd Gurley's 24-yard TD run. It stayed that way until Greg Zuerlein's 46-yard field goal made it 10-0 with 1:39 left in the third quarter, and it looked as if that would be enough, as Miami's offense was overpowered by the Rams' defense (though the Dolphins had a Ryan Tannehill interception in Los Angeles territory). However, after not scoring for the first 55:58 of the game, the Dolphins scored two touchdowns to steal the contest 14-10, going ahead (and over the spread) on DeVante Parker's 9-yard TD pass from Tannehill with 36 seconds left. I'm going to downgrade both teams in my power ratings.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
This wasn't "easy," especially as the Bears managed to cover only by losing by 6 points (instead of a push on the closing line of New York -7) as Robbie Gould missed the point after Eli Manning's 15-yard go-ahead TD pass to Sterling Shepard with 6:49 left in the third quarter (the second straight week that duo hooked up for what turned out to be the winning score). But the Bears were the right side throughout as the Giants never led by more than the spread, and the Bears held leads of 6-0 and 16-6 before the Giants rallied. Manning & Co. have won five straight games and, unlike last year, have figured out how to pull out close ones (don't forget they're the only team to beat the Cowboys so far this season).
The Colts jumped out to a 21-0 lead with touchdowns on their first three possessions and coasted from there. The Titans made it interesting by making the score 21-17 with 12:14 remaining (though the Colts were still covering the spread at that point) and Adam Vinatieri closed the scoring with a 49-yard FG for the 24-17 final margin. The Colts showed they still have Titans' number, and it was disappointing that Tennessee couldn't get its offense on track until facing such a big deficit. The Titans will probably continue to do well against weaker competition (next week at Chicago) but they're still a year away from getting over the hump against legitimate contenders.
The Bills never trailed by more than the spread. Even when the Bengals did go ahead 12-10 with 3:10 left in the second quarter on Andy Dalton's 1-yard TD pass to Tyler Boyd, Mike Nugent missed the point after to keep the Bengals from going up by 3. Buffalo added two Dan Carpenter field goals in the second half to get the outright upset as the defense shut down Cincinnati. It didn't help that the Bengals lost WR A.J. Green and RB Giovani Bernard to injuries. Cincinnati's underachieving season keeps getting worse. I wasn't overly impressed by the Bills either, and we'll have to see the extent of injuries to LeSean McCoy (thumb) and Robert Woods (knee).
The Buccaneers trailed 3-0 and 10-6 but never by more than the spread. Tampa Bay took a 12-10 lead on Roberto Aguayo's 36-yard FG at the end of the Bucs' opening drive of the second half. They extended the lead to 19-10, and the Chiefs got only as close as 19-17 with 2:27 to play. The Bucs racked up 442 yards but found the end zone only once, though that's partly a credit to the Chiefs' defense, which kept them in the game. This game mostly confirmed that I wouldn't trust either of these teams as favorites, but both should be live as underdogs moving forward.
This game was pick 'em earlier in the week, and it very nearly ended up in the 50-50 category here. I land on the Vikings being the right side mostly because they led 20-10 and then 30-17, but the truth is that it more of a toss-up game, as the Vikings led 13-10 and the Cardinals were driving for the go-ahead score when Xavier Rhodesintercepted Carson Palmer and ran it back 100 yards for a TD and a 20-10 lead. The Cardinals got within 3 at 20-17, but then Cordarrelle Patterson returned the second-half kickoff 104 yards to extend the lead again. The Vikings made the big plays when they needed them, but it wasn't a dominant victory (Arizona outgained Minnesota 290-217). The Vikings snapped their four-game losing streak, but there's still cause for concern.
The Seahawks trailed 7-6 early in the second quarter but got back over the spread at 16-7 by halftime and mostly coasted to victory as they led 26-7 early in the fourth quarter before the Eagles finally cut it to 26-15. Between Philadelphia's two TD drives, the Seattle defense dominated while the offense continued to improve with Russell Wilson spreading the ball around (and catching a TD pass himself from Doug Baldwin). C.J. Prosise's star continued to rise with a 72-yard TD run to start the scoring, but he got hurt and we saw the return of Thomas Rawls, so the Seahawks' offense shouldn't miss a beat.
This was closer than the final score indicates, but the Redskins were mostly the right side, leading 13-10 at halftime and extending that to 22-10 heading into the wild fourth quarter that saw 34 points scored. Kirk Cousins was impressive with clutch play after clutch play, including deep completions to Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon. However, I still wouldn't trust either defense to hold a lead.
50/50 ATS results
I almost wanted to call this a bad beat for Ravens backers, as I was on that side and felt they should have covered, but it was mostly a coin-flip result. Baltimore did lead 7-0 and 10-7 and was always within a score of the spread, but Dallas also stayed close throughout and pulled ahead 24-10 on Dak Prescott's 13-yard TD pass to Dez Bryant with 11:30 left in the fourth quarter before the Ravens responded to put it back on the spread with 8:16 left to play. There was a chance the Cowboys could have run out the clock and kept it at a push, but Dan Bailey added the spread-covering 21-yard field goal with 1:50 remaining. The Cowboys continue to show great balance on offense, as Ezekiel Elliott ran for 97 yards in addition to Prescott's 301 passing yards and three TDs. Prescott also completed several third-down passes to extend drives.
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</article>The Steelers seemed to be in control, but the truth is that the Browns were within the spread at 17-9 after Josh McCown's 14-yard TD pass to Gary Barnidge with 9:45 left in the game and were always within a score of the spread. Ryan Harris' fumble recovery in the end zone with 3:36 left put the Steelers back over the spread or else the Browns might have held on for the cover. While the Steelers won rather easily to end their four-game losing streak, the fact they were never able to pull away against the Cleveland defense is cause for concern. The Browns' offense (which gained only 209 yards, with McCown the leading rusher with 11 yards) looked even more inept than usual.
There was never too much doubt about the Patriots winning this game, but they ended up covering the closing 11.5-point spread by just 2.5 points and didn't cover the opening line of -14 or contests that used a 13.5-point spread and pushed in the Westgate SuperContest with a line of -13. Besides, the 49ers actually pulled the score to 13-10 at halftime, and it was still only 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter before the Patriots regained control with 17 unanswered points. The Patriots did pretty much what was expected of them, outgaining the 49ers 444-299 with Tom Brady throwing four TD passes.
