[h=1][/h][h=1]Early betting look for Week 13: Sell North Carolina[/h]
Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, it's not too early to look ahead to teams that might be ripe to back or fade come bowl season. We'll also check in with the Westgate to see if anybody besides Louisville saw their championship odds change much, plus delve into Tennessee's latest miracles, identify a good spot to back a one-win team, and look to the AAC for what could be the highest and lowest-scoring games of the season.
[h=2]Portfolio Checkup[/h][h=2]BUY[/h]Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Last week, Tulsa was coming off a draining and controversial loss at Navy that essentially decided the division title, and had to hit the road for another East Coast trip, the team's first consecutive road games of the year. The Hurricane whipped a good UCF squad, again showing off how far this defense has come in a short time. Pair that with a balanced, potent, cutting-edge offense chock-full of senior standouts, and you've got a contender. Tulsa acquitted itself very well last year in Philip Montgomery's first postseason coaching assignment, and this bunch looks like a team ready to crush somebody in a bowl game.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Central Michigan Chippewas
The Chips took a hard-fought, goal-denying loss to Toledo a little too hard and went into the tank for a few weeks. But this group has excellent senior leadership, and an open date helped the Chips reestablish their mojo along with their physical, downhill identity, to get back on track with a good win over Ohio. Last year's team played well in a bowl loss to Minnesota, and the 2016 group looks like it's hungry again and playing its best football heading into the postseason.
[h=2]SELL[/h]North Carolina Tar Heels
The Heels are still alive in the ACC race, but getting to the title game requires not only beating North Carolina State on Friday, but having 2-9 Virginia win in Blacksburg for the first time since 1998. Before Carolina can play Cavaliers cheerleader, though, it has to stop a Wolfpack squad that's been playing pretty well the past few weeks after an October swoon and is now fighting for its postseason life.
Larry Fedora has lost his backers money in November and beyond every year but one at North Carolina, and the Heels have been physically dominated in consecutive bowls. The Tar Heel defense was on the field for 42-25 last week against the Citadel. This team has been sloppy throughout November and has not shown enough improvement on either side of the ball the past month.
[h=2]Games of Interest, Week 13[/h]Tennessee Volunteers (-8) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Tennessee's season has been so full of disappointments that it might be easy to lose sight of the fact that this week is the first week that the Vols are actually out of the SEC championship hunt. That means that while there may only be two remaining games, the real disappointment is just beginning. The offense is starting to click, but the defense has collapsed down the stretch despite the return of some key contributors. Up until two weeks ago, none of the 32 teams that had allowed 400 rushing yards had won that week. But now Tennessee has done it twice in a row. The past two games, the Vols have allowed 1,375 yards, 863 of it on the ground, and have been outgained by nearly 200 yards. And they've won those games by a combined 40 points.
Just like the early-season Vols couldn't keep leading the nation in fumbles and getting away with it, the luck will also run out on the late-season version. The Vols have faced some bad defensive teams the past two weeks but this time have a different animal in a Vanderbilt squad that hasn't allowed more than 26 points since September and just scored the most points in a conference game of the Derek Mason era. Vandy is running the ball with authority, peaking in the passing game and playing inspired defense at home. Expect the Commodores to control the game on the ground and physically humiliate the Vols on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
San Jose State Spartans (-4) at Fresno State Bulldogs
Neither of these teams is bowling this year, and both are coming off last-second home losses. San Jose State's was probably more difficult to digest, though, and the Spartans will have a difficult time rallying after handing a win to Air Force. Fresno also relinquished a late lead to lose to Hawaii, but this team's unity has been off the charts since interim coach Eric Kiesau took over last month, and the Bulldogs have shown improvement each week. We'll be trying all week to learn which side really wants this one more, but early signs are that this is a good spot for the Dogs, who haven't lost to San Jose at home by more than this margin since 1983.
[h=2]Movers and Shakers[/h]It's still a crowded pack behind odds-on favorite Alabama and No. 2 Ohio State. Louisville fell out of contention, but otherwise the top of the Westgate betting order didn't change much.
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[h=2]Chalk Bits[/h]As conference and divisional races are decided in the season's last few weeks, it's important to know which teams might be scoreboard-watching as other games impact their fates. In the AAC, Temple holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over South Florida and would claim the East with a win over East Carolina on Saturday night. The Owls would also win it with a South Florida loss to Central Florida at noon Eastern Saturday. We wouldn't want to be caught laying big wood with Temple if the Bulls drop the early game and the Owls have the title wrapped up before they kick off.
The same scenario occurs in the ACC Coastal, where Virginia Tech holds the tiebreaker over North Carolina. The Hokies are big favorites against Virginia on Saturday, but they'll have already booked a date with Clemson in the ACC title game if North Carolina loses to NC State on Friday.
It's also always critical to understand how each team views the stakes of each game. That's a tricky pursuit at times, but at this time of year it's mostly straightforward when it comes to teams on the postseason bubble. Keep in mind that the following teams are playing for bowl eligibility this week: SMU, NC State, Boston College, TCU, Texas, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, North Texas, USM, UTSA, Miami (OH), Akron, Arizona State, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, ULL and South Alabama.
As Kirby Smart prepares for his first meeting with Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech, let's not forget that in 2011 a similar Georgia Southern attack rolled up Smart's defense for more than 300 rushing yards on nearly eight yards per carry, a scar so indelible it prompted Nick Saban's T-shirt-generating "tin horn" rant four years later. Georgia defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has spent the past decade in the NFL, and there's not much reason to think the Georgia Tech offense won't get the best of it this week when the Yellow Jackets have the ball.
We're especially looking forward to a pair of totals opening this week. Connecticut and Tulane have been playing miserable offense for weeks while shuffling key personnel, and both were shut out last week. Tulane has gone under the total for three straight weeks, Connecticut for four, but neither had seen a total in the 30s until last week's tilt between the Huskies and offensively challenged Boston College. One of the shortcuts to spotting great under plays is finding teams that cannot move the ball yet somehow manage to stay on the field and chew up the clock a bit. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 10 nationally in nearly every key metric, yet are 32nd and 50th in time of possession. That's a winning combination for the under, and in this case, we've also got two defenses playing great football down the stretch. This total should not open anywhere near the 38 points originally hung on last week's BC-UConn game.
Navy, meanwhile, is rolling offensively with 195 points in its last four AAC games and now plays an SMU team it blasted for 55 points and 403 rushing yards last year. This week, though, the Mids are busy congratulating themselves on locking up the West division while SMU is fighting for bowl eligibility. It's also the fourth road trip to another region in five weeks for the Mids. Unfocused and out of gas is not how you want your defense to show up in Dallas, as save for one clunker against Memphis, the Ponies' offensive output has been gradually increasing each week for the past two months. SMU doesn't have the answers for Navy's offense, but the home dog is equipped to shoot it out as needed. Opening this number at anything less than the highest total of the season for either team would be a mistake.
Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, it's not too early to look ahead to teams that might be ripe to back or fade come bowl season. We'll also check in with the Westgate to see if anybody besides Louisville saw their championship odds change much, plus delve into Tennessee's latest miracles, identify a good spot to back a one-win team, and look to the AAC for what could be the highest and lowest-scoring games of the season.
[h=2]Portfolio Checkup[/h][h=2]BUY[/h]Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Last week, Tulsa was coming off a draining and controversial loss at Navy that essentially decided the division title, and had to hit the road for another East Coast trip, the team's first consecutive road games of the year. The Hurricane whipped a good UCF squad, again showing off how far this defense has come in a short time. Pair that with a balanced, potent, cutting-edge offense chock-full of senior standouts, and you've got a contender. Tulsa acquitted itself very well last year in Philip Montgomery's first postseason coaching assignment, and this bunch looks like a team ready to crush somebody in a bowl game.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Central Michigan Chippewas
The Chips took a hard-fought, goal-denying loss to Toledo a little too hard and went into the tank for a few weeks. But this group has excellent senior leadership, and an open date helped the Chips reestablish their mojo along with their physical, downhill identity, to get back on track with a good win over Ohio. Last year's team played well in a bowl loss to Minnesota, and the 2016 group looks like it's hungry again and playing its best football heading into the postseason.
[h=2]SELL[/h]North Carolina Tar Heels
The Heels are still alive in the ACC race, but getting to the title game requires not only beating North Carolina State on Friday, but having 2-9 Virginia win in Blacksburg for the first time since 1998. Before Carolina can play Cavaliers cheerleader, though, it has to stop a Wolfpack squad that's been playing pretty well the past few weeks after an October swoon and is now fighting for its postseason life.
Larry Fedora has lost his backers money in November and beyond every year but one at North Carolina, and the Heels have been physically dominated in consecutive bowls. The Tar Heel defense was on the field for 42-25 last week against the Citadel. This team has been sloppy throughout November and has not shown enough improvement on either side of the ball the past month.
[h=2]Games of Interest, Week 13[/h]Tennessee Volunteers (-8) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Tennessee's season has been so full of disappointments that it might be easy to lose sight of the fact that this week is the first week that the Vols are actually out of the SEC championship hunt. That means that while there may only be two remaining games, the real disappointment is just beginning. The offense is starting to click, but the defense has collapsed down the stretch despite the return of some key contributors. Up until two weeks ago, none of the 32 teams that had allowed 400 rushing yards had won that week. But now Tennessee has done it twice in a row. The past two games, the Vols have allowed 1,375 yards, 863 of it on the ground, and have been outgained by nearly 200 yards. And they've won those games by a combined 40 points.
Just like the early-season Vols couldn't keep leading the nation in fumbles and getting away with it, the luck will also run out on the late-season version. The Vols have faced some bad defensive teams the past two weeks but this time have a different animal in a Vanderbilt squad that hasn't allowed more than 26 points since September and just scored the most points in a conference game of the Derek Mason era. Vandy is running the ball with authority, peaking in the passing game and playing inspired defense at home. Expect the Commodores to control the game on the ground and physically humiliate the Vols on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
San Jose State Spartans (-4) at Fresno State Bulldogs
Neither of these teams is bowling this year, and both are coming off last-second home losses. San Jose State's was probably more difficult to digest, though, and the Spartans will have a difficult time rallying after handing a win to Air Force. Fresno also relinquished a late lead to lose to Hawaii, but this team's unity has been off the charts since interim coach Eric Kiesau took over last month, and the Bulldogs have shown improvement each week. We'll be trying all week to learn which side really wants this one more, but early signs are that this is a good spot for the Dogs, who haven't lost to San Jose at home by more than this margin since 1983.
[h=2]Movers and Shakers[/h]It's still a crowded pack behind odds-on favorite Alabama and No. 2 Ohio State. Louisville fell out of contention, but otherwise the top of the Westgate betting order didn't change much.
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| TEAM | LAST WEEK | CURRENT |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 4-5 | 5-7 |
| Ohio State | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Clemson | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| Michigan | 15-1 | 12-1 |
| Wisconsin | 15-1 | 12-1 |
| Washington | 20-1 | 12-1 |
| Oklahoma | 20-1 | 20-1 |
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[h=2]Chalk Bits[/h]As conference and divisional races are decided in the season's last few weeks, it's important to know which teams might be scoreboard-watching as other games impact their fates. In the AAC, Temple holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over South Florida and would claim the East with a win over East Carolina on Saturday night. The Owls would also win it with a South Florida loss to Central Florida at noon Eastern Saturday. We wouldn't want to be caught laying big wood with Temple if the Bulls drop the early game and the Owls have the title wrapped up before they kick off.
The same scenario occurs in the ACC Coastal, where Virginia Tech holds the tiebreaker over North Carolina. The Hokies are big favorites against Virginia on Saturday, but they'll have already booked a date with Clemson in the ACC title game if North Carolina loses to NC State on Friday.
It's also always critical to understand how each team views the stakes of each game. That's a tricky pursuit at times, but at this time of year it's mostly straightforward when it comes to teams on the postseason bubble. Keep in mind that the following teams are playing for bowl eligibility this week: SMU, NC State, Boston College, TCU, Texas, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, North Texas, USM, UTSA, Miami (OH), Akron, Arizona State, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, ULL and South Alabama.
As Kirby Smart prepares for his first meeting with Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech, let's not forget that in 2011 a similar Georgia Southern attack rolled up Smart's defense for more than 300 rushing yards on nearly eight yards per carry, a scar so indelible it prompted Nick Saban's T-shirt-generating "tin horn" rant four years later. Georgia defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has spent the past decade in the NFL, and there's not much reason to think the Georgia Tech offense won't get the best of it this week when the Yellow Jackets have the ball.
We're especially looking forward to a pair of totals opening this week. Connecticut and Tulane have been playing miserable offense for weeks while shuffling key personnel, and both were shut out last week. Tulane has gone under the total for three straight weeks, Connecticut for four, but neither had seen a total in the 30s until last week's tilt between the Huskies and offensively challenged Boston College. One of the shortcuts to spotting great under plays is finding teams that cannot move the ball yet somehow manage to stay on the field and chew up the clock a bit. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 10 nationally in nearly every key metric, yet are 32nd and 50th in time of possession. That's a winning combination for the under, and in this case, we've also got two defenses playing great football down the stretch. This total should not open anywhere near the 38 points originally hung on last week's BC-UConn game.
Navy, meanwhile, is rolling offensively with 195 points in its last four AAC games and now plays an SMU team it blasted for 55 points and 403 rushing yards last year. This week, though, the Mids are busy congratulating themselves on locking up the West division while SMU is fighting for bowl eligibility. It's also the fourth road trip to another region in five weeks for the Mids. Unfocused and out of gas is not how you want your defense to show up in Dallas, as save for one clunker against Memphis, the Ponies' offensive output has been gradually increasing each week for the past two months. SMU doesn't have the answers for Navy's offense, but the home dog is equipped to shoot it out as needed. Opening this number at anything less than the highest total of the season for either team would be a mistake.
