[h=1]Phil Steele's best Week 13 college football bets[/h]Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS). This year the straight-up record is 67-32 (68 percent), but the ATS record is just 42-54-2 (44 percent).
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]No. 18 West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclones (+8)[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
West Virginia was thinking about a Big 12 title and a playoff spot heading into last week's game against Oklahoma. The home loss ended both those dreams and, many times, teams suffer a "bubble burst" letdown the following week.
Iowa State upset Texas Tech last week, rolling to a 66-10 win, and will be playing with newfound enthusiasm. Despite Iowa State's 3-8 record, with a first-year head coach, the fans should be excited about the future. Iowa State is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home this year versus FBS teams and this is its season finale. Meanwhile, West Virginia is in the middle portion of an Oklahoma-Baylor sandwich.
ATS pick: Iowa State (+)
Score: West Virginia 28, Iowa State 27
[h=2]NC State Wolfpack (+11.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]Friday, noon ET, ESPN
It's rivalry week and rivalry underdogs usually fare well, including some big-time upsets, as this series has often proven. The dog in this clash has gone a solid 15-3 ATS with 12 outright upsets during the past 18 years!
The Wolfpack have an underrated defense that is holding foes to 70 yards per game below their season average,19th-best in FBS. While these teams have faced similar schedules, North Carolina is only plus-33 yards per game while NC State is plus 62 yards per game, proving the talent gap to be close.
While the Tar Heels are playing with hopes of an ACC Coastal title, NC State needs a win to become bowl eligible.
ATS pick: NC State (+)
Score: North Carolina 30, NC State 27
[h=2]No. 5 Washington Huskies (-6) at No. 23 Washington State Cougars[/h]Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox
The Apple Cup is the de facto Pac-12 North title game, with the winner advancing to the Pac-12 Championship. These teams feature two of the nation's top quarterbacks with Luke Falk having a 36/7 TD/INT ratio and Jake Browningcoming in at 37/7. Washington has the stronger rush attack, averaging 209 yards per game, while Washington State is averaging just 132 yards on the ground.
Washington ranks No. 17 in my pass efficiency defense ranking and Washington State is No. 49. Washington has held opponents to 85 yards per game below their season average in Pac-12 games, while Washington State is holding them to just 25 below. The home edge goes to the Cougars, but I'll side with the stronger team as Washington shows it is a legitimate playoff contender.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 37, Washington State 27
[h=2]Michigan State Spartans (+12) at No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
If Ohio State beats Michigan, then Penn State will know that a win equals the Big Ten East title, and will be playing with added pressure. If Michigan wins, then those Big Ten title hopes are gone. Either way, Michigan State is singularly focused on this game, with one of the best dog coaches in Mark Dantonio.
Michigan State has been an underdog three times this year and has gone 3-0 ATS, covering by an average of 18 points per game -- versus Notre Dame, Michigan and Ohio State, no less. The Spartans are 12-2 ATS as a dog, winning eight outright.
Michigan State had 401 yards of offense against Michigan, which was a season high for any of their opponents. Last week, they outgained No. 2 Ohio State 334-310. While Penn State is 7-1 in the Big Ten, it's plus-93 yards per game versus Big Ten foes. Michigan State at 1-7 is in that same ballpark, at plus-55 yards per game.
ATS pick: Michigan State (+)
Score: Penn State 23, Michigan State 20
[h=2]No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5)[/h]Saturday, noon ET, ABC
This is not one of my top plays, but I always feel compelled to pick the biggest games of the week. Ohio State has now won 11 of the past 12 meetings, but Michigan has kept it closer than expected, going 12-6 ATS during the past 18 meetings between these schools. Perhaps surprisingly, there hasn't been an outright upset in the series in the past 11 years.
Urban Meyer is 8-0 ATS when either a single-digit favorite or dog. Ohio State has won its home games by an average of 51-9, outgaining foes by 305 yards per game. Michigan was a three-touchdown favorite in both of its past two road trips, but only returned home with a six-yard edge those games combined. My computer has Ohio State as an 8-point favorite, and the spread is under a touchdown.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 28, Michigan 20
[h=2]Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers (-14)[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
Looking strictly at the stats, the Badgers deserve to be a double-digit favorite here. They're plus-90 yards per game, while Minnesota is only plus-19 yards per game -- and the Badgers are at home. However, the edge intensifies when factoring in the competition they've faced. Wisconsin has taken on my 20th-toughest schedule while Minnesota logs in at just No. 86.
Minnesota's toughest nonconference foe was Colorado State, and the Gophers drew Rutgers and Maryland out of the East. Wisconsin's toughest nonconference foe was LSU, and the Badgers drew Michigan and Ohio State out of the East. Minnesota will have a tough time moving the ball as it has averaged 63 yards per game fewer than its opponents typically allow, and Wisconsin's defense has held their competition to 109 yards below their average.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 13
[h=2]No. 15 Florida Gators at No. 14 Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)[/h]Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
The Gators have the SEC championship on deck and just won the game that clinched them that spot, beating LSU in Death Valley. It may be hard to fathom, but rival Florida State is actually a sandwich game for them. The Gators are banged up and figure to aim for having as many hands on deck as they can next week. Florida State is in its home and season finale, and can grab its second win of the year against an SEC team.
LSU had three drives inside the Gator 10-yard line result in zero points, and were out first-downed, 23-14. Florida State has faced my sixth toughest schedule and Florida just No. 61. Florida State is plus-120 yards per game at home, while Florida is minus-87 yards per game away from the Swamp.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 28, Florida 16
[h=2]UCF Knights at South Florida Bulls (-10)[/h]Saturday, noon ET, CBS Sports Network
UCF is bowl eligible, but amazingly has been outgained in every AAC game it has played, to the tune of minus-94 yards per game. The Bulls' defense has taken a step back during the past four weeks, but three of those were on the road. The other game was against the Navy option at home.
South Florida has a huge edge on offense with the triplets: Quinton Flowers, Marlon Mack and Rodney Adams. They've averaged 117 more yards than their opponents allow, which is the sixth-best number in the nation. UCF lost its home finale last week by 15 points to Tulsa, and now faces a stronger Bulls team playing its final home game.
ATS pick: South Florida
Score: South Florida 38, UCF 20
[h=2]No. 13 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17)[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
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Three weeks ago, I would have given Auburn a shot in this one, but I've been nonplussed with its past two SEC efforts, including a game in which it produced just 164 total yards versus Georgia. The Tigers have done well facing teams with weak rush defenses, averaging 42.1 points per game (PPG), but they've squared off with three teams ranked in the top 35 in rush defense (Clemson, LSU and Georgia) and have averaged just 12.7 PPG in those contests.
Alabama comes in No. 1 in rush defense. The Tide did only beat Ole Miss by five points, Texas A&M by 19 and LSU by only 10. Auburn has comparable talent, and is a rivalry dog. It may also get back Kamryn Pettway. However, even with the SEC championship on deck, I'll side with the superior squad, at home, to bring their "A" game in the Iron Bowl.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Auburn 10
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ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS). This year the straight-up record is 67-32 (68 percent), but the ATS record is just 42-54-2 (44 percent).
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]No. 18 West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclones (+8)[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
West Virginia was thinking about a Big 12 title and a playoff spot heading into last week's game against Oklahoma. The home loss ended both those dreams and, many times, teams suffer a "bubble burst" letdown the following week.
Iowa State upset Texas Tech last week, rolling to a 66-10 win, and will be playing with newfound enthusiasm. Despite Iowa State's 3-8 record, with a first-year head coach, the fans should be excited about the future. Iowa State is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home this year versus FBS teams and this is its season finale. Meanwhile, West Virginia is in the middle portion of an Oklahoma-Baylor sandwich.
ATS pick: Iowa State (+)
Score: West Virginia 28, Iowa State 27
[h=2]NC State Wolfpack (+11.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]Friday, noon ET, ESPN
It's rivalry week and rivalry underdogs usually fare well, including some big-time upsets, as this series has often proven. The dog in this clash has gone a solid 15-3 ATS with 12 outright upsets during the past 18 years!
The Wolfpack have an underrated defense that is holding foes to 70 yards per game below their season average,19th-best in FBS. While these teams have faced similar schedules, North Carolina is only plus-33 yards per game while NC State is plus 62 yards per game, proving the talent gap to be close.
While the Tar Heels are playing with hopes of an ACC Coastal title, NC State needs a win to become bowl eligible.
ATS pick: NC State (+)
Score: North Carolina 30, NC State 27
[h=2]No. 5 Washington Huskies (-6) at No. 23 Washington State Cougars[/h]Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox
The Apple Cup is the de facto Pac-12 North title game, with the winner advancing to the Pac-12 Championship. These teams feature two of the nation's top quarterbacks with Luke Falk having a 36/7 TD/INT ratio and Jake Browningcoming in at 37/7. Washington has the stronger rush attack, averaging 209 yards per game, while Washington State is averaging just 132 yards on the ground.
Washington ranks No. 17 in my pass efficiency defense ranking and Washington State is No. 49. Washington has held opponents to 85 yards per game below their season average in Pac-12 games, while Washington State is holding them to just 25 below. The home edge goes to the Cougars, but I'll side with the stronger team as Washington shows it is a legitimate playoff contender.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 37, Washington State 27
[h=2]Michigan State Spartans (+12) at No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
If Ohio State beats Michigan, then Penn State will know that a win equals the Big Ten East title, and will be playing with added pressure. If Michigan wins, then those Big Ten title hopes are gone. Either way, Michigan State is singularly focused on this game, with one of the best dog coaches in Mark Dantonio.
Michigan State has been an underdog three times this year and has gone 3-0 ATS, covering by an average of 18 points per game -- versus Notre Dame, Michigan and Ohio State, no less. The Spartans are 12-2 ATS as a dog, winning eight outright.
Michigan State had 401 yards of offense against Michigan, which was a season high for any of their opponents. Last week, they outgained No. 2 Ohio State 334-310. While Penn State is 7-1 in the Big Ten, it's plus-93 yards per game versus Big Ten foes. Michigan State at 1-7 is in that same ballpark, at plus-55 yards per game.
ATS pick: Michigan State (+)
Score: Penn State 23, Michigan State 20
[h=2]No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5)[/h]Saturday, noon ET, ABC
This is not one of my top plays, but I always feel compelled to pick the biggest games of the week. Ohio State has now won 11 of the past 12 meetings, but Michigan has kept it closer than expected, going 12-6 ATS during the past 18 meetings between these schools. Perhaps surprisingly, there hasn't been an outright upset in the series in the past 11 years.
Urban Meyer is 8-0 ATS when either a single-digit favorite or dog. Ohio State has won its home games by an average of 51-9, outgaining foes by 305 yards per game. Michigan was a three-touchdown favorite in both of its past two road trips, but only returned home with a six-yard edge those games combined. My computer has Ohio State as an 8-point favorite, and the spread is under a touchdown.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 28, Michigan 20
[h=2]Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers (-14)[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
Looking strictly at the stats, the Badgers deserve to be a double-digit favorite here. They're plus-90 yards per game, while Minnesota is only plus-19 yards per game -- and the Badgers are at home. However, the edge intensifies when factoring in the competition they've faced. Wisconsin has taken on my 20th-toughest schedule while Minnesota logs in at just No. 86.
Minnesota's toughest nonconference foe was Colorado State, and the Gophers drew Rutgers and Maryland out of the East. Wisconsin's toughest nonconference foe was LSU, and the Badgers drew Michigan and Ohio State out of the East. Minnesota will have a tough time moving the ball as it has averaged 63 yards per game fewer than its opponents typically allow, and Wisconsin's defense has held their competition to 109 yards below their average.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 13
[h=2]No. 15 Florida Gators at No. 14 Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)[/h]Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
The Gators have the SEC championship on deck and just won the game that clinched them that spot, beating LSU in Death Valley. It may be hard to fathom, but rival Florida State is actually a sandwich game for them. The Gators are banged up and figure to aim for having as many hands on deck as they can next week. Florida State is in its home and season finale, and can grab its second win of the year against an SEC team.
LSU had three drives inside the Gator 10-yard line result in zero points, and were out first-downed, 23-14. Florida State has faced my sixth toughest schedule and Florida just No. 61. Florida State is plus-120 yards per game at home, while Florida is minus-87 yards per game away from the Swamp.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 28, Florida 16
[h=2]UCF Knights at South Florida Bulls (-10)[/h]Saturday, noon ET, CBS Sports Network
UCF is bowl eligible, but amazingly has been outgained in every AAC game it has played, to the tune of minus-94 yards per game. The Bulls' defense has taken a step back during the past four weeks, but three of those were on the road. The other game was against the Navy option at home.
South Florida has a huge edge on offense with the triplets: Quinton Flowers, Marlon Mack and Rodney Adams. They've averaged 117 more yards than their opponents allow, which is the sixth-best number in the nation. UCF lost its home finale last week by 15 points to Tulsa, and now faces a stronger Bulls team playing its final home game.
ATS pick: South Florida
Score: South Florida 38, UCF 20
[h=2]No. 13 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17)[/h]Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
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Three weeks ago, I would have given Auburn a shot in this one, but I've been nonplussed with its past two SEC efforts, including a game in which it produced just 164 total yards versus Georgia. The Tigers have done well facing teams with weak rush defenses, averaging 42.1 points per game (PPG), but they've squared off with three teams ranked in the top 35 in rush defense (Clemson, LSU and Georgia) and have averaged just 12.7 PPG in those contests.
Alabama comes in No. 1 in rush defense. The Tide did only beat Ole Miss by five points, Texas A&M by 19 and LSU by only 10. Auburn has comparable talent, and is a rivalry dog. It may also get back Kamryn Pettway. However, even with the SEC championship on deck, I'll side with the superior squad, at home, to bring their "A" game in the Iron Bowl.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Auburn 10
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