[h=1]How to bet Kansas City-Denver[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 12 games, including the Kansas City-Denver Sunday night matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos[/h]Spread: Opened Denver -3.5; now Denver -3.5
Total: Opened 39.5; now 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Kansas City
Public perception: This game was flexed to the Sunday night spot and the public is pretty much split between these two teams that have been good to backers the past one and a half years, though the Chiefs have attracted slightly more support on other bet-tracking sites.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are also split on this game, with those preferring Denver snatching up lines of -3 that were available earlier.
Dave Tuley's take: This is a key game with both teams chasing Oakland in the AFC West. This game is lined right, but if forced to make a call, I would take the Chiefs plus the all-important hook at +3.5. I'm just not confident enough in the Chiefs' offense to mount long scoring drives against the Denver D (ranked No. 4 in yards allowed per game and giving up just 18.9 points per game).
This really should be a defensive battle. Kansas City is No. 25 in yards allowed, but only gives up 18.7 points per game and should do well against the Broncos' No. 27 offense, especially with Justin Houston playing more of a role. I would look under, but the oddsmakers have rightly set this total very low.
The pick: Lean to Kansas City +3.5 (lean to Under 39).
Rufus Peabody:
Kansas City has been a very odd team this year. They've often been outplayed but still found a way to win; Week 11 was just the reverse. The Chiefs outgained Tampa Bay by 0.9 yards per play and had a season-best 65 percent play success rate. Yet they threw an interception in the end zone and allowed Tampa Bay to convert 11-of-16 third downs. We are not high on Denver this year, largely because we expected some regression to the mean from the Denver defense, and because we didn't expect much from the Denver offense. However, the Denver defense was picked apart by Drew Brees in Week 10. Coming off a bye, the Broncos should be a 3.5-point favorite.
Massey-Peabody Line: Denver -3.5, Total: 40.4
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning:
Offensive touchdowns are a true grind for the Chiefs of late and it doesn't figure to get any easier Sunday night against the Broncos' rested defense. The Broncos rank second in the NFL allowing just 4.8 yards per play, and this will be as healthy as they've been all season. Meanwhile, The Chiefs will be without wide receiver Jeremy Maclin again this week.
The Broncos' offense is still searching for a spark with quarterback Trevor Siemian. Unfortunately, their run game has taken a step back with the loss of C.J. Anderson. The Denver offense sits at 27th in the NFL in yards per play and the Chiefs' defense has yet to hit their peak as Justin Houston is finally in the fold. Look for a conservative field goal battle Sunday night.
Play: Lean to Under
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Denver 20, Kansas City 18
The pick: Kansas City and the Under
John Parolin's prop bet picks:
215.5 passing yards by Alex Smith (O/U -110)
Since Alex Smith joined the Chiefs before the 2013 season, he's played the Broncos six times. A 1-5 record in those starts suggests he hasn't cracked Denver's code, and offers a look at how Smith has played when trailing. The Denver offense registered double-digit leads in the first half in four straight games to open the "Alex Smith era" (three of which were "overs").
But the two games last year bear the most resemblance to the current state of these teams. Peyton Manning offered little more than name recognition last season, and Kansas City's Week 2 game reflected the shift in unit strength. An improved defense plus Denver's offensive decline left little need for a volume passing game, as Kansas City didn't trail until there were fewer than 30 seconds left in the game. Smith finished with 191 yards, and a similar story played out in Week 10. Manning and Brock Osweiler each got reps in an ugly game, with the Chiefs carrying a 19-0 lead into halftime and Smith finishing with 204 passing yards. Like last year's contests, this should be a game dictated by strong defenses on both sides -- and Trevor Siemian is closer to last year's Broncos quarterbacks than the "real" Manning offenses that put Smith in a deep hole early in his Chiefs career.
The play: Under
18 points by the Chiefs (O/U -110)
This is not a particularly high total. The Broncos' defense, as good as it has been, has allowed at least 19 points in seven of the 10 games this season. But evaluating who did it and who didn't matters here, with a quarterback in Smith who is not generally described as explosive.
Here are the quarterbacks whose teams hit the over and their Total QBR ranks this season: Cam Newton (19th, but in his first game of the season after winning league MVP last year), Andrew Luck (8th), Matt Ryan (3rd), Philip Rivers (10th, twice), Derek Carr (11th) and Drew Brees (4th). All of those quarterbacks have remained effective this season while still shouldering the vast majority of the offensive responsibilities. The three quarterbacks whose teams have been under? Andy Dalton (22nd in QBR), Jameis Winston (14th) and Brock Osweiler (27th) -- a group in which Smith (18th) belongs.
The play: Under
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 12 games, including the Kansas City-Denver Sunday night matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
Total: Opened 39.5; now 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent Kansas City
Public perception: This game was flexed to the Sunday night spot and the public is pretty much split between these two teams that have been good to backers the past one and a half years, though the Chiefs have attracted slightly more support on other bet-tracking sites.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are also split on this game, with those preferring Denver snatching up lines of -3 that were available earlier.
Dave Tuley's take: This is a key game with both teams chasing Oakland in the AFC West. This game is lined right, but if forced to make a call, I would take the Chiefs plus the all-important hook at +3.5. I'm just not confident enough in the Chiefs' offense to mount long scoring drives against the Denver D (ranked No. 4 in yards allowed per game and giving up just 18.9 points per game).
This really should be a defensive battle. Kansas City is No. 25 in yards allowed, but only gives up 18.7 points per game and should do well against the Broncos' No. 27 offense, especially with Justin Houston playing more of a role. I would look under, but the oddsmakers have rightly set this total very low.
The pick: Lean to Kansas City +3.5 (lean to Under 39).
Rufus Peabody:
Kansas City has been a very odd team this year. They've often been outplayed but still found a way to win; Week 11 was just the reverse. The Chiefs outgained Tampa Bay by 0.9 yards per play and had a season-best 65 percent play success rate. Yet they threw an interception in the end zone and allowed Tampa Bay to convert 11-of-16 third downs. We are not high on Denver this year, largely because we expected some regression to the mean from the Denver defense, and because we didn't expect much from the Denver offense. However, the Denver defense was picked apart by Drew Brees in Week 10. Coming off a bye, the Broncos should be a 3.5-point favorite.
Massey-Peabody Line: Denver -3.5, Total: 40.4
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning:
Offensive touchdowns are a true grind for the Chiefs of late and it doesn't figure to get any easier Sunday night against the Broncos' rested defense. The Broncos rank second in the NFL allowing just 4.8 yards per play, and this will be as healthy as they've been all season. Meanwhile, The Chiefs will be without wide receiver Jeremy Maclin again this week.
The Broncos' offense is still searching for a spark with quarterback Trevor Siemian. Unfortunately, their run game has taken a step back with the loss of C.J. Anderson. The Denver offense sits at 27th in the NFL in yards per play and the Chiefs' defense has yet to hit their peak as Justin Houston is finally in the fold. Look for a conservative field goal battle Sunday night.
Play: Lean to Under
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Denver 20, Kansas City 18
The pick: Kansas City and the Under
John Parolin's prop bet picks:
215.5 passing yards by Alex Smith (O/U -110)
Since Alex Smith joined the Chiefs before the 2013 season, he's played the Broncos six times. A 1-5 record in those starts suggests he hasn't cracked Denver's code, and offers a look at how Smith has played when trailing. The Denver offense registered double-digit leads in the first half in four straight games to open the "Alex Smith era" (three of which were "overs").
But the two games last year bear the most resemblance to the current state of these teams. Peyton Manning offered little more than name recognition last season, and Kansas City's Week 2 game reflected the shift in unit strength. An improved defense plus Denver's offensive decline left little need for a volume passing game, as Kansas City didn't trail until there were fewer than 30 seconds left in the game. Smith finished with 191 yards, and a similar story played out in Week 10. Manning and Brock Osweiler each got reps in an ugly game, with the Chiefs carrying a 19-0 lead into halftime and Smith finishing with 204 passing yards. Like last year's contests, this should be a game dictated by strong defenses on both sides -- and Trevor Siemian is closer to last year's Broncos quarterbacks than the "real" Manning offenses that put Smith in a deep hole early in his Chiefs career.
The play: Under
18 points by the Chiefs (O/U -110)
This is not a particularly high total. The Broncos' defense, as good as it has been, has allowed at least 19 points in seven of the 10 games this season. But evaluating who did it and who didn't matters here, with a quarterback in Smith who is not generally described as explosive.
Here are the quarterbacks whose teams hit the over and their Total QBR ranks this season: Cam Newton (19th, but in his first game of the season after winning league MVP last year), Andrew Luck (8th), Matt Ryan (3rd), Philip Rivers (10th, twice), Derek Carr (11th) and Drew Brees (4th). All of those quarterbacks have remained effective this season while still shouldering the vast majority of the offensive responsibilities. The three quarterbacks whose teams have been under? Andy Dalton (22nd in QBR), Jameis Winston (14th) and Brock Osweiler (27th) -- a group in which Smith (18th) belongs.
The play: Under
