How To Bet Monday Night's Eagles-Packers NFL Gam

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[h=1]How to bet Green Bay-Philadelphia[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER

ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 12 games, including Monday night's Green Bay-Philadelphia matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.

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Spread: Opened Philadelphia -3; now Philadelphia -3.5
Total: Opened 48; now 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent Philadelphia

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Public perception: The public is mostly split on this game. Other bet-tracking sites have the Packers getting more support (especially when the line has gone up to 4).
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps grabbed Philadelphia -3 but are more split now.
Dave Tuley's take: Both teams started the season on fire but have cooled off considerably. This matchup comes down to who you have more faith in to right the ship: Aaron Rodgers or Carson Wentz. Although I've been happy to fade Green Bay as faves on occasion so far this season, I do like Rodgers getting points here. The Packers' offense continues to put up points (25.7 points per game), but their problem has been on defense (allowing 27.6 points per game). The Eagles aren't clicking like they were early in the season -- 21.3 points per game since their 3-0 start. Wentz and the Eagles were a nice early-season story, but I believe their struggles continue here. If they do pull out the win, I'll take my chances that it's not by more than a field goal.
The pick: Packers +3.5*

Erin Rynning:
Certainly one key aspect of deciphering this contest is figuring the lesser of two evils with the Packers' porous pass defense or the Eagles' pass offense. The common denominator of the Packers' four-game skid is the secondary that can't get out of its own way, but will the rookie Wentz and an unreliable Eagles receiving crew be able to exploit the weakness? My numbers are right on the current side and total, making the Monday night affair a tricky handicap.
Play: Pass

Rufus Peabody:
Although Philadelphia lost in Seattle last weekend, they actually played the better game, when we control for home-field advantage and opponent strength. While Philadelphia averaged only 4.3 yards per play (compared to Seattle's 7.4), their play success rate of 53 percent dwarfed Seattle's (42 percent). Seattle got their yards in big chunks, but was less consistent. And as I've said before, play success -- the ability to consistently move the ball -- is more predictive than chunk plays. Green Bay's offense played just fine against Washington, but it was defense that was a huge problem. Washington's 8.62 yards per offensive play is the third highest of any team all season.
Massey-Peabody Line: Philadelphia -4.0, Total: 46.6
Pick: Pass

Mike Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 25, Green Bay 22
The pick: Green Bay -- GB +4


John Parolin's prop bets
285.5 passing yards by Aaron Rodgers (O/U -110)
The Packers' offense is barely using the run game as even a token threat anymore -- Green Bay has rushed on 28 percent of plays from scrimmage this season, lowest in the league. Rodgers has thrown for more than 700 yards over his last two games (both on the road), hitting at least 286 in five of his last six games overall. The Eagles' defense had allowed fewer than 275 yards in every game this season until last week against the Seahawks.
That seems alarming, until you realize the impact of Rodgers' workload. He's averaging 41 attempts per game, and even using Philadelphia's 7.2 yards per attempt average gets Rodgers over 295 yards. Plus, the media narrative of his down year belies the improvement they've shown of late -- since Week 7, only Kirk Cousins has more passing yards than Rodgers. He may not win the game, but this is too conservative a total for a passing game this historically effective in a year when they've relied on it this much.
The play: Over
23.5 completions by Carson Wentz (O/U -110)

With opening games against the Browns and Bears, the Eagles were in prime position to ease Wentz into action during his rookie season. Wentz completed at least 24 passes only once in his first six games but has passed the mark in three of his last four contests. An encouraging development for Wentz is whom he's done it against -- he hit overs against the Cowboys and Giants in that span (as well as the Falcons) and finished one shy of an additional one playing at Seattle. He's trending in a good direction for an over, and the Packers should oblige.
The Packers' defense has allowed 92 completions since Week 8, ninth most in the NFL. In that span, Green Bay has allowed opponents to complete 73.9 percent of their passes 10 yards or fewer downfield -- the majority of what the Eagles have asked of their rookie quarterback. With a secondary decimated by injuries, the Packers' defense is susceptible.
The play: Over


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