Week 12 NFL betting takeaways
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 12 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks as if one team is going to coast to victory, but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leading to them cry "Bad beat!" Of course, there are also the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kinds of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 12 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should have covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
Tennessee (-6.5) in 27-21 non-covering win at Chicago
I'm almost reluctant to put this here, as this line opened lower and only those who laid a bad number with Tennessee -6.5 got burned, but the Titans were in total control of this game with a 27-7 lead with 13:45 to play and Chicago's offense not showing many signs of life. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">However, Matt Barkley threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns to get within the closing number. In fact, he had several passes dropped, including two in the end zone in the final minute, or else the Bears might have pulled the outright upset. Despite the near collapse, the Titans continue to improve and are now in the midst of the AFC South race. Of course, I've written several times that the Titans' problem isn't with games like this but when trying to get over the hump against the Texans and Colts.</offer>
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee played 14 points better than Chicago.
Denver (-3.5) in 30-27 home overtime loss to Kansas City (under 40)
This game is hard to categorize, as the Chiefs were actually the right side for most of the game. The bad beat is mostly for the game going over 40 when it was a stone-cold under most of the night, however I feel I also have to call it a bad beat for Denver backers in regards to the money line and teasers.
The Broncos led 17-16 with just over three minutes to play and were trying to run out the clock. The Chiefs had used their last timeout when Trevor Siemian hit Bernie Fowler for a first down, but Fowler took it 76 yards for a touchdown and a spread-covering 8-point lead at 24-16. If Fowler had given himself up like he should have, the Broncos could have run the clock out or left the Chiefs with a lot less time to mount their comeback. Instead, Alex Smith marched the Chiefs 75 yards in 13 plays and 2:48 of game time to tie the game on his 3-yard TD pass to Tyreek Hill with 12 seconds left in regulation. In addition, Denver teaser players would have still won (and money-line wagers probably pushed) if Broncos coach Gary Kubiak had punted instead of having Brandon McManus attempt a 62-yard field goal with just over a minute left in overtime. But his miss led to Cairo Santos' game-winning 34-yarder.
Both defenses, especially rushing the passer, dominated early, and it's amazing this game ended 30-27 (and that both starting quarterbacks survived). Both teams should do just fine against lesser competition during their postseason push.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
Thursday: Pittsburgh (-8.5) in 28-7 win at Indianapolis
The Steelers jumped out to a 7-0 lead on their opening drive, and even though the Colts pulled to within 14-7 early in the second quarter, the Steelers answered right back with one of Antonio Brown's three TD receptions from Ben Roethlisberger, and they coasted from there. While the better team clearly won and covered, I felt Indy QB Scott Tolzien deserved better. He had a couple of dropped passes, most notable the one by T.J. Hilton, and a first-and-goal from the Pittsburgh 2-yard line late in the first half, where the Colts turned the ball over on downs. Indianapolis had its chances to get back in the game.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Pittsburgh played 30 points better than Indianapolis.
Jacksonville (+8.5) in 28-21 loss at Buffalo
This is the kind of game that the Jaguars often let slip away, but they held on for the cover on the road. The Bills never led by more than the spread, though it did look a little scary for Jacksonville bettors when Tyrod Taylor's 7-yard TD run put Buffalo ahead 20-14 with three minutes left in the third quarter. However, the Jaguars responded with a seven-play, 65-yard drive to regain the lead at 21-20. The under 45 was a bit of a bad beat as the Bills led just 7-6 at halftime. LeSean McCoycontinues to be the key to the Bills' offense, though the return of Sammy Watkinsadds another dimension.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Jacksonville played 2 points better than Buffalo.
Atlanta (-4) in 38-19 home win over Arizona
While the Cardinals stuck around in the first half and led 7-0 and 10-7, their defense never looked as if it would be able to contain the Falcons, and Atlanta pulled away in the second half. Arizona mostly took away Julio Jones (four catches, 35 yards), but the Falcons spread the wealth with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman both running for TDs, and eight players catching passes from Matt Ryan. And it was scary how easily Taylor Gabriel ran through the Cardinals' defense on his two TD catch-and-runs. The Atlanta defense doesn't get much credit, but it did a decent job of containing David Johnson (58 rushing yards), especially without Desmond Trufant. Johnson did gain another 103 yards receiving, but that's preferable to giving up big plays to the Cardinals' receivers. In that regard, the Falcons' D did its job in protecting the lead.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Atlanta played 16 points better than Arizona.
New Orleans (-8) in 49-21 home win over Los Angeles
This started as a shootout (and the over 45.5 was rarely in doubt, as these two teams passed that by halftime, with the Saints leading 28-21), but New Orleans coasted in the second half on the way to a rout. The Saints even threw in an unnecessary trick play with WR Willie Snead throwing a 50-yard TD pass to RB Tim Hightower (it seemed that would be better saved for a more crucial situation against a better team). The Rams' pass rush got to Drew Brees a couple of times, but the Saints mostly overcame that. St. Louis' offense was overmatched, but Jared Goff did show signs of improvement and tossed three TD passes.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New Orleans played 10 points better than Los Angeles.
San Diego (-2.5) in 21-13 win at Houston
The Texans scored first on a Brock Osweiler 1-yard TD run early in the second quarter, but it was all Chargers after that as they led 14-7 by halftime and then extended that to 21-10 until very late in the game. The Texans' only chance was to have Nick Novak kick a 45-yard field goal with 14 seconds to play and then recover an onside kick (which they did) and then throw two desperation Hail Marys (which weren't answered). It was fitting for it to end that way, as the Chargers rarely win easily, but they dominated this game enough that it did leave one wondering how dangerous of a playoff contender they could be if they hadn't let so many close games slip away.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Diego played 13 points better than Houston.
Tampa Bay (+5.5) in 14-5 home win over Seattle
The Buccaneers set the tone with a 14-play, 78-yard opening touchdown drive on Seattle's celebrated defense, added another TD on their next possession and coasted from there. Even after getting a safety and a field goal early in the second quarter, the Seahawks never got within one score of tying the game or two TDs from a cover. While the Buccaneers' offense did its part early, the real story was the defense holding Seattle without a touchdown and to just 245 yards on the day. This was a big blow to the prevailing opinion that the Seahawks were gaining on the Cowboys in the race for NFC supremacy, but they'll be OK as they still have a three-game lead in the NFC West and are half a game ahead of Detroit and Atlanta for the NFC's No. 2 seed.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tampa Bay played 13 points better than Seattle.
New York Jets (+9.5) in 22-17 loss to New England
The Patriots were never winning by more than the inflated 9.5-point spread, so the Jets were clearly the right side, though their money-line backers of around +400 are probably feeling this should be in the bad beat category. The Patriots didn't take the lead for good until Tom Brady's second TD pass to Malcolm Mitchell with 1:56 to play. New England did just enough to win and stayed atop the AFC with Oakland at 9-2. The Jets showed that with a little luck they could be better than their 3-8 record. Ryan Fitzpatrick played well in his return to the starting lineup, but also lost a fumble on the Jets' final drive.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York Jets played 0.4 points better than New England.
50/50 ATS Results
Thursday: Washington (+7) in spread-covering 31-26 loss at Dallas
Cowboys bettors could argue that they had the right side as Dallas dominated the first half and led 17-3 at one point, and the Redskins needed Kirk Cousins' 8-yard TD pass to Jordan Reed to get in the back door with 1:53 to play. However, the Redskins were never behind by more than one score of the spread and also got within the number at 24-19 with 9:22 left in the fourth quarter. The Cowboys continue to impress with the balanced attack of Ezekiel Elliott (97 yards, 2 TDs) and Dak Prescott (195 yards passing, 1 TD, no interceptions, plus a TD run himself) behind the best offensive line in football. I still have reservations about the Dallas D, as it gave up 505 yards.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas played 13 points better than Washington.
Thursday: Detroit (-2.5) in 16-13 home win over Minnesota
This clearly could have gone either way as the game was tied at 7-7, 10-10 and 13-13. The Lions took the final lead and got the cover on Matt Prater's 40-yard FG as time expired. These teams were very even (including Detroit narrowly winning the yardage battle 308-306 and first downs 18-17). The difference was the one turnover: Darius Slay's interception that set up the winning kick.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Minnesota played 2 points better than Detroit.
Baltimore (-3.5) in 19-14 win over Cincinnati
Backers of the Ravens could argue they had the right side as Baltimore dominated the first half and led 16-3 at halftime. However, the Bengals kept threatening to cover the spread in the fourth quarter as one drive ended with a Mike Nugent 36-yard FG to cut the lead to 19-12 instead of a TD that would have pulled the Bengals within 3 points, and their last drive ended with an Andy Dalton fumble when they were trailing by just 7. (Note: Nugent also missed an extra point that would have helped those with Cincinnati +4 get a push on the Ravens' intentional safety when time expired.) Baltimore is battling Pittsburgh for the AFC North title, but its offensive limitations are a concern as you can't go far when your offensive MVP is your kicker (as great as Justin Tucker is).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Baltimore played 0.3 points better than Cincinnati.
New York Giants (-7) in 27-13 win at Cleveland
The Giants were mostly in control of the game from a straight-up standpoint, but the spread was more in doubt. The Giants did lead 14-3 in the second quarter, but the Browns cut it to 14-6 at halftime, and it stayed there throughout the third quarter. Early in the fourth, the Browns were driving when John McCown fumbled, and it was returned 43 yards for a TD by Jason Pierre-Paul. Robbie Gould missed the PAT, so the Browns actually answered right back with a TD to get to within a push at 20-13 before the Giants responded with Eli Manning's second TD pass to Odell Beckham Jr. for the final margin. The Browns did move the ball most of the day but were doomed by their three turnovers. The Giants did enough to get their sixth straight win.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York Giants played 5 points better than Cleveland.
San Francisco (+7) in 31-24 spread-covering push at Miami
Both sides could claim to being the right side, which makes it a 50/50 game in the end. The Dolphins led 17-7 early in the second half, and then after the 49ers cut it to 17-14, they pulled ahead by 31-14 by early in the fourth quarter. But the 49ers fought back again with a TD, and then a Phil Dawson FG with 2:15 to play, to get to within a push at 31-24 (and within the number for those who bet San Francisco +7.5 or in contests like the Westgate SuperContest). After forcing a three-and-out, the 49ers had a chance to force overtime, but Colin Kaepernick was stopped 2 yards short of the goal line as time expired. The Dolphins won their sixth straight to get in the AFC playoff picture, but it's not a good sign that their run offense struggled against the 49ers' usually porous run D and they were taken to the final gun by San Francisco, losers of 10 straight.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Francisco played 2 points better than Miami.
Carolina (+3.5) in 35-32 loss at Oakland
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Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 12 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks as if one team is going to coast to victory, but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leading to them cry "Bad beat!" Of course, there are also the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kinds of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 12 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should have covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
I'm almost reluctant to put this here, as this line opened lower and only those who laid a bad number with Tennessee -6.5 got burned, but the Titans were in total control of this game with a 27-7 lead with 13:45 to play and Chicago's offense not showing many signs of life. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">However, Matt Barkley threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns to get within the closing number. In fact, he had several passes dropped, including two in the end zone in the final minute, or else the Bears might have pulled the outright upset. Despite the near collapse, the Titans continue to improve and are now in the midst of the AFC South race. Of course, I've written several times that the Titans' problem isn't with games like this but when trying to get over the hump against the Texans and Colts.</offer>
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee played 14 points better than Chicago.
This game is hard to categorize, as the Chiefs were actually the right side for most of the game. The bad beat is mostly for the game going over 40 when it was a stone-cold under most of the night, however I feel I also have to call it a bad beat for Denver backers in regards to the money line and teasers.
The Broncos led 17-16 with just over three minutes to play and were trying to run out the clock. The Chiefs had used their last timeout when Trevor Siemian hit Bernie Fowler for a first down, but Fowler took it 76 yards for a touchdown and a spread-covering 8-point lead at 24-16. If Fowler had given himself up like he should have, the Broncos could have run the clock out or left the Chiefs with a lot less time to mount their comeback. Instead, Alex Smith marched the Chiefs 75 yards in 13 plays and 2:48 of game time to tie the game on his 3-yard TD pass to Tyreek Hill with 12 seconds left in regulation. In addition, Denver teaser players would have still won (and money-line wagers probably pushed) if Broncos coach Gary Kubiak had punted instead of having Brandon McManus attempt a 62-yard field goal with just over a minute left in overtime. But his miss led to Cairo Santos' game-winning 34-yarder.
Both defenses, especially rushing the passer, dominated early, and it's amazing this game ended 30-27 (and that both starting quarterbacks survived). Both teams should do just fine against lesser competition during their postseason push.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
The Steelers jumped out to a 7-0 lead on their opening drive, and even though the Colts pulled to within 14-7 early in the second quarter, the Steelers answered right back with one of Antonio Brown's three TD receptions from Ben Roethlisberger, and they coasted from there. While the better team clearly won and covered, I felt Indy QB Scott Tolzien deserved better. He had a couple of dropped passes, most notable the one by T.J. Hilton, and a first-and-goal from the Pittsburgh 2-yard line late in the first half, where the Colts turned the ball over on downs. Indianapolis had its chances to get back in the game.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Pittsburgh played 30 points better than Indianapolis.
This is the kind of game that the Jaguars often let slip away, but they held on for the cover on the road. The Bills never led by more than the spread, though it did look a little scary for Jacksonville bettors when Tyrod Taylor's 7-yard TD run put Buffalo ahead 20-14 with three minutes left in the third quarter. However, the Jaguars responded with a seven-play, 65-yard drive to regain the lead at 21-20. The under 45 was a bit of a bad beat as the Bills led just 7-6 at halftime. LeSean McCoycontinues to be the key to the Bills' offense, though the return of Sammy Watkinsadds another dimension.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Jacksonville played 2 points better than Buffalo.
While the Cardinals stuck around in the first half and led 7-0 and 10-7, their defense never looked as if it would be able to contain the Falcons, and Atlanta pulled away in the second half. Arizona mostly took away Julio Jones (four catches, 35 yards), but the Falcons spread the wealth with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman both running for TDs, and eight players catching passes from Matt Ryan. And it was scary how easily Taylor Gabriel ran through the Cardinals' defense on his two TD catch-and-runs. The Atlanta defense doesn't get much credit, but it did a decent job of containing David Johnson (58 rushing yards), especially without Desmond Trufant. Johnson did gain another 103 yards receiving, but that's preferable to giving up big plays to the Cardinals' receivers. In that regard, the Falcons' D did its job in protecting the lead.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Atlanta played 16 points better than Arizona.
This started as a shootout (and the over 45.5 was rarely in doubt, as these two teams passed that by halftime, with the Saints leading 28-21), but New Orleans coasted in the second half on the way to a rout. The Saints even threw in an unnecessary trick play with WR Willie Snead throwing a 50-yard TD pass to RB Tim Hightower (it seemed that would be better saved for a more crucial situation against a better team). The Rams' pass rush got to Drew Brees a couple of times, but the Saints mostly overcame that. St. Louis' offense was overmatched, but Jared Goff did show signs of improvement and tossed three TD passes.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New Orleans played 10 points better than Los Angeles.
The Texans scored first on a Brock Osweiler 1-yard TD run early in the second quarter, but it was all Chargers after that as they led 14-7 by halftime and then extended that to 21-10 until very late in the game. The Texans' only chance was to have Nick Novak kick a 45-yard field goal with 14 seconds to play and then recover an onside kick (which they did) and then throw two desperation Hail Marys (which weren't answered). It was fitting for it to end that way, as the Chargers rarely win easily, but they dominated this game enough that it did leave one wondering how dangerous of a playoff contender they could be if they hadn't let so many close games slip away.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Diego played 13 points better than Houston.
The Buccaneers set the tone with a 14-play, 78-yard opening touchdown drive on Seattle's celebrated defense, added another TD on their next possession and coasted from there. Even after getting a safety and a field goal early in the second quarter, the Seahawks never got within one score of tying the game or two TDs from a cover. While the Buccaneers' offense did its part early, the real story was the defense holding Seattle without a touchdown and to just 245 yards on the day. This was a big blow to the prevailing opinion that the Seahawks were gaining on the Cowboys in the race for NFC supremacy, but they'll be OK as they still have a three-game lead in the NFC West and are half a game ahead of Detroit and Atlanta for the NFC's No. 2 seed.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tampa Bay played 13 points better than Seattle.
The Patriots were never winning by more than the inflated 9.5-point spread, so the Jets were clearly the right side, though their money-line backers of around +400 are probably feeling this should be in the bad beat category. The Patriots didn't take the lead for good until Tom Brady's second TD pass to Malcolm Mitchell with 1:56 to play. New England did just enough to win and stayed atop the AFC with Oakland at 9-2. The Jets showed that with a little luck they could be better than their 3-8 record. Ryan Fitzpatrick played well in his return to the starting lineup, but also lost a fumble on the Jets' final drive.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York Jets played 0.4 points better than New England.
50/50 ATS Results
Cowboys bettors could argue that they had the right side as Dallas dominated the first half and led 17-3 at one point, and the Redskins needed Kirk Cousins' 8-yard TD pass to Jordan Reed to get in the back door with 1:53 to play. However, the Redskins were never behind by more than one score of the spread and also got within the number at 24-19 with 9:22 left in the fourth quarter. The Cowboys continue to impress with the balanced attack of Ezekiel Elliott (97 yards, 2 TDs) and Dak Prescott (195 yards passing, 1 TD, no interceptions, plus a TD run himself) behind the best offensive line in football. I still have reservations about the Dallas D, as it gave up 505 yards.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas played 13 points better than Washington.
This clearly could have gone either way as the game was tied at 7-7, 10-10 and 13-13. The Lions took the final lead and got the cover on Matt Prater's 40-yard FG as time expired. These teams were very even (including Detroit narrowly winning the yardage battle 308-306 and first downs 18-17). The difference was the one turnover: Darius Slay's interception that set up the winning kick.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Minnesota played 2 points better than Detroit.
Backers of the Ravens could argue they had the right side as Baltimore dominated the first half and led 16-3 at halftime. However, the Bengals kept threatening to cover the spread in the fourth quarter as one drive ended with a Mike Nugent 36-yard FG to cut the lead to 19-12 instead of a TD that would have pulled the Bengals within 3 points, and their last drive ended with an Andy Dalton fumble when they were trailing by just 7. (Note: Nugent also missed an extra point that would have helped those with Cincinnati +4 get a push on the Ravens' intentional safety when time expired.) Baltimore is battling Pittsburgh for the AFC North title, but its offensive limitations are a concern as you can't go far when your offensive MVP is your kicker (as great as Justin Tucker is).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Baltimore played 0.3 points better than Cincinnati.
The Giants were mostly in control of the game from a straight-up standpoint, but the spread was more in doubt. The Giants did lead 14-3 in the second quarter, but the Browns cut it to 14-6 at halftime, and it stayed there throughout the third quarter. Early in the fourth, the Browns were driving when John McCown fumbled, and it was returned 43 yards for a TD by Jason Pierre-Paul. Robbie Gould missed the PAT, so the Browns actually answered right back with a TD to get to within a push at 20-13 before the Giants responded with Eli Manning's second TD pass to Odell Beckham Jr. for the final margin. The Browns did move the ball most of the day but were doomed by their three turnovers. The Giants did enough to get their sixth straight win.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York Giants played 5 points better than Cleveland.
Both sides could claim to being the right side, which makes it a 50/50 game in the end. The Dolphins led 17-7 early in the second half, and then after the 49ers cut it to 17-14, they pulled ahead by 31-14 by early in the fourth quarter. But the 49ers fought back again with a TD, and then a Phil Dawson FG with 2:15 to play, to get to within a push at 31-24 (and within the number for those who bet San Francisco +7.5 or in contests like the Westgate SuperContest). After forcing a three-and-out, the 49ers had a chance to force overtime, but Colin Kaepernick was stopped 2 yards short of the goal line as time expired. The Dolphins won their sixth straight to get in the AFC playoff picture, but it's not a good sign that their run offense struggled against the 49ers' usually porous run D and they were taken to the final gun by San Francisco, losers of 10 straight.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Francisco played 2 points better than Miami.
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This could have landed the Panthers in the bad beat category for the fourth straight week for losing on the money line (especially as they led 32-24 with 13:26 to play after Cam Newton's 44-yard TD pass to Kelvin Benjamin), but it would have also been a bad beat for the Raiders not to at least get a push (a lot of bettors were able to get Oakland -3 as well as Westgate SuperContest players) after leading 24-7 at halftime and looking like they were going to win in a rout. So I relegate it to the 50/50 category as this obviously could have gone either way. After leaving with an injured pinky on the second play of the third quarter (while still leading 24-7), Carr returned to rally the Raiders on his 12-yard TD pass to Clive Wafford and two-point conversion pass to Seth Roberts to tie the game at 32-32 with 8:37 to play. Sebastian Janikowski set the winning margin with his 23-yard field goal with 1:45 left, though the outcome still wasn't decided until Khalil Mack's strip-sack of Cam Newton (after an uncharacteristic drop by TE Greg Olsen). The Raiders' offense continues to impress, but their defense (despite some big plays) is still a concern.
-Peabody numbers say: Oakland played 4 points better than Carolina.
</article>-Peabody numbers say: Oakland played 4 points better than Carolina.
