Early betting notes on CFB title games

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[h=1]Early betting notes on CFB title games[/h]Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER

It's a slap in the face to the Big Ten (and every other conference), but the College Football Playoff committee doesn't respect the league's champion, and the oddsmakers know it. Either Wisconsin or Penn State will be crowned the Big Ten's best team via a time-honored process that every school in the league has approved and endorsed, yet the oddsmakers are telling us that the playoff committee will step in and overrule it.
That's the message the committee has delivered, and the oddsmakers have heard it loud and clear. Read on to see what the Westgate's numbers say about the Big Ten champion's chances of making the College Football Playoff compared with that of also-rans Ohio State and Michigan. We'll also provide some betting notes for all eight of Week 14's league title games.

[h=2]Conference title game betting notes[/h]Western Michigan Broncos (-18.5) vs. Ohio Bobcats
MAC Championship, Detroit
Western was outgained for the first time all year, but downed Toledo 55-35 and became the first MAC team to beat the Rockets by three scores since 2010. The Broncos are a robust 9-3 ATS this year and have beaten Ohio by <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">at least three touchdowns the past two years. It is not a stretch to call this tight-knit collection of talent the best team in MAC history. The Bobcats are 3-0 as an underdog this year, but had covered just two of their past nine as double-digit dogs entering the season. Underdogs are 11-8 in the second-longest running conference championship game, including a 1-2 ATS record in losing efforts from the underdog Bobcats in Frank Solich's three title game appearances.</offer>
Washington Huskies (-7) vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Pac-12 Championship, Santa Clara, California
This is the first appearance for either school in the six-year history of the Pac-12 title game. The North division has won all five matchups, four by at least 18 points. Utah scored with a minute and a half left to drop Colorado's record against the number to 10-2, while Washington drew its own ATS ledger even at 6-6 with an Apple Cup rout as six-point chalk last weekend. Washington has won and covered six straight meetings with the Buffs, though the schools haven't met since 2014.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-7.5)
Conference USA Championship, Bowling Green, Kentucky
Another barnburner on tap? Western Kentucky took last year's meeting 41-38 as a three-point favorite, and the Bulldogs returned the favor in Week 6 this year with a 55-52 win as field-goal chalk. Louisiana Tech led that game by 25 in the third quarter before a furious WKU rally fell just short. These teams sailed over the total of 62.5 last year and 69 this year, though last year's C-USA title game total of 76.5 was just too tall for Western Kentucky and Southern Miss in a 45-28 Hilltoppers win.
Temple Owls at Navy Midshipmen (-3)
AAC Championship, Annapolis, Maryland
Temple dropped a 24-13 decision to Houston as a five-point underdog in the inaugural AAC title game last year, and now again finds itself the East division champ and road team in the championship game.
Navy covered the opening number for the fifth straight week with a 75-31 destruction of SMU, clinching home-field advantage for the title game. But no team is hotter at the window than the Owls, who have covered 11 straight since opening the season with an upset loss to Army. Temple has impressively outgained nine straight opponents by nearly 200 yards per game. The last meeting was in 2014, a 31-24 Navy win as three-point favorite. Temple defensive coordinator Phil Snow has had just that one look at the Mids' option attack, but did face Army twice while at Eastern Michigan from 2010-12.
San Diego State Aztecs (-7) at Wyoming Cowboys
MWC Championship, Laramie, Wyoming
These teams met two weeks ago in Laramie. The Aztecs opened around a touchdown road favorite and saw sharp action, with the price eventually settling at -10. Wyoming never led until taking a 34-27 lead with just over a minute remaining. The Aztecs botched the kickoff and took possession at their own 1-yard line, but went 99 yards for a score with no time on the clock. Rocky Long went for two and the Pokes held. San Diego State was a 23-point favorite in last November's 38-3 win over Wyoming and six-point chalk in a 27-24 home win over Air Force in last year's MWC title game.
Clemson Tigers (-10) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
ACC Championship, Orlando, Florida
Virginia Tech had covered five straight in this series until Dabo Swinney arrived at Clemson. The Tigers have now won and covered the past three, including the 2011 ACC title game. The schools haven't met since another Tigers win in 2012. Both teams are 6-6 ATS this year, and each covered a big number convincingly in a rout of a cross-state rival last week. Clemson covered last year's ACC title game as a 4.5-point favorite in a 45-37 win over North Carolina. The Tigers are 2-1 against the three teams they've played with a winning conference record, and all three have been tight games.
Wisconsin Badgers (-3) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Big Ten Championship, Indianapolis
Underdogs and overs both cashed in the first four Big Ten championship games, before three-point chalk Michigan State's 16-13 win over Iowa broke the streak last year. Wisconsin is making its fourth appearance, the most of any team. The Badgers are 9-2 ATS this year, while Penn State has covered seven straight games with at least a touchdown to spare. These two programs haven't met since the current coaching staffs arrived.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-24) vs. Florida Gators
SEC Championship, Atlanta
Florida backers will need the Gators to manufacture some offense against an Alabama defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown since Texas A&M's first second-half drive ... 18 quarters ago. Bama held Auburn to 180 yards and seven first downs in a 30-12 Iron Bowl win, the same numbers the Tide allowed Florida in last year's SEC Championship Game. The Gators covered that game, a 29-15 loss, as 17-point underdogs thanks to an early punt return touchdown and a long pass play late in the game. That was the Florida's only cover during its current five-game series losing streak. Florida has seen its total yardage versus Alabama decrease in each of those meetings: 335, 281, 222, 200, 180. Last week's 31-13 loss to Florida State means that the Gators have gone under the total past five games.

[h=2]Movers and shakers[/h]The Westgate oddsmakers must think they've got the playoff committee figured out, because only 11 teams remain on the board. The current betting order, along with last week's price:
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
TEAMLAST WEEKCURRENT
Alabama5-75-7
Ohio State2-12-1
Clemson8-16-1
Washington12-18-1
Wisconsin12-120-1
Michigan12-120-1
Oklahoma20-130-1
Oklahoma State40-150-1
Penn State40-150-1
Colorado40-180-1
West Virginia1000-11000-1

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">Odds To Win CFB Playoff</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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Wisconsin clinched the West division, beat an 8-3 rival pretty convincingly and is favored to claim the program's fourth Big Ten championship in seven years. Yet the Badgers saw their national title price rise from 12-1 to 20-1.
Every team outside the top four saw its price balloon this week. Colorado beat a tough team to clinch the Pac-12 South division, yet its price doubled. The Sooners are winners of eight straight, the last a decisive road demolition of a 9-1 top-10 team, and have another top-10 team left to play. The Westgate tea-leaf readers tell us that won't be enough, and they're likely spot on.
The Big Ten and all its member institutions say that the winner of the championship game is the league's champion, its best and most deserving team. The oddsmakers tell us that the playoff committee will absolutely thumb its nose at the conferences, denouncing and demeaning this notion of a champion emerging from a season-long test. That's the takeaway from these numbers, along with the clear signal that the oddsmakers believe that the committee has already made up its mind, and the door is closed to anyone besides Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson and Washington, provided the last three win as favorites this week.
 

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