[h=1]Phil Steele's best Week 14 college football bets[/h]Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS). This year, the straight-up record is 76-33 (70 percent), but the ATS record is just 47-57-3 (45 percent).
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]No. 5 Washington Huskies (-7) vs. No. 9 Colorado Buffaloes[/h]9:00 p.m. ET Friday on Fox
Washington is plus-157 yards per game in Pac-12 play, and Colorado is a solid plus-108. Colorado has a balanced offense, averaging 201 rushing and 269 passing yards per game, and a defense that allows just 3.9 yards per carry and 49 percent completion. The Buffaloes have no real weakness except special teams (my No. 111). Washington also has a balanced offense and a top-notch defense, led by a secondary loaded with NFL-caliber players. Although both are solid, Washington is more talented in each area and has a large edge in special teams (my No. 41 unit). Jake Browning has a 40-7 ratio, while Sefo Liufau's is 11-4. Both teams have a thousand-yard running back, but the Huskies' top two combined for 1,915 yards (6.6), while the Buffaloes' top two combined for 1,482 (5.0). Washington's top three wide receivers have a combined 149 catches, and Colorado's have more, with 156. The Huskies receivers have 2,427 yards with a 16.2 average and 35 touchdowns. Colorado's top three combined for 2,100 yards with a 13.4 average and 16 touchdowns.
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Each is deserving to be here, but I'll side with the more explosive Huskies to get it done and wrap up a berth in the playoff.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 33, Colorado 21
[h=2]No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5) vs. No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers[/h]8:00 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX
If this game had been played in week five, Wisconsin would've been favored by at least 17, as the Badgers had impressive wins over LSU and Michigan State. Penn State was coming off a 49-10 loss at Michigan. Wisconsin has played well all season but over the past five games has played to an average game grade of just 93.9 in my computer ratings. Penn State was down its top five linebackers against Michigan but has gotten back two starters, in Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell, and the defense has some bite. The win over Ohio State gave Penn State a huge boost of confidence, and the Nittany Lions played to an average game grade of 105.6 the past five weeks. I give a large edge at quarterback to Penn State, with Trace McSorley having a 21-5 ratio, while the Badger duo has a 13-10 ratio. Penn State also has a large edge on special teams (my No. 30 vs. 88). Penn State has covered eight in a row.
ATS pick: Penn State (+)
Score: Penn State 23, Wisconsin 20
[h=2]Virginia Tech Hokies (+10) at No. 4 Clemson Tigers[/h]8:00 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC
Clemson is in the playoff with a win and doesn't need style points. Clemson has been an up-and-down team but is coming off one of its most impressive games, with a 622-to-218 yards edge over South Carolina. Virginia Tech comes into this game loose, with everything to gain and nothing to lose. While Clemson is plus-173 yards per game in ACC play, Virginia Tech is not far behind at plus-137. Clemson's defense has come to life the past few weeks, but that was against weak offenses. Virginia Tech's dangerous quarterback, Jerod Evans, leads the team with 713 yards rushing while accounting for 34 total touchdowns with just five interceptions. Watson has 38 total touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Clemson is the stronger team, but Bud Foster's defense and Evans' production will keep it close.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech (+)
Score: Clemson 31, Virginia Tech 27
[h=2]San Diego State Aztecs (-6.5) at Wyoming Cowboys[/h]7:45 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN
Two weeks ago, I had San Diego State (-9.5) over Wyoming. I knew the Aztecs had clinched their division but thought they would continue their dominating run through the Mountain West. They never trailed and led 27-20 early in the fourth quarter, with Wyoming needing to win to keep its title hopes alive. Wyoming tied it and then took its first lead with 1:07 remaining. San Diego State got a touchdown with no time left but went for two and was stopped. Now San Diego State has a Mountain West title to play for, is familiar with the site and is seeking revenge. Despite Wyoming's having a 98-yard edge in the prior meeting, San Diego State is still plus-138 yards per game in Mountain West play, while Wyoming is minus-20. Wyoming allows 226 rushing yards per game and faces a rested Donnel Pumphrey. After averaging 27.4 carries per game in nine games prior to clinching the division, Pumphrey has had just 17 and 18 carries the past two weeks. The Aztecs' defense was holding Mountain West foes to 158 yards per game below their season average prior to clinching, while Wyoming is allowing Mountain West foes 66 yards more than they average.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 38, Wyoming 27
[h=2]No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-12)[/h]<h 2="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></h>
12:30 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX
Four of the Power Five conferences have scheduled title games. The Big 12 has a regular-season game that is actually the best title game in the Power Five. You could argue that USC is the best team in the South of the Pac-12, Ohio State is the best team in the Big Ten, Florida is the fourth- or fifth-best team in the SEC, and Louisville and Florida State would both be favored over Virginia Tech. Here, we have the two best teams in the Big 12 in a legitimate title game. Last year, Oklahoma went on the road and won 58-23; now the Sooners are at home. Oklahoma is plus-109 yards per game and has faced my No. 11 toughest schedule, while Oklahoma State is just plus-59 yards per game, despite facing an easier schedule (No. 52).
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 49, Oklahoma State 34
[h=2]No. 21 Western Michigan Broncos (-18.5) vs. Ohio Bobcats[/h]7:00 p.m. ET Friday on ESPN2
Frank Solich is 7-1 ATS as an underdog and has one of the Mid-American Conference's best defenses, led by a super defensive front seven. Surprisingly, the defensive numbers are close, with Western Michigan holding foes to 39 yards per game below their season average and Ohio holding opponents to 33 below. Offensively, this isn't close, as Western Michigan averages 105 yards per game more than their conference opponents allow and Ohio's offense averages 57 yards per game fewer than their opponents normally allow. The special teams are even. The Bobcats have lost four games, and four of their eight wins have been by six points or fewer. The Broncos have won all but one game by at least 14 points, and their average win in Mid-American Conference play is by a score of 45-18. Style points are still needed for Western Michigan, as they're trying to land a Cotton Bowl berth.
ATS pick: Western Michigan
Score: Western Michigan 38, Ohio 13
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS). This year, the straight-up record is 76-33 (70 percent), but the ATS record is just 47-57-3 (45 percent).
Here are this week's selections.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]No. 5 Washington Huskies (-7) vs. No. 9 Colorado Buffaloes[/h]9:00 p.m. ET Friday on Fox
Washington is plus-157 yards per game in Pac-12 play, and Colorado is a solid plus-108. Colorado has a balanced offense, averaging 201 rushing and 269 passing yards per game, and a defense that allows just 3.9 yards per carry and 49 percent completion. The Buffaloes have no real weakness except special teams (my No. 111). Washington also has a balanced offense and a top-notch defense, led by a secondary loaded with NFL-caliber players. Although both are solid, Washington is more talented in each area and has a large edge in special teams (my No. 41 unit). Jake Browning has a 40-7 ratio, while Sefo Liufau's is 11-4. Both teams have a thousand-yard running back, but the Huskies' top two combined for 1,915 yards (6.6), while the Buffaloes' top two combined for 1,482 (5.0). Washington's top three wide receivers have a combined 149 catches, and Colorado's have more, with 156. The Huskies receivers have 2,427 yards with a 16.2 average and 35 touchdowns. Colorado's top three combined for 2,100 yards with a 13.4 average and 16 touchdowns.
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Each is deserving to be here, but I'll side with the more explosive Huskies to get it done and wrap up a berth in the playoff.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 33, Colorado 21
[h=2]No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5) vs. No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers[/h]8:00 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX
If this game had been played in week five, Wisconsin would've been favored by at least 17, as the Badgers had impressive wins over LSU and Michigan State. Penn State was coming off a 49-10 loss at Michigan. Wisconsin has played well all season but over the past five games has played to an average game grade of just 93.9 in my computer ratings. Penn State was down its top five linebackers against Michigan but has gotten back two starters, in Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell, and the defense has some bite. The win over Ohio State gave Penn State a huge boost of confidence, and the Nittany Lions played to an average game grade of 105.6 the past five weeks. I give a large edge at quarterback to Penn State, with Trace McSorley having a 21-5 ratio, while the Badger duo has a 13-10 ratio. Penn State also has a large edge on special teams (my No. 30 vs. 88). Penn State has covered eight in a row.
ATS pick: Penn State (+)
Score: Penn State 23, Wisconsin 20
[h=2]Virginia Tech Hokies (+10) at No. 4 Clemson Tigers[/h]8:00 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC
Clemson is in the playoff with a win and doesn't need style points. Clemson has been an up-and-down team but is coming off one of its most impressive games, with a 622-to-218 yards edge over South Carolina. Virginia Tech comes into this game loose, with everything to gain and nothing to lose. While Clemson is plus-173 yards per game in ACC play, Virginia Tech is not far behind at plus-137. Clemson's defense has come to life the past few weeks, but that was against weak offenses. Virginia Tech's dangerous quarterback, Jerod Evans, leads the team with 713 yards rushing while accounting for 34 total touchdowns with just five interceptions. Watson has 38 total touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Clemson is the stronger team, but Bud Foster's defense and Evans' production will keep it close.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech (+)
Score: Clemson 31, Virginia Tech 27
[h=2]San Diego State Aztecs (-6.5) at Wyoming Cowboys[/h]7:45 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN
Two weeks ago, I had San Diego State (-9.5) over Wyoming. I knew the Aztecs had clinched their division but thought they would continue their dominating run through the Mountain West. They never trailed and led 27-20 early in the fourth quarter, with Wyoming needing to win to keep its title hopes alive. Wyoming tied it and then took its first lead with 1:07 remaining. San Diego State got a touchdown with no time left but went for two and was stopped. Now San Diego State has a Mountain West title to play for, is familiar with the site and is seeking revenge. Despite Wyoming's having a 98-yard edge in the prior meeting, San Diego State is still plus-138 yards per game in Mountain West play, while Wyoming is minus-20. Wyoming allows 226 rushing yards per game and faces a rested Donnel Pumphrey. After averaging 27.4 carries per game in nine games prior to clinching the division, Pumphrey has had just 17 and 18 carries the past two weeks. The Aztecs' defense was holding Mountain West foes to 158 yards per game below their season average prior to clinching, while Wyoming is allowing Mountain West foes 66 yards more than they average.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 38, Wyoming 27
[h=2]No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-12)[/h]<h 2="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></h>
12:30 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX
Four of the Power Five conferences have scheduled title games. The Big 12 has a regular-season game that is actually the best title game in the Power Five. You could argue that USC is the best team in the South of the Pac-12, Ohio State is the best team in the Big Ten, Florida is the fourth- or fifth-best team in the SEC, and Louisville and Florida State would both be favored over Virginia Tech. Here, we have the two best teams in the Big 12 in a legitimate title game. Last year, Oklahoma went on the road and won 58-23; now the Sooners are at home. Oklahoma is plus-109 yards per game and has faced my No. 11 toughest schedule, while Oklahoma State is just plus-59 yards per game, despite facing an easier schedule (No. 52).
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 49, Oklahoma State 34
Frank Solich is 7-1 ATS as an underdog and has one of the Mid-American Conference's best defenses, led by a super defensive front seven. Surprisingly, the defensive numbers are close, with Western Michigan holding foes to 39 yards per game below their season average and Ohio holding opponents to 33 below. Offensively, this isn't close, as Western Michigan averages 105 yards per game more than their conference opponents allow and Ohio's offense averages 57 yards per game fewer than their opponents normally allow. The special teams are even. The Bobcats have lost four games, and four of their eight wins have been by six points or fewer. The Broncos have won all but one game by at least 14 points, and their average win in Mid-American Conference play is by a score of 45-18. Style points are still needed for Western Michigan, as they're trying to land a Cotton Bowl berth.
ATS pick: Western Michigan
Score: Western Michigan 38, Ohio 13
