[h=1]Week 13 contrarian NFL betting strategy[/h]David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
It's an undeniable fact that casual bettors and weekend warriors overwhelmingly pound favorites and overs, which is why contrarian bettors have historically found value by taking underdogs and unders.
Using our Bet Labs software, I found that since 2003, only 19.32 percent of regular-season games have seen action in which more bettors are on the underdog than the favorite. There has been even more one-sided public betting on the total, with more of the public supporting the under than the over in just 11.61 percent of regular-season games.
It's important to realize that the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the volume of bets placed on the game, which often <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>makes it problematic to apply a contrarian philosophy when betting totals. There's roughly three times more money wagered on the spread than the total, which mitigates the impact of public betting. However, I have consistently found that contrarian bettors can find value by capitalizing on public perception. If oddsmakers are almost always anticipating public money on the over, what happens when it comes down on the under?
"When most of the betting public is playing the under, we react with a surprised look on our faces," Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for Bookmaker joked. "It certainly doesn't happen too often. I think we are pretty good at anticipating when the public is going to look hard at the under, usually when you've got two teams that the media tabs as 'defensive-minded' or 'offensively challenged.' And if we have a situation like that, we may shade slightly toward the under, but those types of games are usually when the sharps see value in the over."
It was promising to learn that oddsmakers lower their total when public bettors hammer the under, and it was even more encouraging to learn sharp bettors frequently gravitate toward these contrarian overs. Unfortunately, this strategy hasn't been profitable -- at least not in the most basic sense. My research found that when the majority of public bettors are taking the under, the over has gone just 191-203 (48.5 percent) during the regular season.
Although this basic contrarian system hasn't been effective, I wanted to know what happens when examining games with extremely one-sided public betting. I previously discovered a direct correlation with lower public support and higher return on investment (ROI) when betting against the public on the spread. Why wouldn't the same principle be effective in regard to the total?
There have been only 43 games in our database in which less than 35 percent of bettors took the over, which represents just 1.27 percent of all regular-season games. In these games, the over has been highly profitable, posting a 27-16 (62.8 percent) record. Despite the infrequency of this occurrence, there are three games fitting that criterion in Week 13.
Fitting this basic system would be enough to justify placing a wager, but there are several common threads among all three of our Week 13 system matches, and that further validates these picks. For starters, there are no divisional matchups this week, which is beneficial for over bettors. Since 2003, the over has hit at a 47.5 percent rate in divisional rivalries and a 51.9 percent rate in all other games.
Additionally, my Week 10 analysis explained that high wind speeds greatly impacted scoring -- a condition detrimental to over bettors. Since 2003, the over has hit at a 44.2 percent rate when the wind is blowing at least 10 mph and at 51.9 percent rate in all other games. When there are low wind speeds in a nondivisional game, the win rate jumps to 53.2 percent.
By eliminating division games, we ensure the two teams have not previously played each other and therefore have limited familiarity. By avoiding games with strong wind speeds, we eliminate one of the biggest impediments to scoring.
The final consideration involves the Sports Insights money percentages, which were implemented before the start of the season. My past analysis has typically focused on the percentage of tickets at seven contributing offshore sportsbooks, because there's a larger sample size to draw from, but it's crucial to know where the money is going.
Sportsbooks are far more likely to adjust their lines if they have serious liability on one side, and these money percentages provide valuable information. This season, the over has gone 4-1 when at least 70 percent of money has been bet on the under. This falls in line with similar small sample trends for other major sports.
After taking last week off due to the Thanksgiving holiday, we'll try to come out strong this week with three current game matches.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">Week 13 Betting System - Contrarian Overs</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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[h=2]Week 13 system matches[/h]
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under: 41.5
This game features a perfect storm, with Jacksonville's anemic offense (19.5 points per game) taking on Denver's potent defense (allowing 19.9 points per game). Clearly, bettors believe points will be at a premium in this matchup, as 79 percent of tickets and 98 percent of total dollars wagered have been on the under. This one-sided public betting has caused the total to drop from 42 to 41.5.
This is the second-lowest Week 13 total, and historically, there has been great value in taking the over in games with low totals. Since 2003, the over has gone 823-744 (52.5 percent) when the closing total is less than 43, including a 23-17 record this season.
Forecasts are calling for clear skies, 70 degree temperatures and 6 mph winds, which means inclement weather will not be an issue. It's also worth noting that despite popular belief, both the Broncos (6-5) and Jaguars (7-4) have been profitable for over bettors this season.
The Jaguars' running game has been almost nonexistent, and it's safe to expect lots of passing attempts from Blake Bortles. That should lead to more clock stoppages, additional possessions and increased scoring opportunities. It might not be pretty, but there's value in this contrarian over.
The pick: Over 41.5
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
Over/under: 44.5
Since 2003, the over has gone 122-94 (56.5 percent) in regular-season games featuring the Patriots -- easily the best record in football over that span. In those games, the majority of bets have taken the under in just 20 games, so what's happening this weekend?
With Tom Brady dealing with a knee injury and Rob Gronkowski sidelined with a back injury, New England managed just 22 points in Sunday's win over the Jets. That isn't overly surprising, given the divisional opponent, but bettors seem to be skeptical about whether the Pats can pile up the points against a talented Rams defense.
At the time of publication, 80 percent of tickets and 98 percent of total dollars wagered were taking the under in Sunday's matchup. This one-sided public betting caused the total to drop from 45 to 44.5 at the Westgate SuperBook.
Since 2003, the over has hit at a 51.8 percent rate in nonconference games, and I'm confident that trend will continue this weekend. The Rams' defense gave up 49 points to the Saints last week, and it will likely struggle to contain Brady and his litany of talented weapons. Quite frankly, I'm shocked at how many bettors are skeptical about this potent Patriots offense.
I could see New England jumping to an early lead before falling into their bend-but-don't-break defense. Jared Goff might be inexperienced, but I think he will post a surprisingly respectable stat line on Sunday.
It's rare that you'll find contrarian value on a Patriots over, so I'll gladly take advantage of this unique opportunity.
The pick: Over 44.5
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
Over/under: 49.5
With Andrew Luck in the league's concussion protocol, most offshore sportsbooks currently have this game off the board; however, the Westgate Superbook opened the total at 49.5 on Sunday evening. In early betting, 92 percent of tickets have taken the under, though that will likely change if and when Luck is cleared for action.
The Colts quarterback practiced Monday after missing the team's Thanksgiving loss to the Steelers, and I fully expect him to play Sunday. Assuming that's the case, there's solid value on the over in this week's Monday Night Football game.
Many analysts will be quick to point out the wide array of offensive weapons, but it's the Colts' secondary that makes them such an interesting over team. Indy's defense, which ranks 30th in passing defense (395 ypg) and 28th in scoring defense (27.4 ppg), could be without star cornerback Vontae Davis (ankle) once again.
The Jets have been excellent against the run and subpar against the pass this season, which means the Colts will likely be throwing the ball all day. This game could be a shootout, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the total jump once Luck is officially upgraded to probable. With the public hammering the under, I'll gladly take yet another contrarian over.
The pick: Over 49.5
Note: These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
It's an undeniable fact that casual bettors and weekend warriors overwhelmingly pound favorites and overs, which is why contrarian bettors have historically found value by taking underdogs and unders.
Using our Bet Labs software, I found that since 2003, only 19.32 percent of regular-season games have seen action in which more bettors are on the underdog than the favorite. There has been even more one-sided public betting on the total, with more of the public supporting the under than the over in just 11.61 percent of regular-season games.
It's important to realize that the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the volume of bets placed on the game, which often <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>makes it problematic to apply a contrarian philosophy when betting totals. There's roughly three times more money wagered on the spread than the total, which mitigates the impact of public betting. However, I have consistently found that contrarian bettors can find value by capitalizing on public perception. If oddsmakers are almost always anticipating public money on the over, what happens when it comes down on the under?
"When most of the betting public is playing the under, we react with a surprised look on our faces," Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for Bookmaker joked. "It certainly doesn't happen too often. I think we are pretty good at anticipating when the public is going to look hard at the under, usually when you've got two teams that the media tabs as 'defensive-minded' or 'offensively challenged.' And if we have a situation like that, we may shade slightly toward the under, but those types of games are usually when the sharps see value in the over."
It was promising to learn that oddsmakers lower their total when public bettors hammer the under, and it was even more encouraging to learn sharp bettors frequently gravitate toward these contrarian overs. Unfortunately, this strategy hasn't been profitable -- at least not in the most basic sense. My research found that when the majority of public bettors are taking the under, the over has gone just 191-203 (48.5 percent) during the regular season.
Although this basic contrarian system hasn't been effective, I wanted to know what happens when examining games with extremely one-sided public betting. I previously discovered a direct correlation with lower public support and higher return on investment (ROI) when betting against the public on the spread. Why wouldn't the same principle be effective in regard to the total?
There have been only 43 games in our database in which less than 35 percent of bettors took the over, which represents just 1.27 percent of all regular-season games. In these games, the over has been highly profitable, posting a 27-16 (62.8 percent) record. Despite the infrequency of this occurrence, there are three games fitting that criterion in Week 13.
Fitting this basic system would be enough to justify placing a wager, but there are several common threads among all three of our Week 13 system matches, and that further validates these picks. For starters, there are no divisional matchups this week, which is beneficial for over bettors. Since 2003, the over has hit at a 47.5 percent rate in divisional rivalries and a 51.9 percent rate in all other games.
Additionally, my Week 10 analysis explained that high wind speeds greatly impacted scoring -- a condition detrimental to over bettors. Since 2003, the over has hit at a 44.2 percent rate when the wind is blowing at least 10 mph and at 51.9 percent rate in all other games. When there are low wind speeds in a nondivisional game, the win rate jumps to 53.2 percent.
By eliminating division games, we ensure the two teams have not previously played each other and therefore have limited familiarity. By avoiding games with strong wind speeds, we eliminate one of the biggest impediments to scoring.
The final consideration involves the Sports Insights money percentages, which were implemented before the start of the season. My past analysis has typically focused on the percentage of tickets at seven contributing offshore sportsbooks, because there's a larger sample size to draw from, but it's crucial to know where the money is going.
Sportsbooks are far more likely to adjust their lines if they have serious liability on one side, and these money percentages provide valuable information. This season, the over has gone 4-1 when at least 70 percent of money has been bet on the under. This falls in line with similar small sample trends for other major sports.
After taking last week off due to the Thanksgiving holiday, we'll try to come out strong this week with three current game matches.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| All overs | 1,730-1,713 (50.2%) | -62.96 | -1.8% |
| Overs that received less than 35% of public bets | 27-16 (62.8%) | +9.39 | 21.8% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: auto; line-height: normal; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; padding-bottom: 12px;">Week 13 Betting System - Contrarian Overs</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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[h=2]Week 13 system matches[/h]
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under: 41.5
This game features a perfect storm, with Jacksonville's anemic offense (19.5 points per game) taking on Denver's potent defense (allowing 19.9 points per game). Clearly, bettors believe points will be at a premium in this matchup, as 79 percent of tickets and 98 percent of total dollars wagered have been on the under. This one-sided public betting has caused the total to drop from 42 to 41.5.
This is the second-lowest Week 13 total, and historically, there has been great value in taking the over in games with low totals. Since 2003, the over has gone 823-744 (52.5 percent) when the closing total is less than 43, including a 23-17 record this season.
Forecasts are calling for clear skies, 70 degree temperatures and 6 mph winds, which means inclement weather will not be an issue. It's also worth noting that despite popular belief, both the Broncos (6-5) and Jaguars (7-4) have been profitable for over bettors this season.
The Jaguars' running game has been almost nonexistent, and it's safe to expect lots of passing attempts from Blake Bortles. That should lead to more clock stoppages, additional possessions and increased scoring opportunities. It might not be pretty, but there's value in this contrarian over.
The pick: Over 41.5
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
Over/under: 44.5
Since 2003, the over has gone 122-94 (56.5 percent) in regular-season games featuring the Patriots -- easily the best record in football over that span. In those games, the majority of bets have taken the under in just 20 games, so what's happening this weekend?
With Tom Brady dealing with a knee injury and Rob Gronkowski sidelined with a back injury, New England managed just 22 points in Sunday's win over the Jets. That isn't overly surprising, given the divisional opponent, but bettors seem to be skeptical about whether the Pats can pile up the points against a talented Rams defense.
At the time of publication, 80 percent of tickets and 98 percent of total dollars wagered were taking the under in Sunday's matchup. This one-sided public betting caused the total to drop from 45 to 44.5 at the Westgate SuperBook.
Since 2003, the over has hit at a 51.8 percent rate in nonconference games, and I'm confident that trend will continue this weekend. The Rams' defense gave up 49 points to the Saints last week, and it will likely struggle to contain Brady and his litany of talented weapons. Quite frankly, I'm shocked at how many bettors are skeptical about this potent Patriots offense.
I could see New England jumping to an early lead before falling into their bend-but-don't-break defense. Jared Goff might be inexperienced, but I think he will post a surprisingly respectable stat line on Sunday.
It's rare that you'll find contrarian value on a Patriots over, so I'll gladly take advantage of this unique opportunity.
The pick: Over 44.5
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
Over/under: 49.5
With Andrew Luck in the league's concussion protocol, most offshore sportsbooks currently have this game off the board; however, the Westgate Superbook opened the total at 49.5 on Sunday evening. In early betting, 92 percent of tickets have taken the under, though that will likely change if and when Luck is cleared for action.
The Colts quarterback practiced Monday after missing the team's Thanksgiving loss to the Steelers, and I fully expect him to play Sunday. Assuming that's the case, there's solid value on the over in this week's Monday Night Football game.
Many analysts will be quick to point out the wide array of offensive weapons, but it's the Colts' secondary that makes them such an interesting over team. Indy's defense, which ranks 30th in passing defense (395 ypg) and 28th in scoring defense (27.4 ppg), could be without star cornerback Vontae Davis (ankle) once again.
The Jets have been excellent against the run and subpar against the pass this season, which means the Colts will likely be throwing the ball all day. This game could be a shootout, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the total jump once Luck is officially upgraded to probable. With the public hammering the under, I'll gladly take yet another contrarian over.
The pick: Over 49.5
Note: These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
