[h=1]How to bet Dallas-Minnesota[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 13 games, starting with Thursday night's Dallas-Minnesota matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings[/h]Spread: Opened Dallas -3; now Dallas -3
Total: Opened 43.5; now 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent pick Dallas
Public perception: The public is on the Cowboys, as they're still 9-1-1 against the spread, despite not covering in their 31-26 Thanksgiving Day win over the Redskins. The Vikings are falling out of favor with the public as their hot start has cooled.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps jumped on Dallas -3, but they're split on this game overall, as plenty of other sharps grabbing Minnesota +3.5 (and both have been widely available this week).
Dave Tuley's take: It's scary to fade the Cowboys, but we got the cover with the Redskins last week and see the Vikings just as capable of staying within the number -- or even pulling the upset at home. Our Vegas rankings have Minnesota as a value play, as our panel has Dallas as only two points better on a neutral field, so with home-field advantage, we believe this line should be closer to a pick 'em.
The key will be containing Dallas' potent running game and putting pressure on Dak Prescott, as the Vikings' strength is still their No. 3 defense: They give up only 307 yards per game, and only 17.5 points per game (with only one opponent scoring more than 24 points). I bet the Vikings +3.5 and would pass at +3 (as you give up a lot with pushing instead of winning if the Cowboys win by exactly a field goal).
Pick: Lean to Vikings +3
Rufus Peabody: Dallas has ascended to the No. 3 spot in the Massey-Peabody ratings, trailing only the Patriots and Seahawks. The Cowboys once again put up excellent offensive numbers last week, with a play success rate of a ridiculous 67 percent. They have excelled in that category all season, and it has kept them out of third-and-long scenarios; in fact, Dallas has averaged only 6.39 yards to go on third downs, second-lowest in the league (behind New Orleans). Dallas also ranks second in the NFL with only 18.5 percent of its offensive plays coming on third down. In fact, last week against Washington, the Cowboys attempted only seven plays on third down; generally this means that their offense is good enough to convert on first and second down. Still, it's asking a lot of them to cover a three-point spread on the road against the No. 3 defense in the NFL.
Pick: Minnesota +3 or 3.5
Massey-Peabody line: Dallas -0.6, Total: 44.4
Erin Rynning: If the Vikings' offense is ever going to perk up, it just might be this matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas gives up the fifth-most yards per play in the NFL (5.9), and is 29th in sack percentage. Obviously, this Vikings offensive line has struggled, but the recent focus on the short-passing game and the Cowboys' questionable defense will provide an opportunity. Again, take nothing away from this Cowboys offense and Prescott, but this will be the toughest assignment for the offense this season, and in a loud venue. The Vikings' defense has the athletic talent to match the Cowboys. I'll lean to the home underdog Vikings.
Pick: Lean Vikings
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]John Parolin
93.5 rush yards by Ezekiel Elliott (O/U -110)
Ranking third in the league in yards allowed, the Vikings' defense is the strength of the team. Minnesota's pass defense is especially worthy of the hype, with a league-best 55 Total QBR allowed. It leads the NFC (and trails only Denver overall) with 6.2 yards per attempt allowed and a 57.9 completion percentage. But hearing "Vikings defense" evokes a reputation the team hasn't earned in rush defense. On the season, the Vikings have given up 4.2 yards per rush (20th in the league), and they are trending even worse than that. Minnesota gave up 3.74 yards per rush in Weeks 1-7, but in the last five weeks it has been a full yard more (4.74), up to 122 rush yards per game, despite facing the Bears and Lions in three of the five games (not exactly rush-heavy offenses).
Minnesota has given up at least 94 rush yards in six straight games this season, and none of them have been against Elliott or the Cowboys' offensive line. After starting his career with 134 yards in his first two games, Elliott is over 93.5 in eight of his past nine games. In that span (since Week 3), Dallas is averaging 3.1 rush yards before contact as a team -- third best in the league. So Elliott is getting room to run, and even when defenders get to him, it's by no means a guaranteed tackle. Dallas rushers are averaging 2.0 yards after contact per rush, making the Cowboys the only team in the top five in yards before and after contact per rush. Workload concerns? Jerry Jones said just this week Dallas wasn't lightening the load for their star rusher. Take the over.
The play: Over
69.5 receiving yards by Dez Bryant (O/U -110)
While Dallas is using the running game as the centerpiece and the Vikings' pass defense so strong, there might not be much opportunity beyond play-action passes. This seems awfully low for a receiver with Bryant's physical abilities, but Bryant hasn't been relied upon for the bulk of Dallas' production this season. Prescott has looked for both Jason Witten and Cole Beasley (72 targets each) more often than Bryant this season.
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Looking at Dallas' play-action receiving production, Bryant ranks fourth on the team with 108 receiving yards off play-action passes. Elliott, Witten and Beasley all have more yards off play-action passes than Bryant. It would make sense for the Cowboys' offense to stay conservative with shorter targets to those three against this pass defense instead of forcing the ball downfield to Bryant against Harrison Smith and the Vikings' excellent group of cornerbacks.
How good have they been? Only four different wide receivers have reached 70 yards against the Vikings this season: Tajae Sharpe, Golden Tate, Pierre Garconand Jordy Nelson. Tate and Nelson might command Bryant's level of attention from the Vikings, but Sharpe and Garcon probably would not. They limit the top wideouts fairly well, and the Cowboys have a formula that works.
The play: Under
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 13 games, starting with Thursday night's Dallas-Minnesota matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Total: Opened 43.5; now 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent pick Dallas
Public perception: The public is on the Cowboys, as they're still 9-1-1 against the spread, despite not covering in their 31-26 Thanksgiving Day win over the Redskins. The Vikings are falling out of favor with the public as their hot start has cooled.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps jumped on Dallas -3, but they're split on this game overall, as plenty of other sharps grabbing Minnesota +3.5 (and both have been widely available this week).
Dave Tuley's take: It's scary to fade the Cowboys, but we got the cover with the Redskins last week and see the Vikings just as capable of staying within the number -- or even pulling the upset at home. Our Vegas rankings have Minnesota as a value play, as our panel has Dallas as only two points better on a neutral field, so with home-field advantage, we believe this line should be closer to a pick 'em.
The key will be containing Dallas' potent running game and putting pressure on Dak Prescott, as the Vikings' strength is still their No. 3 defense: They give up only 307 yards per game, and only 17.5 points per game (with only one opponent scoring more than 24 points). I bet the Vikings +3.5 and would pass at +3 (as you give up a lot with pushing instead of winning if the Cowboys win by exactly a field goal).
Pick: Lean to Vikings +3
Rufus Peabody: Dallas has ascended to the No. 3 spot in the Massey-Peabody ratings, trailing only the Patriots and Seahawks. The Cowboys once again put up excellent offensive numbers last week, with a play success rate of a ridiculous 67 percent. They have excelled in that category all season, and it has kept them out of third-and-long scenarios; in fact, Dallas has averaged only 6.39 yards to go on third downs, second-lowest in the league (behind New Orleans). Dallas also ranks second in the NFL with only 18.5 percent of its offensive plays coming on third down. In fact, last week against Washington, the Cowboys attempted only seven plays on third down; generally this means that their offense is good enough to convert on first and second down. Still, it's asking a lot of them to cover a three-point spread on the road against the No. 3 defense in the NFL.
Pick: Minnesota +3 or 3.5
Massey-Peabody line: Dallas -0.6, Total: 44.4
Erin Rynning: If the Vikings' offense is ever going to perk up, it just might be this matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas gives up the fifth-most yards per play in the NFL (5.9), and is 29th in sack percentage. Obviously, this Vikings offensive line has struggled, but the recent focus on the short-passing game and the Cowboys' questionable defense will provide an opportunity. Again, take nothing away from this Cowboys offense and Prescott, but this will be the toughest assignment for the offense this season, and in a loud venue. The Vikings' defense has the athletic talent to match the Cowboys. I'll lean to the home underdog Vikings.
Pick: Lean Vikings
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]John Parolin
93.5 rush yards by Ezekiel Elliott (O/U -110)
Ranking third in the league in yards allowed, the Vikings' defense is the strength of the team. Minnesota's pass defense is especially worthy of the hype, with a league-best 55 Total QBR allowed. It leads the NFC (and trails only Denver overall) with 6.2 yards per attempt allowed and a 57.9 completion percentage. But hearing "Vikings defense" evokes a reputation the team hasn't earned in rush defense. On the season, the Vikings have given up 4.2 yards per rush (20th in the league), and they are trending even worse than that. Minnesota gave up 3.74 yards per rush in Weeks 1-7, but in the last five weeks it has been a full yard more (4.74), up to 122 rush yards per game, despite facing the Bears and Lions in three of the five games (not exactly rush-heavy offenses).
Minnesota has given up at least 94 rush yards in six straight games this season, and none of them have been against Elliott or the Cowboys' offensive line. After starting his career with 134 yards in his first two games, Elliott is over 93.5 in eight of his past nine games. In that span (since Week 3), Dallas is averaging 3.1 rush yards before contact as a team -- third best in the league. So Elliott is getting room to run, and even when defenders get to him, it's by no means a guaranteed tackle. Dallas rushers are averaging 2.0 yards after contact per rush, making the Cowboys the only team in the top five in yards before and after contact per rush. Workload concerns? Jerry Jones said just this week Dallas wasn't lightening the load for their star rusher. Take the over.
The play: Over
69.5 receiving yards by Dez Bryant (O/U -110)
While Dallas is using the running game as the centerpiece and the Vikings' pass defense so strong, there might not be much opportunity beyond play-action passes. This seems awfully low for a receiver with Bryant's physical abilities, but Bryant hasn't been relied upon for the bulk of Dallas' production this season. Prescott has looked for both Jason Witten and Cole Beasley (72 targets each) more often than Bryant this season.
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Looking at Dallas' play-action receiving production, Bryant ranks fourth on the team with 108 receiving yards off play-action passes. Elliott, Witten and Beasley all have more yards off play-action passes than Bryant. It would make sense for the Cowboys' offense to stay conservative with shorter targets to those three against this pass defense instead of forcing the ball downfield to Bryant against Harrison Smith and the Vikings' excellent group of cornerbacks.
How good have they been? Only four different wide receivers have reached 70 yards against the Vikings this season: Tajae Sharpe, Golden Tate, Pierre Garconand Jordy Nelson. Tate and Nelson might command Bryant's level of attention from the Vikings, but Sharpe and Garcon probably would not. They limit the top wideouts fairly well, and the Cowboys have a formula that works.
The play: Under
