Early use of bowl strategy on season ending games

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The strategy of taking the team with the better run defense(RD) and also run offense(RD) in bowl matchups has been very successful the past few years of tracking..trying this right before the bowl games to see what happens,, I am late with the washington winner but there is 8 matchups tomorrow that qualify

colorado 44rth RO 34rth RD
washington 39th RO 25th RD,,,, washingon -8.5 winner

kansas st 41 RO 3rd RD,,,,,,,, kansas st +3.5
TCU 57 RO 50 RD

ok st 95 RO 69 RD
oklahoma 34 RO 39 RD,,,,,,,, oklahoma -12 (+105)

ark st 110 RO 41 RD,,,,,,,,,,,, ark st -23.5
tex st 128 RO 96 RD

georgia st 127 RO 86 RD
idaho 112 RO 33 RD,,,,,,,,,,,, idaho -7 (+110)

L tech 74 RO 24 RD
west kent 64 RO 8 RD ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,west kent -10.5 (even)

san diego st 7 RO 14 RD ,,,,,,,,,,,,,san diego st -7 (+110)
wyoming 29 RO 89 RD

penn st 60 RO 44 RD
wisconsin 43 RO 3 RD,,,,,,,,,,,,, wisconsin -3 (-105)

florida 111 RO 20 RD
alabama 14 RO 1 RD,,,,,,,,,,,,,, alabama -24
 

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Shark/1..........appreciate the info and write up...........good luck with your action........indy
 

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Thanks GShark-already on three of them and adding the others. Can't figure out if Bama cares to blow out Florida though.
 

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I remember this worked well last year. Do you have the cover rate? Was it 60%+?
 

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Excellent info! I like when a poster contributes solid information rather than just posting a game (eg "State U - 3").

I always look at the running games as a huge factor both NCAA and NFL (Hog Ratings).

But 7 of 8 of your examples are favorites; need to be careful.

Best bet is a dog getting 6-7 points or so that has a much better offensive running game even if the defenses are about the same.

We shall see.
 

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no need to do this shit manually. here is history and query for championship games....

I'm assuming you are using average yards per game rushing and defending the rush so this would be your setup although dbase not agreeing with wky as having better numbers on both btw....

tA(rushing yards) > otA(rushing yards) and otA(o:rushing yards) > tA(o:rushing yards) and game type = CH and division = 1A
SU:24-12-0 (7.42, 66.7%)Teaser Records
ATS:19-17-0 (0.86, 52.8%) avg line: -6.6+6: 25-11-0 (69.4%) -6: 14-22-0 (38.9%) +10: 29-7-0 (80.6%) -10: 12-24-0 (33.3%)
O/U:14-21-1 (-6.61, 40.0%) avg total: 57.9+6: 2-31-3 (6.1%) -6: 21-15-0 (58.3%) +10: 1-35-0 (2.8%) -10: 22-13-1 (62.9%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team42.1184.732.718.9224.91.96.59.06.96.529.4
Opp34.0113.134.719.2229.21.93.86.76.45.621.9
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016ALAFLAneutral-24.040.50
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016WISPNSTneutral-3.046.50
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016SDSTWYOaway-6.058.50
Dec 02, 2016boxFriday142016WASCOLOneutral7-77-017-310-041-10-8.555.53122.5-4.59.0-13.5WWU0

 

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and here is regular season games with better offensive and defensive rush team. 50/50 basically, 170-175-13 ATS

136-7-0 (-1.92, 46.2%)-9.94-9-0 (-6.42, 30.8%)57.010-3-0 (8.00, 76.9%)game number = 13
357174-169-13 (0.35, 50.7%)-9.8169-180-7 (0.46, 48.4%)54.9253-104-0 (10.27, 70.9%)game number = 12
 

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and this is bowl games and playoff games. great last two years, 50/50 otherwise

tA(rushing yards) > otA(rushing yards) and otA(o:rushing yards) > tA(o:rushing yards) and (game type = BG or game type = PO) and division = 1A and ...
gamesATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)
Avg LineOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSU
W - L- P (marg, %win)
SDQL
2015-5-0 (10.38, 75.0%)-1.513-7-0 (6.92, 65.0%)58.416-4-0 (11.90, 80.0%)season = 2015
2115-6-0 (10.93, 71.4%)-2.610-10-1 (-0.12, 50.0%)60.315-6-0 (13.57, 71.4%)season = 2014
145-9-0 (-4.18, 35.7%)-1.85-9-0 (-3.50, 35.7%)61.35-9-0 (-2.36, 35.7%)season = 2013
159-6-0 (3.60, 60.0%)-3.19-5-1 (0.27, 64.3%)57.310-5-0 (6.67, 66.7%)season = 2012
1710-7-0 (0.79, 58.8%)-3.08-9-0 (-3.85, 47.1%)55.710-7-0 (3.82, 58.8%)season = 2011
179-8-0 (1.21, 52.9%)-1.37-10-0 (-6.71, 41.2%)55.910-7-0 (2.47, 58.8%)season = 2010
209-10-1 (-1.77, 47.4%)-0.211-9-0 (-1.00, 55.0%)55.89-11-0 (-1.60, 45.0%)season = 2009
1810-8-0 (5.36, 55.6%)-3.57-11-0 (-1.42, 38.9%)54.914-4-0 (8.83, 77.8%)season = 2008
147-7-0 (4.35, 50.0%)-4.26-7-1 (-0.29, 46.2%)59.27-7-0 (8.50, 50.0%)season = 2007
168-8-0 (1.75, 50.0%)-1.96-10-0 (0.78, 37.5%)50.69-7-0 (3.62, 56.2%)season = 2006
Showing 1 to 10 of 10 entries
 

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now, with the bowl/po games, toss out the big underdogs and the teams that have 3 or more wins than opponent and you have just 1 losing season since dbase tracked....

tA(rushing yards) > otA(rushing yards) and otA(o:rushing yards) > tA(o:rushing yards) and (game type = BG or game type = PO) and line < 7.5 and division = 1A and wins - o:wins < 3 and ...
gamesATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)
Avg LineOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSU
W - L- P (marg, %win)
SDQL
1914-5-0 (9.21, 73.7%)-1.513-6-0 (7.68, 68.4%)58.515-4-0 (10.68, 78.9%)season = 2015
2115-6-0 (10.93, 71.4%)-2.610-10-1 (-0.12, 50.0%)60.315-6-0 (13.57, 71.4%)season = 2014
115-6-0 (-0.09, 45.5%)-0.64-7-0 (-3.77, 36.4%)61.65-6-0 (0.55, 45.5%)season = 2013
96-3-0 (4.39, 66.7%)-6.65-3-1 (-3.00, 62.5%)60.06-3-0 (11.00, 66.7%)season = 2012
148-6-0 (-0.64, 57.1%)-3.46-8-0 (-4.71, 42.9%)54.88-6-0 (2.79, 57.1%)season = 2011
137-6-0 (2.12, 53.8%)-1.96-7-0 (-3.27, 46.2%)55.68-5-0 (4.00, 61.5%)season = 2010
179-7-1 (-0.82, 56.2%)-0.89-8-0 (-1.97, 52.9%)56.09-8-0 (-0.06, 52.9%)season = 2009
1710-7-0 (6.06, 58.8%)-3.47-10-0 (-0.85, 41.2%)55.714-3-0 (9.47, 82.4%)season = 2008
107-3-0 (8.99, 70.0%)-4.44-5-1 (1.50, 44.4%)60.76-4-0 (13.40, 60.0%)season = 2007
95-4-0 (1.11, 55.6%)-3.33-6-0 (-3.00, 33.3%)48.15-4-0 (4.44, 55.6%)season = 2006
Showing 1 to 10 of 10 entries
 

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gamblingshark, any chance you could post all of the games even those that don't fit both run o and d? If i remember correctly the better run d alone had a pretty good percentage as well. Thanks!
 

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Rolltide will post these plays for bowl season please
amesATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)
Avg LineOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSU
W - L- P (marg, %win)
SDQL
1914-5-0 (9.21, 73.7%)-1.513-6-0 (7.68, 68.4%)58.515-4-0 (10.68, 78.9%)season = 2015
2115-6-0 (10.93, 71.4%)-2.610-10-1 (-0.12, 50.0%)60.315-6-0 (13.57, 71.4%)season = 2014
115-6-0 (-0.09, 45.5%)-0.64-7-0 (-3.77, 36.4%)61.65-6-0 (0.55, 45.5%)season = 2013
96-3-0 (4.39, 66.7%)-6.65-3-1 (-3.00, 62.5%)60.06-3-0 (11.00, 66.7%)season = 2012
148-6-0 (-0.64, 57.1%)-3.46-8-0 (-4.71, 42.9%)54.88-6-0 (2.79, 57.1%)season = 2011
137-6-0 (2.12, 53.8%)-1.96-7-0 (-3.27, 46.2%)55.68-5-0 (4.00, 61.5%)season = 2010
179-7-1 (-0.82, 56.2%)-0.89-8-0 (-1.97, 52.9%)56.09-8-0 (-0.06, 52.9%)season = 2009
1710-7-0 (6.06, 58.8%)-3.47-10-0 (-0.85, 41.2%)55.714-3-0 (9.47, 82.4%)season = 2008
107-3-0 (8.99, 70.0%)-4.44-5-1 (1.50, 44.4%)60.76-4-0 (13.40, 60.0%)season = 2007
95-4-0 (1.11, 55.6%)-3.33-6-0 (-3.00, 33.3%)48.15-4-0 (4.44, 55.6%)season = 2006

Showing 1 to 10 of 10 entries
 

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Thanks for all the responses,,,good luck to everyone this bowl season,,,any and all info pertinent to this strategy is appreciated

Doing this system on 12/3 ended up being 6-3,,,,,,,,,,1-0 for the only dog,,and 5-3 for the favs

Last year bowls went like this:

better run D only : 10-11-2

better run D and O: 13-5

better run D and O for dogs : 6-3

better run D and O for favs : 7-2
 

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Do u or anyone else have this info for the upcoming bowl games or which ones qualify ? Thanks so much !! :toast:
 

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Thanks for all the responses,,,good luck to everyone this bowl season,,,any and all info pertinent to this strategy is appreciated

Doing this system on 12/3 ended up being 6-3,,,,,,,,,,1-0 for the only dog,,and 5-3 for the favs

Last year bowls went like this:

better run D only : 10-11-2

better run D and O: 13-5

better run D and O for dogs : 6-3

better run D and O for favs : 7-2


Excellent info!!!
 

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