Week 13 NFL betting takeaways
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 13 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks as if one team is going to coast to victory, but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leading to them cry "Bad beat!" Of course, there are also the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kinds of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 13 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should have covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
Washington (+2.5) in 31-23 loss at Arizona
This could very well go in the 50-50 category. To some degree I could argue that the Cardinals looked like the right side at several points of the game, as they were leading by more than the spread at 7-0, 10-6 at halftime, 17-13 and 24-20. However, the Redskins got back inside the number at 24-23 on Dustin Hopkins' 53-yard field goal with 6:01 to play. Washington looked like it might get the ball back -- not once, but twice -- on Arizona's next drive but the Cardinals converted a fourth-and-1 from their own 34-yard line and then had the drive extended on a defensive holding penalty against Josh Norman after not converting on third-and-5.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
It then looked like the Cardinals were going to be able to run out the clock with just one more first down, but Carson Palmer threw a bomb to J.J. Nelson for a 42-yard TD for the dagger to win by 8. That play also made losers of those holding tickets on under 48.5 points. The Cardinals showed that they can continue to play spoiler, though they still have an outside shot at a wild-card spot if they can run the table (and would have the tiebreaker on the Redskins if they catch them).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington played 4 points better than Arizona.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
Kansas City (+5) in 29-28 win at Atlanta
Atlanta money-line bettors feel they took a bad beat as the Falcons had just gone ahead 28-27 and were attempting a two-point conversion, but Eric Berry picked off a Matt Ryan pass and returned it the other way for a 2-point defensive conversion. However, the Chiefs were the right side most of the game as they led 27-16 in the fourth quarter before the Falcons rallied. Besides, there's no guarantee that the Chiefs wouldn't have marched to the winning score anyway. Kansas City got the win, but had another defensive TD (also by Berry) and Albert Wilson also had a 55-yard TD run on a fake punt, so we could argue that the Falcons (who led 32-17 in first downs) played better most of the game except for a few key big plays.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Kansas City played 9 points better than Atlanta.
Detroit (+6.5) in 28-13 win at New Orleans
The Lions never trailed; in fact, this was the first game all season where they didn't trail at some point in the fourth quarter. The most impressive part of the victory was holding the high-powered Saints offense to 13 points and Drew Brees without a touchdown pass.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Detroit played 18 points better than New Orleans.
New England (-13.5) in 26-10 home win over Los Angeles
It's hard to clearly be the right side when laying nearly two touchdowns, but the Patriots took an early 7-0 lead on LeGarrette Blount's 43-yard TD run, led 17-0 at halftime and the Rams were never within the spread again. Los Angeles only got in the end zone with 1:15 to play. The Patriots' defense made Jared Goff look like a rookie with two interceptions (although one was tipped and one off a receiver's hands) and continues to show it can complement Tom Brady and the offense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New England played 14 points better than Los Angeles.
Denver (-3.5) in 20-10 win at Jacksonville
The Broncos led 10-3 by halftime before really taking control on Bradley Roby's 51-yard interception return midway through the third quarter. Denver basically did what it had to do to get by with rookie QB Paxton Lynch, who threw for just 104 yards, filling in for Trevor Siemian and actually getting outgained 333-206. The big difference was the Broncos' defense getting three turnovers, highlighted by Roby's pick-six.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Denver played 15 points better than Jacksonville.
Cincinnati (-1.5) in 32-14 home win over Philadelphia
The Bengals kicked a field goal on their opening drive and never looked backed as it was 29-0 before the Eagles got on the board late in the third quarter. We all know the Eagles have come back to earth since their high-flying start, but the Bengals dominated in a way we haven't seen all season, even without star WR A.J. Green. If Cincinnati plays like this, it could play spoiler down the stretch.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Cincinnati played 19 points better than Philadelphia.
The Ravens got over the spread on their opening touchdown drive and never looked back, building to a 24-0 lead before the Dolphins got on the board early in the fourth quarter. Joe Flaccolooked the best he has all season with four TD passes, including two in the first quarter. Credit also goes to the Ravens' defense, but Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and the Dolphins didn't look at all like a team that came in with a six-game winning streak.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Baltimore played 22 points better than Miami.
Pittsburgh (-6.5) in 24-14 home win over New York Giants
Trailing 5-0, the Giants did threaten to make a game of it, but Eli Manning was intercepted by Lawrence Timmons at the Pittsburgh 2-yard line and his 58-yard return set up Ben Roethlisberger's 22-yard TD pass to Antonio Brown to put the Steelers up 11-0 -- and they coasted from there. The Pittsburgh defense showed it can help complement the offense in the playoff push.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Pittsburgh played 6 points better than New York.
Seattle (-8.5) in 40-7 win over Carolina
This game appeared won when Cam Newton was sidelined by Ron Rivera for a wardrobe violation and Derek Anderson was intercepted on the first play from scrimmage. The Seahawks turned it into a field goal. The two teams traded touchdowns, but then Thomas Rawls' 45-yard TD run put Seattle up 17-7 and it rolled from there. The Seahawks seemed intent on showing that last week's 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay was a fluke, and they succeeded.
Chicago (+1) in 26-6 win over San Francisco
This one was very ugly, as neither team completed a pass until midway through the second quarter. Even though the 49ers went up 6-0 on two Phil Dawson field goals in the second quarter, the Bears went ahead 7-6 on Jordan Howard's 1-yard TD run right before halftime and then they dominated the second half on both sides of the ball. Jordan's star continues to rise as he ran for 117 yards and added two more TDs in the second half. Colin Kaepernick never looked comfortable in the snow, though Matt Barkley (from USC) looked better in the second half after his slow start.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Chicago played 25 points better than San Francisco.
Indianapolis (+1) in 40-7 win at New York Jets
The Colts never trailed in this one. After forcing a three-and-out, the Colts marched 51 yards in seven plays capped by Andrew Luck's 7-yard TD pass to Dwayne Allen. They would connect on another in the first quarter and three on the way to a 24-3 halftime lead. I'm usually not one to make comments like "that team came out flat" or "is playing out the string" as I really believe NFL teams continue to give their best effort out of professional pride (especially in front of a national TV audience and their peers), but it's hard to remember a time seeing a team come out so unprepared and uninspired as the Jets. The Colts are obviously playing better than they were earlier in the season, but it's hard to truly judge when the Jets offered such weak opposition on Monday night.
50-50 ATS results
Minnesota (+3) in 17-15 home loss to Dallas
Some people -- especially Cowboys backers -- might say that it was a bad beat when the Vikings scored a touchdown with 25 seconds left in regulation and then missed the two-point conversion to lose by two and get the back-door cover. However, we're still calling it a coin-flip result as the Vikings led 3-0, pulled within the spread at 7-6 in the third quarter and even led 9-7 with 14:11 to play. The game turned after the Cowboys had to punt on their ensuing possession and challenged that punt returner Adam Thielen wasn't down by contact and got the ball at the Minnesota 8-yard line. Dak Prescott hit Dez Bryant with the go-ahead TD on the next play and the Cowboys added a Dan Bailey field goal to set up the final drama. The Vikings outplayed the Cowboys most of the game, but they were hurt by an offense that settled for three field goals and kept the Cowboys in the game. Kudos to Dallas for pulling out its 10th straight win, but we saw that the Cowboys are beatable.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas played 4 points better than Minnesota.
Green Bay (-7) in 21-13 home win over Houston
The Packers did lead 21-7 with 4:11 to play on Aaron Ripkowski's 3-yard TD run, but this was mostly a toss-up. Defense dominated as both teams had a hard time moving the ball in the snow and the game was tied 7-7 midway through the third quarter and early into the fourth quarter. It looked like the Packers might get in field goal range until Jordy Nelson got open deep on an Aaron Rodgers scramble and he hit him for a 32-yard TD with 12:42 to play to go up 14-7. When the Packers led 21-7, their backers who had bet them when the line was under a touchdown were safe, but those who bet them at the closing line of -7 almost didn't cover until Nick Novak missed the PAT after the Texans' final score. Injuries continue to keep the Texans from reaching their potential: already without J.J. Watt on defense, they played without Jadeveon Clowney, and RB Lamar Miller and WR Braxton Miller were hurt on offense during the game.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Green Bay played 6 points better than Houston.
Oakland (-3) in 38-24 home win over Buffalo
This game was the hardest to categorize this week. If you had a Buffalo +3 ticket, you probably feel like you suffered a bad beat as the Bills led 24-9 midway through the third quarter. However, the Raiders dominated from there and ended up leading by more than the spread when they took a 30-24 lead on Derek Carr's 37-yard TD pass to Amari Cooper with 14:08 to play and then won by 14. So, I'll call it a coin-flip overall. The Raiders' offense continues to dominate, but while the defense still has issues, Khalil Mack is looking more and more like an impact defensive player who can close out games.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Buffalo played 2 points better than Oakland.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) in 28-21 win at San Diego
This could have gone either way. The Chargers held spread-covering leads of 7-0 and 14-7 in the first half and also went ahead 21-17 on Tyrell Williams' 40-yard TD pass from Philip Riverswith 1:33 left in the third quarter. However, Jameis Winston rallied the Buccaneers as Roberto Aguayopulled them within 21-20 with a 35-yard field goal (and isn't every Aguayo kick an adventure when you have bucks on the Bucs?) and then they took the lead on Winston's 12-yard TD pass to Cameron Brate with 9:01 to play. The Bucs won their fourth straight and look like they're ready to contend for a playoff spot down the stretch as Winston continues to improve with a bend-but-don't-break defense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tampa Bay played 3 points better than San Diego.
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 13 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks as if one team is going to coast to victory, but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leading to them cry "Bad beat!" Of course, there are also the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kinds of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 13 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should have covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
Washington (+2.5) in 31-23 loss at Arizona
This could very well go in the 50-50 category. To some degree I could argue that the Cardinals looked like the right side at several points of the game, as they were leading by more than the spread at 7-0, 10-6 at halftime, 17-13 and 24-20. However, the Redskins got back inside the number at 24-23 on Dustin Hopkins' 53-yard field goal with 6:01 to play. Washington looked like it might get the ball back -- not once, but twice -- on Arizona's next drive but the Cardinals converted a fourth-and-1 from their own 34-yard line and then had the drive extended on a defensive holding penalty against Josh Norman after not converting on third-and-5.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
It then looked like the Cardinals were going to be able to run out the clock with just one more first down, but Carson Palmer threw a bomb to J.J. Nelson for a 42-yard TD for the dagger to win by 8. That play also made losers of those holding tickets on under 48.5 points. The Cardinals showed that they can continue to play spoiler, though they still have an outside shot at a wild-card spot if they can run the table (and would have the tiebreaker on the Redskins if they catch them).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington played 4 points better than Arizona.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
Kansas City (+5) in 29-28 win at Atlanta
Atlanta money-line bettors feel they took a bad beat as the Falcons had just gone ahead 28-27 and were attempting a two-point conversion, but Eric Berry picked off a Matt Ryan pass and returned it the other way for a 2-point defensive conversion. However, the Chiefs were the right side most of the game as they led 27-16 in the fourth quarter before the Falcons rallied. Besides, there's no guarantee that the Chiefs wouldn't have marched to the winning score anyway. Kansas City got the win, but had another defensive TD (also by Berry) and Albert Wilson also had a 55-yard TD run on a fake punt, so we could argue that the Falcons (who led 32-17 in first downs) played better most of the game except for a few key big plays.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Kansas City played 9 points better than Atlanta.
Detroit (+6.5) in 28-13 win at New Orleans
The Lions never trailed; in fact, this was the first game all season where they didn't trail at some point in the fourth quarter. The most impressive part of the victory was holding the high-powered Saints offense to 13 points and Drew Brees without a touchdown pass.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Detroit played 18 points better than New Orleans.
New England (-13.5) in 26-10 home win over Los Angeles
It's hard to clearly be the right side when laying nearly two touchdowns, but the Patriots took an early 7-0 lead on LeGarrette Blount's 43-yard TD run, led 17-0 at halftime and the Rams were never within the spread again. Los Angeles only got in the end zone with 1:15 to play. The Patriots' defense made Jared Goff look like a rookie with two interceptions (although one was tipped and one off a receiver's hands) and continues to show it can complement Tom Brady and the offense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New England played 14 points better than Los Angeles.
Denver (-3.5) in 20-10 win at Jacksonville
The Broncos led 10-3 by halftime before really taking control on Bradley Roby's 51-yard interception return midway through the third quarter. Denver basically did what it had to do to get by with rookie QB Paxton Lynch, who threw for just 104 yards, filling in for Trevor Siemian and actually getting outgained 333-206. The big difference was the Broncos' defense getting three turnovers, highlighted by Roby's pick-six.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Denver played 15 points better than Jacksonville.
Cincinnati (-1.5) in 32-14 home win over Philadelphia
The Bengals kicked a field goal on their opening drive and never looked backed as it was 29-0 before the Eagles got on the board late in the third quarter. We all know the Eagles have come back to earth since their high-flying start, but the Bengals dominated in a way we haven't seen all season, even without star WR A.J. Green. If Cincinnati plays like this, it could play spoiler down the stretch.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Cincinnati played 19 points better than Philadelphia.
The Ravens got over the spread on their opening touchdown drive and never looked back, building to a 24-0 lead before the Dolphins got on the board early in the fourth quarter. Joe Flaccolooked the best he has all season with four TD passes, including two in the first quarter. Credit also goes to the Ravens' defense, but Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and the Dolphins didn't look at all like a team that came in with a six-game winning streak.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Baltimore played 22 points better than Miami.
Trailing 5-0, the Giants did threaten to make a game of it, but Eli Manning was intercepted by Lawrence Timmons at the Pittsburgh 2-yard line and his 58-yard return set up Ben Roethlisberger's 22-yard TD pass to Antonio Brown to put the Steelers up 11-0 -- and they coasted from there. The Pittsburgh defense showed it can help complement the offense in the playoff push.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Pittsburgh played 6 points better than New York.
This game appeared won when Cam Newton was sidelined by Ron Rivera for a wardrobe violation and Derek Anderson was intercepted on the first play from scrimmage. The Seahawks turned it into a field goal. The two teams traded touchdowns, but then Thomas Rawls' 45-yard TD run put Seattle up 17-7 and it rolled from there. The Seahawks seemed intent on showing that last week's 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay was a fluke, and they succeeded.
This one was very ugly, as neither team completed a pass until midway through the second quarter. Even though the 49ers went up 6-0 on two Phil Dawson field goals in the second quarter, the Bears went ahead 7-6 on Jordan Howard's 1-yard TD run right before halftime and then they dominated the second half on both sides of the ball. Jordan's star continues to rise as he ran for 117 yards and added two more TDs in the second half. Colin Kaepernick never looked comfortable in the snow, though Matt Barkley (from USC) looked better in the second half after his slow start.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Chicago played 25 points better than San Francisco.
The Colts never trailed in this one. After forcing a three-and-out, the Colts marched 51 yards in seven plays capped by Andrew Luck's 7-yard TD pass to Dwayne Allen. They would connect on another in the first quarter and three on the way to a 24-3 halftime lead. I'm usually not one to make comments like "that team came out flat" or "is playing out the string" as I really believe NFL teams continue to give their best effort out of professional pride (especially in front of a national TV audience and their peers), but it's hard to remember a time seeing a team come out so unprepared and uninspired as the Jets. The Colts are obviously playing better than they were earlier in the season, but it's hard to truly judge when the Jets offered such weak opposition on Monday night.
50-50 ATS results
Some people -- especially Cowboys backers -- might say that it was a bad beat when the Vikings scored a touchdown with 25 seconds left in regulation and then missed the two-point conversion to lose by two and get the back-door cover. However, we're still calling it a coin-flip result as the Vikings led 3-0, pulled within the spread at 7-6 in the third quarter and even led 9-7 with 14:11 to play. The game turned after the Cowboys had to punt on their ensuing possession and challenged that punt returner Adam Thielen wasn't down by contact and got the ball at the Minnesota 8-yard line. Dak Prescott hit Dez Bryant with the go-ahead TD on the next play and the Cowboys added a Dan Bailey field goal to set up the final drama. The Vikings outplayed the Cowboys most of the game, but they were hurt by an offense that settled for three field goals and kept the Cowboys in the game. Kudos to Dallas for pulling out its 10th straight win, but we saw that the Cowboys are beatable.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas played 4 points better than Minnesota.
The Packers did lead 21-7 with 4:11 to play on Aaron Ripkowski's 3-yard TD run, but this was mostly a toss-up. Defense dominated as both teams had a hard time moving the ball in the snow and the game was tied 7-7 midway through the third quarter and early into the fourth quarter. It looked like the Packers might get in field goal range until Jordy Nelson got open deep on an Aaron Rodgers scramble and he hit him for a 32-yard TD with 12:42 to play to go up 14-7. When the Packers led 21-7, their backers who had bet them when the line was under a touchdown were safe, but those who bet them at the closing line of -7 almost didn't cover until Nick Novak missed the PAT after the Texans' final score. Injuries continue to keep the Texans from reaching their potential: already without J.J. Watt on defense, they played without Jadeveon Clowney, and RB Lamar Miller and WR Braxton Miller were hurt on offense during the game.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Green Bay played 6 points better than Houston.
This game was the hardest to categorize this week. If you had a Buffalo +3 ticket, you probably feel like you suffered a bad beat as the Bills led 24-9 midway through the third quarter. However, the Raiders dominated from there and ended up leading by more than the spread when they took a 30-24 lead on Derek Carr's 37-yard TD pass to Amari Cooper with 14:08 to play and then won by 14. So, I'll call it a coin-flip overall. The Raiders' offense continues to dominate, but while the defense still has issues, Khalil Mack is looking more and more like an impact defensive player who can close out games.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Buffalo played 2 points better than Oakland.
This could have gone either way. The Chargers held spread-covering leads of 7-0 and 14-7 in the first half and also went ahead 21-17 on Tyrell Williams' 40-yard TD pass from Philip Riverswith 1:33 left in the third quarter. However, Jameis Winston rallied the Buccaneers as Roberto Aguayopulled them within 21-20 with a 35-yard field goal (and isn't every Aguayo kick an adventure when you have bucks on the Bucs?) and then they took the lead on Winston's 12-yard TD pass to Cameron Brate with 9:01 to play. The Bucs won their fourth straight and look like they're ready to contend for a playoff spot down the stretch as Winston continues to improve with a bend-but-don't-break defense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tampa Bay played 3 points better than San Diego.
