[h=1]How to bet Oakland-Kansas City[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 14 games, starting with Thursday night's Oakland-Kansas City matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs[/h]Spread: Opened Kansas City -3; now Kansas City -3
Total: Opened 46.5; now 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent pick Oakland
Public perception: The Raiders' bandwagon continues to fill up as they lead the AFC West and are tied with the New England Patriots for the top record in the AFC at 10-2. It doesn't hurt they're also tied for the third-best record at 8-4 against the spread for their backers, even covering as three-point favorites last week after trailing the Bills by 15 in the third quarter.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps also jumped on the Raiders at the books that offered +3.5, but those are long gone, and the sharps are split with the line at 3.
Dave Tuley's take: Like everyone else, I agree it's tempting to take the Raiders plus points, but I'm concerned by the fact the Chiefs went into Oakland earlier this year and dealt the Raiders one of their two losses, rather convincingly at 26-10. Now the Chiefs get them at home, where they're 4-1 but only 1-4 ATS, but there's much less of a Chiefs' win/non-cover with the +3.5 possibilities gone.
The over looks like a better bet. The Raiders are 10-2 with the over, including six in a row. The Chiefs were the league's top under team at 8-4; however, they've gone over in their past two games as they've adapted to getting in shootouts. This total appears to be set a little low, probably due to the Chiefs' defensive reputation, though actually they're No. 29 in total defense with 384.9 yards allowed per game, just ahead of Oakland at No. 30. The Chiefs have a knack for forcing turnovers, but those can leads to points, too, as we saw last week in Atlanta.
Pick: Over 46; lean to Oakland +3.
Rufus Peabody: On the surface, it looks like Kansas City benefited from some good fortune again in beating Atlanta by one on a "pick-two." However, Kansas City was the better team all around, averaging a season-high 8.7 yards per play and 10.2 YPP on offense, while holding Atlanta to 6.3 YPP. Kansas City graded out as eight points better than Atlanta, controlling for home-field advantage and opponent strength. Oakland, despite its come-from-behind win, graded out slightly below average due in part to a run defense that was gouged for 6.7 yards per rush by Buffalo's running backs.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody line: Kansas City -4.7; Total: 47.1
Erin Rynning: These two teams boast an impressive 19-4 combined straight-up record; however, it's clear they've both overachieved so far in 2016. Looking simply at yards gained and allowed, the Raiders have barely outgained their opposition this season, while the Chiefs show a clear deficit. Kansas City was the better team in their first matchup, winning 26-10 with its multidimensional offense causing problems for the Raiders. The Raiders have overcome all obstacles this season, and they have an impressive 5-0 mark on the road. Still, my numbers are spot-on with the widely available betting numbers, making this game a clear pass.
Pick: Pass
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]John Parolin
53.5 receiving yards by Tyreek Hill (O/U -110)
Hill is averaging five receptions for 59 yards per game since Week 8, a stretch highlighted by at least 50 receiving yards in five of the six games and (most promisingly) an average of 7.5 targets per game. Hill is an explosive playmaker -- his 40-yard dash time was regularly sub-4.3 in the pre-draft process, and he's shown that speed in games. Hill has posted at least 10 yards after the catch on eight receptions this season, more than twice as many as any other Chiefs wide receiver.
His competition also gives reason for optimism. The Raiders' defense is averaging 5.8 yards after catch per reception allowed this season, worst in the league. Oakland's defense has been a big-play magnet in all the wrong ways -- the Raiders have allowed at least 20 yards after the catch on 16 different pass plays this season, second most in the league, and an NFL-high five of those have gone for touchdowns. Hill is the kind of athlete who could get 54 receiving yards on one play, especially if the Raiders miss tackles the way they have this season.
The play: Over
3.5 combined sacks by both teams (Over -120, Under EVEN)
These teams combined for three sacks in Week 6, and with the "even" line adding extra incentive, it looks solid on the surface. Don't expect history to repeat itself for a few reasons, starting with Justin Houston. The Chiefs' edge-rusher extraordinaire missed the Week 6 matchup, and his presence is always notable, considering that only J.J. Watt and Von Miller have more sacks than he does since his 2010 rookie season. His return sparked a traditionally fearsome rush; since that Week 6 game, the Chiefs have 19 sacks (fourth most in the league). Dee Ford has also been a strong pass-rusher this season, compiling 10.0 sacks.
But it's not just Houston's presence, as both teams have improved their pass rushes of late. Oakland's Khalil Mack has at least one sack in seven straight games, the longest active streak in the league. Mack started with a single sack in his first five, a trend consistent with his performance last year. Mack's 2015 campaign ended with him becoming the first player in NFL history to be named AP first-team All-Pro at two different positions. Mack had 5.0 sacks in his first 10 games last year before three straight games with multiple sacks, and 10 total in his past six games. Since Week 6, the Raiders have 13 sacks (tied for 16th). The addition of Houston, prowess of Mack down the stretch and overall competence of both team's rushes lead us to assume they'll get one more sack than Week 6.
The play: Over (-120)
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 14 games, starting with Thursday night's Oakland-Kansas City matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Total: Opened 46.5; now 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent pick Oakland
Public perception: The Raiders' bandwagon continues to fill up as they lead the AFC West and are tied with the New England Patriots for the top record in the AFC at 10-2. It doesn't hurt they're also tied for the third-best record at 8-4 against the spread for their backers, even covering as three-point favorites last week after trailing the Bills by 15 in the third quarter.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps also jumped on the Raiders at the books that offered +3.5, but those are long gone, and the sharps are split with the line at 3.
Dave Tuley's take: Like everyone else, I agree it's tempting to take the Raiders plus points, but I'm concerned by the fact the Chiefs went into Oakland earlier this year and dealt the Raiders one of their two losses, rather convincingly at 26-10. Now the Chiefs get them at home, where they're 4-1 but only 1-4 ATS, but there's much less of a Chiefs' win/non-cover with the +3.5 possibilities gone.
The over looks like a better bet. The Raiders are 10-2 with the over, including six in a row. The Chiefs were the league's top under team at 8-4; however, they've gone over in their past two games as they've adapted to getting in shootouts. This total appears to be set a little low, probably due to the Chiefs' defensive reputation, though actually they're No. 29 in total defense with 384.9 yards allowed per game, just ahead of Oakland at No. 30. The Chiefs have a knack for forcing turnovers, but those can leads to points, too, as we saw last week in Atlanta.
Pick: Over 46; lean to Oakland +3.
Rufus Peabody: On the surface, it looks like Kansas City benefited from some good fortune again in beating Atlanta by one on a "pick-two." However, Kansas City was the better team all around, averaging a season-high 8.7 yards per play and 10.2 YPP on offense, while holding Atlanta to 6.3 YPP. Kansas City graded out as eight points better than Atlanta, controlling for home-field advantage and opponent strength. Oakland, despite its come-from-behind win, graded out slightly below average due in part to a run defense that was gouged for 6.7 yards per rush by Buffalo's running backs.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody line: Kansas City -4.7; Total: 47.1
Erin Rynning: These two teams boast an impressive 19-4 combined straight-up record; however, it's clear they've both overachieved so far in 2016. Looking simply at yards gained and allowed, the Raiders have barely outgained their opposition this season, while the Chiefs show a clear deficit. Kansas City was the better team in their first matchup, winning 26-10 with its multidimensional offense causing problems for the Raiders. The Raiders have overcome all obstacles this season, and they have an impressive 5-0 mark on the road. Still, my numbers are spot-on with the widely available betting numbers, making this game a clear pass.
Pick: Pass
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]John Parolin
53.5 receiving yards by Tyreek Hill (O/U -110)
Hill is averaging five receptions for 59 yards per game since Week 8, a stretch highlighted by at least 50 receiving yards in five of the six games and (most promisingly) an average of 7.5 targets per game. Hill is an explosive playmaker -- his 40-yard dash time was regularly sub-4.3 in the pre-draft process, and he's shown that speed in games. Hill has posted at least 10 yards after the catch on eight receptions this season, more than twice as many as any other Chiefs wide receiver.
His competition also gives reason for optimism. The Raiders' defense is averaging 5.8 yards after catch per reception allowed this season, worst in the league. Oakland's defense has been a big-play magnet in all the wrong ways -- the Raiders have allowed at least 20 yards after the catch on 16 different pass plays this season, second most in the league, and an NFL-high five of those have gone for touchdowns. Hill is the kind of athlete who could get 54 receiving yards on one play, especially if the Raiders miss tackles the way they have this season.
The play: Over
3.5 combined sacks by both teams (Over -120, Under EVEN)
These teams combined for three sacks in Week 6, and with the "even" line adding extra incentive, it looks solid on the surface. Don't expect history to repeat itself for a few reasons, starting with Justin Houston. The Chiefs' edge-rusher extraordinaire missed the Week 6 matchup, and his presence is always notable, considering that only J.J. Watt and Von Miller have more sacks than he does since his 2010 rookie season. His return sparked a traditionally fearsome rush; since that Week 6 game, the Chiefs have 19 sacks (fourth most in the league). Dee Ford has also been a strong pass-rusher this season, compiling 10.0 sacks.
But it's not just Houston's presence, as both teams have improved their pass rushes of late. Oakland's Khalil Mack has at least one sack in seven straight games, the longest active streak in the league. Mack started with a single sack in his first five, a trend consistent with his performance last year. Mack's 2015 campaign ended with him becoming the first player in NFL history to be named AP first-team All-Pro at two different positions. Mack had 5.0 sacks in his first 10 games last year before three straight games with multiple sacks, and 10 total in his past six games. Since Week 6, the Raiders have 13 sacks (tied for 16th). The addition of Houston, prowess of Mack down the stretch and overall competence of both team's rushes lead us to assume they'll get one more sack than Week 6.
The play: Over (-120)
