Betting guide for UFC 206

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[h=1]Betting guide for UFC 206[/h]Reed Kuhn
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER

It seems that the pattern under new UFC ownership is that every other pay-per-view event is a blockbuster card. And this is the other, other card caught between New York's UFC 205, and the year-end blowout in Las Vegas for UFC 207. But despite lacking the marketing luster, UFC 206 quietly has some very interesting matchups, several of which will influence title pictures in several divisions.
The majority of the card has tight betting odds, and there are several head scratchers among them. So let's take a close look at three key matchups, and see where the betting value lies.

[h=3]Middleweight matchup: No. 10 Tim Kennedy (-145) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+125)[/h]<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>

It's a strange turn of events that led Kennedy from facing former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans at UFC 205, to Toronto to face former welterweight and TUF winner Kelvin Gastelum. At the very least, Kennedy will be facing a fighter 20-30 pounds lighter on fight night than he trained for. Meanwhile, Gastelum was prepared to face former lightweight Donald Cerrone, but now takes on his teammate Kennedy, who is one of the larger middleweights on the roster. That context is necessary when evaluating performance metrics in this matchup, as they were primarily earned against opponents of different size.
Despite Conor McGregor making division switching all the rage, the reality of body mass is relevant in a matchup that is likely to see plenty of time at close range, either in the clinch, or on the ground.


On paper, Gastelum's striking is more technical, he's accurate while putting on an aggressive pace. Kennedy, meanwhile, has seen his striking improve during the years, to the point where he bested current middleweight champion Michael Bisping for five straight rounds. But standing at a distance is not typically Kennedy's game plan, and we should expect him to initiate takedowns, or wait for Gastelum's forward pressure to work against him. If Kennedy does get it to the ground, expect the strength difference to take effect. Few fighters are as stifling on the mat as Kennedy, who has frequently advanced positions, used relentless ground and pound, and forced submissions.
Insider recommends: The market has been coming in heavily on Gastelum, pushing Kennedy's line from a peak of -170, down to -145 with two days to go. Our projections don't agree with this movement, leaning Kennedy even without adjusting for the division mismatch. The price for Kennedy is already reasonable for a straight play, and could become even cheaper after weigh-ins.

[h=3]Welterweight: No. 5 Donald Cerrone (-280) vs. No. 14 Matt Brown(+240)[/h]This may be the "People's Main Event" of the evening, as both Cerrone and Brown each draw fans for their anytime/anywhere style of fighting. Combining the two against each other makes this matchup an early favorite for Fight of the Night, and one that could also end violently. Together, these two have tallied a whopping 24 knockdowns between them, though Cerrone gets a clear edge on a strike-per-strike basis for power. While his resume boasts some resilient performances, Brown is most certainly on a slide having dropped four of his past five fights, albeit to top talent.
The damage he's taken may also be adding up, as he appears to be unusually susceptible to body strikes. And that's a potentially fatal flaw against one of the more diverse strikers in the UFC, Cerrone. Cowboy throws a very mixed attack of punches and kicks, and is fully capable of crumpling Brown if he takes the body/head/body/head approach to his striking. While Brown arguably has the better wrestling, it's negated by Cerrone's excellent takedown defense and dangerous guard game.
Insider recommends: On a card full of tight betting odds, Cerrone's are an outlier, as he is the biggest favorite on the card despite remaining under the -300 barrier. And we agree with his favorable chances against Brown. At this price, many will pair Cerrone in a parlay, which is a safe way to boost value on another pick. However, it's hard to predict totals against the gritty Brown in a three-round fight, as he has survived near finishes only to come back and win. We could see him surviving some near misses here as well, but not enough to take two rounds on the cards or threaten a finish of his own.

[h=3]Interim Featherweight Championship: No. 2 Max Holloway (-210) vs. No. 5 Anthony Pettis (+175)[/h]


</photo4></photo3></p>It's hard to believe after reviewing Holloway's long UFC career, and current nine-fight win streak, that he's just 25 years old. Not that long ago, Pettis was similarly a streaking young gun, fearless in stand-up striking, and getting past more experienced talent one by one. Pettis' stock has fallen since losing the lightweight title, while Holloway's has steadily inched forward, finally intersecting for an interim title, and eventual matchup with Jose Aldo to unify the belts.


Both fighters are accurate strikers, who prefer to dictate the pace. They both can't do that here, but vying to control the cage should lead to solid action along the way. While both have scored a good share of knockdowns, both are also resilient against strikes and have never been knocked down. If either has a power advantage, it's Pettis, who's also more likely to use head kicks as part of his attack. Holloway, meanwhile, gets the edge on accuracy. Regardless, it's very even in the stand-up game, and we should see two elite strikers trading leather for at least a few rounds.
An unknown here is whether Holloway will attempt to wrestle Pettis, which has been done effectively by some of Pettis' prior opponents. Holloway's metrics look better on paper, but on very limited offensive sample size. More typically, he's the one defending takedowns to keep a fight standing. That probably won't be an issue against Pettis, who has preferred to stand and trade.
Insider recommends: We see this as closer to 50/50 than the rest of the market. Holloway's trajectory and streak are hard to discount, but Pettis has long been in the spotlight of elite matchups while Holloway is less tested. The two should choose opt for a striking duel, and the early rounds are likely to reveal if this will be a toss-up split decision, or if one fighter came in with the better game plan to edge the other consistently. We'll lean toward a small play on Pettis for the upset, as long as his price is above +150. More reliably, we expect this will take several rounds to evolve, making the over 2.5 rounds at -220 parlay fodder.
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