[h=1]Early college football bowl betting guide[/h]Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
In the end, the preseason favorites took home the hardware in every Power 5 conference save the Big Ten, where the preseason favorite (Ohio State) represented the league in the College Football Playoff anyway. Plenty of drama occurred along the way despite few surprises at the finish.
Now it's time to look ahead to the bowls, the playoff and what lies ahead for college football's most dysfunctional conference. Here's our early betting look at bowl season, including early wagering opportunities.
[h=2]Games of interest[/h]
Miami Hurricanes (-3) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
We love the way Mark Richt prepares his teams for the postseason, as he's a master at making sure the players don't do too much or too little in all those bowl practices and peak at just the right time. After Richt's successful 8-4 debut with a lot of underclassmen in the lineup, enthusiasm around the Miami program is as high as it has been in years. This team will be excited to play, and the Canes look like a rapidly maturing outfit with a good chance to put it together and play their best game of the year in the bowl. A solid partisan crowd could be a difference-maker.
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West Virginia has a good defensive team with good chemistry, but the offense is thin at receiver and has struggled to move the ball through the air. The Mountaineers' fate was determined early, as they headed into the last week of the season essentially guaranteed no better or worse than this bowl berth and third place in the Big 12. The team is 2-0 and 1-1 against the spread post-Oklahoma, but hasn't played with the same edge since that whipping at the hands of the Sooners.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+3) vs. Tennessee Volunteers
We were hoping that Iowa would be the designated instrument with which to fade this Tennessee team in turmoil, but Nebraska will probably suffice. Huskers backers will get a top-notch bowl coach, improved team health and a squad that thinks this Music City date with Tennessee is a bigger deal than the Vols do. Tennessee is a fractured team drifting further apart despite the efforts of a few outstanding leaders. The bottom line in this program is that no one believes anymore.
Years of the same dogmatic message have yielded the same mistakes again and again, and now neither the players nor the fan base is really buying what Butch Jones is selling any longer. Instability in the administration might save Jones' job temporarily, but this was a sinking ship long before the Commodore broadside punched a hole in the hull.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-12) vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks
This price is only in check because the Bulldogs have scuffled against the three physically inferior teams on the schedule this year. But South Alabama, Massachusetts and Samford were a long time ago, and this team has notched wins over Texas A&M and Ole Miss since then. The youthful lineup has shown steady progress, and the team was playing with a lot more confidence in November. Nick Fitzgerald may be just a sophomore, but he's already the second-best quarterback Dan Mullen has had at State.
A 6-6 MAC squad isn't the most inspiring opponent for an SEC West team that was on top of the college football world just two Novembers ago, and it's not hard to see the Dogs showing up with something less than their A-game. But if they do manage to bring start-to-finish focus to the bowl prep, Miami will be outmanned. There's a significant rosterwide size and speed differential, and that means that with sufficient desire to win, State can take this one along the lines of 49-14.
[h=2]Early playoff outlook[/h]The committee made Clemson the No. 2 seed, but the oddsmakers see Ohio State as the favorite, installing the Buckeyes as 3.5-point chalk. In the other semifinal, Alabama lays Washington 15.5, the largest price on any game on the postseason slate. Here's the how the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sees the foursome's chances of winning it all:
Alabama 2-5
Ohio State 7-2
Clemson 7-1
Washington 18-1
The quarterback talent in this group is striking. Clemson's Deshaun Watson and Ohio State's J.T. Barrett are seasoned vets and leadership hall of famers. Washington's second-year man Jake Browning is a top-five efficiency guy and ace deep-ball artist, while Alabama's Jalen Hurts is the unflappable freshman with the gliding speed. All four offenses have a capable running game to boot, but the winners might be the defenses that manage to affect the talented opposing quarterback the most.
The question for Washington is whether the team can find a way to protect Browning. The Huskies' offensive line is the team's weak link, and it was exposed against USC. Don't count the Huskies out automatically, though. Chris Petersen and his staff can tell from the film that the Huskies will need creative answers when it comes to blocking Alabama's defenders, and they have the playmakers to manufacture some offense despite losing the battle at the line of scrimmage. The Huskies won't be able to sustain drives, but this bunch is explosive, and if they can find just a small handful of big plays on offense, the defense might be good enough to keep Washington in the game. This 2016 Huskies team hasn't been tagged as an underdog until now, and Petersen is just 5-5 taking points at Washington, but at Boise State he was 6-1 ATS as a 'dog, with five outright victories.
The other semifinal poses the question of whether Ohio State can improve its biggest weakness -- the downfield passing game -- enough to capitalize on Clemson's biggest weakness, which is a secondary that's had assignment and coverage issues at times. It's also a rematch of the 2014 Orange Bowl, where Clemson served Urban Meyer his second loss at Ohio State. Dabo Swinney remains the only coach besides Lloyd Carr to get the best of Meyer in a bowl game.
[h=2]Bowl selection winners[/h]
Auburn Tigers
An 8-4 record doesn't usually land you the most coveted SEC bowl slot and a date with a conference champ and blue-blood program, but no SEC team save Alabama won more than eight games in a down year for the league. Auburn had the worst head-to-head record within the pool of 8-4 teams, all of which ended the season on a low note. But Auburn and a healthy Sean White at quarterback would be favored over Florida, Tennessee or Texas A&M right now. Not counting its turn as a semifinal game in 2014, the Sugar Bowl hasn't been decided by single digits since the 2012 game between Michigan and Virginia Tech. That should change, as I think two good teams put on a high-scoring show that comes down to the wire.
USC Trojans
The Trojans weren't even division champs, but they played like they were down the stretch and -- like Auburn -- landed what is traditionally their league's biggest prize.
Gator Bowl
For the second time in three years, the 70-year old bowl game now officially and temporarily dubbed the TaxSlayer Bowl hosts an SEC fan base starved for post-New Year's bowl action. Two years ago, Tennessee hadn't played in January since 2008, and Vol fans came in droves to this bowl to watch their team demolish Iowa. The Wildcats played in January in their last postseason appearance, in Birmingham, Alabama, in 2011, but they haven't played in a traditional New Year's Day bowl since the 1998 season. A fired up Big Blue Nation will invade Jacksonville in force.
Teams with high Academic Progress Rate scores
We wrote last year: "The inclusion of 5-7 teams adds a new wrinkle to handicapping the bowl season. It will be interesting to see how many of these teams play with something to prove after having to hear how they don't really deserve a bid ... at least one team will get mad about proving its worth because of this, and it's the handicapper's job to find it."
Well, the three 5-7 teams were 3-0 straight up and ATS last year, and there's no question that the general scorn for the "bloated" bowl season motivated these teams, two of the three significantly. The above still applies, but slightly less so now and still less so as we go forward. Last season was the time to really pursue that angle, and as 5-7 teams steadily become an established fixture in bowl season, the players will stop hearing that they don't belong and fewer and fewer teams will be fueled by it in any meaningful way.
[h=2]Bowl selection losers[/h]
Air Force Falcons
Air Force was 9-3, won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, finished the year with five straight wins and beat Boise State the last week of the season, but the Mountain West's three most desirable bowl assignments went elsewhere. The Falcons were left with an uninspiring matchup with a 6-6 South Alabama team. San Diego State and Wyoming will play non-Power 5 conference big shots in Houston and BYU, while Boise State gets a crack at a Big 12 foe in Baylor. This is definitely a situation to watch, as Air Force players have vented their frustration as freely as their fans.
Temple Owls
Not only did Temple lose head coach Matt Rhule, the Owls also got the short end of the American's bowl selection process despite winning the league's championship. Most of the league's affiliated bowls are in Florida (or off the coast of Florida), but instead of drawing a destination game in a warm climate that would excite players and fans alike, the Owls were served leftovers, forced to return to Annapolis, Maryland, and the same stadium in which they played their last game. At least it will bring back good memories. But the bowl blew this one doubly because if the Owls must go to the Military Bowl, they could at least have been matched up with northeast rival Boston College and former head coach Steve Addazio instead of Wake Forest.
Texas A&M and Tennessee
Dreams of relevance end with four losses, bowl matchups with unranked underdogs from Big Eight country and a postseason commute instead of a destination.
[h=2]Interim coaches take the stage[/h]So far Temple, South Florida, Western Kentucky, Houston and Baylor will have lame duck interim staffs coaching their teams' bowl games. That list is sure to expand, and those games warrant special attention. Teams in that circumstance rarely play their middling B-game. They typically either rally around the interim staff and prepare and play like they're on a mission, or they fracture and turn in a C performance indicative of indifferent preparation. We'll be watching all of these teams closely to get an accurate read; all we can tell you for now is that you can bank on Baylor coming to play with a purpose. When handicapping these situations, don't forget the assistants. Staffs are often shorthanded and juggling responsibilities, and there are frequently first-time playcallers in a coordinator role.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]Temple lost to Army to open the season, then rattled off 12 straight covers to take home college football's ATS crown.
Colorado began the season with 10 consecutive covers, but finished with back-to-back ATS losses.
Baylor, Boise State, South Alabama, Southern Mississippi and TCU all ended the season 3-9 ATS and are the only bowl teams to cover fewer than four games.
Both Quick Lane Bowl participants, Boston College and Maryland, failed to beat an FBS team with a winning record this year.
Some teams are running into familiar foes they didn't expect to see again. Popeyes Bahamas Bowl entrants Old Dominion and Eastern Michigan played both this September and last, with the Monarchs winning both times. New Mexico and UTSA split a pair of games in 2013 and 2014.
Houston's win over Louisville was the Cougars' only cover in their last seven games, but opposing sideline boss Rocky Long of San Diego State is just 3-7 straight up and ATS in bowl games.
Utah's Kyle Whittingham is 9-1 in bowl games, and only Petersen has beaten him.
The Ohio Bobcats saw every game save the opener go under the total, and bowl partner Troy might be a willing participant despite a reputation for warp-speed offense. The Trojans have gone under in seven of their past nine games, even without once facing a total in the sixties.
Louisiana Tech and New Mexico have both seen 10 games go over the total, while 11 of Pittsburgh's have done the same. Arkansas State has been the biggest under team in a bowl, sending just two games over the total all year.
No bowl team has failed to cover a road game this year, while Wisconsin, Minnesota, BYU and Temple are all perfect versus the number away from home.
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
In the end, the preseason favorites took home the hardware in every Power 5 conference save the Big Ten, where the preseason favorite (Ohio State) represented the league in the College Football Playoff anyway. Plenty of drama occurred along the way despite few surprises at the finish.
Now it's time to look ahead to the bowls, the playoff and what lies ahead for college football's most dysfunctional conference. Here's our early betting look at bowl season, including early wagering opportunities.
[h=2]Games of interest[/h]
We love the way Mark Richt prepares his teams for the postseason, as he's a master at making sure the players don't do too much or too little in all those bowl practices and peak at just the right time. After Richt's successful 8-4 debut with a lot of underclassmen in the lineup, enthusiasm around the Miami program is as high as it has been in years. This team will be excited to play, and the Canes look like a rapidly maturing outfit with a good chance to put it together and play their best game of the year in the bowl. A solid partisan crowd could be a difference-maker.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
West Virginia has a good defensive team with good chemistry, but the offense is thin at receiver and has struggled to move the ball through the air. The Mountaineers' fate was determined early, as they headed into the last week of the season essentially guaranteed no better or worse than this bowl berth and third place in the Big 12. The team is 2-0 and 1-1 against the spread post-Oklahoma, but hasn't played with the same edge since that whipping at the hands of the Sooners.
We were hoping that Iowa would be the designated instrument with which to fade this Tennessee team in turmoil, but Nebraska will probably suffice. Huskers backers will get a top-notch bowl coach, improved team health and a squad that thinks this Music City date with Tennessee is a bigger deal than the Vols do. Tennessee is a fractured team drifting further apart despite the efforts of a few outstanding leaders. The bottom line in this program is that no one believes anymore.
Years of the same dogmatic message have yielded the same mistakes again and again, and now neither the players nor the fan base is really buying what Butch Jones is selling any longer. Instability in the administration might save Jones' job temporarily, but this was a sinking ship long before the Commodore broadside punched a hole in the hull.
This price is only in check because the Bulldogs have scuffled against the three physically inferior teams on the schedule this year. But South Alabama, Massachusetts and Samford were a long time ago, and this team has notched wins over Texas A&M and Ole Miss since then. The youthful lineup has shown steady progress, and the team was playing with a lot more confidence in November. Nick Fitzgerald may be just a sophomore, but he's already the second-best quarterback Dan Mullen has had at State.
A 6-6 MAC squad isn't the most inspiring opponent for an SEC West team that was on top of the college football world just two Novembers ago, and it's not hard to see the Dogs showing up with something less than their A-game. But if they do manage to bring start-to-finish focus to the bowl prep, Miami will be outmanned. There's a significant rosterwide size and speed differential, and that means that with sufficient desire to win, State can take this one along the lines of 49-14.
[h=2]Early playoff outlook[/h]The committee made Clemson the No. 2 seed, but the oddsmakers see Ohio State as the favorite, installing the Buckeyes as 3.5-point chalk. In the other semifinal, Alabama lays Washington 15.5, the largest price on any game on the postseason slate. Here's the how the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sees the foursome's chances of winning it all:
Alabama 2-5
Ohio State 7-2
Clemson 7-1
Washington 18-1
The quarterback talent in this group is striking. Clemson's Deshaun Watson and Ohio State's J.T. Barrett are seasoned vets and leadership hall of famers. Washington's second-year man Jake Browning is a top-five efficiency guy and ace deep-ball artist, while Alabama's Jalen Hurts is the unflappable freshman with the gliding speed. All four offenses have a capable running game to boot, but the winners might be the defenses that manage to affect the talented opposing quarterback the most.
The question for Washington is whether the team can find a way to protect Browning. The Huskies' offensive line is the team's weak link, and it was exposed against USC. Don't count the Huskies out automatically, though. Chris Petersen and his staff can tell from the film that the Huskies will need creative answers when it comes to blocking Alabama's defenders, and they have the playmakers to manufacture some offense despite losing the battle at the line of scrimmage. The Huskies won't be able to sustain drives, but this bunch is explosive, and if they can find just a small handful of big plays on offense, the defense might be good enough to keep Washington in the game. This 2016 Huskies team hasn't been tagged as an underdog until now, and Petersen is just 5-5 taking points at Washington, but at Boise State he was 6-1 ATS as a 'dog, with five outright victories.
The other semifinal poses the question of whether Ohio State can improve its biggest weakness -- the downfield passing game -- enough to capitalize on Clemson's biggest weakness, which is a secondary that's had assignment and coverage issues at times. It's also a rematch of the 2014 Orange Bowl, where Clemson served Urban Meyer his second loss at Ohio State. Dabo Swinney remains the only coach besides Lloyd Carr to get the best of Meyer in a bowl game.
[h=2]Bowl selection winners[/h]
An 8-4 record doesn't usually land you the most coveted SEC bowl slot and a date with a conference champ and blue-blood program, but no SEC team save Alabama won more than eight games in a down year for the league. Auburn had the worst head-to-head record within the pool of 8-4 teams, all of which ended the season on a low note. But Auburn and a healthy Sean White at quarterback would be favored over Florida, Tennessee or Texas A&M right now. Not counting its turn as a semifinal game in 2014, the Sugar Bowl hasn't been decided by single digits since the 2012 game between Michigan and Virginia Tech. That should change, as I think two good teams put on a high-scoring show that comes down to the wire.
USC Trojans
The Trojans weren't even division champs, but they played like they were down the stretch and -- like Auburn -- landed what is traditionally their league's biggest prize.
Gator Bowl
For the second time in three years, the 70-year old bowl game now officially and temporarily dubbed the TaxSlayer Bowl hosts an SEC fan base starved for post-New Year's bowl action. Two years ago, Tennessee hadn't played in January since 2008, and Vol fans came in droves to this bowl to watch their team demolish Iowa. The Wildcats played in January in their last postseason appearance, in Birmingham, Alabama, in 2011, but they haven't played in a traditional New Year's Day bowl since the 1998 season. A fired up Big Blue Nation will invade Jacksonville in force.
Teams with high Academic Progress Rate scores
We wrote last year: "The inclusion of 5-7 teams adds a new wrinkle to handicapping the bowl season. It will be interesting to see how many of these teams play with something to prove after having to hear how they don't really deserve a bid ... at least one team will get mad about proving its worth because of this, and it's the handicapper's job to find it."
Well, the three 5-7 teams were 3-0 straight up and ATS last year, and there's no question that the general scorn for the "bloated" bowl season motivated these teams, two of the three significantly. The above still applies, but slightly less so now and still less so as we go forward. Last season was the time to really pursue that angle, and as 5-7 teams steadily become an established fixture in bowl season, the players will stop hearing that they don't belong and fewer and fewer teams will be fueled by it in any meaningful way.
[h=2]Bowl selection losers[/h]
Air Force Falcons
Air Force was 9-3, won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, finished the year with five straight wins and beat Boise State the last week of the season, but the Mountain West's three most desirable bowl assignments went elsewhere. The Falcons were left with an uninspiring matchup with a 6-6 South Alabama team. San Diego State and Wyoming will play non-Power 5 conference big shots in Houston and BYU, while Boise State gets a crack at a Big 12 foe in Baylor. This is definitely a situation to watch, as Air Force players have vented their frustration as freely as their fans.
Temple Owls
Not only did Temple lose head coach Matt Rhule, the Owls also got the short end of the American's bowl selection process despite winning the league's championship. Most of the league's affiliated bowls are in Florida (or off the coast of Florida), but instead of drawing a destination game in a warm climate that would excite players and fans alike, the Owls were served leftovers, forced to return to Annapolis, Maryland, and the same stadium in which they played their last game. At least it will bring back good memories. But the bowl blew this one doubly because if the Owls must go to the Military Bowl, they could at least have been matched up with northeast rival Boston College and former head coach Steve Addazio instead of Wake Forest.
Texas A&M and Tennessee
Dreams of relevance end with four losses, bowl matchups with unranked underdogs from Big Eight country and a postseason commute instead of a destination.
[h=2]Interim coaches take the stage[/h]So far Temple, South Florida, Western Kentucky, Houston and Baylor will have lame duck interim staffs coaching their teams' bowl games. That list is sure to expand, and those games warrant special attention. Teams in that circumstance rarely play their middling B-game. They typically either rally around the interim staff and prepare and play like they're on a mission, or they fracture and turn in a C performance indicative of indifferent preparation. We'll be watching all of these teams closely to get an accurate read; all we can tell you for now is that you can bank on Baylor coming to play with a purpose. When handicapping these situations, don't forget the assistants. Staffs are often shorthanded and juggling responsibilities, and there are frequently first-time playcallers in a coordinator role.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]Temple lost to Army to open the season, then rattled off 12 straight covers to take home college football's ATS crown.
Colorado began the season with 10 consecutive covers, but finished with back-to-back ATS losses.
Baylor, Boise State, South Alabama, Southern Mississippi and TCU all ended the season 3-9 ATS and are the only bowl teams to cover fewer than four games.
Both Quick Lane Bowl participants, Boston College and Maryland, failed to beat an FBS team with a winning record this year.
Some teams are running into familiar foes they didn't expect to see again. Popeyes Bahamas Bowl entrants Old Dominion and Eastern Michigan played both this September and last, with the Monarchs winning both times. New Mexico and UTSA split a pair of games in 2013 and 2014.
Houston's win over Louisville was the Cougars' only cover in their last seven games, but opposing sideline boss Rocky Long of San Diego State is just 3-7 straight up and ATS in bowl games.
Utah's Kyle Whittingham is 9-1 in bowl games, and only Petersen has beaten him.
The Ohio Bobcats saw every game save the opener go under the total, and bowl partner Troy might be a willing participant despite a reputation for warp-speed offense. The Trojans have gone under in seven of their past nine games, even without once facing a total in the sixties.
Louisiana Tech and New Mexico have both seen 10 games go over the total, while 11 of Pittsburgh's have done the same. Arkansas State has been the biggest under team in a bowl, sending just two games over the total all year.
No bowl team has failed to cover a road game this year, while Wisconsin, Minnesota, BYU and Temple are all perfect versus the number away from home.
