[h=1]How to bet Dallas-New York[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 14 games, including the Sunday night matchup between Dallas and New York.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants[/h]Spread: Opened Dallas 2.5 (-120); now Dallas -3.5
Total: Opened 47.5; now 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Dallas
Public perception: The public continues to back the Cowboys and with good reason. They've failed to cover their past two games but are still a league-best 9-2-1 ATS
Wiseguys' view: The -2.5 (-120) opener lasted just 25 minutes at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook last Sunday. Sharps also helped push the line from 3 to 3.5 (and it was up to -4 at William Hill, Stations, Boyd Gaming and the Golden Nugget as of this writing on Saturday morning), but most are on the Giants now.
Dave Tuley's take: A lot of handicappers love teams seeking revenge -- the Cowboys suffered their only loss of the season, 20-19, at home to the Giants in Week 1 -- but I prefer taking the team that proved it could beat the other but is still getting points. And more than a field goal? At home? Well, thank you very much.
Granted, the Cowboys have had an impressive season, but the fact is they've actually had coin-flip games three of the past four weeks. The Giants' run defense allows only 91.4 rushing yards per game, and even though I don't expect them to hold Ezekiel Elliott to 51 yards like they did in the opener, the New York defense can still contain him from running wild. The Giants don't have much of a running game, but Eli Manning has the weapons to match the Cowboys in what I expect to be more of a shootout than the first meeting.
The pick: Giants +3.5*.
Rufus Peabody:
Dallas looks to avenge its only loss of the year when they travel to the Meadowlands this weekend. I doubted Dak Prescott early in the year, but my model buys into him more and more every week. The Cowboys' offense has graded out below average in only one of their 12 games this season, and that was Week 1 against New York. It's masked a defense that has been consistently mediocre, with only four games ending with a positive grade. Still, I think the total is inflated, and like the under in this divisional game.
Massey-Peabody Line: Dallas -2.8; Total: 43.9
Pick: Under
Erin Rynning:
All the credit to the Cowboys for their 11 straight wins, but the oddsmakers always catch up. It's tricky to find value in Dallas, as the Cowboys need to win by more than a field goal against their division rival. However, the Giants possess their own set of issues, including the loss of Jason Pierre-Paul for the foreseeable future. The Cowboys' balance on offense figures to give the Giants' defense problems on Sunday night.
Moreover, the New York passing game continues to disappoint. Of course, with their lack of a run game and little creativity on offense, there's simply too much weight on the shoulders of the 20th-ranked passing game in terms of yards per attempt. My numbers were similar to the current betting line, making this contest a clear pass.
Play: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Dallas 26, New York Giants 20
The pick: Dallas and the Under
John Parolin's prop bet picks:
265.5 passing yards by Eli Manning (O/U -110)
The inconsistency of the Giants' passing game is an underlying factor here, but there's a more direct concern. Dallas averages a league-high 4:42 time of possession margin per game over its opponents, while New York's opponents enjoy a 6:20 time of possession advantage over the Giants, a lower margin than every team except Chip Kelly's San Francisco 49ers (6:31).
Plus, the Cowboys' defense is hardly a shutdown unit with 7.1 yards per pass attempt allowed; however, they've limited big plays. Dallas is tied for ninth this season in 15-yard pass plays allowed. Even in the leaner years of the Dallas defense, Eli Manning has struggled to produce in volume against the Cowboys. He's made nine starts in the last five years against Dallas, seven of which came in at under 250 yards. If Dallas controls possession the way they have (and New York concedes it), expect another under.
The play: Under
20.5 completions by Dak Prescott (O/U -110)
There isn't much that Prescott hasn't been good at this season, and play-action passing is no exception. Given the success of the Cowboys' ground game, it's not a surprise that they would use play-action passes -- and Prescott has connected on 75 percent of his throws when faking the run. His 65 play-action completions tie for second most in the league, and 855 yards rank fourth.
The Giants are susceptible here as well. New York has allowed 65 completions on play-action passes, third most in the league and only three back of the league leaders (Lions). Dallas still rushes on 47 percent of plays from scrimmage, the highest in the league, but 20.5 isn't a big ask. Passing on 53 percent of plays has already yielded 20.3 completions per game for Prescott, and he will likely make the linebackers work on Sunday night.
The play: Over
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Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 14 games, including the Sunday night matchup between Dallas and New York.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
Total: Opened 47.5; now 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Dallas
Public perception: The public continues to back the Cowboys and with good reason. They've failed to cover their past two games but are still a league-best 9-2-1 ATS
Wiseguys' view: The -2.5 (-120) opener lasted just 25 minutes at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook last Sunday. Sharps also helped push the line from 3 to 3.5 (and it was up to -4 at William Hill, Stations, Boyd Gaming and the Golden Nugget as of this writing on Saturday morning), but most are on the Giants now.
Dave Tuley's take: A lot of handicappers love teams seeking revenge -- the Cowboys suffered their only loss of the season, 20-19, at home to the Giants in Week 1 -- but I prefer taking the team that proved it could beat the other but is still getting points. And more than a field goal? At home? Well, thank you very much.
Granted, the Cowboys have had an impressive season, but the fact is they've actually had coin-flip games three of the past four weeks. The Giants' run defense allows only 91.4 rushing yards per game, and even though I don't expect them to hold Ezekiel Elliott to 51 yards like they did in the opener, the New York defense can still contain him from running wild. The Giants don't have much of a running game, but Eli Manning has the weapons to match the Cowboys in what I expect to be more of a shootout than the first meeting.
The pick: Giants +3.5*.
Rufus Peabody:
Dallas looks to avenge its only loss of the year when they travel to the Meadowlands this weekend. I doubted Dak Prescott early in the year, but my model buys into him more and more every week. The Cowboys' offense has graded out below average in only one of their 12 games this season, and that was Week 1 against New York. It's masked a defense that has been consistently mediocre, with only four games ending with a positive grade. Still, I think the total is inflated, and like the under in this divisional game.
Massey-Peabody Line: Dallas -2.8; Total: 43.9
Pick: Under
Erin Rynning:
All the credit to the Cowboys for their 11 straight wins, but the oddsmakers always catch up. It's tricky to find value in Dallas, as the Cowboys need to win by more than a field goal against their division rival. However, the Giants possess their own set of issues, including the loss of Jason Pierre-Paul for the foreseeable future. The Cowboys' balance on offense figures to give the Giants' defense problems on Sunday night.
Moreover, the New York passing game continues to disappoint. Of course, with their lack of a run game and little creativity on offense, there's simply too much weight on the shoulders of the 20th-ranked passing game in terms of yards per attempt. My numbers were similar to the current betting line, making this contest a clear pass.
Play: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Dallas 26, New York Giants 20
The pick: Dallas and the Under
John Parolin's prop bet picks:
265.5 passing yards by Eli Manning (O/U -110)
The inconsistency of the Giants' passing game is an underlying factor here, but there's a more direct concern. Dallas averages a league-high 4:42 time of possession margin per game over its opponents, while New York's opponents enjoy a 6:20 time of possession advantage over the Giants, a lower margin than every team except Chip Kelly's San Francisco 49ers (6:31).
Plus, the Cowboys' defense is hardly a shutdown unit with 7.1 yards per pass attempt allowed; however, they've limited big plays. Dallas is tied for ninth this season in 15-yard pass plays allowed. Even in the leaner years of the Dallas defense, Eli Manning has struggled to produce in volume against the Cowboys. He's made nine starts in the last five years against Dallas, seven of which came in at under 250 yards. If Dallas controls possession the way they have (and New York concedes it), expect another under.
The play: Under
20.5 completions by Dak Prescott (O/U -110)
There isn't much that Prescott hasn't been good at this season, and play-action passing is no exception. Given the success of the Cowboys' ground game, it's not a surprise that they would use play-action passes -- and Prescott has connected on 75 percent of his throws when faking the run. His 65 play-action completions tie for second most in the league, and 855 yards rank fourth.
The Giants are susceptible here as well. New York has allowed 65 completions on play-action passes, third most in the league and only three back of the league leaders (Lions). Dallas still rushes on 47 percent of plays from scrimmage, the highest in the league, but 20.5 isn't a big ask. Passing on 53 percent of plays has already yielded 20.3 completions per game for Prescott, and he will likely make the linebackers work on Sunday night.
The play: Over
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