[h=1]How to bet Baltimore-New England[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 14 games, including Monday night's Baltimore-New England matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
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Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Spread: Opened New England -9; now New England -6.5
Total: Opened 45.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Baltimore
Public perception: The public usually loves the Patriots, but the Ravens are getting more support this week (especially when the line was more than a touchdown) as they've won and covered two straight to get back into the playoff picture.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps also jumped on Baltimore as this line opened with New England between -7.5 and -9, and they helped put it down past the key number of 7. It's more split now.
Dave Tuley's take: I bet the Ravens at +7.5 and can't recommend for others to take them now at only +6.5. However, I believe it's still the right side (and I am using them in more than half of my straight-up pools). Even though this is a nondivisional game, it should have big playoff implications for both teams. Joe Flacco is coming off his best game of the season and gives Baltimore a better chance to trade scores with Tom Brady .The Ravens have the No. 1 run defense, and it will be interesting to see if the Patriots even try to challenge that -- we've seen Bill Belichick eschew the running game before and spread the field to make short passes replace the traditional ground game. This should be a cat-and-mouse game between two great coaches, and it should come down to a field goal (and the Ravens have the best in Justin Tucker).
The pick: Lean to Ravens +6.5
Erin Rynning:
The Ravens' offense finally perked up last week, racking up an impressive 496 yards. The offense was weighted down much of the season for various issues, including key injuries along the line, and Flacco working himself into form after a season-ending injury last year. A team can play only who's presented on the schedule. However, as mentioned in my writings, the Patriots' slate of quarterbacks they have opposed is simply dreadful. Last week was basically another "bye week" for the Patriots defense, facing rookie Jared Goff, and the already terrible unit featured a couple of key injuries as well. This will be a step up in class for the Patriots' defense. Of course, there is a fascinating matchup on the flip side with Brady against the Ravens' defense, which is allowing 4.9 yards per play. However, this Ravens' secondary has proved vulnerable, and there are few better than Brady who can exploit that. Obviously, keep an eye on the weather, but as of this writing, the forecast is fine for enough offense on Monday night.
Play: Over
Rufus Peabody:
How much does Rob Gronkowski's injury hurt New England? I went back through the past four seasons and compared New England's Massey-Peabody offensive game grades in games Gronk played to games he did not play (when Brady was healthy too). In games without Gronk, the Patriots rated 2.6 points worse, on average. I don't want to overfit, so I did some more fancy number wizardry (taking a Bayesian approach and allowing a team-season random effect, for the nerds out there), and came up with a number closer to two, which I feel more comfortable using for the adjustment. Without adjusting the Massey-Peabody numbers, New England would be a 10.5-point favorite, but if I adjust (which may overfit), my number is in line with the market's.
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -8.5; Total: 46.1
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 25, Baltimore 18
The pick: New England and the under -- NE -7, 45.5
John Parolin's prop bet
19.5 points by Ravens (O/U -110)
If there is one team in the NFL that doesn't care about playing the Patriots on the road, it's the Ravens, who are the only team with multiple road playoff wins at Gillette Stadium in the Brady era (since 2001). Over the past 10 years, they lead the rest of the NFL with a margin of plus-18 points and turnover differential of plus-7 on the road in Foxborough (including playoff games). In that same 10-year span, the Ravens have played six games at Foxborough, including playoff contests. They are a perfect 6-0 in hitting at least 20 points in that span.
Recent games from their opponent won't tell us much, either. The Patriots' defense has played the 49ers, Jets and Rams in the past three games, three of the worst offenses in football. Before that came overs in back-to-back games against the Seahawks and Bills. With Baltimore fresh off a 38-point effort against the Dolphins, and rookie Kenneth Dixon (4.5 yards per rush) continuing to gain snaps over Terrance West (under 4.0), expect the Ravens to reach a low total.
The play: Over
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 14 games, including Monday night's Baltimore-New England matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Spread: Opened New England -9; now New England -6.5
Total: Opened 45.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Baltimore
Public perception: The public usually loves the Patriots, but the Ravens are getting more support this week (especially when the line was more than a touchdown) as they've won and covered two straight to get back into the playoff picture.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps also jumped on Baltimore as this line opened with New England between -7.5 and -9, and they helped put it down past the key number of 7. It's more split now.
Dave Tuley's take: I bet the Ravens at +7.5 and can't recommend for others to take them now at only +6.5. However, I believe it's still the right side (and I am using them in more than half of my straight-up pools). Even though this is a nondivisional game, it should have big playoff implications for both teams. Joe Flacco is coming off his best game of the season and gives Baltimore a better chance to trade scores with Tom Brady .The Ravens have the No. 1 run defense, and it will be interesting to see if the Patriots even try to challenge that -- we've seen Bill Belichick eschew the running game before and spread the field to make short passes replace the traditional ground game. This should be a cat-and-mouse game between two great coaches, and it should come down to a field goal (and the Ravens have the best in Justin Tucker).
The pick: Lean to Ravens +6.5
Erin Rynning:
The Ravens' offense finally perked up last week, racking up an impressive 496 yards. The offense was weighted down much of the season for various issues, including key injuries along the line, and Flacco working himself into form after a season-ending injury last year. A team can play only who's presented on the schedule. However, as mentioned in my writings, the Patriots' slate of quarterbacks they have opposed is simply dreadful. Last week was basically another "bye week" for the Patriots defense, facing rookie Jared Goff, and the already terrible unit featured a couple of key injuries as well. This will be a step up in class for the Patriots' defense. Of course, there is a fascinating matchup on the flip side with Brady against the Ravens' defense, which is allowing 4.9 yards per play. However, this Ravens' secondary has proved vulnerable, and there are few better than Brady who can exploit that. Obviously, keep an eye on the weather, but as of this writing, the forecast is fine for enough offense on Monday night.
Play: Over
Rufus Peabody:
How much does Rob Gronkowski's injury hurt New England? I went back through the past four seasons and compared New England's Massey-Peabody offensive game grades in games Gronk played to games he did not play (when Brady was healthy too). In games without Gronk, the Patriots rated 2.6 points worse, on average. I don't want to overfit, so I did some more fancy number wizardry (taking a Bayesian approach and allowing a team-season random effect, for the nerds out there), and came up with a number closer to two, which I feel more comfortable using for the adjustment. Without adjusting the Massey-Peabody numbers, New England would be a 10.5-point favorite, but if I adjust (which may overfit), my number is in line with the market's.
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -8.5; Total: 46.1
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 25, Baltimore 18
The pick: New England and the under -- NE -7, 45.5
John Parolin's prop bet
19.5 points by Ravens (O/U -110)
If there is one team in the NFL that doesn't care about playing the Patriots on the road, it's the Ravens, who are the only team with multiple road playoff wins at Gillette Stadium in the Brady era (since 2001). Over the past 10 years, they lead the rest of the NFL with a margin of plus-18 points and turnover differential of plus-7 on the road in Foxborough (including playoff games). In that same 10-year span, the Ravens have played six games at Foxborough, including playoff contests. They are a perfect 6-0 in hitting at least 20 points in that span.
Recent games from their opponent won't tell us much, either. The Patriots' defense has played the 49ers, Jets and Rams in the past three games, three of the worst offenses in football. Before that came overs in back-to-back games against the Seahawks and Bills. With Baltimore fresh off a 38-point effort against the Dolphins, and rookie Kenneth Dixon (4.5 yards per rush) continuing to gain snaps over Terrance West (under 4.0), expect the Ravens to reach a low total.
The play: Over
