Week 14 NFL betting takeaways
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 14 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks as if one team is going to coast to victory, but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leading to them cry "Bad beat!" Of course, there are also the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which also will include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kinds of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 14 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should have covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
San Francisco (-3) in 23-17 overtime home loss to New York Jets
It's kind of hard to call it a bad beat when the 49ers came in with 11 straight losses, but they actually had this one well in hand and their backers had to feel they had the right side. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">The 49ers jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead and led 17-3 at halftime (though Phil Dawson missed two FGs to keep the 49ers from really pulling away). They were still ahead 17-6 heading into the fourth quarter. However, the Jets rallied with a Bilal Powell 5-yard TD run with 5:04 to play and then a Nick Folk 50-yard field goal with :38 left in regulation to force overtime. Powell (145 rushing yards in place of injured Matt Forte) finished off the comeback with a 19-yard TD run for the 23-17 victory. Earlier, Carlos Hydelooked like the running star of the game with 193 yards. Bryce Petty continued to show that fellow rookie Robby Anderson (team-highs of six catches on 11 targets for 99 yards) is his favorite receiver over Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa.</offer>
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York played 3 points better than San Francisco.
Easy Covers (clearly right sides)
Thursday: Kansas City (-3.5) in 21-13 home win over Oakland
The Raiders led 3-0 after the first quarter, but Tyreek Hill put the Chiefs over the spread with a 36-yard TD reception from Alex Smith on the second play of the second quarter and later put them ahead 21-3 with a 78-yard punt return TD. The Raiders cut it to 21-10 right before halftime and 21-13 early in the second half, but even though they were just a touchdown from getting within the spread (and a TD plus 2-point conversion from tying the game), the high-scoring Raiders came up empty on their final five possessions. Though the Chiefs defense held on, it suffered a big loss with linebacker Derrick Johnson lost for the season with a ruptured Achilles. The Raiders' poor performance in the cold doesn't bode well if they don't win the AFC West and have to go to New England, Pittsburgh/Baltimore or even back to Kansas City in January.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Kansas City played 10 points better than Oakland.
Tennessee (-1.5) in 13-10 home win over Denver
The Titans set the tone by marching 70 yards on 11 plays on their opening possession, capped by DeMarco Murray's 1-yard TD run. They dominated on both sides of the ball and led 13-0 at halftime. I could've sworn the teams switched jerseys as the Titans played Denver-like ball, relying on their running game and a defense that stepped up when it needed to, including coming up with a fumble recovery on the Broncos' final drive. This was a big step for the Titans to beat a quality team and now they have to do the same at Kansas City in Week 15.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee played 2 points better than Denver.
Carolina (-3) in 28-16 home win over San Diego
The Panthers looked more like the dominant team in recent years that rolled teams at home. They jumped out to a 23-0 lead before the Chargers got on the board. It didn't help that Melvin Gordon left the game midway through the first quarter with a hip injury. The Chargers also lost another of their young stars, Joey Bosa. The Panthers could play spoilers down the stretch as they face playoff hopefuls Washington, Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Carolina played 3 points better than San Diego.
Houston (+6.5) in 22-17 win at Indianapolis
After falling behind 3-0, the Texans scored 16 unanswered points to take control of this key AFC South matchup. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts within 16-10 and 19-17, but the Texans were never in danger of not covering. Lamar Miller did the heavy lifting (107 yards rushing and a TD) and Brock Osweiler did his game-manager role, but it's the Houston defense that will determine if the Texans can win their second straight division title or make a playoff run.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Houston played 6 points better than Indianapolis.
Cincinnati (-5) in 23-10 win at Cleveland
The Bengals scored on their opening drive on the first of two Andy Dalton-to-Tyler Eifert TD passes and led 20-0- at halftime. Robert Griffin III, playing his first game since the season opener, rallied the Browns within 20-10 early in the fourth quarter to at least have a shot at the cover, but the Bengals responded with an 11-play, 57-yard drive to set up a Mike Nugent field goal to get back to a 13-point lead. Nothing much was gained from this game except the Browns continued their grip on the No. 1 draft pick.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Cincinnati played 14 points better than Cleveland.
Pittsburgh (-2) in 27-20 win at Buffalo
The Steelers jumped out to an early lead in the snow and also led 24-7 midway through the fourth quarter on three rushing TDs from Le'Veon Bell and a FG from Chris Boswell. It would have been even more lopsided except for three interceptions thrown by Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers' defense also stepped up, holding the Bills to minus-1 yard in the first quarter and bottling up LeSean McCoy (27 rushing yards) until he scored a garbage-time TD with 1:25 to play.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Pittsburgh played 13 points better than Buffalo.
Chicago (+7.5) in 20-17 loss at Detroit
The Lions did take a 13-3 lead with 5:35 left in the third quarter to get over the spread, but the Bears responded right back with a 31-yard TD pass from Matt Barkley to Cameron Meredith and then Cre'Von LeBlanc's pick-six of Matthew Stafford put the Bears ahead 17-13 midway through the fourth quarter. The Lions, who finally played a game last week where they didn't trail in the fourth quarter, rallied per usual on Stafford's 7-yard TD run, but Chicago backers still got the cover. The Bears covered for the fourth straight game as they've been more competitive than anyone expected even though they're only 3-10. The Lions continue to just do enough to win, but that doesn't bode well for a deep playoff run.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Chicago played 6 points better than Detroit.
Miami (+2) in 26-23 home win over Arizona
The Dolphins closed as home underdogs after opening as short faves, but jumped out to leads of 7-0, 14-6 and 21-9 before the Cardinals rallied on two Carson Palmer TD passes in the fourth quarter plus a two-point conversion pass to David Johnson(with a defensive two-point conversion by Miami thrown in). However, the Dolphins survived with a 21-yard field goal by Andrew Franks as time expired. It looks like Miami suffered a bigger loss with QB Ryan Tannehill suffering an ACL injury. His replacement, Matt Moore, didn't get a first down on three possessions until finally getting one that helped set up the winning field goal. The Dolphins stayed in the wild-card race, but their prospects to make the playoffs (or do any damage in them) don't look good with Moore.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Arizona played 4 points better than Miami.
Green Bay (+3) in 38-10 home win over Seattle
The Packers never trailed as rare home underdogs as Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes and Russell Wilson threw five interceptions. There's no shame in losing at Lambeau Field, but the Seahawks also have lost at Los Angeles, New Orleans and Tampa Bay (and tied at Arizona), so they really need their home field. Christine Michael ran for 36 yards for the Packers against his former team, but Green Bay still lacks a true running game.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Green Bay played 21 points better than Seattle.
Atlanta (-5) in 42-14 win at Los Angeles
The Falcons dominated from the opening kickoff, which the Rams fumbled to set up a 3-yard TD pass from Matt Ryan to Justin Hardy just 10 seconds into the game -- and the Falcons were off and running. Atlanta's offense hardly missed Julio Jones as eight players caught passes from Ryan for two more touchdown passes. The defense added two more TDs as Deion Jones had a pick-six and Vic Beasley Jr. had a strip-sack/fumble return against an overmatched Jared Goff. It's scary for other NFC teams if the Atlanta defense continues to improve.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Atlanta played 12 points better than Los Angeles.
Tampa Bay (-2.5) in 16-11 home win over New Orleans
The Saints did get within 13-11 (and within the 2.5-point spread) on Wil Lutz's 22-yard field goal with 3:35 left in the third quarter, but the Buccaneers were covering for the majority of the game -- jumping out to a 13-0 lead and still leading 13-8 at halftime -- and got back over the number on their next possession. This was similar to the Bucs' 14-5 win over the Seahawks two weeks ago as the defense was impressive in shutting down an impressive offense. However, this was a little less impressive as Jameis Winston only put up 16 points and 184 passing yards against the sieve-like New Orleans defense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tampa Bay played 6 points better than New Orleans.
50/50 ATS Results
Minnesota (-3.5) in 25-16 win at Jacksonville
This could almost be called a bad beat for Jacksonville backers as the first seven scores of the game were field goals and it looked like Jaguars +3.5 was the right side, but the Vikings were mostly in control of this game even though it took until Kyle Rudolph's 3-yard TD catch from Sam Bradford to get over the 3.5-point spread with just 2:13 to play. The Vikings led 18-16, but even another Kai Forbath (who already had kicked four) field goal would have given the Vikings the cover. Minnesota kept its playoff hopes alive by finally winning away from home for the first time since September, but that's not as big a feat since it was at Jacksonville.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Minnesota played 14 points better than Jacksonville.
Washington (-2.5) in 27-22 win at Philadelphia
This was a true 50/50 result with five lead changes before the Redskins went ahead 27-22 on Chris Thompson's 25-yard TD run with 1:53 to play. Philadelphia backers could argue they were on the right side, leading 22-21 with the possibility of the Redskins settling for a game-winning field goal and only winning by 2, but the Redskins also led 21-13 before Leodis McKelvin's 29-yard pick-six put the Eagles back in the game. Washington continues on with its playoff hopes, but the Eagles showed in defeat that they're closer to the team that started 3-0 than the one that has lost four straight and eight of their last 10.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington played 16 points better than Philadelphia.
New York Giants (+4) in 10-7 home win over Dallas
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</article>The Cowboys took a 7-0 lead on Dak Prescott's 31-yard TD pass to Terrance Williams with 4:44 left in the first quarter. It looked like they might grind out another win, but then Robbie Gouldcut it to 7-3 (right on the closing 4-point spread) with 5:50 to play in the third quarter and Odell Beckham Jr. took a slant pass from Eli Manning and turned it into a 61-yard TD pass and a 10-7 lead with 1:07 left in the third quarter. That was it for the scoring as the Giants' defense stepped up again and again. Prescott finally looked like a rookie as he was 17-for-37 for just 165 yards and two interceptions.
The Giants also took away Dez Bryant as his only reception in nine targets resulted in a fumble with 2:24 to play that basically ended the Cowboys' hopes (Dallas did get the ball back with 1:06 left, but was pinned at its own 3-yard line and went four-and-out).
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 14 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks as if one team is going to coast to victory, but the other rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost and leading to them cry "Bad beat!" Of course, there are also the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which also will include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kinds of point-spread results from each week and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 14 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should have covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
It's kind of hard to call it a bad beat when the 49ers came in with 11 straight losses, but they actually had this one well in hand and their backers had to feel they had the right side. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">The 49ers jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead and led 17-3 at halftime (though Phil Dawson missed two FGs to keep the 49ers from really pulling away). They were still ahead 17-6 heading into the fourth quarter. However, the Jets rallied with a Bilal Powell 5-yard TD run with 5:04 to play and then a Nick Folk 50-yard field goal with :38 left in regulation to force overtime. Powell (145 rushing yards in place of injured Matt Forte) finished off the comeback with a 19-yard TD run for the 23-17 victory. Earlier, Carlos Hydelooked like the running star of the game with 193 yards. Bryce Petty continued to show that fellow rookie Robby Anderson (team-highs of six catches on 11 targets for 99 yards) is his favorite receiver over Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa.</offer>
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York played 3 points better than San Francisco.
Easy Covers (clearly right sides)
The Raiders led 3-0 after the first quarter, but Tyreek Hill put the Chiefs over the spread with a 36-yard TD reception from Alex Smith on the second play of the second quarter and later put them ahead 21-3 with a 78-yard punt return TD. The Raiders cut it to 21-10 right before halftime and 21-13 early in the second half, but even though they were just a touchdown from getting within the spread (and a TD plus 2-point conversion from tying the game), the high-scoring Raiders came up empty on their final five possessions. Though the Chiefs defense held on, it suffered a big loss with linebacker Derrick Johnson lost for the season with a ruptured Achilles. The Raiders' poor performance in the cold doesn't bode well if they don't win the AFC West and have to go to New England, Pittsburgh/Baltimore or even back to Kansas City in January.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Kansas City played 10 points better than Oakland.
The Titans set the tone by marching 70 yards on 11 plays on their opening possession, capped by DeMarco Murray's 1-yard TD run. They dominated on both sides of the ball and led 13-0 at halftime. I could've sworn the teams switched jerseys as the Titans played Denver-like ball, relying on their running game and a defense that stepped up when it needed to, including coming up with a fumble recovery on the Broncos' final drive. This was a big step for the Titans to beat a quality team and now they have to do the same at Kansas City in Week 15.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee played 2 points better than Denver.
The Panthers looked more like the dominant team in recent years that rolled teams at home. They jumped out to a 23-0 lead before the Chargers got on the board. It didn't help that Melvin Gordon left the game midway through the first quarter with a hip injury. The Chargers also lost another of their young stars, Joey Bosa. The Panthers could play spoilers down the stretch as they face playoff hopefuls Washington, Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Carolina played 3 points better than San Diego.
After falling behind 3-0, the Texans scored 16 unanswered points to take control of this key AFC South matchup. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts within 16-10 and 19-17, but the Texans were never in danger of not covering. Lamar Miller did the heavy lifting (107 yards rushing and a TD) and Brock Osweiler did his game-manager role, but it's the Houston defense that will determine if the Texans can win their second straight division title or make a playoff run.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Houston played 6 points better than Indianapolis.
The Bengals scored on their opening drive on the first of two Andy Dalton-to-Tyler Eifert TD passes and led 20-0- at halftime. Robert Griffin III, playing his first game since the season opener, rallied the Browns within 20-10 early in the fourth quarter to at least have a shot at the cover, but the Bengals responded with an 11-play, 57-yard drive to set up a Mike Nugent field goal to get back to a 13-point lead. Nothing much was gained from this game except the Browns continued their grip on the No. 1 draft pick.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Cincinnati played 14 points better than Cleveland.
The Steelers jumped out to an early lead in the snow and also led 24-7 midway through the fourth quarter on three rushing TDs from Le'Veon Bell and a FG from Chris Boswell. It would have been even more lopsided except for three interceptions thrown by Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers' defense also stepped up, holding the Bills to minus-1 yard in the first quarter and bottling up LeSean McCoy (27 rushing yards) until he scored a garbage-time TD with 1:25 to play.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Pittsburgh played 13 points better than Buffalo.
The Lions did take a 13-3 lead with 5:35 left in the third quarter to get over the spread, but the Bears responded right back with a 31-yard TD pass from Matt Barkley to Cameron Meredith and then Cre'Von LeBlanc's pick-six of Matthew Stafford put the Bears ahead 17-13 midway through the fourth quarter. The Lions, who finally played a game last week where they didn't trail in the fourth quarter, rallied per usual on Stafford's 7-yard TD run, but Chicago backers still got the cover. The Bears covered for the fourth straight game as they've been more competitive than anyone expected even though they're only 3-10. The Lions continue to just do enough to win, but that doesn't bode well for a deep playoff run.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Chicago played 6 points better than Detroit.
The Dolphins closed as home underdogs after opening as short faves, but jumped out to leads of 7-0, 14-6 and 21-9 before the Cardinals rallied on two Carson Palmer TD passes in the fourth quarter plus a two-point conversion pass to David Johnson(with a defensive two-point conversion by Miami thrown in). However, the Dolphins survived with a 21-yard field goal by Andrew Franks as time expired. It looks like Miami suffered a bigger loss with QB Ryan Tannehill suffering an ACL injury. His replacement, Matt Moore, didn't get a first down on three possessions until finally getting one that helped set up the winning field goal. The Dolphins stayed in the wild-card race, but their prospects to make the playoffs (or do any damage in them) don't look good with Moore.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Arizona played 4 points better than Miami.
The Packers never trailed as rare home underdogs as Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes and Russell Wilson threw five interceptions. There's no shame in losing at Lambeau Field, but the Seahawks also have lost at Los Angeles, New Orleans and Tampa Bay (and tied at Arizona), so they really need their home field. Christine Michael ran for 36 yards for the Packers against his former team, but Green Bay still lacks a true running game.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Green Bay played 21 points better than Seattle.
The Falcons dominated from the opening kickoff, which the Rams fumbled to set up a 3-yard TD pass from Matt Ryan to Justin Hardy just 10 seconds into the game -- and the Falcons were off and running. Atlanta's offense hardly missed Julio Jones as eight players caught passes from Ryan for two more touchdown passes. The defense added two more TDs as Deion Jones had a pick-six and Vic Beasley Jr. had a strip-sack/fumble return against an overmatched Jared Goff. It's scary for other NFC teams if the Atlanta defense continues to improve.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Atlanta played 12 points better than Los Angeles.
The Saints did get within 13-11 (and within the 2.5-point spread) on Wil Lutz's 22-yard field goal with 3:35 left in the third quarter, but the Buccaneers were covering for the majority of the game -- jumping out to a 13-0 lead and still leading 13-8 at halftime -- and got back over the number on their next possession. This was similar to the Bucs' 14-5 win over the Seahawks two weeks ago as the defense was impressive in shutting down an impressive offense. However, this was a little less impressive as Jameis Winston only put up 16 points and 184 passing yards against the sieve-like New Orleans defense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tampa Bay played 6 points better than New Orleans.
50/50 ATS Results
This could almost be called a bad beat for Jacksonville backers as the first seven scores of the game were field goals and it looked like Jaguars +3.5 was the right side, but the Vikings were mostly in control of this game even though it took until Kyle Rudolph's 3-yard TD catch from Sam Bradford to get over the 3.5-point spread with just 2:13 to play. The Vikings led 18-16, but even another Kai Forbath (who already had kicked four) field goal would have given the Vikings the cover. Minnesota kept its playoff hopes alive by finally winning away from home for the first time since September, but that's not as big a feat since it was at Jacksonville.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Minnesota played 14 points better than Jacksonville.
This was a true 50/50 result with five lead changes before the Redskins went ahead 27-22 on Chris Thompson's 25-yard TD run with 1:53 to play. Philadelphia backers could argue they were on the right side, leading 22-21 with the possibility of the Redskins settling for a game-winning field goal and only winning by 2, but the Redskins also led 21-13 before Leodis McKelvin's 29-yard pick-six put the Eagles back in the game. Washington continues on with its playoff hopes, but the Eagles showed in defeat that they're closer to the team that started 3-0 than the one that has lost four straight and eight of their last 10.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington played 16 points better than Philadelphia.
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The Giants also took away Dez Bryant as his only reception in nine targets resulted in a fumble with 2:24 to play that basically ended the Cowboys' hopes (Dallas did get the ball back with 1:06 left, but was pinned at its own 3-yard line and went four-and-out).
