The Sports Cruncher's 2016 Bowl Thread

Hi all, will try to post my matchup grids and write ups for many of the games on game days. The write up for this first game also works as a tutorial on how to use the match up grids in the pictures. Happy Bowling!

Saturday 12/17/16 Bowl Games

UT-San Antonio @ New Mexico (***Includes tips on using the Matchup Grids***)

It's a home game for New Mexico, though the 11 hour drive could entice San Antonio fans to make a weekend trip for this Bowl game. I don't know what the ticket allotment was for UTSA, so I'm still applying the home field advantage here just to be on the safe side. It is UTSA's first Bowl game, so I'd expect a pretty solid fan turnout. Even with HFA applied I'm showing a little bit of value on the Roadrunners.

It's the Homerunners (jokes!) you have to keep an eye on here offensively, though, as UNM has one of the strongest Group of 5 running games this year (3rd strongest G5 running team behind USF and Navy). The Lobos have achieved this great ground success in some part because of a really weak schedule of run defenses faced. UTSA has an above average run defense at 55th. Before you think that UTSA will do a better than average job at slowing down UNM's running game, though, consider this: UNM has a pretty strong negative correlation between the run offense scores for each of their games and the opponent's run defense rank. (***These game tracking grids on the right side of each Bowl matchup page are new this year. The correlation scores are found on the bottom of each of the 4 season game grids***) This means that UNM has actually had their best games of run offense versus the better run defenses they've faced this year, as you can see in the upper right grid. It should be noted that their best run offense score which came in the final week was against a Wyoming team who'd already locked up their side of the conference and had nothing really to play for in that game.

***If you look at the consistency scores for each team on the edges of the big grid on the left, you'll see that UTSA has been pretty inconsistent on offense, but consistent on defense. This makes sense when you look at their "Best and Worst" games in the middle columns. Their best games offensively came against not very good defenses, while their worst games offensively came against some pretty bad defenses.***

New Mexico hasn't had a single "worst" game of rush offense, while not having had a single "Best" game of pass defense. UTSA's worst game of run defense came early in the season against ASU, who suffered a plethora of offensive injuries as the season went along and at full health probably wouldn't be anywhere close to the low 124th rank of run offense they currently have. Even then it barely qualified as a "worst" game and was only a run defense score of -33. ***Most of the run/pass offense/defense scores found in the middle of the grids on the right range at around 75 points +/- or less (with a standard deviation of 74 for run off./def. scores and just over 80 for pass off./def. scores). You can see that UTSA's run defense really was very consistent in the sense that all but one of their run defense scores feel between +49 and -33. They're not shutting any one down on the ground, but they're not letting anyone run wild either.

Ultimately, UTSA's offense, weak as it may be, may do enough versus a poor Lobo defense to keep this game within a score. You can see in UTSA's run offense scores that they were really pretty poor running the ball in the 2nd half of the season, though their final 3 opponents all had higher ranked run defenses than UNM. UTSA's pass offense did show some life in the final two games though. The wind forecast will not be in the Roadrunners favor, with winds at 20+ mph forecast for the entire game. This hurts the Roadrunners more than UNM as they pass on 42% of their plays versus just 21% for the Lobos. The Lobos, it should be noted, had two of their best three games of pass offense in their final 3 games, meaning they are more likely to punish you for cheating against the run than they were formerly capable of.

With the wind forecast I recommended a small play on the Under earlier in the week, but with the number below 60 now I'd pass, as I'm also doing on any side plays. Maybe for action I'll throw the Lobos into a very small teaser play with something else.

http://imgur.com/a/WJSYx
http://imgur.com/a/EZzjJ

Mr./C.........appreciate the info........great write up...........looking forward to your thought's this Bowl season..........enjoy the games...........indy

Missed you this season Crunch. TY for posting BOL always.

Good to see you again tSC. I had a question for you a few weeks back but didn't know if you were still around.

I love all the info on the stat cards, however it's hella hard to interpret. Hurts my eyes (and brain). lol
BOL on your plays :toast:

Thx guys. Hey, I actually had some errors in the matchup grids that I tidied up and the link above will now show the correct info. (on the off chance that anyone actually tried studying the data, lol).

Southern Mississippi vs Louisiana Lafayette

A bit of a tricky matchup here, primarily because USM was so inconsistent at just about everything this year except running the ball, which they were consistently poor at. QB Mullens led a really potent offense this year, but somehow the coaching regime change seems to bungled what they had. They had a lot offensive players returning. Mullens had a concussion issue midway through the season, I believe, and USM had a couple of their worst passing games during that stretch. USM's passing game finished the season trending up, but ULL matches them with their pass defense having their two best games of the season in their final two.

As mentioned, USM's rush offense was consistently poor, posting a negative game score in their final 9 games, with an average of -44. That is not good, and ULL has my 40th ranked rush defense.

ULL, sadly for them, will probably have to win this game through the air. They had many more poor games of rush offense than good, but they had their absolute best game against the best rush defense they faced (Georgia). They followed that up two terrible games to wrap up the season, though in that final game against ULM they were just predictably running over and over with the big lead all game (they literally only attempted 5 passes). but still, ULM has a really bad run defense (3rd worst). ULL RB McGuire is probably as healthy as he's been in a long time, but I'm honestly not sure how much it will help.

ULL's passing game has been better (86th ranked versus 105th for the run offense), but they've had a few of their worst games versus some of the worst pass defenses they've faced, so there's no guarantee of consistency. I know ULL did suffer from some injuries in their WR corps midseason when they had some of their worst passing games. They actually threw the ball pretty well in the final month of the season. And also as mentioned, USM's pass defense has been all over the place this season, but mostly had their good games against poor pass offenses, with the lone exception being in the regular season finale versus an LT team looking ahead to the conference championship game.

All told, I'll take my chances on ULL here, with the better run matchups. The market apparently is really banking on QB Mullens finishing the season strong, but I'm not convinced. This USM team played Washington in their Bowl game last year. This year facing ULL I can't see them being too excited, while ULL should be riding a bit higher with their late season surge.

http://imgur.com/a/WQKlA

Mouth of the Rat Bowl: Memphis vs Western Kentucky

I think I might be betting on every single team who had their head coach poached this Bowl season. Logically these coaches were poached because their teams played well, so we're backing good teams, and statistics have shown that teams losing their head coach don't suffer for it in their Bowl Games.

The high flying Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky battle the tested Tigers of Memphis in the translated to English Mouth of the Rat Bowl.

Key Matchup #1: WKU's pass offense vs. MEM's pass defense.

WKU faced a pretty soft schedule of pass defenses this year, shredding most of them like a fine mozzarella. Only two of those pass defenses were better than Memphis' 24th ranked unit, Alabama (#2) and Vanderbilt (#22). WKU did decently against them, so I expect WKU to have at least a decent day through the air. Looking at Memphis' pass defense scores for the season, there's a pretty solid correlation, 67%, between their scores and the rank of the pass offenses they played. This means that the better the pass offense that Memphis faced, the worse their pass defense did, which further bolsters WKU's chance for a good day passing the ball with their #8 ranked pass offense.

Key Matchup #2: MEM's run offense vs. WKU's run defense.

Memphis had a pretty balanced offense this year, running on 52% of their plays (FBS median is 55%). Versus a near dead average strength of schedule ranking of run and pass defenses faced, MEM has my 63rd ranked run offense and 30th ranked pass offense. I'll just briefly say that Memphis should also have a decent day throwing the ball. WKU also has a pretty strong correlation between their pass defense scores and pass offenses faced at 62%. WKU's pass defense was pretty strong in the second half of the season in conference play, but that's because outside of Louisiana Tech, every other pass offense they faced was below average. Still, the improvement was drastic enough to suggest that this team is playing better pass defense now than the were earlier in the season, regardless of the opponent. The same could be said for Memphis' pass offense as well, they played better down the stretch versus conference opponents, though their conference schedule was clearly tougher than WKU's. Okay, that wasn't exactly a brief note on MEM's passing matchup, lol.

Let's get back to the key matchup -- how well will MEM be able to run the ball? The answer: below average. WKU is known for the potent offense, but did you know that in addition to having my 8th ranked pass offense they also have my 8th ranked run defense? I bet you didn't! In the 2nd week of the season WKU played a road game at Alabama, where they held Alabama to their lowest yard per carry average of the season of just 3.2, a full yard less per carry than their next lowest of 4.2 against LSU. Impressive. Memphis does have a negative correlation of -44% of run offense scores versus run defenses faced, so they shouldn't get shut down on the ground.

The Weakest Unit on the Field this Game Will Be...Memphis' run defense.

Memphis' run defense hasn't been terrible, but it's been below average ranked 77th. They've also had a pretty correlation of 67% with their run defense scores, so I expect WKU's 45th ranked run offense to have a pretty good game.

All in all, Western Kentucky should have the higher yards per pass average, but it is their matchups in the run game that should power them to a double digits win. One of their best defenders, LB T.J. McCollum is expected to miss, but even applying some deductions to the defensive projections I still have Western Kentucky favored by almost 12. With Western Kentucky's excellent run defense not allowing Memphis to prolong every drive where they have short third downs, and with Western Kentucky's run offense controlling the clock with the lead in the 2nd half, I like the Under here as well. Western Kentucky's gave have averaged 38.8 1st half points, but just 28.8 in the 2nd half, as they do, as mentioned, tend to run the ball and the clock in the 2nd half while still playing pretty good defense.

Final Score projection: Memphis 28 -- Western Kentucky 42

http://imgur.com/a/y9E12

Mr./C...........great write up and info.........BOL with your action...........you and your family have a great Holiday season.............indy

thecruncher said:

Mouth of the Rat Bowl: Memphis vs Western Kentucky

I think I might be betting on every single team who had their head coach poached this Bowl season. Logically these coaches were poached because their teams played well, so we're backing good teams, and statistics have shown that teams losing their head coach don't suffer for it in their Bowl Games.

The high flying Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky battle the tested Tigers of Memphis in the translated to English Mouth of the Rat Bowl.

Key Matchup #1: WKU's pass offense vs. MEM's pass defense.

WKU faced a pretty soft schedule of pass defenses this year, shredding most of them like a fine mozzarella. Only two of those pass defenses were better than Memphis' 24th ranked unit, Alabama (#2) and Vanderbilt (#22). WKU did decently against them, so I expect WKU to have at least a decent day through the air. Looking at Memphis' pass defense scores for the season, there's a pretty solid correlation, 67%, between their scores and the rank of the pass offenses they played. This means that the better the pass offense that Memphis faced, the worse their pass defense did, which further bolsters WKU's chance for a good day passing the ball with their #8 ranked pass offense.

Key Matchup #2: MEM's run offense vs. WKU's run defense.

Memphis had a pretty balanced offense this year, running on 52% of their plays (FBS median is 55%). Versus a near dead average strength of schedule ranking of run and pass defenses faced, MEM has my 63rd ranked run offense and 30th ranked pass offense. I'll just briefly say that Memphis should also have a decent day throwing the ball. WKU also has a pretty strong correlation between their pass defense scores and pass offenses faced at 62%. WKU's pass defense was pretty strong in the second half of the season in conference play, but that's because outside of Louisiana Tech, every other pass offense they faced was below average. Still, the improvement was drastic enough to suggest that this team is playing better pass defense now than the were earlier in the season, regardless of the opponent. The same could be said for Memphis' pass offense as well, they played better down the stretch versus conference opponents, though their conference schedule was clearly tougher than WKU's. Okay, that wasn't exactly a brief note on MEM's passing matchup, lol.

Let's get back to the key matchup -- how well will MEM be able to run the ball? The answer: below average. WKU is known for the potent offense, but did you know that in addition to having my 8th ranked pass offense they also have my 8th ranked run defense? I bet you didn't! In the 2nd week of the season WKU played a road game at Alabama, where they held Alabama to their lowest yard per carry average of the season of just 3.2, a full yard less per carry than their next lowest of 4.2 against LSU. Impressive. Memphis does have a negative correlation of -44% of run offense scores versus run defenses faced, so they shouldn't get shut down on the ground.

The Weakest Unit on the Field this Game Will Be...Memphis' run defense.

Memphis' run defense hasn't been terrible, but it's been below average ranked 77th. They've also had a pretty correlation of 67% with their run defense scores, so I expect WKU's 45th ranked run offense to have a pretty good game.

All in all, Western Kentucky should have the higher yards per pass average, but it is their matchups in the run game that should power them to a double digits win. One of their best defenders, LB T.J. McCollum is expected to miss, but even applying some deductions to the defensive projections I still have Western Kentucky favored by almost 12. With Western Kentucky's excellent run defense not allowing Memphis to prolong every drive where they have short third downs, and with Western Kentucky's run offense controlling the clock with the lead in the 2nd half, I like the Under here as well. Western Kentucky's gave have averaged 38.8 1st half points, but just 28.8 in the 2nd half, as they do, as mentioned, tend to run the ball and the clock in the 2nd half while still playing pretty good defense.

Final Score projection: Memphis 28 -- Western Kentucky 42

http://imgur.com/a/y9E12

Click to expand...

Excellent write up, thank you!

Cruncher you really nailed this WKU game. Nice call....great read....thanks.

Happy Holidays Indy (and everyone), your positive attitude is always appreciated here.
Poinsettia Bowl: Wyoming vs BYU

When BYU has the ball: BYU QB Hill ended his seemingly decades long tenure at BYU with another injury, meaning QB Mangum will get the start. I think this is viewed as a positive by most bettors, as BYU's passing offense under Hill was like working from under a hill, not so good (I rank them 108th). Mangum, as you may recall, led BYU to several last second victories when he took over for the injured Hill last year. Mangum could spark the Cougar passing game; Wyoming's pass defense is pretty weak (ranked 120th). BYU will need success in the air to keep Wyoming's defense honest. BYU only had one game of pass offense this season with a positive score (my unique game scoring) in their game against Toledo. After that they averaged an awful -79 in their final 6 games. BYU's pass offense was worse over that stretch than Wyoming's pass defense was, though Wyoming faced a really weak schedule of pass offenses, with the exception of Boise.

BYU had a pretty strong running game for a while until injuries limited the action of their best two backs, Williams and Canada, during the second half of the season. They're both back, so BYU's running game could be even better than projected. Wyoming actually had a really good run defense in the first half of the season before fading down the stretch. A total no show in a meaningless game against New Mexico after wrapping up a trip to the conference finals doesn't help their season numbers. If you look at the matchup grid pic, you'll see that gigantic red -466 score in that game against New Mexico, whereas Wyoming averaged a +10 in the rest of their other games. Wyoming had my 4th toughest schedule of run offenses faced this season, too, as the MWC features many teams with good run offenses.

When Wyoming has the ball: BYU has a very good run defense, ranked #6. Wyoming has a pretty good run offense, ranked #49, though they ran the ball for 0.6 yards per carry more in their home games than road games. Neither unit in this matchup has shown any correlation between game score and opponent rank, so how well Wyoming will be able to run the ball is a bit of a mystery, though it rates to be below average, and well below what BYU should achieve with their running game.

Wyoming's chance to hang in this game will hinge on their success passing the ball. With their 35th ranked pass offense versus BYU's 84th ranked pass defense Wyoming should be able to do some damage through the air. BYU's pass defense has shown an incredibly strong correlation (80%) between their pass defense scores and the opponent's pass offense rank, so I fully expect Wyoming to have a successful game passing. Wyoming hasn't faced any elite pass defenses this year, but the opponent's pass defense ranking has had no bearing on Wyoming's success with a -50% correlation.

Wyoming (excluding the throw away game versus UNM) only passed the ball on 33% of their offensive plays in the games they won this year. In the games they lost it was much more at 49%. As they rate to be close or trailing against BYU, and hopefully realizing that their best matchup here is with the passing game, I expect Wyoming to be closer to that 50% passing mark.

Wyoming's games were high scoring affairs for the most part this season, averaging a whopping 72.6 points per game, with only 3 games falling below the current total of 57. One of those 3 was in the conference championship game against San Diego State. The Aztecs have eerily similar rankings as BYU, so while I lean the Over, I'm not rushing to play it. Here's the comparison: Run offense - SDSU 25th, BYU 28th. Run defense SDSU 20th, BYU 6th. Pass offense: SDSU 107th, BYU 108th. Pass defense: SDSU 69th, BYU 84th.

BYU's games only averaged 48.6 points this season, with only games going over the 57 points -- the exact opposite of Wyoming. As such, I wouldn't recommend anything other than a fun-sized action bet on the Over, as Bowl games without completely dominating defenses can be a bit more relaxed and higher scoring. I do recommend a play on Wyoming to keep it close with the passing game, though.

http://imgur.com/a/1X0lI

The game last night was in San Diego, I didn't I needed to check the weather! lol. It really hampered Wyoming's passing game in the first half, but they passed it well enough in the 2nd half (along with a decent running game) to get the cover, as expected.

Recommended play for tonight's Bowl Game: Idaho vs. Colorado State 1st half Over 33.5

Not going to do a lengthy write up on this game, as I have no full game plays here. CSU's offense has been extremely good down the stretch, and face an Idaho defense with a fair run defense (76th) but poor pass defense (122nd). CSU has averaged over 30 1st half points by themselves in their last 5 games, and 3 of their opponents had better defenses than Idaho. I expect CSU to run their normal offense, which includes a fair share of passing, in the first half, and to score points. In the 2nd half with the lead, I expect them to slow things down, and not pass the ball as much. CSU's games have had significantly higher scoring first halves than second halves, more so than the normal averages. Idaho fits that profile of higher first half scoring games as well, though it's not as extreme. Idaho has averaged 24 points themselves in the first half over their last 4 games, also against some okay defenses (with the exception of Texas State).

It's going to be cold in Boise tonight -- the temperature is supposed to be below freezing the entire day. There's going to be almost no wind, though, and only a very small chance of precipitation as the game goes on.

This is essentially a home game for Idaho, and you have to expect a top effort from them in their first Bowl game since 2009. Idaho has only bowled twice previously, with both games in Boise, and they narrowly won both games.

CSU will have very little fan attendance (453 tickets sold is what I saw the other day, I think). It's hard to project how up for this game CSU will be facing an opponent that in their minds they think they should dominate. I think a lack of interest or desire shows up more on the defensive side of the ball, with effort frequently more important than execution. Offense is equal parts effort and execution. That's what I've always though, anyway.

http://imgur.com/a/Ea4hD

Mr./C..........Sorry, went to the game and should have mentioned the weather..........not used to it being wet at a game....lol

good luck with tonight action...........indy

Great write up on Wyoming / BYU game. Thanks pal... good luck and keep it rolling.

1 TD in the first covers. Disappointing. You had it right. Bummer.

56 points in the 4th quarter, 0 in the first -- yeah, it was disappointing, lol.

Tough game, but great to see you posting again! Hope you had a successful year!

(Why does the space bar not work when you reply with quote, so weird!)

Thanks, Saints. Had a very successful year in NCAAF (#1 model at cfbpredictions, +74 units). Not so much, in the NFL, down over 10 units. I hadn't done NFL in a few years and it's been a tough comeback.

I've got no action on the Fried Chicken Bowl, but lean EMU now that the line has steamed up to +5.5. They played a tougher schedule than ODU and should have near equal success in the passing game. The running game is where it may get dicey for EMU. EMU had their 3 worst games of run defense in their final 4 games, and ODU has the clearly better run offense.

http://imgur.com/a/Piyyr

As for the Over Priced Defense Contractors' Bowl, I lean on the underdog again, Navy. Navy's offense obviously hasn't been quite the same since the offensive injuries in the Temple game, but I expect a bounce back of sorts as Temple has a good defense, anyway, and Army is always a tough mirror match up. I don't have the Army game in my spreadsheet, which I'm sure would shade the line and total closer to the current numbers.

http://imgur.com/a/szLjb

I do have a play on the side and total in the Buck Store Bowl, and will post a write up closer to game time, out of respect to the clientele.

Hoping to see you on Troy..Sun Belt has shown well.

Sorry Patrick, lol.

Buck Store Bowl: Ohio vs Troy

When Ohio has the ball: No one is going to mistake Ohio for a good offensive team. All season they only had two games in which they logged a positive score both running and passing the ball. One of those games was the first game of the season against the horrific Texas State, and Ohio just barely managed positive run and pass numbers against them. Their best game of offense came against Toledo, who also have a below average defense.

Ohio's biggest problem is that they don't have the great dual-threat QB that their offense requires. 1st stringer Wyndham has an above average ypc average but a below average ypp average. 2nd stringer Maxwell saw plenty of action for the injured Wyndham. Maxwell put up better passing numbers but worse running numbers. Wyndham gets the start tonight, so as long as he's in there expect the Bobcats to favor the run. By land or by air, either way it will be tough against a slightly better than FBS average Troy defense. Troy's run defense did fade just a little late in the season, so maybe they'll be some cracks there for Ohio to manage some successful drives. Troy's pass defense was really good to start the season, having 3 great games against Clemson, Southern Miss and Idaho, all of whom have above average passing games, while having one bad game against the bad New Mexico State in the middle. That fits Troy's odd negative correlation of -55% of pass defense scores versus pass offense ranks. After that hot start Troy's pass defense was just very average the rest of the season.

When Troy has the ball: Troy's offense is honestly not much better than Ohio's and finished the season on a major slide. In their final 3 games, all against below average defenses, they posted an average run score of -56 and an average pass score of -87. I'm not sure what happened, but after playing well and winning at home against Appalachian State in week #11 they lost the ability to move the ball.

That doesn't bode well against an Ohio defense that was stellar against the run all year (10th ranked, with an average run defense score of +61) and posted 3 of their best 4 run defense scores in their final 4 games. Ohio's pass defense's ranking of 88th is below average, but they did play better in the 2nd half of the season than the first, which should aid their cause. As mentioned, Troy's pass offense was pretty dismal in their final 3 games, and was still below average even prior to those 3. They had some of their better games against the better pass defenses they faced, so their success tonight throwing the ball is a bit up in the air, figuratively and literally.

Weather: Small chance of precipitation with very light winds. 60+ degrees.

In sum: The defenses have all the advantages in this game, unless Troy's passing game can have one of it's better efforts, something it was capable of earlier in the season. As such, I recommend a full unit on the Under. Ohio has limited the success of far better offenses than Troy this season, and I project this game to be a near coin flip. In a lower scoring game where the points are even more valuable, I recommend a unit play on Ohio as well. With as strong as Ohio's defense was playing in the final month versus how poorly Troy's offense played in their final 3 games, an upset wouldn't surprise me in the least.

http://imgur.com/a/Ksmwm