If the Patriots are going to cover the spread against the Jets this week, they're going to have to turn the game into a rout because oddsmakers have hit New England with the largest point spread in three years.
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The Patriots have officially opened as a 16.5 point favorite over the Jets, which is the highest point spread of the season, and the highest point spread in any NFL game since October 2013, when the Broncos closed as a 26.5 point favorite over the Jaguars.
This is the kind of point spread you get when Vegas keeps losing money on a team, and they keep losing money on the Patriots.
New England is 11-3 against the spread this year, making them the safest NFL bet of 2016. Of course, the ugliness of the Jets season also plays into the large point spread.
Their starting quarterback (Bryce Petty) is banged up and their backup quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick) throws interceptions like it's his job.
Betting a spread this big is never easy, however, history seems to favor the underdog. According to Pro Football Reference, in the past 20 instances where a team has been favored by 16 or more points, the underdog has gone 14-5-1 against the spread.
The Jaguars of 2013 were one of the teams that ended up covering. As a 26.5 point underdog, the Jags ended up losing by "just" 16 (35-19).
The Jets-Patriots game will mark the ninth time in the Brady-Belichick era that the Patriots have been favored by 16 or more points. In those nine games, the Patriots are 9-0 straight-up, but just 3-6 against the spread.
If there is one sure bet here, it's betting on the Patriots to win. Since 1990, there have been 59 teams that have been favored by 16 or more points and those teams have gone 56-3 straight-up. The last time a team lost in this scenario came in 1995 when the 17-point underdog Redskins beat the Cowboys 24-17.
