[h=1]How to bet Carolina-Washington[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's Carolina-Washington matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
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Spread: Opened Washington -4; now Washington -7 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 51; now 51
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Carolina
Public perception: The public is now on the Panthers, as the line is up to a touchdown, but they were more on the Redskins' side at lower numbers. The Redskins are in a better position to make the playoffs, plus they've been better to bettors at 9-4 ATS compared to the Panthers at 4-8-1 ATS.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps were also on Washington early and have also flipped to backing Carolina when they can get +7 (Note: SuperContest players still took the Panthers by a 336-121 margin with a line of only +6.5).
Dave Tuley's take: The Redskins have obviously had the better season, but the NFL Vegas Rankings that we're apart of here at ESPN Chalk has them rated only 1.5 points better than the Panthers, who might also have Luke Kuechly back at linebacker, while the Redskins have injury issues of their own. Even with Washington's home-field advantage, we'd make them only -3.5 or -4 (which was around where the line was when we did our value plays), so this recent move to 7 has created value. For all their problems, Cam Newton has this offense averaging 23.9 points, compared to 25.4 for the Redskins, while the defense allows 25.9, compared to 24.4 by the Redskins (it's just a coincidence that these differences are also 1.5 points -- or is it?) -- this line should be a lot closer to a field goal. (Note: Washington is 11-2 with the over, and the forecast of a game-time temperature in the mid-20s is the only thing keeping me from making that a best bet.)
The pick: Panthers +7 (lean to over 51)
Erin Rynning:
No question the Panthers season's been an epic failure after last year's stellar Super Bowl run. However, for what it's worth, this game will serve as their Super Bowl this season, as they're out of the playoff hunt. Furthermore, after their embarrassing showing against the Seahawks under the lights two weeks ago, this still-talented team should play focused. Of course, garnering the services of linebacker Kuechly gives life, as the heart and soul of the defense, which again features the talent to keep this game close. Take nothing away from the Redskins, but the value in this contest resides plus the touchdown.
Play: Panthers
Rufus Peabody:
Everyone knows the Redskins have a great offense and a terrible defense, but a total of 51 is too high, even given that it's a primetime game (yes, primetime games tend to see more points scored). The Panthers are a run-heavy offense and an above-average defense, and this game will be played on a grass field in below-freezing temperatures. Not a recipe for a shootout.
Pick: Under 51
Massey-Peabody Line: Washington -3.4; Total: 48.4
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 30, Carolina 23
The pick: Washington and the over -- WAS -6.5, 50.5
John Parolin's prop bets
283.5 passing yards by Kirk Cousins (O/U -110)
The Carolina Panthers' defense has been brutal on the road this season. The Panthers are allowing an NFL-worst 330.7 pass yards per game on the road this season, 47.7 yards worse than the next-closest defense (Packers, 283.0). The brutal 8.8 yards per attempt allowed on the road is the second worst average in the league. A 75 Total QBR allowed in road games is "only" fourth worst, but it's not pretty - and Kirk Cousins is capable of exploiting that.
Since Week 6, very few QBs have picked apart a standard four-man pass rush the way Cousins has. His 90 QBR against a standard rush since Week 6 is best in the league, while his 8.9 yards per attempt ranks third and his +12 TD-Int differential is second. Cousins is the only qualified quarterback in the NFL without an interception against a four-man rush in that span (12 TD, 0 Int). None of this is great news for a Carolina defense that blitzes on only 23.5 percent of dropbacks (10th fewest in the league).
The play: Over
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1.5 touchdown passes by Kirk Cousins (Over -170, Under +150)
Did you need more rationale than what was outlined above? The Panthers' defense has allowed 13 passing touchdowns in only six road games this season, a 2.2-per-game average that's fifth highest in the league. They've surrendered 15 passing touchdowns without an interception in the red zone - the only defenses with more touchdowns without a pick are the Rams, 49ers and Jets (not a list you want to be on).
They've allowed big plays too - Carolina has allowed nine touchdowns of at least 25 yards, third most in the league, behind only the Buccaneers and Browns (10). Cousins has been on fire of late too - he's thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games.
The play: Over (-170)
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's Carolina-Washington matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Spread: Opened Washington -4; now Washington -7 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 51; now 51
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Carolina
Public perception: The public is now on the Panthers, as the line is up to a touchdown, but they were more on the Redskins' side at lower numbers. The Redskins are in a better position to make the playoffs, plus they've been better to bettors at 9-4 ATS compared to the Panthers at 4-8-1 ATS.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps were also on Washington early and have also flipped to backing Carolina when they can get +7 (Note: SuperContest players still took the Panthers by a 336-121 margin with a line of only +6.5).
Dave Tuley's take: The Redskins have obviously had the better season, but the NFL Vegas Rankings that we're apart of here at ESPN Chalk has them rated only 1.5 points better than the Panthers, who might also have Luke Kuechly back at linebacker, while the Redskins have injury issues of their own. Even with Washington's home-field advantage, we'd make them only -3.5 or -4 (which was around where the line was when we did our value plays), so this recent move to 7 has created value. For all their problems, Cam Newton has this offense averaging 23.9 points, compared to 25.4 for the Redskins, while the defense allows 25.9, compared to 24.4 by the Redskins (it's just a coincidence that these differences are also 1.5 points -- or is it?) -- this line should be a lot closer to a field goal. (Note: Washington is 11-2 with the over, and the forecast of a game-time temperature in the mid-20s is the only thing keeping me from making that a best bet.)
The pick: Panthers +7 (lean to over 51)
Erin Rynning:
No question the Panthers season's been an epic failure after last year's stellar Super Bowl run. However, for what it's worth, this game will serve as their Super Bowl this season, as they're out of the playoff hunt. Furthermore, after their embarrassing showing against the Seahawks under the lights two weeks ago, this still-talented team should play focused. Of course, garnering the services of linebacker Kuechly gives life, as the heart and soul of the defense, which again features the talent to keep this game close. Take nothing away from the Redskins, but the value in this contest resides plus the touchdown.
Play: Panthers
Rufus Peabody:
Everyone knows the Redskins have a great offense and a terrible defense, but a total of 51 is too high, even given that it's a primetime game (yes, primetime games tend to see more points scored). The Panthers are a run-heavy offense and an above-average defense, and this game will be played on a grass field in below-freezing temperatures. Not a recipe for a shootout.
Pick: Under 51
Massey-Peabody Line: Washington -3.4; Total: 48.4
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 30, Carolina 23
The pick: Washington and the over -- WAS -6.5, 50.5
John Parolin's prop bets
283.5 passing yards by Kirk Cousins (O/U -110)
The Carolina Panthers' defense has been brutal on the road this season. The Panthers are allowing an NFL-worst 330.7 pass yards per game on the road this season, 47.7 yards worse than the next-closest defense (Packers, 283.0). The brutal 8.8 yards per attempt allowed on the road is the second worst average in the league. A 75 Total QBR allowed in road games is "only" fourth worst, but it's not pretty - and Kirk Cousins is capable of exploiting that.
Since Week 6, very few QBs have picked apart a standard four-man pass rush the way Cousins has. His 90 QBR against a standard rush since Week 6 is best in the league, while his 8.9 yards per attempt ranks third and his +12 TD-Int differential is second. Cousins is the only qualified quarterback in the NFL without an interception against a four-man rush in that span (12 TD, 0 Int). None of this is great news for a Carolina defense that blitzes on only 23.5 percent of dropbacks (10th fewest in the league).
The play: Over
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1.5 touchdown passes by Kirk Cousins (Over -170, Under +150)
Did you need more rationale than what was outlined above? The Panthers' defense has allowed 13 passing touchdowns in only six road games this season, a 2.2-per-game average that's fifth highest in the league. They've surrendered 15 passing touchdowns without an interception in the red zone - the only defenses with more touchdowns without a pick are the Rams, 49ers and Jets (not a list you want to be on).
They've allowed big plays too - Carolina has allowed nine touchdowns of at least 25 yards, third most in the league, behind only the Buccaneers and Browns (10). Cousins has been on fire of late too - he's thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games.
The play: Over (-170)
