When to follow another person's bets?

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Reading this comment on the NFL forum today has me wondering:

"The reason I'm even bringing this up is because you keep going on and on about how "you can't show me anyone here who's picking games at 67% a clip," when hitting 67%, 63% now, basically doesn't mean anything over the course of roughly 60 games. You could flip a coin 60 times and hit 75% or more no problem, so you can see how insignificant of a sample that is. I remember you really struggling last year which is why I'm posting this up now, I didn't say anything then. Feel free to fact check me yourself or anyone following your plays. I'm having a break even/slightly winning year myself but it's not a big deal because I haven't bet that many games. In 2014, I hit over 60%. In 2015, I hit around 55%. Again this is all relatively meaningless until you have capped 500, 800, 1000+ games which would probably take over a decade of betting the NFL at the rate you're betting. Realistically, you'd need at the bare minimum 500-1000 games before you will really have any idea if you're winning at "67% a clip" simply due to the volatile nature/variance of betting the NFL. Just bringing you down to earth a little bit. Take it as you will. Good luck the rest of the season kid. We need good cappers here on the RX."
 

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I think a season's worth of games is definitely enough of a sample size to determine whether or not to tail someone hitting 63+% for the year, especially at this late point in the season. Think of it this way, as long as they've been consistent, it means they have a terrific beat on how the season (and most teams) is playing out. Or if they lean on consistent numbers/systems, it means it's verified as far as the current seaon goes and they can be trusted for the duration of the campaign.

As one of the few people on the entire RX forum this year hitting that high of a percentage in the mid-60's%, I can absolutely confirm that is true (although I know this comment was made in someone else's thread hitting 60+%). I'm more of a "feel" handicapper than numbers/systems, so I continue to make my bets with absolute confidence because I know my current "beat" on teams can continue to lead me to prosper.

Consistency is very key. Put it like this, on average, I've been taking three bets per week this season, and since I've been hovering around 66% all year, that means you can tail me, or any handicapper in a similar scenario, with confidence to go 2-1 every week because that's the kind of beat I've had on the weekly schedule.

As for playoff games, that's a different animal. But when you see a handful of people such as myself winning so consistently and at that desired 65ish% clip over a full season, I think most of such people can be relied upon, at least for the rest of that given season because their systems, or in my case "feel," is already proven.
 

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