[h=1]Week 16 contrarian NFL betting system[/h]David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
For contrarian bettors, there's never a better opportunity to find value than the week after casual bettors post significant gains. When big favorites and public teams come through for squares, there's an inevitable chain of events that can ultimately be exploited by opportunistic bettors.
At this point, I probably sound like a broken record, but sportsbooks are excellent at predicting where they're going to get action each week, and they shade their lines accordingly. When casual bettors have a huge week, it often confirms preexisting biases and encourages bettors to use their same flawed strategy the following week. These square bettors are now more confident, and now they're <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>equipped with additional funds to further inflate lines -- creating even more value for bettors who dare to go against the grain and take an unpopular viewpoint.
Casual bettors place an inordinate amount of significance on recent events. Using our Bet Labs software, I have shown that contrarian bettors are able to consistently find value by capitalizing on public perception. In the past, I have discussed the value of betting against the public, taking teams after a blowout loss and fading them after a decisive victory in order to capitalize on these shaded lines. For that reason, it's essential for bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news to capitalize on the easily predictable week-to-week overreactions by casual bettors.
Public bettors habitually overreact to blowouts and win streaks, but just as importantly, my research has shown that square bettors tend to place more value on high-powered offenses than stout defenses. Bettors overreact to massive offensive outputs while steering clear of supposedly inept offenses.
Since 2003, teams that scored fewer than 24 points in their previous games have gone 1,863-1,826 ATS (50.5 percent) in the regular season. As we look at increasingly low-scoring games, that win percentage improves steadily. Teams that scored fewer than 17 points have gone 997-961 ATS (50.9 percent); teams that scored fewer than 14 points have gone 726-694 ATS (51.1 percent); teams that scored fewer than 10 points have gone 355-306 ATS (53.7 percent); and teams that scored fewer than seven points have gone 193-161 ATS (54.5 percent).
Bettors are unwilling to take teams that struggle offensively, so sportsbooks have to shade their lines to encourage more balanced action. Even so, casual bettors have been unwilling to back offenses that scored less than a touchdown in the previous matchup. In fact, such teams received the majority of spread bets in just 95 of 354 (26.8 percent) games the past 14 years.
When we focus solely on underdogs, that tendency is magnified. In that same time frame, teams that scored fewer than seven points in their previous game have gone 127-98 ATS (56.4 percent). Over that stretch, the 'dog has received a majority of spread tickets on just 16 occasions!
In previous articles, I have mentioned that there's an edge taking teams following a loss, specifically a blowout loss. Not surprisingly, there are only four examples in which a team scored fewer than seven points and still won, but there were several examples in which the previous game was competitive despite offensive struggles. By eliminating those games and focusing on teams coming off a double-digit loss, our return on investment (ROI) jumps substantially.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 16 Betting System[/h]How teams fared week after scoring less than seven points
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</tfoot></aside>[h=3]Why does this work?[/h]Betting against the public represents a consistently profitable strategy, but it's only one component of employing a contrarian strategy. Past research has found that most casual bettors tend to overreact to recent events, which is why I'm constantly advocating buying on bad news and selling on good.
Contrarian bettors habitually take teams after blowout losses, fade "elite" teams and back teams that have failed to win or cover the spread in recent weeks. These tactics might seem counterintuitive, but they allow bettors to exploit public perception and take advantage of artificially inflated lines.
The public tends to push the panic button after a poor performance, but that's particularly true following an atrocious offensive showing. Not only are lines artificially inflated because casual bettors will be looking to fade these bad offensive teams, but there's also a revenge factor as teams attempt to rebound from a humiliating performance.
As David Payne Purdum pointed out in a recent column, casual bettors did very well this past weekend. That information is validated by our public betting percentages, which indicate that teams receiving more than 50 percent of spread tickets went 9-6 ATS and teams receiving more than 60 percent of spread tickets went 6-3 ATS. Casual bettors will have healthy bankrolls this weekend, which could lead to more severely inflated lines.
This week, there are three current system matches, though bettors should track the latest lines and public betting trends on ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page, as this data can fluctuate throughout the week.
In general, we recommend waiting until right before game time to place your bets to ensure that they still fit the system, especially in games with one-sided public betting.
[h=2]Week 16 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday afternoon.
Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers
Minnesota entered last week's game against Indianapolis believing it needed to win the final three games of the regular season to earn a playoff berth. The Vikings managed just six points against a Colts team that ranks in the bottom 10 of almost every major defensive category. Although some bettors would view that as ample reason to avoid the Vikings at all cost, I view this as the optimal buy-low opportunity.
The Vikings opened as 6.5-point underdogs, and they've received just 23 percent of spread tickets and 22 percent of spread dollars. Although the line hasn't moved yet, I wouldn't be surprised to see this line reach Vikings +7 before kickoff. That represents fantastic value for contrarian bettors.
The Vikings fit our Week 9 betting system focusing on teams after a blowout loss and our Week 15 system focusing on fading teams such as the Packers in "must-win" games.
There's also reason to like the Vikings in this divisional rivalry. Since 2003, road underdogs have gone 445-378 ATS (54.1 percent) against divisional opponents, including a 63-40 ATS (61.2 percent) record since the start of the 2015 season. This season, underdogs have gone 37-31 ATS (54.4 percent) against divisional opponents and 72-78 ATS (48 percent) in all other games.
One of the unfortunate aspects of publishing so early in the week is that much of the information can change, and it has traditionally been wiser to take favorites early and underdogs late. I would much rather wait until this line hits 7, but nonetheless, I believe it's wise to buy low on Minnesota in this divisional rivalry.
The pick: Vikings +6.5
Denver Broncos (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs
Despite another astounding performance by their defense, the Broncos' offense managed just three points in Sunday's loss to the Patriots. The loss dropped Denver's record to 8-6 on the season, which means the Broncos likely need to win both of their remaining games to reach the postseason.
The Broncos opened as six-point underdogs at the Westgate Superbook, and according to our public betting trends, they have received 41 percent of early spread tickets. Despite this lack of public support, the Broncos have moved from +6 to +4. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money likes Denver in this AFC West matchup.
This could be one of the more interesting Week 16 matchups, as forecasts call for 20 mph wind speeds with a 70 percent chance of precipitation. Those forecasts have caused oddsmakers to lower their total to 37.5, and historically, road teams have thrived in low-scoring games. Since 2003, visitors have gone 316-279 (53.1 percent) when the total is 38 or lower.
Some of the line value has been minimized, but there are a lot of reasons to like Denver. Teams that lost their first game head-to-head against an opponent have historically provided value on the spread in their rematch. That bodes well for the Broncos following their Week 12 loss to the Chiefs.
The pick: Broncos +4
Detroit Lions (+7) at Dallas Cowboys
Riding a five-game win streak, the Lions were one of the hottest teams in football -- and quarterback Matt Stafford was being discussed as a dark horse MVP candidate. But after last week's 17-6 loss to the Giants, Detroit's grasp on the NFC North looks tenuous at best.
The Lions opened as 7.5-point underdogs against the Cowboys, but that line was quickly bet down to 7. Even if you can't get the hook, there's plenty of reason to fade Dallas on Monday night.
Public bettors consistently place wagers based heavily on recent results, and they love taking the league's "elite" teams. Last season, we found that teams with a win percentage of greater than 80 percent struggled to cover the spread in late-season games. That's one reason to fade the 12-2 Cowboys.
Additionally, my research found that home teams that won their previous game but failed to cover have gone just 93-116 ATS (44.5 percent) since 2003. That provides ample reason to fade both Dallas and Green Bay this week. It's also worth noting that Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett has gone 28-16 ATS (63.6 percent) as an underdog but just 21-37 ATS (36.2 percent) as a favorite.
Looking for reasons to like Detroit? Teams playing in their second consecutive road game have gone 524-422 ATS (55.4 percent), and that record improves to 141-99 ATS (58.8 percent) when they're an underdog of at least seven points.
The Cowboys are consistently one of the league's most public teams, and that tendency has been exacerbated by their impressive performance this season. Nonetheless, Dallas will be playing its second Monday night game in as many weeks, and I wouldn't be surprised to see an emotional letdown. This should be a fairly low-scoring game, and I'll gladly take the points in this matchup.
The pick: Lions +7
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
For contrarian bettors, there's never a better opportunity to find value than the week after casual bettors post significant gains. When big favorites and public teams come through for squares, there's an inevitable chain of events that can ultimately be exploited by opportunistic bettors.
At this point, I probably sound like a broken record, but sportsbooks are excellent at predicting where they're going to get action each week, and they shade their lines accordingly. When casual bettors have a huge week, it often confirms preexisting biases and encourages bettors to use their same flawed strategy the following week. These square bettors are now more confident, and now they're <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>equipped with additional funds to further inflate lines -- creating even more value for bettors who dare to go against the grain and take an unpopular viewpoint.
Casual bettors place an inordinate amount of significance on recent events. Using our Bet Labs software, I have shown that contrarian bettors are able to consistently find value by capitalizing on public perception. In the past, I have discussed the value of betting against the public, taking teams after a blowout loss and fading them after a decisive victory in order to capitalize on these shaded lines. For that reason, it's essential for bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news to capitalize on the easily predictable week-to-week overreactions by casual bettors.
Public bettors habitually overreact to blowouts and win streaks, but just as importantly, my research has shown that square bettors tend to place more value on high-powered offenses than stout defenses. Bettors overreact to massive offensive outputs while steering clear of supposedly inept offenses.
Since 2003, teams that scored fewer than 24 points in their previous games have gone 1,863-1,826 ATS (50.5 percent) in the regular season. As we look at increasingly low-scoring games, that win percentage improves steadily. Teams that scored fewer than 17 points have gone 997-961 ATS (50.9 percent); teams that scored fewer than 14 points have gone 726-694 ATS (51.1 percent); teams that scored fewer than 10 points have gone 355-306 ATS (53.7 percent); and teams that scored fewer than seven points have gone 193-161 ATS (54.5 percent).
Bettors are unwilling to take teams that struggle offensively, so sportsbooks have to shade their lines to encourage more balanced action. Even so, casual bettors have been unwilling to back offenses that scored less than a touchdown in the previous matchup. In fact, such teams received the majority of spread bets in just 95 of 354 (26.8 percent) games the past 14 years.
When we focus solely on underdogs, that tendency is magnified. In that same time frame, teams that scored fewer than seven points in their previous game have gone 127-98 ATS (56.4 percent). Over that stretch, the 'dog has received a majority of spread tickets on just 16 occasions!
In previous articles, I have mentioned that there's an edge taking teams following a loss, specifically a blowout loss. Not surprisingly, there are only four examples in which a team scored fewer than seven points and still won, but there were several examples in which the previous game was competitive despite offensive struggles. By eliminating those games and focusing on teams coming off a double-digit loss, our return on investment (ROI) jumps substantially.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Week 16 Betting System[/h]How teams fared week after scoring less than seven points
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored less than seven points in previous game | 193-161 (54.5%) | +22.19 | +6.3% |
| Scored less than seven points as underdog in previous game | 129-98 (56.4%) | +22.45 | +10% |
| Scored less than seven points in previous game, lost by 10+ points | 110-78 (58.5%) | +26.87 | +14.3% |
| Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
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Contrarian bettors habitually take teams after blowout losses, fade "elite" teams and back teams that have failed to win or cover the spread in recent weeks. These tactics might seem counterintuitive, but they allow bettors to exploit public perception and take advantage of artificially inflated lines.
The public tends to push the panic button after a poor performance, but that's particularly true following an atrocious offensive showing. Not only are lines artificially inflated because casual bettors will be looking to fade these bad offensive teams, but there's also a revenge factor as teams attempt to rebound from a humiliating performance.
As David Payne Purdum pointed out in a recent column, casual bettors did very well this past weekend. That information is validated by our public betting percentages, which indicate that teams receiving more than 50 percent of spread tickets went 9-6 ATS and teams receiving more than 60 percent of spread tickets went 6-3 ATS. Casual bettors will have healthy bankrolls this weekend, which could lead to more severely inflated lines.
This week, there are three current system matches, though bettors should track the latest lines and public betting trends on ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page, as this data can fluctuate throughout the week.
In general, we recommend waiting until right before game time to place your bets to ensure that they still fit the system, especially in games with one-sided public betting.
[h=2]Week 16 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday afternoon.
Minnesota entered last week's game against Indianapolis believing it needed to win the final three games of the regular season to earn a playoff berth. The Vikings managed just six points against a Colts team that ranks in the bottom 10 of almost every major defensive category. Although some bettors would view that as ample reason to avoid the Vikings at all cost, I view this as the optimal buy-low opportunity.
The Vikings opened as 6.5-point underdogs, and they've received just 23 percent of spread tickets and 22 percent of spread dollars. Although the line hasn't moved yet, I wouldn't be surprised to see this line reach Vikings +7 before kickoff. That represents fantastic value for contrarian bettors.
The Vikings fit our Week 9 betting system focusing on teams after a blowout loss and our Week 15 system focusing on fading teams such as the Packers in "must-win" games.
There's also reason to like the Vikings in this divisional rivalry. Since 2003, road underdogs have gone 445-378 ATS (54.1 percent) against divisional opponents, including a 63-40 ATS (61.2 percent) record since the start of the 2015 season. This season, underdogs have gone 37-31 ATS (54.4 percent) against divisional opponents and 72-78 ATS (48 percent) in all other games.
One of the unfortunate aspects of publishing so early in the week is that much of the information can change, and it has traditionally been wiser to take favorites early and underdogs late. I would much rather wait until this line hits 7, but nonetheless, I believe it's wise to buy low on Minnesota in this divisional rivalry.
The pick: Vikings +6.5
Despite another astounding performance by their defense, the Broncos' offense managed just three points in Sunday's loss to the Patriots. The loss dropped Denver's record to 8-6 on the season, which means the Broncos likely need to win both of their remaining games to reach the postseason.
The Broncos opened as six-point underdogs at the Westgate Superbook, and according to our public betting trends, they have received 41 percent of early spread tickets. Despite this lack of public support, the Broncos have moved from +6 to +4. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money likes Denver in this AFC West matchup.
This could be one of the more interesting Week 16 matchups, as forecasts call for 20 mph wind speeds with a 70 percent chance of precipitation. Those forecasts have caused oddsmakers to lower their total to 37.5, and historically, road teams have thrived in low-scoring games. Since 2003, visitors have gone 316-279 (53.1 percent) when the total is 38 or lower.
Some of the line value has been minimized, but there are a lot of reasons to like Denver. Teams that lost their first game head-to-head against an opponent have historically provided value on the spread in their rematch. That bodes well for the Broncos following their Week 12 loss to the Chiefs.
The pick: Broncos +4
Riding a five-game win streak, the Lions were one of the hottest teams in football -- and quarterback Matt Stafford was being discussed as a dark horse MVP candidate. But after last week's 17-6 loss to the Giants, Detroit's grasp on the NFC North looks tenuous at best.
The Lions opened as 7.5-point underdogs against the Cowboys, but that line was quickly bet down to 7. Even if you can't get the hook, there's plenty of reason to fade Dallas on Monday night.
Public bettors consistently place wagers based heavily on recent results, and they love taking the league's "elite" teams. Last season, we found that teams with a win percentage of greater than 80 percent struggled to cover the spread in late-season games. That's one reason to fade the 12-2 Cowboys.
Additionally, my research found that home teams that won their previous game but failed to cover have gone just 93-116 ATS (44.5 percent) since 2003. That provides ample reason to fade both Dallas and Green Bay this week. It's also worth noting that Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett has gone 28-16 ATS (63.6 percent) as an underdog but just 21-37 ATS (36.2 percent) as a favorite.
Looking for reasons to like Detroit? Teams playing in their second consecutive road game have gone 524-422 ATS (55.4 percent), and that record improves to 141-99 ATS (58.8 percent) when they're an underdog of at least seven points.
The Cowboys are consistently one of the league's most public teams, and that tendency has been exacerbated by their impressive performance this season. Nonetheless, Dallas will be playing its second Monday night game in as many weeks, and I wouldn't be surprised to see an emotional letdown. This should be a fairly low-scoring game, and I'll gladly take the points in this matchup.
The pick: Lions +7
